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Stock Market & Financial Investment News

News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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July 31, 2014
09:40 EDTU.S. Chicago PMI preview:
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09:20 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: a large package
Euro$ interest rate options: a large package included the sale of 20k in Short March 87/90 call spreads and Green October 72/73 put spreads for Green October 82 calls. There was also a bullish sale of 10k in March 96 puts and bearish purchase of 5k in Green March 71/73 put spreads vs sale of 81 calls. Underlying euro$ futures have resumed their slide, which began in earnest after the jump in Q2 GDP yesterday and was compounded by fimer ECI today. The September contract is flat at 99.76, but the deferreds are 1-8 ticks lower.
09:10 EDTFed Policy Outlook: wages are an important component of Yellen's dashboard
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09:00 EDTThe 23k U.S. initial claims bounce to a still-lean 302k
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09:00 EDTU.S. equities are battoning down the hatches
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08:55 EDTSenate Commerce, Science & Transportation Committee holds a hearing
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08:50 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD rallied to a six-week high
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08:50 EDTThe 0.7% U.S. Q1 ECI surge sharply beat estimates
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08:47 EDTHouse Oversight & Government Reform Committee to hold a hearing
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar moved higher
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08:45 EDTU.S. employment cost index surged 0.7% in Q2
U.S. employment cost index surged 0.7% in Q2 after a 0.3% gain in Q1. Wages and salaries increased 0.6%, versus the prior 0.3%. Both of those Q2 gains were the largest since Q3 2008. Benefit costs climbed 1.0% versus Q1's 0.4%. Overall, wage gains have been modest for the past several years, thanks to the weakness in the labor market, and that's been a problem for the FOMC. The surge in ECI and pick up in wages will add to the markets' fears of Fed rate hikes sooner than priced in.
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields ramped higher still
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08:44 EDTSenate Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs Committee to hold a hearing
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08:40 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims rose 23k to 302k in the week ended July 26
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08:34 EDTFutures continue to suggest lower start for market
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08:32 EDTJobless Claims data reported
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08:20 EDTFed funds opened at 0.06% as the month comes to a close
Fed funds opened at 0.06% as the month comes to a close. Yesterday's rate ranged from 0.05% to 0.3125% with a 0.09% effective. Look for an increase in volatility on month-end. The current 3-year note trades with the lowest rate in the repo market at -0.60% following this week's supply.
08:20 EDTU.S. ECI Preview:
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08:20 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims preview:
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08:15 EDTU.S. Challenger reported announced layoffs rose 15.5k in July to 46.9k
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08:10 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed
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07:55 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is down 67 cents
Oil Action: NYMEX crude is down 67 cents at $99.60/bbl, as OPEC production and the dollar strengthens, and as U.S. demand remains relatively soft. The contract sound support ahead of $99.00, before rallying to current levels. Sources expect fund offers to materialize into the $100 mark.
07:54 EDTBernstein restaurant analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
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07:35 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:24 EDTFutures lower as investors look to jobs data
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07:16 EDTBloomberg Government to hold a discussion
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07:15 EDTFDA Gastroenterology and Urology Devices Panel to hold a meeting
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07:15 EDTFX Update: The dollar extended post-GDP gains
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06:17 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for July 31
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05:49 EDTAugust front month equity options last day to trade August 15, 2014
02:10 EDTFX Update: The dust settled after yesterday's USD surge
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July 30, 2014
16:36 EDTWeek of 8/8 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30
16:15 EDTTreasury Closing Summary: yields were jolted sharply higher by data
Treasury Closing Summary: yields were jolted sharply higher by data and not the FOMC Wednesday as Q2 GDP was the star of the session. Q2 GDP growth rebounded 4.0%, which was as unexpected as the 2.9% plunge that was reported in the third release for Q1. The hurt to the bond market was intensified given the impending FOMC announcement. But in keeping with Yellen's dovish leanings, the Fed indicated it is in no rush to begin rate lift-off. Rates remained elevated, but Wall Street managed to pare its losses.
16:05 EDTFOMC Provides Two-handed Guidance:
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15:50 EDTCanada GDP Preview
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15:30 EDTU.S. weekly jobless claims preview:
U.S. weekly jobless claims preview: U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ended July 26 are expected to see an 18k increase to 302k (median 302k). The 19k U.S. initial claims plunge to a 284k cycle-low in the third week of July followed a 2k decline to 303k (was 302k) in the BLS survey week to leave a big 32k three-week drop from 316k in late-June, as strength in truck assemblies through the retooling period has held down claims and should lift most July factory sector measures.
15:30 EDTU.S. ECI Preview:
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15:10 EDTFed funds futures are paring earlier losses
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14:55 EDTFOMC takeaway: the Fed is inching closer to normalization
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14:25 EDTTreasury Action: yields knee-jerked higher before cooling off
Treasury Action: yields knee-jerked higher before cooling off following the Fed's statement, which was sort of self-canceling after continuing to gripe about the "underutilization of labor resources," while at the same time upgrading inflation to "somewhat closer to the longer-run objective." Moreover, the Fed downgraded risk of inflation persisting below 2% in the second paragraph as well. On balance, that's a bit more hawkish on the inflation front, but the 2-year yield probed 0.59% then eased to 0.57% and the 10-year yield tested 2.57% before pulling back to 2.53%. Indeed, hawk Plosser objected to the inclusion of "considerable period" for low rates.
14:25 EDTFX Action: The dollar initially rallied
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14:21 EDTFed lowers asset purchases, says inflation moving towards goal
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14:15 EDTG7 says ready to 'intensify costs' to Russia if Ukraine policy not changed
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14:15 EDTFOMC cut QE $10 B as expected and there were no big surprises
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14:02 EDTFOMC Meeting Announcement Federal Funds Rate data reported
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14:02 EDTJune Business Inventories to be released at 10:00
14:02 EDTJuly Retail Sales to be released at 08:30
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14:02 EDTWeek of 8/8 MBA Purchase Applications to be released at 07:00
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14:01 EDTFed says likelihood of inflation below 2% 'diminished somewhat'
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14:00 EDTFed lowers monthly bond buying by $10B, keeps rates unchanged
14:00 EDTFOMC T-Minus 10 and counting: risk is the Fed upgrades its outlook
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13:35 EDTFX Action: The dollar is largely in a holding pattern
FX Action: The dollar is largely in a holding pattern into the FOMC announcement, remaining firm overall. EUR-USD has moved up 10 points or so to 1.3380, on reported light profit taking, while USD-JPY has retreated slightly after touching nearly three-month highs of 103.01. The improvement in GDP, along with firmer yields should keep a floor under the greenback for now, though it might be the FOMC statement that gets the last word.
13:15 EDTTreasury's $29 B 7-year auction was lukewarm
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13:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields backed up to highs
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12:50 EDTTreasury 7-year auction preview:
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12:20 EDTTreasury Action: the one-two punch from the morning's data
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11:45 EDTTreasury's $15 B 2-year FRN was on the soft side,
Treasury's $15 B 2-year FRN was on the soft side, probably hurt by worries that the strength in the GDP report could prompt a Fed tightening sooner rather than later. The issue priced at a 0.07% discount margin, fractionally above the 0.069% for the smaller $13 B June reopening. There were nearly $61.4 B in bids for a 4.09 cover, down well below June's 4.43, as well as the 4.64 for the April new issue. Indirect bidders took 46.7%, better than the 40.1% reopening and the 34.4% new issue.
11:30 EDTTreasury Option Action: bullish positioning in the belly
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11:15 EDTArgentina debt talks were extended into Wednesday
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11:05 EDTTreasury 7-year auction outlook: Treasury sells $29 B in notes
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10:58 EDTCBOE Interest Rate 5 Year Note up into Fed concluding two day meeting
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10:45 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD is at levels last seen on June 10
FX Action: USD-CAD is at levels last seen on June 10, peaking at 1.0906. Domestic name buyers were noted from 1.0895, with stops kicking in at 1.0900. June highs of 1.0960 are on the radar screen now, with resistance seen from 1.0940-60.
10:30 EDTCrude Inventories for the week of July 25
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10:30 EDTToday's U.S. reports
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10:25 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: mostly bearish positioning
Euro$ interest rate options: mostly bearish positioning fit with the upswing in GDP and large 150k bearish bet on September 2014s reported earlier in underlying futures. These included a purchase of 23k in a "put diagonals" in favor of Green August 80 puts vs Green September 77 puts. Also a block trade of 20k in Green December 73/76 put spreads purchased against Green December 81/83 call spreads. In addition, there was a purchase of 5k in June 92/95 put 1x2s and bullish sale of 5k in Blue December 70 puts outright. The September 2014 contract remains a tick lower at 99.755, while deferreds are off by as much as 9.5-ticks now.
10:10 EDTPIMCO's Gross released his August investment Outlook
PIMCO's Gross released his August investment Outlook entitled "Goodnight Vietnam" in which he continues to see rates staying low "due to a lack of aggregate demand and a surfeit of supply." Gross expects capital gains from "almost all asset classes are approaching dusk. Low but relativley dependable income will be the market's future driver." In terms of the curve, "PIMCO has indexed durations, a belief in a flattening but still historically steeper global curve, and credit positions that are mildly overweight." Moreover, he sees the Old Neutral policy rates of 2-4% nominal as out, while New Neutral rates of 0-2% are in given the lack of global demand and rates not rebounding as far as the markets expect. That implies a strategy of high quality Treasury and corporate bonds being "fairly priced, but not cheap;" yield curve flattening; tight credit spreads and the Fed on hold to mid-2015; hiking to 2% by 2017; owning some "bonds and an average proportion of stocks too."
09:45 EDTU.S. Q2 GDP growth beat estimates
U.S. Q2 GDP growth beat estimates thanks to upside surprises across all the major components except trade. Analysts saw a firm 2.3% Q2 growth clip for final sales with a big $58.2 B Q2 inventory boost, though from a weaker Q1 level that left an expected $93.4 B Q2 accumulation rate. Analysts saw a big 5.9% growth pace for fixed investment that was lifted by a 5.3% rise for nonresidential construction despite an expected decline, a firm but expected 7.0% rise for equipment spending, and a 7.5% growth clip for residential construction. Consumption grew at a modestly stronger than expected 2.5% clip, while net exports subtracted the largely expected $23.1 B. Our Q3 GDP growth forecast will likely remain at 3.5% until analysts can review Friday's wide array of reports that will include the June personal income data with annual revisions.
09:38 EDTStrong GDP data lifts market at open
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09:30 EDTThe pop in Q2 GDP growth to 4.0%
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09:25 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures: a massive fire sale
Euro$ interest rate futures: a massive fire sale started late yesterday and has tallied up to 150k in sales of September 2014 contracts so far today. Sources are not sure if this a new bearish short position or a liquidation of previously long position, but are awaiting open interest data at around 11 ET for further clues. The GDP rebound in Q2 has put the Fed meeting in a different light and tilts towards hawkish case and the rate market appears to be reacting accordingly, with the September 2014 contract a tick lower at 99.755 and the deferreds cascading 1-8.5 ticks lower out the back.
09:20 EDTSenate Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs Committee to hold a hearing
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09:16 EDTHouse Foreign Affairs Committee to hold a hearing
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09:15 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD ramped up to 1.0893
FX Action: USD-CAD ramped up to 1.0893 highs after the mix of stronger U.S. GDP, and cooler Canadian IPPI data. In addition, U.S./Canadian yield spreads have moved to 2014 highs, in favor of the USD. The June 18 high of 1.0899 remains in place as initial resistance, while stops are noted over the figure.
