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News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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February 9, 2016
15:05 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: The bond market turned mixed on Tuesday, though selling resumed in equities around the globe amid concerns about liquidation and margin calls on bullish tech and financial positions. The plight of Deutsche Bank in particularly kept pressure on European financials after its co-CEO sent out a "rock solid" missive to staff. Then oil sector declines took the lead in the afternoon amid contradictory price forecasts from the IEA (bearish) and EIA (bullish). The 3-year auction was panned ahead of Yellen testimony tomorrow, given overly rich levels to boot. Somehow the Atlanta Fed conjured a Q1 GDP uptick out of the downdraft on December wholesale trade data.
14:30 EDTFed Chair Yellen's Monetary Policy Report will be key for market direction
Fed Chair Yellen's Monetary Policy Report will be key for market direction for the foreseeable future. Note that her prepared remarks will be released at 8:30 ET, after which she'll testify before the House Financial Services Committee (from 10:00 ET). She'll go in front of the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday. The focus will be on the tone of her remarks, whether it's dovish or not. It will also be crucial how she nuances and balances the solid U.S. jobs market against the signs of slowing growth in the manufacturing and service sectors, along with the plunge in global stock markets amid the further erosion in energy prices. An overly optimistic outlook could make her look too Pollyannaish, while a more pessimistic view could panic investors. While she won't front run the March 15, 16 FOMC decision and will reiterate the data dependency of the policy decision, an emphasis on the stresses in the financial markets and on the weakening conditions abroad could take a March hike off the table.
14:05 EDTEquities trying to buck slide in oil
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13:15 EDTTreasury's $24 B 3-year auction was disappointing on every metric
Treasury's $24 B 3-year auction was disappointing on every metric. It looks as though the richness of the issue and the advent of Yellen's testimony tomorrow left potential buyers sidelined. The note tailed to 0.844 % versus the 0.835% wi at the bid deadline (that's 33 bps below the 1.174% award rate from January). Bids totaled $65.8 B for a 2.74 cover, well below the 2.94 last month and the 3.20 average. It's the lowest since July 2009. Yikes. Indirect bidders accepted 41.5%, also less than the prior 62.8% and the 50.3% average. Direct bidders were awarded 15.0% compared to 9.4%, while primary dealers took 43.5% from 27.8%.
13:15 EDTTreasury Action: short yields rebounded
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13:00 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD remains near the bottom
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12:55 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude has posted nearly three-week lows
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12:45 EDTTreasury 3-year auction preview: solid demand is expected
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12:25 EDTTreasury Action: uber dove Kocherlakota says FOMC should go negative
Treasury Action: uber dove Kocherlakota says FOMC should go negative on rates. It would be a "daring, but appropriate" move that would speed up the attainment of a 2% inflation rate, he said. He broached that idea back in October. While the Fed could discuss negative rates at its March meeting, especially after the BoJ's surprise move, analysts suspect adopting such a policy would be a very last-ditch effort to address a deep contraction in the economy. At this point analysts'd view any public comments more as lip-service to indicate there are more tools in the stimulus bag that could be used. However, it's not obvious to us that negative rates would be a solution, especially as ZIRP hasn't had much impact. Analysts also believe negative rates could be too detrimental to the money markets, forcing MMMFs to operate with a loss, reduce fees, charge customers, or close. It could also cause problems with Treasury auctions (Treasury is prohibited from selling bills above par). Unintended consequences of negative rates (especially breaking the buck), including crimping liquidity during an adjustment period, probably aren't worth the benefits.
11:45 EDTTreasury's $55 B 4-week bill sale was solid
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11:25 EDTAtlanta Fed's GDPNow Q1 estimate was raised again to 2.5%
Atlanta Fed's GDPNow Q1 estimate was raised again to 2.5% from 2.2% previously thanks to the wholesale trade report, actually above the median Blue Chip economist forecast of 2.3% for a change: "The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2016 is 2.5 percent on February 9, up from 2.2 percent on February 5. After this morning's wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the forecast of the first-quarter change in private inventory investment in 2009 dollars increased from -$6 billion to $4 billion." In contrast, at Action analysts see downside risk from our 1.8% forecast for Q1 growth. for more.
11:10 EDTU.S. VIX equity volatility nudged back up 5.3% to 27.38
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10:25 EDTThe U.S. wholesale trade report undershot estimates
The U.S. wholesale trade report undershot estimates with December sales and inventory declines that followed larger November drops that were exacerbated with downward revisions, leaving a sustained climb in the inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio to a lofty 1.32 expansion-high. Analysts still expect a downward Q4 GDP growth bump to 0.5% from 0.7%, while the I/S rise signals downside risk for our 1.8% Q1 GDP forecast. The Q4 GDP growth hit reflects a $6 B subtraction from wholesale inventories that accompanies a $6 B hit for factory inventories and an $8 B downward bump in construction, but a partially offsetting $11 B boost in net exports. Our 1.8% Q1 GDP growth estimate assumes a $22 B inventory subtraction that leaves a $34 B accumulation rate, following a $28.9 (was $16.9) B Q4 subtraction and a larger $28.0 B hit in Q3 -- as the inventory overbuild through Q2 of 2015 unwinds to a sustainable rate of climb by Q1. Analysts expect a 0.1% December business inventory rise that follows a 0.2% drop in November. Today's 0.1% drop for wholesale inventories accompanies a 0.2% rise for factories and an assumed 0.3% rise for retailers. The overall business I/S ratio should rise to a 1.39 expansion-high in December from a 1.38 prior expansion-high in October and November.
10:20 EDTFX Action: The dollar shrugged off
FX Action: The dollar shrugged off the in-line dip in wholesale sales data, though had been on the rise versus the yen in particular, as Wall Street turned opening losses into gains. USD-JPY is up better than 100 points from N.Y. session lows of 114.32, while EUR-USD has traded back into 1.1265, after touching 1.1300 earlier.
10:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields snapped higher
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10:15 EDTU.S. JOLTS showed job openings surged 261k in December to 5,607k
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10:10 EDTU.S. wholesale trade preview:
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10:10 EDTU.S. wholesale sales dipped 0.3% in December, with inventories off 0.1%
U.S. wholesale sales dipped 0.3% in December, with inventories off 0.1%. November's 1.0% drop in sales was revised lower to -1.3%. The 0.3% slip in November inventories was bumped down to -0.4%. Sales weakness was concentrated in petroleum (-4.5%) and groceries (-1.1%). The inventory-sales ratio was steady at 1.32, holding at the cycle high, and is the highest since mid 2009. Though not surprising, the weaker than expected data are disappointing and could weigh further on GDP forecasts.
10:03 EDTJOLTS Job Openings data reported
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10:01 EDTWholesale Trade Inventories data reported
December Wholesale Trade Inventories down -0.1% vs consensus of -0.1% for the month
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