09:10 EDTU.S. equities extended their rally
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09:10 EDTFed Policy Outlook: the FOMC has begun today's meeting.
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09:07 EDTHouse Financial Services Committee to hold a hearing
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09:04 EDTThe SEC to hold a closed commission meeting
Closed Commission Meeting to discuss institution and settlement of injunctive actions, the institution and settlement of administrative proceedings and other matters relating to enforcement proceedings will be held at SEC Washington, D.C. offices on July 30 at 2 pm.
08:55 EDTFX Action: The dollar rallied broadly
FX Action: The dollar rallied broadly after the much stronger GDP outcome, taking EUR-USD to fresh trend lows of 1.3371, and USD-JPY to highs of 102.50. Equity futures rallied, as yields advanced as well. Initial euro support is seen at 1.3360-40, with the November lows of 1.3320-00 the next downside target from there. USD-JPY meanwhile, appears set to test June highs inside the 102.60-80 region.
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields shot higher
Treasury Action: yields shot higher after the expected Q2 GDP rebound came in much firmer than forecast at 4.0% and the big drop in Q1 due to the winter vortex was revised up substantively to -2.1% from -2.9% previously. That drove the 10-year yield back up over 2.51% from under 2.47% following the tepid ADP release. The 2s-10s spread unwound some recent flattening and traded back to +194 bp from +192 bp. This will give Fed hawks a little more ammo and could on the margin effect the tone of the Fed statement later.
08:45 EDTU.S. GDP growth rebounded 4.0% in Q2
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08:35 EDTFutures remain higher following economic reports
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08:30 EDTTreasury Action: yields pulled back from highs
Treasury Action: yields pulled back from highs set earlier ahead of the ADP report, which came in below elevated expectations and was closer to our forecast. The T-note yield had been pushing back above 2.485% before dropping a basis point down to 2.475%, compared to lows of 2.465% in Asia. The 2s-10s spread is consolidating near +192 bp, while the 5s-30s spread near +151 bp.
08:30 EDTFX Action: The dollar pulled back briefly
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08:30 EDTThe 218k July ADP rise
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08:25 EDTU.S. ADP reported private payrolls climbed 218k in July
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07:54 EDTSenate Commerce, Science & Transportation Committee holds a hearing
The Committee holds a hearing entitled, "Cramming on Wireless Phone Bills: A Review of Consumer Protection Practices and Gaps" with FTC Commissioner McSweeny, Acting Chief LeBlanc of the FCC and SVP Altschul of CTIA - The Wireless Association on July 30 at 2:30 pm. Webcast Link
07:45 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:45 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index sank 2.2%
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07:39 EDTHouse Committee on Agriculture to hold a hearing
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07:27 EDTFutures higher amidst earnings barrage
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07:26 EDTCredit Suisse to hold a conference
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07:25 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries dipped slightly lower overnight
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07:10 EDTFX Update: The dollar extended recent gains
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07:07 EDTMBA Purchase Applications Composite Index data reported
Week of 7/25 MBA Purchase Applications Composite Index down -2.2% for the week
05:55 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for July 30
Globex S&P futures are recently up 4.70 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 0.18%, DAX 0.00%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $101.38, natural gas down 0.08%, gold at $1300 an ounce, and copper down 0.26%.
05:45 EDTAugust front month equity options last day to trade August 15, 2014
04:25 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY logged a fresh three-week high at 102.18
FX Action: USD-JPY logged a fresh three-week high at 102.18, breaching yesterday's peak by a coule of pips. Perky short-end U.S. Treasury yields ahead of today's FOMC announcement, which analysts don't expect to bring a major revelation but should affirm a further $10 B worth of QE tapering, has helped underpin the dollar. A 3.3% dip in preliminary Japan industrial production for June, meanwhile, saw the Nikkei stock index underperform in Asia today, and the data could add to pressure on the BoJ to implement further stimulus. An MS research piece this week argued that the BoJ may be obliged to do this as the likelihood of achieving the 2.0% inflation target is declining. This backdrop should keep the bias to the upside in USD-JPY. Resistance at 102.26 (Jul-3 high).
04:15 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY logged a fresh three-week high at 102.18
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02:10 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD edged out a fresh low
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July 29, 2014
20:35 EDTJapan's industrial production fell a preliminary 3.3% in June
Japan's industrial production fell a preliminary 3.3% in June (m/m, sa), a larger drop than anticipated after improving 0.7% in May. Industrial production grew at a 3.2% y/y rate in June, also undershooting projections, after the 1.0% y/y gain in May. The trade ministry anticipates output growth of 2.5% m/m in July and 1.1% in August. USD-JPY is steady near 102.1 after holding just below 102.0 during North American hours. USD-JPY had been trading on a 101 handle for over two weeks. Analysts favor the topside over the coming sessions.
19:51 EDTJuly Treasury Budget to be released at 14:00
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16:07 EDTWeek of 8/9 Redbook to be released at 08:55
16:07 EDTWeek of 8/9 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales to be released at 07:45
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15:35 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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15:33 EDTThree Russian banks added to U.S. sanctions list
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14:35 EDTCanada Industrial Product Price Index Preview
Canada Industrial Product Price Index Preview: Analysts expect the IPPI, due Wednesday, to fall 0.3% in June after the 0.5% decline in May. Energy prices rose in June, but to a far smaller degree than in recent months. And the CAD gained further value versus the U.S. dollar. The RMPI is projected to rise 0.5% m/m in June. An as expected report should be taken in stride, as inflation data was pushed to the back-burner by the BoC in July's MPR, with the focus now on the growth outlook.
14:20 EDTTreasury Action: debt managers sell $29 B in 7-year notes Thursday
Treasury Action: debt managers sell $29 B in 7-year notes Thursday which will finish off this week's coupon auctions. There's also a $15 B 2-year FRN offering (11:30 ET). The wi 7-year richened over 2 bps to 2.15% following the successful 5-year auction. Month-end and geopolitical concerns could provide support. There's some speculation, though, that some buyers will remain sidelined ahead of the FOMC. Last month's sale was disappointing as the note tailed out to 2.152% and saw a low 2.44 cover and a 40.6% indirect bid.
13:50 EDTFed Policy Outlook: analysts don't expect any surprises from the FOMC
Fed Policy Outlook: analysts don't expect any surprises from the FOMC with tomorrow's policy announcement (there isn't a press conference or SEP). Another $10 B cut in QE purchases is universally expected, with the Fed expected to finish its buybacks in October with a $15 B reduction. Though there is likely to be a hot debate over the policy stance and the timing and tactics behind the exit, as suggested by Fed hawk Fisher's dissenting Op-Ed in the Wall Street Journal, the policy statement won't give anything away in terms of explicit strategies or rate lift-off timing. Indeed, about the only material change in the statement relative to June's should be a slight upgrade to the economic outlook and labor market conditions, while the statement on inflation should reiterate prices are running below target but longer-term expectations have remained stable. Risk is that the Fed starts to adjust its forward guidance and the "considerable time" phrase with respect to keeping rates low. And not now, but soon, the FOMC will have to start signaling how it will handle its portfolio. The markets are also seeing increased risk the Fed tightens sooner and more aggressively than is currently foreseen but there isn't likely to be any such indication here. Analysts are still forecasting the first rate hike will take place in Q2. Many other Fedwatchers have been pushing up their forecasts from 2H. And given the improvement in the labor market, there is risk for a hike as early as the March 17, 18, 2015 meeting, especially as it includes a press conference.
13:35 EDTEuro$ interst rate options: a few larger trades
Euro$ interst rate options: a few larger trades included a 30k block trade on Red December (2015) 91 calls, thought to be a bearish sale according to sources. There was also a "large roll" purchase of 20k in Short September 91 calls vs sale of Short August 91 calls. Selling volatility was a 1.5k sale of 88 straddles on Short December contracts. Euro$s remain defensive as the FOMC dissects the charts and spreadsheets today.
13:15 EDTTreasury's $35 B 5-year sale was solid and better than expected
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13:15 EDTTreasury Action: intermediate yields sank
Treasury Action: intermediate yields sank after the solid takedown on the 5-year issue and its various components, leaving the current 5-year yield back down below 1.70% compared to pre-auction levels near 1.714% and the award rate of 1.72% on the new notes.
12:45 EDTTreasury 5-year auction preview: a lukewarm sale is generally expected
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12:05 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD continues to climb
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11:50 EDTTreasury's $40 B 4-week bill auction was very well received
Treasury's $40 B 4-week bill auction was very well received. The upsized bill (increased by $5 B versus last week) was awarded right on the screws at 0.03%. Bids totaled $163.6 B for a 4.12 cover, well above the prior 3.94, especially considering the increased size. Indirect bidders took 27.1%, more than three times last week's poor 8.3% (the lowest since February) and better than the 18.3% average.
11:45 EDTArgentina's debt negotiation team arrived at NY offices
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11:30 EDTTreasury 5-year auction outlook: the wi 5-year is 1 bp richer at 1.715%
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11:30 EDTU.S. equities shifted right back down to lows
U.S. equities shifted right back down to lows following the latest EU sanctions against Russia, led by the tech sector reversal. The news gave USD-JPY a brief knock back below 102.00 again, but some resiliency in stock and FX terms is now emerging. The T-note yield also reversed back below 2.47% from post-consumer confidence highs of 2.476%.
11:15 EDTNY Fed bought $0.370 B in notes
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10:45 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: mostly bearish positioning
Euro$ interest rate options: mostly bearish positioning dominated ahead of tomorrow's FOMC decision. Among them were a purchase of 3k in December 96/97 put spreads, 3k in Green December 76/70 put spreads, 2k in Short September 88/90/91 put butterflies, 1k in Short September 87/90 put 1x2s and 1k in Short September 90/92 put 1x2s. The September 2014 contract is a half-tick lower near 99.76, while the nearby deferreds are 0.5-ticks lower and far deferreds up to 4-ticks firmer in keeping with the curve flattening trend.
10:35 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying $0.30 B to $0.45 B in notes
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10:25 EDTThe July U.S. consumer confidence rise to an 90.9 new cycle-high
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10:15 EDTU.S. consumer confidence climbed to 90.9 in July
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10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar edged higher
FX Action: The dollar edged higher following the much stronger confidence data, taking USD-JPY toward 102.10, near its intraday highs again, and EUR-USD down fractionally toward 1.3410. Equities are modestly higher, while yields stay pressured.
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields backed up from lows
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10:03 EDTConsumer Confidence data reported
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10:00 EDTU.S. Consumer Confidence Preview
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09:48 EDTMarket opens slightly higher as Fed watch begins
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09:25 EDTTreasury Action: various theories for the safety bid
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09:18 EDTBarclays industrials analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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09:14 EDTGoldman credit strategy analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Analysts provides a weekly Credit Strategy update on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on July 29 at 11 am.
09:11 EDTCitigroup credit market analysts to hold an analyst/industry conference call
Analysts provide a weekly Credit Market update on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on July 29 at 10:30 am.
09:10 EDTU.S. Case Shiller home price index rose 1.14% to 170.64 for the May 20-City
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09:01 EDTS&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index data reported.
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09:00 EDTTreasury Action: some disconnect in the markets
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08:55 EDTRedbook Store Sales data reported
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08:50 EDTU.S. S&P Case-Shiller home price index preview:
U.S. S&P Case-Shiller home price index preview: the home price index is forecast to rise 1.5% to 171.4 in May from 168.7 in April. For more detail, see our new home sales page.
08:45 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY touched 102.12
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08:35 EDTU.S. equities are back on the rise
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08:35 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has rallied to five-week highs
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08:20 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is down 60 cents
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08:10 EDTFed funds opened at 0.09%
Fed funds opened at 0.09%. The rate ranged from 0.04% to 0.31250% on Monday with a 0.09% effective. The current 2-year note is the most special in the repo market at -2.35%. The 3-year is next at -1.90%.
08:00 EDTU.S. ICSC Goldman Sachs chain store sales index rebounded 0.2%
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07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are mixed
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07:48 EDTSenate Commerce, Science & Transportation Committee holds a hearing
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07:47 EDTHouse Energy & Commerce Committee to hold a hearing
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07:45 EDTICSC-Goldman Store Sales data reported
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07:44 EDTSenate Finance Committee to hold a hearing
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07:40 EDTHouse Oversight & Government Reform Committee to hold a hearing
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07:33 EDTHouse Energy & Commerce Committee to hold a hearing
The Energy & Power Subcommittee holds a hearing entitled, "FERC Perspectives: Questions Concerning EPA's Proposed Clean Power Plan and other Grid Reliability Challenges" with FERC Acting Chairman LaFleur on July 29 at 10 am. Webcast Link
07:32 EDTHouse Agriculture Committee to hold a hearing
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07:30 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:22 EDTEarly futures action suggests higher open
U.S. equity futures are suggesting a slightly higher open for the broader market. Another round of solid earnings reports last night and the stabilization of the Russian stock market have made investors more comfortable about buying U.S. stocks. Investors will be watching the Case/Shiller Home Price report and the consumer confidence reading for additional clues about the economy.
07:18 EDTJPMorgan to hold a conference
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07:17 EDTSociety for the Study of Ingestive Behavior to hold annual meeting
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07:05 EDTFX Update: The dollar is moderately firmer
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05:51 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for July 29
Globex S&P futures are recently down 2.50 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 0.57%, DAX up 0.04%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $101.76, natural gas down 0.29%, gold at $1310 an ounce, and copper down 0.28%.
05:48 EDTAugust front month equity options last day to trade August 15, 2014
02:15 EDTFX Update: The dollar is moderately firmer
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July 28, 2014
19:50 EDTJapan's unemployment rate rose to 3.6%
Japan's unemployment rate rose to 3.6% in June from 3.5% prior. The Job Offers ratio rose to 1.0 in June from 1.09 in May. Analysts continue to fall well-below the narrow 4.2% to 4.3% range seen since June of 2012. The cycle high was 5.5% in July of 2009. Also released, household real PCE fell 3.0% in June (y/y) on a "real" or price adjusted basis after the 8.8% decrease in May. Recent gains showed promise before the reversals seen since April.
18:15 EDTMoody's raises Colombia rating to Baa2 from Baa3; Outlook stable
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15:15 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:10 EDTU.S. equities are back near Friday closing levels
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13:30 EDTTreasury Option Action: a bullish trade
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13:15 EDTTreasury Action: short yields popped up
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13:15 EDTTreasury's $29 B 2-year sale was average, plain vanilla
Treasury's $29 B 2-year sale was average, plain vanilla. The note stopped at 0.544%, barely through the 0.545% at the bid deadline. Though it was the cheapest level since 2009, bidding was lackluster. There were $93.4 B in bids for a 3.22 cover, little changed from last month's 3.23 and a little below the 3.36 average, despite the $1 B cut in size. Indirect bidders took 27.0% compared to June's 23.1% and a 26.6% average. Direct bidders took 14.3% versus 23.3% previously, while primary dealers were awarded 58.7% versus June's 53.6%.
12:50 EDTTreasury 2-year auction preview: traders are uncertain about demand
Treasury 2-year auction preview: traders are uncertain about demand at today's offering given the balance of pros and cons. There is some concern that despite many positives underpinning the offering, the advent of the FOMC and the increased talk that the Fed might have to pull the trigger sooner than expected and subsequently hike rates more aggressively than the gradualist approach policymakers currently anticipate, could leave some buyers sidelined. Nevertheless, sources like the back up in yield and the cheapness on the curve. The wi has edged up to 0.545% which would be the highest stop since May 2011. The 2s-10s is the narrowest its been since 2009. Geopolitical risks are also high and favor some flight to quality. Plus, new cash needs are very low this week with very large redemptions on tap that should underpin reinvestment demand. And though the note shouldn't benefit directly from the month-end flows, duration buying could support the entire curve. June's sale stopped at 0.511% and garnered a 3.23 cover (3.36 average) and a 23.1% indirect bid (26.6% average).
12:30 EDTU.S. corporate debt: a 3-trancher from Tyco
U.S. corporate debt: a 3-trancher from Tyco topped the investment grade calendar with 2-, 5- and 10-year legs, while Credit Suisse has a 2-trancher of 3- and 5-year maturities. Also on tap are a $823 M 12-year from United Airlines, a 3-year from PNC, $500 M 10-year from EQT and $400 M 10-year by Air Products. Several intermediate high yield offerings are on the docket as well, including names such Jupiter, NRG, Paperworks, Rooster Energy, United Airlines, etc. Focus will remain on the $29 B 2-year auction, though any hedging and unwinds on the larger corporate deals could impact the price action near-term.
11:50 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has found initial support
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11:45 EDTTreasury's $51 B 3- and 6-month bill sale was strong
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11:10 EDTTreasury Option Action: bearish positioning vs 10s
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11:10 EDTTreasury announced an upsized $40 B 4-week bill sale
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11:10 EDTNY Fed bought $1.067 B in bonds
NY Fed bought $1.067 B in bonds dated from August 15, 2039 through February 15, 2043. The Street offered $5.483 B. The long bond continues to outperform on the curve in quiet trading.
11:10 EDTTreasury 2-year note outlook: Treasury sells $29 B in 2-year notes today
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10:45 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: the NY Fed is buying $1 B to $1.25 B in bonds
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10:40 EDTA Boost to U.S. Jobs from Truck Assemblies:
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10:30 EDTTreasury Action: yields rotated to lows
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10:30 EDTFX Action: The dollar has been relatively steady
FX Action: The dollar has been relatively steady since the release of PMI and pending home sales data, with EUR-USD static between 1.3430-40, and USD-JPY looking heavier, through not straying far from the 101.80 level. Given the heavy event schedule later in the week, analysts may be in for a slow couple of FX session. The FOMC meeting, the first look at Q2 GDP, along with nonfarm payrolls for July are all on tap this week, so current conditions may well be the calm before the storm.
10:10 EDTU.S. pending home sales index dropped 1.1% to 102.7 in June
U.S. pending home sales index dropped 1.1% to 102.7 in June after rising 6.0% to 103.8 in May (revised from 103.9). Regionally, pending sales declined in the Northeast and the South by over 2%, while the Midwest saw a 1.2% increase, with the West edging up 0.2%. Compared to last June, the sales index is down 4.5% y/y versus -6.9% y/y. The annual sales pace has contracted since October, though the rate has been slowing since April.
10:01 EDTPending Home Sales Index data reported
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10:00 EDTU.S. Markit services PMI held at 61.0 for the preliminary July print
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09:50 EDTU.S. NAR pending home sales preview:
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09:41 EDTMarket has quiet open amid more M&A deals
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09:30 EDTFed Policy Outlook: analysts don't expect any major revelations from the FOMC
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09:15 EDTDallas Fed hawk Fisher warned against staying "too loose, too long"
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08:50 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is down 72 cents
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08:40 EDTU.S. Chamber of Commerce to hold a discussion
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce holds a discussion on "Data and Transportation," in a meeting being held in Washington, D.C. on July 28 at 12 pm.
08:40 EDTU.S. equities are mildly lower
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08:20 EDTFed funds opened at 0.09%
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07:50 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed to lower
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07:28 EDTAmerican Society of Transplant Surgeons to hold a conference
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07:25 EDTMarket to try to get back to winning ways
U.S. equity futures are trading slightly below fair value to start the week. The market will try to get back to its winning ways after stocks declined on Friday, partly due to geopolitical events in Russia and Israel, some earnings disappointments at the end of last week, and a downgrade of Goldman Sachs' short-term outlook on equities. In addition to another heavy week of earnings, investors will be gearing up for the monthly jobs report that is scheduled to be released on Friday. Pending home sales and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report are scheduled to be released today
07:15 EDTSociety of NeuroInterventional Surgery to hold annual meeting
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06:55 EDTFX Update: Narrow ranges have prevailed
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05:59 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for July 28
Globex S&P futures are recently down 1.10 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 0.46%, DAX down 0.02%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $101.50, natural gas down 0.13%, gold at $1306 an ounce, and copper up 0.08%.
05:51 EDTAugust front month equity options last day to trade August 15, 2014
03:10 EDTFX Update: Narrow ranges have prevailed
FX Update: Narrow ranges have prevailed among the main currencies in early week trade ahead of a number of central bank policy meetings and a flood of key data releases due this week. EUR-USD flat-lined around 1.3430-35, while USD-JPY traded fractionally higher to the 101.85 area. AUD-USD also saw quite traded, failing to sustain levels above 0.9400, subsequently dipping to the 0.9385-95 area. Stock markets in Asia were bullish, with the MSCI region gauge set for its highest close since 2008.
July 27, 2014
18:02 EDTAugust Treasury Refunding Announcement to be released at 08:30
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14:56 EDTGaza truce breaks down, WSJ says
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July 25, 2014
20:28 EDTConsumer Sentiment Index to be reported at 09:55
July Consumer Sentiment Index will be reported at 09:55 . Current consensus is 81.5
20:28 EDTEmployment Situation Nonfarm Payrolls to be reported at 08:30
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20:28 EDTPersonal Income and Outlays Consumer Spending to be reported at 08:30
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20:28 EDTChicago PMI Business Barometer Index to be reported at 09:45
July Chicago PMI Business Barometer Index will be reported at 09:45 . Current consensus is 63.2
20:28 EDTEmployment Cost Index ECI to be reported at 08:30
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20:28 EDTReal GDP to be reported at 08:30
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20:28 EDTADP Employment Report employment to be reported at 08:15
July ADP Employment Report employment will be reported at 08:15 . Current consensus is 235,000
19:04 EDTJune Wholesale Trade to be released at 10:00
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19:04 EDT Productivity and Costs to be released at 08:30
15:25 EDTTreasury Market Outlook:
Treasury Market Outlook: A combination of European capital flight and corporate earnings misses put a bid back in bonds, with tensions heating up between Ukraine and Russia again and Amazon as well as Visa coming up shy. The as-expected rise in durable goods orders left little lasting imprint, with much of the focus across the Pond. WSJ's Hilsenrath downplayed next week's FOMC decision, but pointed ahead to "big decisions" on the statement, reinvestment and the reverse repo. PIMCO's Gross pointed to strains across the globe helping to drive down Treasury yields.
14:10 EDTAction Economics Survey Results:
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13:50 EDTTreasury Action: no real concession have been made ahead of upcoming supply
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13:09 EDTOver 15K Russian troops built up along Ukraine border, Reuters says
Reuters stated on Twitter that more than 15,000 Russian troops are now amassed along the border with Ukraine, citing the U.S. ambassador to NATO. Reference Link
11:55 EDTAnother leg lower on U.S. stocks tracked Europe
Another leg lower on U.S. stocks tracked Europe where equities hit the skids, lurching lower heading to the home stretch ahead of the weekend. The Euro Stoxx 50 is off 1.3%, while France's CAC is off 1.6%. Russian stocks remain underwater as well, with the MICEX off 1.5% and the RTS 1.7% lower on fears about even deeper sanctions as mortar rounds get lobbed back and forth across the border of Eastern Ukraine. The major U.S. indices are 0.5-0.7% lower as a result following earnings misses at Amazon and Visa, which soured sentiment overnight. Indeed, the biggest decliners in the Dow are Visa -4.8%, UnitedHealth -1.6% and AMEX -1.5%, while Verizon and McDonald's are 0.3% firmer.
11:35 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD pushed through the 1.0800 mark
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10:45 EDTIn a recap for bond bulls, PIMCO's Gross Tweeted:
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10:30 EDTTreasury Option Action: heavy 10-year combo activity
Treasury Option Action: heavy 10-year combo activity has been confirmed in overnight trade, entailing 40k in September 124 puts purchased against 20k in September 126 and 20k in September 126+ calls. Speculation is that this could be aimed at replacing positions rolling off given expirations today. Some 123k in Aug 124 puts are expected to expire worthless today. September 10-year futures are 6.5-ticks firmer with the opening downdraft on stocks, compared to a range of 125-08 to 124-30 so far.
10:00 EDTFed Policy Outlook: analysts don't expect any major revelations from the FOMC
Fed Policy Outlook: analysts don't expect any major revelations from the FOMC in next week's (July 29, 30) meeting. Another $10 B cut in QE purchases is pretty much a foregone conclusion, with the Fed expected to finish its buybacks in October with a $15 B reduction. And while there is likely to be a hot debate over the exit strategy and rate lift-off, Wednesday's policy statement won't give anything away in terms of explicit strategies or rate lift-off timing. Indeed, about the only material change in the statement relative to June's should be a slight upgrade to the economic outlook and labor market conditions, while the statement on inflation should reiterate prices are running below target but longer-term expectations have remained stable. The time is fast approaching, however, that the Fed will have to change the "considerable time" forward guidance, as well as update the markets on whether Treasury holdings will be allowed to expire, or be reinvested. Yellen's dovish nature and the general belief at the Fed that the stock of Treasuries in the portfolio is more important than flows suggest the former tactic may be employed. Analysts are still forecasting the first rate hike will take place in Q2. Many other Fedwatchers have been pushing up their forecasts from 2H. And given the improvement in the labor market, there is risk for a hike as early as the March 17, 18, 2015 meeting, especially as it includes a press conference.
09:57 EDTFutures weaken, leading to lower open
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09:30 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: straddle spread demand
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09:20 EDTTreasury Action: curve flatteners are generally in play
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09:20 EDTToday's U.S. durables report
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09:05 EDTBig decisions loom for the Fed
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08:55 EDTFX Action: The dollar gyrated a bit
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08:50 EDTU.S. equities rotated lower
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields rotated lower
Treasury Action: yields rotated lower on the headline durables gain, which came in around consensus and didn't really set off any alarm bells either way. With stocks already loitering in the red, that left the T-note yield to probe below Asian lows near 2.50% to lows of 2.49%, down from overnight highs near 2.52%. The 2s-10s spread is right on top of +200 bp again. Both supply and the FOMC loom next week, which could keep the bond market finely balanced for now.
08:40 EDTU.S. durable goods orders rebounded 0.7% in June
U.S. durable goods orders rebounded 0.7% in June after a 1.0% May decline (revised down from -0.9%). The latter was the first decline since January. Transportation orders were up 0.6% as the 2.8% drop in May (revised from -3.0%) was partly unwound. Excluding transportation, orders were up 0.8% versus -0.1% previously. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft rebounded 1.4% versus the 1.2% May decline (revised from -1.1%). Shipments inched up 0.1% for a 6th straight monthly gain. Nondefense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft fell 1.0%. Inventories increased 0.4%.
08:34 EDTStock futures suggest relatively quiet open
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08:32 EDTCredit Suisse macroeconomics analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
Analysts provide an industry update and outlook on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on July 28 at 8 am.
08:20 EDTFed funds opened at 0.09%
Fed funds opened at 0.09%. The rate ranged from 0.05% to 0.31250% on Thursday with a 0.09% effective rate as the 2-week maintenance period came to a close. Interbank borrowing rates remained volatile at today's Libor fixing. The overnight dollar Libor rate edged up to 0.09150% after dipping to 0.09130% yesterday. The 1-week rate slipped to 0.12200%, unwinding yesterday's move up to 0.12325%. The 3-month rate fell to 0.23410% from 0.23510%. And the 12-month rate rose to 0.56010% versus Thursday's 0.55710%.
08:19 EDTHouse Science, Space and Technology Committee to hold a hearing
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08:10 EDTU.S. Durable Goods Preview
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08:10 EDTFed funds opened at 0.09%
Fed funds opened at 0.09%. The rate ranged from 0.05% to 0.31250% on Thursday with a 0.09% effective rate as the 2-week maintenance period came to a close. Interbank borrowing rates remained volatile at today's Libor fixing. The overnight dollar Libor rate edged up to 0.09150% after dipping to 0.09130% yesterday. The 1-week rate slipped to 0.12200%, unwinding yesterday's move up to 0.12325%. The 3-month rate fell to 0.23410% from 0.23510%. And the 12-month rate rose to 0.56010% versus Thursday's 0.55710%.
08:00 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD touched 1.0768 highs
FX Action: USD-CAD touched 1.0768 highs overnight, its best of the week, though continues to struggle over 1.0760. With risk taking levels remaining wobbly though, USD-CAD downside has been difficult this week as well, though bigger picture, range trade remains in place, and will likely continue into the weekend. The Canadian calendar is empty, so traders will look to U.S. durables, equity markets, and commodity prices for guidance this morning.
07:55 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are a little lower
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07:50 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:39 EDTSEC to hold an open commission meeting
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07:34 EDTThe FCC Consumer Advisory Committee to hold a meeting
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07:29 EDTEarnings keep averages at elevated levels
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05:56 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for July 25
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05:46 EDTAugust front month equity options last day to trade August 15, 2014
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July 24, 2014
22:00 EDTWeek of 8/6 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
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22:00 EDTWeek of 7/28 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
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19:40 EDTJapan's core CPI rose 3.3% y/y in June
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19:30 EDTJune Consumer Credit to be released at 15:00
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16:32 EDTFed Balance Sheet Total Assets data reported
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16:32 EDTMoney Supply M2 Weekly Change data reported
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16:32 EDTWeek of 8/1 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 10:30
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16:32 EDTWeek of 8/2 Jobless Claims to be released at 08:30
15:00 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:10 EDTU.S. Durable Goods Preview
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14:05 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: bearish positioning has continued
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13:25 EDTTreasury Action: yields pulled back from highs
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13:15 EDTTreasury's $15 B 10-year TIPS sale saw mixed results
Treasury's $15 B 10-year TIPS sale saw mixed results. The issue stopped through at 0.249%, after having edged up to 0.265% into the bid deadline. The award rate compares to 0.661% for the prior new issue in January, and 0.339% for the $13 B May reopening. There were $37.4 B in bids for a 2.49 cover, versus 2.31 in January and 2.91 in May. Indirect bidders took 53.1% against January's 51.8% and May's 66.3%. Direct bidders were awarded 10.3%, up from 6.3% in May, with primary dealers accepting 36.6% compared to 27.5%. Source suggested some of the slide in the nominal bond market was a function of worries over the TIPS auction, so the mixed results might allow for some bounce in Treasuries.
13:00 EDTU.S. dollar swap spreads remain elevated
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12:40 EDTTreasury Action: some of today's weakness in bonds
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12:25 EDTTreasury 10-year TIPS outlook: the $15 B sale could be difficult
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11:15 EDTNY Fed bought $2.369 B in notes
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11:15 EDTTreasury Action: Treasury announced a $93 B auction package
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10:50 EDTTreasury Action: Treasury is expected to announce a $93 B auction package
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10:45 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is down 56 cents at $102.56
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10:40 EDTU.S. new home sales sharply undershot estimates
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10:30 EDTEIA Natural Gas Storage Change for the week ending July 18
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10:30 EDTTreasury Option Action: bearish positioning on 5-year
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10:25 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: Fed is buying $2 B to $2.5 B in notes
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10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields pulled back from highs
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10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar eased back some
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10:10 EDTU.S. new home sales fell 8.1% to 406k in June
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10:03 EDTEarnings lift market at open, averages mixed after home sales data
Stock futures improved throughout the pre-market trading session, helped in part by better than expected jobless claims data and a barrage of earnings reports both last night and this morning. Weekly jobless claims fell below 300K, but the Labor Department cautioned that this is a typical period of volatility. Last night and this morning were particularly heavy earnings reporting days and the reports on balance had given confidence to buy shares in the early going. A just released report showed that June new home sales fell 8.1% to a 406K rate and the prior month was downwardly revised. Following the home sales data, the Dow is up 4 points, the Nasdaq is up 2 points and the S&P is down 1 point.
10:01 EDTNew Home Sales data reported
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10:00 EDTU.S. Markit flash PMI for July dipped 1 point to 56.3
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09:50 EDTU.S. New Home Sales Preview
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09:32 EDTHouse Judiciary Committee to hold a hearing
The Subcommittee on Courts, Intellectual Property and the Internet holds a hearing entitled, "Copyright Remedies" on July 24 at 1:30 pm. Webcast Link
09:20 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: more mixed positioning
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09:01 EDTHouse Judiciary Committee to hold a hearing
The Subcommittee on Courts, Intellectual Property and the Internet holds a hearing entitled, "Copyright Remedies" on July 24 at 1:30 pm. Webcast Link
08:50 EDTU.S. equities are on a firmer footing
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08:50 EDTThe 19k U.S. initial claims plunge to a 284k cycle-low
The 19k U.S. initial claims plunge to a 284k cycle-low in the third week of July followed a 2k decline to 303k (was 302k) in the BLS survey week to leave a big 32k three-week drop from 316k in late-June, as strength in truck assemblies through the retooling period has held down claims and should lift most July factory sector measures. Claims are averaging just 297k in July, after prior averages of 314k in June, 312k in May, and 322k in April. The 303k BLS survey week reading undershot recent BLS figures of 314k in June, 327k in May, and 305k in April. Analysts expect a 220k July payroll rise that is stronger than the 208k average rise of the last twelve months, but below the larger 272k average gain in Q2. Payrolls face upside risk from tight claims, a firm producer sentiment trajectory, a rise in vehicle assembly rates in July led by trucks, an ongoing consumer confidence climb back to mid-2013 levels, and a big 281k June ADP rise.
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields snapped higher
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08:45 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY touched one-week highs of 101.75
FX Action: USD-JPY touched one-week highs of 101.75 after the U.S. claims data, though is running into resistance over 101.70. Offers are still seen layered up to 102.00, though a break over the July 15 high of 101.79 could shift sentiment, and improved risk levels through the U.S. session could help the market achieve a test of 102.00.
08:40 EDTHouse Transportation & Infrastructure Committee to hold a hearing
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08:40 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims dropped 19k to 284k in the week ended July 19
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08:40 EDTFX Action: The dollar moved higher
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08:35 EDTHouse Energy & Commerce Committee to hold a hearing
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08:34 EDTFutures suggest a moderately higher open
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08:31 EDTJobless Claims data reported
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08:12 EDTAmerican Enterprise Institute holds a discussion
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08:10 EDTU.S. weekly jobless claims preview:
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08:09 EDTThe SEC to hold a closed commission meeting
Closed Commission Meeting to consider institution and settlement of injunctive actions; institution and settlement of administrative proceedings; a litigation matter and other matters relating to enforcement proceedings in a meeting to be held at SEC Washington, D.C. offices on July 24 at 2 pm.
08:08 EDTHouse Financial Services Committee to hold a hearing
The Capital Markets and Government Sponsored Enterprises Subcommittee holds a hearing entitled, "Oversight of the SEC's Division of Corporation Finance" with Director Higgins of the SEC on July 24 at 10 am. Webcast Link
08:06 EDTHouse Oversight & Government Reform Committee to hold a hearing
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08:05 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD moved inside of its Wednesday trading band
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08:00 EDTFed funds opened at 0.09%
Fed funds opened at 0.09%. The rate ranged from 0.05% to 0.31250% on Wednesday with a 0.09% effective rate as the 2-week maintenance period came to a close. Interbank borrowing rates were mixed at today's Libor fixing. The overnight dollar Libor rate dipped to 0.09130% versus 0.09200%. The 1-week rate edged up to 0.12325% from 0.12300%. The 3-month rate rose to 0.23510% versus 0.23410%. And the 12-month rate rebounded to 0.55710% versus 0.55360%.
07:55 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds are lower
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07:50 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:47 EDTMacquarie to hold a tour
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07:30 EDTFutures higher as earnings please investors
U.S. equity futures are pointing to a higher open as investors grow more optimistic about the current earnings season. Today investors will also be watching the weekly jobless claims data, new home sales report, and natural gas inventories for clues about the economy.
06:59 EDTEuro zone PMI grew at fastest rate in three months, Reuters says
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06:32 EDTChinese PMI grew at fastest rate in 18 months, Reuters says
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05:54 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for July 23
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05:47 EDTAugust front month equity options last day to trade August 15, 2014
July 23, 2014
19:52 EDTJuly Treasury STRIPS to be released at 15:00
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17:30 EDTU.S. weekly jobless claims preview:
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16:59 EDTWeek of 8/1 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30
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16:59 EDTJune International Trade to be released at 08:30
16:59 EDTWeek of 8/1 MBA Purchase Applications to be released at 07:00
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15:05 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: Long yields continued to drift lower after a false start higher on Wednesday following a slight easing of risk aversion that underpinned stocks in Europe. There was little on the U.S. economic front to dissect, though the IMF downgraded U.S. 2014 growth forecasts and plead with the Fed to keep rates low well into 2015. Supply also featured with a hefty 5-tranche debt offering from eBay, adding to the mix, while the WSJ claimed the Fed still had little cause to worry about inflation. A large $2.7 B NY Fed buyback helped keep a lid on yields, which relaxed lower as opening equity gains plateaued.
14:55 EDTU.S. New Home Sales Preview
U.S. New Home Sales Preview: June new home sales will be released Thursday and the headline is expected to decline 5.8% to 475k (median 480k) from 504k last month. Last month's headline gain set a high back to May of '08. Housing starts for June have already been released and declined to 893k from 985k in May.
13:55 EDTTreasury Action: Treasury sells $15 B in 10-year TIPS Thursday
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13:15 EDTTreasury Option Action: bearish positioning in the 5-year
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13:05 EDTU.S. equities are beginning to stall out
U.S. equities are beginning to stall out and pull back from highs, capping USD-JPY near 101.50, while Treasuries didn't wait for this development and the T-note yield already angled back down toward session lows of 2.45%. The IMF cut of U.S. growth forecasts may have had some bearing, though similar bearish news has been quickly shrugged off by bullish investors. The tech sector had been boosted by Apple earnings and Biogen, while Apple is still up about 3%, but under session highs of $97.88. European shares closed off earlier highs, little changed. Within the Dow, Goldman +1%, du Pont +0.75% and Microsoft +0.5% gained the most, while on the downside Boeing -2.5% was dented by all the recent crashes, followed by Caterpillar -1.3% and Cisco -1.1%.
12:40 EDTTreasury Action: SEC voted to adopt a floating share prices for prime funds
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11:40 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has moved to intra day highs of 101.53
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11:25 EDTTreasury Option Action: mixed positioning
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11:15 EDTNY Fed bought $2.774 B in notes
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11:05 EDTTreasury Action: yields are backing up from lows
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10:49 EDTMissiles fired from Russia that shot down fighter jets, AFP reports
The two downed Ukrainian military fighter jets were hit today with missiles fired from Russia, AFP reports via Twitter.
10:40 EDTOil Action: Front month NYMEX crude rallied to $102.91
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10:35 EDTSenate Commerce, Science & Transportation Committee holds a hearing
The Committee holds a hearing entitled, "The Cruise Passenger Protection Act (S.1340): Improving Consumer Protections for Cruise Passengers" will be held on July 23 at 2:45 pm. Webcast Link
10:32 EDTBloomberg Government to hold a webinar
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10:31 EDTThe SEC to hold a closed commission meeting
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10:30 EDTCrude Inventories for the week of July 18
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10:30 EDTHouse Transportation & Infrastructure Committee to hold a hearing
The Subcommittee on Aviation holds a hearing entitled, "Domestic Aviation Manufacturing: Challenges & Opportunities" with Associate Administrator Gilligan of the FAA on July 23 at 10 am. Webcast Link
10:26 EDTSEC to hold an open commission meeting
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10:25 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: Fed is buying $2.5 B to $3.25 B in notes
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10:05 EDTU.S. corporate debt: a 5-trancher from eBay
U.S. corporate debt: a 5-trancher from eBay just leapt out of the woodwork to liven up the investment grade sector, with maturities ranging from 3-year to 10-year and little price guidance as of yet. Brazil will tap the market for a 31-year bond as well. Over in the high yield department Senegal launched a $500 mn 10-year bond at 6.25%, while Citgo has a $650 M 8-year, Greenko has a 5-year and Micron $750 M 11-year note. Perhaps this will cause a flurry of hedging and unwinds to help roust the bond market from summer doldrums.
10:00 EDTMarket mixed in early trading following reports from Apple, Boeing
Stock futures weakened slightly during the pre-market trading session, leading to a mixed open for the broader market. The Dow has been the laggard, as it is being weighed down by a post-earnings slide in Boeing (BA) and weakness in McDonald’s (MCD) following multiple analyst downgrades after its disappointing report yesterday. Shares of Apple (AAPL), however, are rising in the early going after its quarterly report last night, which is helping to lift the Nasdaq in the early going. About 30 minutes into trading, the Dow is down 33 points, the Nasdaq is up 9 points and the S&P is up 1 point.
09:55 EDTFed Policy Outlook: recent data don't make a compelling case for rate hikes
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09:35 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is up 15 cents
Oil Action: NYMEX crude is up 15 cents at $102.54 in N.Y. trade, with geopolitical risks continuing to support prices. A generally stronger dollar has offset to a degree, as has a relatively soft demand profile. Traders will watch the 10:30 EDT release of weekly EIA inventory data, where a nearly 3 M bbl draw in U.S. stocks is expected.
09:25 EDTFed still has little reason to worry about inflation
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09:05 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: some bullish positioning
Euro$ interest rate options: some bullish positioning was noted in modest overnight trade on the short-dated rate futures. These included a purchase of 5k in Short December 88/90/91/92 call condors and 2k in Short September 92/93 call 1x2s. Though the lead Sep 2014 contract remains flat at 99.765, the deferreds are 0.5-2.5 ticks firmer out the back. Damp core CPI yesterday helped give euro$s a leg up ahead of next week's FOMC decision.
08:45 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD based at 1.0711
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08:35 EDTU.S. equities are marginally firmer
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08:25 EDTTreasury Market Outlook:
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08:00 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD slipped marginally overnight
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07:50 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:45 EDTFed funds opened at 0.09%
Fed funds opened at 0.09%. The rate ranged from 0.06% to 0.31250% on Tuesday with a 0.09% effective rate. Interbank borrowing rates were mixed at today's Libor fixing. The overnight dollar Libor rate dipped to 0.09200% after rebounding to 0.09250% on Tuesday. The 1-week rate held steady at 0.12300%. The 3-month rate rose to 0.23410% from 0.23260%. And the 12-month rate slipped to 0.55360% versus 0.55610%.
07:30 EDTFutures quiet as investors digest earnings
U.S. equity futures are trading near fair value as investors hope to build on yesterday’s rally. Investors will be digesting the many earnings reports released last night and this morning. They will also be keeping an eye on news related to Israel and Russia. Little economic data is slated to be released, as the only numbers of importance scheduled to be unveiled are the weekly Department of Energy inventory data.
07:30 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index rose 2.4%
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07:20 EDTEuropean FX Recap
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07:00 EDTMBA Purchase Applications Composite Index data reported
Week of 7/18 MBA Purchase Applications Composite Index up 2.4% for the week
05:58 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for July 22
Globex S&P futures are recently up 3.30 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 down 0.10%, DAX up 0.51%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $102.16, natural gas up 0.19%, gold at $1310 an ounce, and copper down 0.28%.
05:45 EDTAugust front month equity options last day to trade August 15, 2014
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July 22, 2014
17:03 EDTJune Factory Orders to be released at 10:00
17:03 EDTJuly ISM Non-Mfg Index to be released at 10:00
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15:15 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:20 EDTCanada Retail Sales Preview
Canada Retail Sales Preview: Analysts expect retail sales, due Wednesday, to expand 0.8% m/m in May (median +0.7%) after the 1.1% gain in April. The ex-autos sales aggregate is expected to rise 0.3% m/m in May (median same) after the 0.7% gain in April. Vehicle sales made further headway, perhaps outpacing the usual spring growth spurt after the harsh winter. Gasoline prices marched higher, which should again lift gasoline station sales. An as-expected gain in sales would underpin the Q2 GDP rebound scenario, but not deter the BoC's focus on the less certain growth outlook this year amid serial disappointment globally and in Canada.
14:05 EDTCleveland Fed's Median CPI rose 0.2%, with the 16% trimmed mean up 0.1%
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13:44 EDTWeek of 8/2 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales to be released at 07:45
13:44 EDTWeek of 8/2 Redbook to be released at 08:55
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12:45 EDTTreasury Action: right on top of the 50% retrace
Treasury Action: right on top of the 50% retrace of the post-CPI range, the T-note yield is hugging 2.483% after sinking from 2.505% to 2.460% even as stocks continue to build on their opening bounce. Meanwhile, an Interpol team is beginning to identify the victims of flight MH17, suggesting cooperation is continuing from Ukraine separatists after the delays, easing risk aversion. That's a very tight range within the larger 2.692-2.441% July range, while 2.75-2.40% are the next 3-month bookends beyond. There's limited economic fare between now and next week's FOMC meeting, dominated by housing reports, which should leave the summer doldrums in place for now.
12:30 EDTTreasury Action: SEC is set to announce proposes new rules on MMFs
Treasury Action: SEC is set to announce proposes new rules on MMFs Wednesday. And that could lead to some short term volatility in the funds market, depending on what's released. Fears are that new restrictions on withdrawing cash could be imposed, and that could result in a pretty fast exit from funds. Another possibility is a floating share price versus the $1 currently in place for some funds (various regulations were imposed after the Reserve Fund "broke the buck" in September 2008). Changes to what assets the funds can purchase is also a possibility.
11:55 EDTTreasury's bill auctions were a little disappointing
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11:15 EDTFed Policy Outlook: recent data don't suggest rate hikes are in the offing
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10:55 EDTU.S. corporate debt: a triple-trancher from Manufacturers Hanover
U.S. corporate debt: a triple-trancher from Manufacturers Hanover will include 3- and 5-year legs, though size and price guidance hasn't been posted. Another financial deal in the investment grade sector is a Citigroup 5-year (price talk +85-95 bp over), while Nederlandse has a $500 M 2-year at even with mid-swaps. In the high yield sector Citgo, Kosmos, and Regency have intermediate offerings on tap. The reach for yield and low volume of offerings and sovereign issuance this week should keep investor demand keen and hedging impact light.
10:50 EDTToday's U.S. reports
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10:45 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: a variety of trades
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10:40 EDTFX Action: The dollar moved marginally higher
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10:20 EDTU.S. Richmond Fed's manufacturing index rose 3 points to 7 in July
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10:20 EDTU.S. existing home sales beat estimates
U.S. existing home sales beat estimates with a 2.6% June rise to a 5.04 M rate after a slightly-revised 4.91 (was 4.89) M rate in May and 4.66 M April clip to leave a small Q2 rebound from depressed Q1 rates of 4.59-4.62 M. The Q2 sales rise still leaves a disappointing 2014 performance, as June sales are 6.3% below the 5.380 M recent-peak in July of last year, before the Fed's taper-talk and rising mortgage rates took their toll. Median prices have held up better, given a 5.3% June rise to a new cycle-high that leaves that gauge 4.3% above the prior cycle-high from last June, though a shift in the mix of sales likely accounts for median price gain. Analysts have cyclical gains of just 46% for existing home sales and 36% for pending home sales, versus larger cyclical gains of 87% for new home sales, 87% for housing starts, and 88% for permits. Analysts expect GDP growth of 2.5% in Q2 and 3.5% in Q3, after the hefty 2.9% Q1 plunge, with residential construction growth of 3% in Q2 and 7% in Q3, after declines in the prior two quarters of 4.2% in Q1 and 7.9% in Q4 of last year.
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields rebounded from lows
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10:10 EDTU.S. existing home sales rose 2.6% to 5.04 M in June
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10:01 EDTExisting Home Sales data reported
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10:00 EDTTreasury Action: TIPS are underperforming after the CPI report
Treasury Action: TIPS are underperforming after the CPI report. Though the FOMC is more interested in PCE, the slowdown in the annual core rate for May to a 1.9% y/y pace from 2.0% saw TIPS yields edge a tad higher, with the shorter maturities posting the biggest losses. The 5-year breakeven has narrowed to 201 basis points before inching back out slightly to 202 basis points. The spread gapped out to beyond 210 basis points, the widest in over a year, after core CPI accelerated to a 2.0% y/y rate, the highest in a year.
09:50 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD firmed up toward 10760
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09:45 EDTU.S. Existing Home Sales Preview
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09:45 EDTU.S. Richmond Fed Index
U.S. Richmond Fed Index: The July Richmond Fed index is forecast to increase to 5.0 from 3.0 in June. Producer sentiment is expected to improve across the board as the various releases benefit from firm truck production and aircraft orders for the month as analysts discussed in yesterday's commentary.
09:39 EDTAverages higher in early going, Dow lags as Coke, McDonald's weigh
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09:15 EDTU.S. FHFA home price index rose 0.4% to 212.4 in May
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09:15 EDTThe 0.3% U.S. CPI June headline rise
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08:55 EDTU.S. FHFA home price index preview:
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08:50 EDTU.S. equities extended their rebound
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar initially slipped back
FX Action: The dollar initially slipped back a bit after the in-line headline CPI print, but slightly cooler core outcome, before turning higher once again. EUR-USD first moved toward 1.3495 from 1.3480, though was quickly slammed to new 2014 lows if 1.3460. USD-JPY meanwhile, dipped to 101.48, from 101.55 before rallying to intra day highs of 101.60.
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields dipped on the CPI reading
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08:40 EDTU.S. CPI rose 0.3% in June with the core rate up 0.1%
U.S. CPI rose 0.3% in June with the core rate up 0.1%. This follows a 0.4% headline surge in May and a 0.3% increase in the ex-food and energy component. Compared to last year, consumer prices are up 2.1%, the same as the prior reading; the core rate slowed slightly to 1.9% from the prior 2.0%. Energy costs climbed 1.6% last month. Food/beverage prices were flat. Housing costs inched up 0.1% with the owners' equivalent rent measure for residences up 0.2%. Transportation prices rose 1.0%, w hile apparel rose 0.5%. Medical care costs edged up 0.1%. Other goods and services were up 0.2%, though imbedded in that was a 1.0% jump in tobacco. The mix of data with the headline a little hotter than forecast, and the core rate a little cooler, shouldn't give much direction to the markets.
08:35 EDTFutures continue to suggest market bounce at open
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08:10 EDTFed funds opened at 0.09%
Fed funds opened at 0.09%. The rate ranged from 0.06% to 0.31250% on Monday with a 0.10% effective rate. Interbank borrowing rates were mixed at today's Libor fixing. The overnight dollar Libor rate rebounded to 0.09250% from 0.09150%. The 1-week rate was unchanged at 0.12300%. The 3-month rate slid to 0.23260% from 0.23310%. And the 12-month rate rose to 0.55610% versus 0.55120%.
08:10 EDTU.S. CPI Preview
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08:00 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is up 43 cents
Oil Action: NYMEX crude is up 43 cents at $105.02/bbl in early trade, with gains coming again from geopolitical tensions, and expectations for a sizable draw in U.S. weekly inventories. Conflict in Libya has cut newly reinstated production there, while prospects for further EU sanctions on Russia provides support.
08:00 EDTU.S. chain store sales fell 0.4% for the week ended July 19
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07:55 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds are lower as risk appetite improved
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07:53 EDTICSC-Goldman Store Sales data reported
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07:50 EDTSenate Health, Education, Labor & Pensions Committee to hold a hearing
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07:35 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:34 EDTSenate Finance Committee to hold a hearing on the U.S. tax code
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07:30 EDTAmerican Enterprise Institute holds a discussion
Discussion entitled, "Who Gets to Govern the Internet" focuses on maintaining a free Internet is being held in Washington, D.C. on July 22 at 8:50 am. Webcast Link
07:23 EDTSprott Asset Management to hold a symposium
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06:03 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for July 22
Globex S&P futures are recently up 6.40 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 0.84%, DAX up 0.93%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $105.12, natural gas down 0.21%, gold at $1307 an ounce, and copper up 0.47%.
05:50 EDTAugust front month equity options last day to trade August 15, 2014
02:20 EDTFX Update: The yen was the main mover
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02:15 EDTFX Update: The yen was the main mover
FX Update: The yen was the main mover in otherwise subdued trade in pre-Europe trade in Asia. The Japanese currency sank as stocks and investor risk appetite rose, following the currency's normal correlation, which saw USD-JPY and EUR-JPY rise to respective five-day highs of 101.56 and 137.34. News flow was on the light side. Japan's economy minister Amari said that a decision on whether to raise the sales tax to 10% will be made early December, while Japan's Cabinet Office estimated real GDP growth at 1.2% for the current financial year. News of another company bond default in China didn't have much impact, and Chinese stocks were in fact up strongly today (Shanghai Composite up 1%). EUR-USD traded sideways, within 1.3520-30. AUD-USD dipped to a 0.9360 low, which matched the present position of the 50-day moving average, before recovering to the upper 0.93s, aided by the fact that RBA Governor Stevens refrained from talking down the Aussie dollar during a speech today, which is something analysts don't read to much into but provided the market with a prompt nonetheless.
July 21, 2014
17:30 EDTU.S. CPI Preview
U.S. CPI Preview: The June overall-CPI is expected to rise 0.2% (median 0.3%), while the core index also rises 0.2% (median 0.2%). Analysts've seen a mixed round of June inflationary data thus far, as weaker than expected trade prices revealed a 0.4% decline in exports alongside a small 0.1% rise in imports, but with a 0.4% PPI headline rise with a robust 0.2% core increase.
15:15 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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13:45 EDTU.S. equities are nearly back to break even levels
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13:40 EDTU.S. Existing Home Sales Preview
U.S. Existing Home Sales Preview: June existing home sales will be released Tuesday and the headline should increase 1.2% to 4.950 M (median 4.995 M) from 4.890 M in May. Housing starts for June have already been released and made a surprise move lower to 893k from 985k in May. The NAHB composite improved for the month to 49 from 45 in May.
13:35 EDTU.S. Richmond Fed Index
U.S. Richmond Fed Index: The July Richmond Fed will be released tomorrow and analysts expect the headline to increase to 5.0 from 3.0 in June. Producer sentiment is expected to improve across the board as the various releases benefit from firm truck production and aircraft orders for the month as analysts discussed in this morning's commentary.
13:15 EDTTreasury Action: bonds remain higher amid ongoing geopolitical risks
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13:15 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: follow-up action
Euro$ interest rate options: follow-up action included purchases of another 15k in Blue October 68/71 put spreads (2x) vs a sale of 75 calls (1x) in a couple of packages. The September 2014 contract is still a half-tick lower at 99.76, while the nearby deferreds are 1-2 ticks lower as well.
12:35 EDTU.S. dollar swap spreads remain elevated
U.S. dollar swap spreads remain elevated suggesting that the credit markets haven't fully negated risk priced in since the Portugal BES crunch of over a week ago, despite reassurances from authorities there. The sensitive 2-year spread continues to probe +20 bp (mid), after bumping into that area a couple of times since Thursday, compared to the +14 bp area prior to BES. That's the widest spread in 11-months. The 10-year spread topped +12.25 bp (mid) on Friday, but has since pulled back to the +12 bp area, seemingly mirroring the curve flattening in evidence on the Treasury curve.
12:10 EDTU.S. corporate debt: a handful of deals
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11:45 EDTTreasury's $50 B bill auction was solid
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11:40 EDTU.S. equities nudged back up from lows
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11:40 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD is putting in an "inside day",
FX Action: USD-CAD is putting in an "inside day", ranging between 1.0730 and 1.0753, versus Friday's band of 1.0709 and 1.0766. This may be indicative of the recent rally running out of steam, after it struggled over the 1.0760 level last Thursday and Friday. Intra day support is flagged at 1.0730, with more bids at 1.0700, while offers are reportedly building from 1.0760 now.
11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $35 B 4-week bill auction for Tuesday
Treasury announced a $35 B 4-week bill auction for Tuesday, unchanged over the past two weeks. The debt managers increased the size of today's 3- and 6-month bill sale to $50 B, adding $1 B to each tranche, with the 3-month now at $26 B and the 6-month at $24 B.
11:10 EDTNY Fed bought $1.067 B in bonds
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10:50 EDTTrucks and Aircraft to Lift July Factory-Sensitive Indicators:
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10:35 EDTEuro$ interst rate options: a large block trade
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10:25 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: Fed is buying $1.0 B to $1.25 B in bonds
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10:00 EDTFed Policy Outlook: FOMC meeting is next week
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09:59 EDTBofA/Merrill economist & strategist hold an analyst/industry conference call
Chief U.S. Economist Harris and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Bianco provide a weekly equity strategy outlook on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on July 21 at 11 am.
09:56 EDTCitigroup securitized products analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
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09:44 EDTBarclays industrials analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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09:37 EDTMarket down to start week against backdrop of turmoil in Russia, Gaza
Stock futures showed little improvement during the pre-market trading session, as investors remain concerned about the events in Israel and Russia. This week the market will see an avalanche of earnings, but there is always the possibility of the quarterly reports being trumped by geopolitical events. With the economic calendar quiet, investors are left to listen to earnings calls and watch for headlines from overseas. In early trading, the Dow is down 72 points, the Nasdaq is down 15 points and the S&P is down 8 points.
09:34 EDTJPMorgan economists and strategists hold an analyst/industry conference call
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09:25 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has come off of opening levels
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09:24 EDTCitigroup healthcare services and managed care analysts hold a conference call
Analysts discuss the week's upcoming events on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on July 21 at 10 am.
09:00 EDTTreasury Action: curve flattening has resumed
Treasury Action: curve flattening has resumed with the front-end underperforming the back, as a hedge against Fed tightening sooner paired with geopolitical events and a potentially slower growth trajectory if the Fed does so. The 2s-10s spread has narrowed handily inside +200 bp to the +198 bp area and the 5s-30s is knocking on the door of +160 bp. The 2-year yield at 0.492% hit the highest level since the FOMC minutes on July-9, when it shot to 0.536%, while the 10-year yield is holding near 2.47%, above May-29 lows of 2.402% so far, which remains in sight. The short-end may also be getting a little jumpy ahead of June CPI tomorrow, should it prove "noisier" than the Fed expects.
08:57 EDTDeutsche Bank energy economist to hold an analyst/industry conference call
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08:42 EDTFutures continue to suggest slightly lower open
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08:40 EDTU.S. Chicago Fed's National Activity Index dipped to 0.12 in June
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08:25 EDTU.S. equities are mildly lower
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08:23 EDTDeutsche Bank biotech analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Biotech Analysts Karnauskas and Young discuss Non-alcoholic Steatohepatitis, NASH, on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on July 21 at 1:30 pm.
08:10 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is down 8 cents at $103.05/bbl
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08:10 EDTFed funds opened at 0.09%
Fed funds opened at 0.09%. The rate ranged from 0.05% to 0.31250% yesterday with a 0.09% effective rate. Interbank borrowing rates were mixed at today's Libor fixing. The overnight dollar Libor rate fell to 0.09150% from 0.09300%. The 1-week rate edged up to 0.12300% from 0.12200%. The 3-month rate rebounded to 0.23310% from 0.23160%. And the 12-month rate slid to 0.55120% from 0.55290%.
07:55 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries were steady in quiet trading
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07:49 EDTU.S. Transportation Secretary Foxx luncheon speaker
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07:35 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar perked up some in London trade, though remained inside of familiar ranges. EUR-USD trades near 1.3520, down from highs near 1.3550, while USD-JPY idles over 101.35, from 101.20 lows. Aside from the Chicago Fed index at 8:30 EDT, the U.S. calendar is empty. Equity futures suggest a modestly lower Wall Street open, while Treasury yields remain pressured by the uncertain geopolitical backdrop.
07:29 EDTInvestors' anxiety over geopolitics increasing
U.S. equity futures are pointing to a lower open as Israel steps up its ground offensive in Gaza. Increased tension between Western leaders and Russia, in the wake of new evidence showing that the missile used to shoot down the Malaysian jet was Russian, is also worrying investors. Investors will be watching an avalanche of earnings this week, as many more companies are scheduled to report their results. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index will be released at 8:30 am ET.
07:16 EDTInternational Society for Eye Research to hold a meeting
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06:07 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for July 21
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05:53 EDTAugust front month equity options last day to trade August 15, 2014
05:51 EDTiPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures at 28.05, 50-day moving average is 31.39
July 20, 2014
15:57 EDTConflict in Gaza escalates into more extensive and costlier phase, NY Times says
According to a New York Times report, what had begun as a limited ground invasion by Israel on Thursday night had moved into a more extensive and costlier phase for both sides. Reference Link
15:36 EDTEurope ready to impose 'harsher' sanctions against Russia, WSJ says
In reaction to the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17, European leaders are being more outspoken this weekend on their intent to impose "harsher" sanctions against Russia but unclear on how soon they will implement the more severe sanctions, says the Wall street Journal. Reference Link
July 18, 2014
17:26 EDTDurable Goods Orders Ex-transportation to be reported at 08:30
June Durable Goods Orders Ex-transportation will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 0.7% for the month
17:26 EDTFHFA House Price Index M/M change to be reported at 09:00
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17:26 EDTConsumer Price Index CPI to be reported at 08:30
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15:10 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: Stocks made a stab higher on Friday, as Europe recovered somewhat the day after the downed Malaysian aircraft, and yields bubbled back up from crisis lows. U. Michigan sentiment and LEI data were a tad soft, but focus was on the Ukraine crisis and if any diplomatic solutions could come out of the ashes of the tragic flight. European authorities also attempted to ring-fence the credit issues of Banco Espiritu Santo. This left the FX market fairly inert and fixed income slightly more defensive after dramatic curve flattening over the past week took a breather.
20:28 EDTConstruction Spending to be reported at 10:00
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20:28 EDTISM Mfg Index to be reported at 10:00
July ISM Mfg Index will be reported at 10:00 . Current consensus is 56.0
14:51 EDTJuly Consumer Sentiment to be released at 09:55
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20:28 EDTPersonal Income and Outlays to be reported at 08:30
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14:51 EDTJuly Employment Situation to be released at 08:30
13:55 EDTFed policy outlook: though the exact timing of the first rate hike is irrelevant
Fed policy outlook: though the exact timing of the first rate hike is irrelevant in the grand scheme of things, nevertheless the markets will remain sensitive to data suggesting lift-off could occur sooner than is envisioned. There will be plenty of opportunity over the next couple of weeks to adjust policy expectations with key data in inflation, the labor market, and the economy in general due out. CPI headlines next week and has been one of the key factors underpinning beliefs the Fed could push up its tightening time frame. Various housing reports and durable goods are also due, while PMIs and the all important nonfarm payroll data are released into month-end. Also key to the Fed outlook will be Yellen's Jackson Hole speech later in August.
13:30 EDTAction Economics Survey Results:
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13:07 EDTCBOE 100 Volatility Index down 21.4% to 10.32
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13:00 EDTA Tweet from PIMCO's Gross:
A Tweet from PIMCO's Gross: "Fed minutes in past months have cited geopolitical events may impact decisions at margin. 1 reason why yields decline. German Bunds the other." Fair enough, seems he feels Fed may back away from sooner tightening leaning.
11:50 EDTStocks are extending session gains
Stocks are extending session gains and NASDAQ is up over 1%, nearly recouping yesterday's rout. Short-covering into the European close has pushed the Euro Stoxx 50, FTSE and CAC just back into the green and the German DAX has pared losses to -0.4%. VIX equity vol has retreated 14.2% to 12.47 as a result of the rebound from 13.34 at the open and a spike high of 15.38 yesterday. Other risk proxies like gold are down sharply from $1,324 to lows of 1,304, while USD-JPY found support ahead of 101.00 and rebounded to 101.40. President Obama is about to speak on the Ukraine, which could pause the upmove.
10:55 EDTU.S. dollar swap spreads remain wider
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10:23 EDTMarket bouncing back in early trade from yesterday's geopolitical sell-off
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10:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields remained restrained
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10:10 EDTFX Action: The dollar revealed little reaction
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10:10 EDTU.S. leading index rose 0.3% to 102.2 in June
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10:05 EDTU.S. consumer sentiment eroded to 81.3 in July
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10:01 EDTLeading Indicators data reported
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09:50 EDTU.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview
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09:50 EDTU.S. leading indicators preview:
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09:15 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: more bearish positioning
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09:05 EDTTreasury Action: Treasuries are quiet but are maintaining overnight losses
Treasury Action: Treasuries are quiet but are maintaining overnight losses after heavy selling from Japanese accounts. Sources suggest it's an eerie calm, however, with the potential for bouts of volatility into the weekend. Note that Japanese markets are closed Monday. The 10-year note yield is being pegged to test 2.40% on any resurgence of safe haven flows. Dip buying is also expected to limit losses near term, even as the bond market has become increasingly concerned the FOMC could hike rates sooner than expected. Meanwhile, Barclays is estimating its month-end extension at a routine 0.08 years for a non-refunding month.
08:55 EDTTreasury Option Action: some bearish positioning
Treasury Option Action: some bearish positioning included a purchase of Dec 120/122 put speads vs a 128 call sale on 10-year futures, which are 3.5-ticks firmer near 125-15 on the September contract compared to a 125-235 to 125-08 range.
08:45 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD slipped
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08:35 EDTU.S. equities are mildly firmer after a damp session
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08:31 EDTJuly Farm Prices to be released at 15:00
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08:31 EDTWeek of 7/21 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
08:31 EDTWeek of 7/30 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
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08:10 EDTFed funds opened at 0.08%
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08:00 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is up 16 cents at $103.35
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07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are slightly lower
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are slightly lower amid profit taking. Selling pressure was relatively heavy out of Asia, even as European bonds remain mostly higher. The 10-year Treasury yield edged up a couple of basis points to 2.47% after hitting 2.44% overnight. Geopolitical risks continued to be the focal point. Equities are mixed with U.S. equity futures bounced slightly higher after yesterday's big declines. Analysts suspect safe haven flows will lift Treasuries into the weekend. The U.S. calendar is thin today. Earnings news will be of interest with GE, Honeywell, Johnson Controls, and VF Corp. On the other hand, today's data will be of little consequence to the overall outlook. On tap is the preliminary read on July consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan and June leading indicators. Next week's calendar includes CPI, housing data, the Markit PMI, and durable orders. There's another heavy slate of earnings news next week too.
07:40 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:32 EDTGeopolitical events leave investors wary
Stock futures are suggesting a relatively quiet open as investors remain wary following yesterday’s geopolitical events. Earnings continue to roll out, with some of the country’s bellwethers reporting last night and this morning. Investors remain optimistic about American companies, but they also believe that world events could trump even the best earnings reports. Investors will be watching the headlines for updates about the Malaysian jet that crashed yesterday, and Israel's ground invasion of Gaza. They will also be focusing on the day’s economic data which includes readings on consumer confidence and leading economic indicators.
07:23 EDTThe Cato Institute holds a discussion
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07:00 EDTFX Update: The dollar was near net unchanged
FX Update: The dollar was near net unchanged into the New York open against the euro, yen and other currencies. EUR-USD logged a new low of 1.3512 in Asia before turning firmer in early Europe, reaching the 1.3530-35 area before settling. The Jun-5 low at 1.3503 remains unchallenged amid talk of big buying interest at 1.3500 from reserve managers. Cable rose to 1.7117 on news that U.S. pharmaceutical company Abbvie closed a deal to purchase the U.K.'s Shire. USD-JPY logged an eight-day low of 101.08 before recovering to near net unchanged levels around the 101.30-40 area. The yen's softening was prompted by the BoJ minutes which showed some members pondering structural factors that are causing a decline in export competitiveness. Japanese average wage data were also revised lower, to 0.6% y/y in June, down from the preliminary estimate of 0.8%. AUD-USD tipped to a two-day low of 0.9336 before recovering to the 0.9380 area. NZD-USD, which has been under pressure this week following soft inflation data, clocked a one-month low of 0.8649.
06:52 EDTMarket-Vector Russia ETF Trust volatility increases
Market-Vector Russia ETF Trust July weekly call option implied volatility is at 31, August is at 27, November is at 21; compared to its 26-week average of 23 according to Track Data, suggesting large near term price movement.
06:20 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for July 18
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06:05 EDTStocks with implied volatility movement; UVXY RSX
Stocks with implied volatility movement; ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY) 129, Market-Vector Russia ETF Trust (RSX) 30 according to iVolatility.
05:59 EDTJuly front month equity options expire today, July 18, 2014
02:00 EDTFX Update: The USD and held firm amid a general risk-off theme
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July 17, 2014
18:28 EDTMalaysia Airline flight 17 confirmed shot down, CNN reports
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16:31 EDTFed Balance Sheet Total Assets data reported
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16:31 EDTMoney Supply M2 Weekly Change data reported
Week of 7/7 Money Supply M2 Weekly Change at -$12.4B
16:27 EDTWhite House lockdown ends, 'all clear' given, CBS reporter says
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15:57 EDTWhite House lockdown due to 'unattended package' near fence line, Jarvis says
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15:55 EDTWhite House in lockdown, ABC News' Rebecca Jarvis tweets
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15:55 EDTCanada CPI Preview
Canada CPI Preview: Analysts expect CPI, due Friday, to expand at an annual rate of 2.4% in June after the 2.3% clip in May. The acceleration in the annual rate is due to another month of higher gasoline prices. CPI is seen rising 0.1% in June after the 0.5% gain in May. The BoC's core CPI index is seen falling 0.2% m/m in June, in-line with the declines seen in past months of June. Annual core CPI growth is expected to expand at a 1.7% y/y pace in June, matching the 1.7% pace in May. The BoC dropped its focus on disinflation risks this week but maintained a dovish tone by lowering its outlook for growth and stating that ongoing stimulative policy will be needed to close the output gap. Hence, an as expected or stronger CPI report will not alter the policy outlook.
15:39 EDTIsraeli PM office confirm ground operation begun in Gaza, Bloomberg says
15:21 EDTIsrael begins ground invasion of Gaza strip, Al Jazeera says
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14:55 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: Long yields dropped back down to 1.5-month lows after fresh sanctions on Russia caused capital flight out of European stocks and back into bonds. Just as the markets started to recover from that news, the downing of a Malaysian passenger jet over the Ukraine hit the tape and sent stocks and yields lower still. Risk proxies gold, yen and the VIX all stabbed higher as a result. The plunge in housing starts, however, was largely offset by a surge in the Philly Fed index and modest dip in jobless claims. Fed "dove" Bullard warned that rates normalization might have to begin sooner amid rising inflation, though this didn't hold sway in risk-off trade.
14:36 EDTWeek of 7/25 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 10:30
14:36 EDTJuly Chicago PMI to be released at 09:45
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14:36 EDT Employment Cost Index to be released at 08:30
20:28 EDTJobless Claims to be reported at 08:30
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13:50 EDTSt. Louis Fed dove Bullard sees labor force participation declining
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13:35 EDTU.S. dollar swap spreads blew out again
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13:25 EDTU.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview
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13:10 EDTTreasury Action: geopolitical risks will remain the focal point
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12:18 EDTUkrainian armed forces says not involved in plane crash, Interfax reports
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11:51 EDTMalaysia Airlines says lost contact of MH17 from Amsterdam
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11:50 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY is taking its cue from Wall Street
FX Action: USD-JPY is taking its cue from Wall Street, where losses have accelerated. The dollar has pulled back to 101.28 lows so far, after running into good sellers at 101.60 earlier. Light stops were tripped at 101.33 (Monday low), though support is seen into 101.20. Bids remain at 101.00.
11:33 EDTJuly Challenger Job-Cut Report to be released at 07:30
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11:30 EDTU.S. corporate debt: South Africa has a $1 B 30-year
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11:20 EDTToday's U.S. reports
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11:20 EDTNY Fed bought $2.12 B in notes
NY Fed bought $2.12 B in notes dated from September 30, 2018 through March 31, 2019. Treasuries remain in rally mode, aided by earlier flight to quality flows, and by the buyback. The 5-year yield is down 2 bps to 1.67%.
11:15 EDTTreasury announced a $50 B 3- and 6-month bill sale for Monday
Treasury announced a $50 B 3- and 6-month bill sale for Monday, upping each tranche by $1 B. This brings the size of the shorter dated issue to $26 B and the longer dated one to $24 B. Debt managers also detailed a $25 B 52-week bill sale for Tuesday, and a $15 B 10-year TIPS offering for Tuesday as well.
10:35 EDTThe Philly Fed July pop to a 23.9 three-year high
The Philly Fed July pop to a 23.9 three-year high extended the June climb to 17.8 from 15.4 in May, versus a -6.3 fifteen-month low in February. The ISM-adjusted measure rose even more sharply, to a 59.5 cycle-high from 54.1 in June and 52.5 in May, versus a 49.0 nine-month low in February. Strong weekly vehicle assembly rates are likely lifting all the July factory-sensitive reports, as was the case with Tuesday's July Empire State rise and today's tight claims figure. Analysts've raised our July payroll estimate to 220k from 210k. Today's Philly Fed rise mirrored the Empire State increase to 24.60 from 19.28, where analysts saw a 54.8 ISM-adjusted reading. Analysts expect a Richmond Fed rise to 5.0 from 3.0, a Dallas Fed rise to 14.0 from 11.4, an ISM rise to 55.5 from 55.3, and an ISM-NMI decline to 55.5 from 56.0. The mix should allow the ISM-adjusted average to climb to a robust 55 from 54 through Q2, a 52 average in Q1, and a 53 average in Q3 and Q4 of 2013. Analysts saw a 56 cycle-high in February and March of 2011.
10:30 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: Fed is buying $1.75 B to $2.25 B in notes
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10:15 EDTU.S. Philly Fed manufacturing index climbed 6.1 points to 23.9 in July
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10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar inched higher
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10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields rebounded from lows
Treasury Action: yields rebounded from lows after Microsoft cuts help blaze a rebound in stocks, while the Philly Fed index was sharply higher, boosted in particular by its new orders component. The T-note yield snapped back to 2.51% from under 2.50%, giving a temporary reprieve from stretched curve flattening positions. The 2s-10s spread still narrowed to +202 bp, however, before pausing. Stocks are almost back to unchanged.
10:05 EDTU.S. equities rebounded from lows with Microsoft
U.S. equities rebounded from lows with Microsoft being rewarded with a 3.6% gain to $45.59 highs following the announcement of 18k in layoffs. This may have helped curtail opening losses on renewed stress and sanctions on Russia, while there were also reports overnight of a Russian jet downing a Ukrainian fighter over that country's Eastern territory. NASDAQ has cut its losses to -0.2% and is pacing the rebound. In fact, Microsoft is the biggest gainer in the Dow by a wide margin, followed by UnitedHealth at +0.5% and IBM +0.5%, while the deepest decline has been posted by Caterpillar at -1.5%. Philly Fed is up next.
09:49 EDTMarket opens lower, trims losses in early trading
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09:45 EDTU.S. Philadelphia Fed Index Preview
U.S. Philadelphia Fed Index Preview: The July Philly Fed is expected to increase to 18.0 (median 16.0) from 17.8 in June. The already released Empire State index for the month jumped to 25.6 from 19.3 and vehicle assemblies for the month are exceeding expectations, both of which lend upside risk to this release.
09:30 EDTThe June U.S. housing starts and permits drops
The June U.S. housing starts and permits drops followed big downward starts revisions to leave a disappointing two-month drop for both measures that translates to an anemic post winter bounce. The ongoing underperformance for the housing recovery likely reflects an ongoing mortgage market dysfunction that is capping construction growth alongside a dissipation in distressed sales that is restraining the various sales measures. The June housing starts drop was spread across the single and multi-family components, but was heavily concentrated in the South. Starts under construction, which drive new home construction, have defied the recent downdraft just as they defied bad winter weather, with a 1.1% June climb that follows gains of 0.9% (was 1.4%) in May, 2.8% (was 2.2%) in April and 1.3% in March. There hasn't been a decline in this measure since May of 2011. Analysts still expect GDP growth of 2.5% in Q2 and 3.5% in Q3, after the hefty 2.9% Q1 plunge, with residential construction growth of 3% in Q2 and 7% in Q3, after declines in the prior two quarters of 4.2% in Q1 and 7.9% in Q4 of last year.
09:15 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD dipped after the U.S. data
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09:15 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: mixed activity
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09:06 EDTMany Chinese businesses still deteriorating, NY Times says
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09:05 EDTSt. Louis Fed dove Bullard will discuss the economy
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09:00 EDTThe 3k U.S. initial claims drop to 302k
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08:55 EDTU.S. equities traded Portugal for Russia
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08:45 EDTU.S. housing starts dropped another 9.3% to 893k in July
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yield slumped to session lows
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar slipped after the mix of data
FX Action: The dollar slipped after the mix of data, where housing starts were much softer than expected, and weekly jobless claims were a touch lower than forecasts. EUR-USD popped up nearly 10 points to 1.3532, as USD-JPY edged to 101.44 from over 101.50. Equity futures remain underwater, while yields are under modest pressure.
08:40 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims dipped 3k to 302k in the week ended July 12
U.S. initial jobless claims dipped 3k to 302k in the week ended July 12, from a revised 305k previously (was 304k). The data are important as it coincides with the BLS survey week. The 4-week moving average was 309k from 312k (revised from 311.5k). Continuing claims fell 79k to 2,507k in the week ended July 5 from a revised 2,586k (was 2,584k) to end June.
08:36 EDTFutures continue to suggest lower open
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08:31 EDTJobless Claims data reported
Week of 7/12 Jobless Claims at 302K vs. consensus of 310K
08:20 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims preview:
U.S. initial jobless claims preview: jobless claims for the week ended July 12 are expected to see a 4k decrease to 300k (median 310k). The 11k U.S. initial claims drop to 304k in the week of the July 4th holiday, after the small 2k rise to 315k in the final week of June, reflects the typical weekly claims volatility seen through this important holiday-shortened week of the annual auto retooling. The tightening in claims since April implies upside risk to our 210k July nonfarm payroll forecast after the 288k mark in June.
08:20 EDTU.S. Housing Starts Preview
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08:10 EDTFed funds opened at 0.08%
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07:57 EDTSt. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Bullard speaks on the economy
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07:55 EDTNational Press Club holds a luncheon meeting
Transportation Secretary Foxx speaks about increasing U.S. transportation infrastructure spending at a National Press Club luncheon meeting in Washington, D.C. on July 17 at 12:30 pm.
07:55 EDTOil Action : A second day of gains has taken NYMEX crude
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07:45 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: flight to quality lifted bonds globally
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07:40 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar was largely sideways in overnight trade, with EUR-USD bouncing from 1.3520 lows, after unable to test the June 5 low of 1.3503. Cable corrected some back toward 1.7100, while USD-JPY was largely inside of 101.40-60. USD-CAD remained inside of Wednesday's trading band. The U.S. calendar reveals June housing starts, and weekly jobless claims, both at 8L39 EDT, followed by the Philly Fed index at 10:00 EDT.
07:34 EDTHouse Financial Services Committee to hold a hearing
The Monetary Policy and Trade Subcommittee holds a hearing entitled, "Bank Account Seizure of Terrorist Assets Act" on July 17 at 9:45 am. Webcast Link
07:32 EDTHouse Energy & Commerce Committee to hold a hearing
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07:30 EDTHouse Science, Space and Technology Committee to hold a hearing
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07:27 EDTInvestors cautious as market correction is elusive
U.S. equity futures are pointing to a lower open ahead of the release of several economic data points. Due out at 8:30 am ET are weekly jobless claims data, housing starts and building permits figures. Investors are exercising caution as the number of warnings about a stock market bubble increases. Many on Wall Street are waiting for some type of correction, but they have been frustrated as the market has hit several new all-time highs this year.
07:19 EDTThe Cato Institute to hold a conference
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07:01 EDTMarket-Vector Russia ETF Trust volatility low into sanctions
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05:48 EDTJuly front month equity options last day to trade July 18, 2014
02:10 EDTFX Update: The USD gained versus the EUR
FX Update: The USD gained versus the EUR but ebbed against the JPY, which firmed despite generally bullish stock markets in Asia. EUR-USD clocked a new low of 1.3520, drawing closer to the Jul-5 low at 1.3503. The Fed's Beige Book found that economic expansion has continued in all districts, noting some shortages of skill labour. USD-JPY, meanwhile, slipped back under 101.50 after edging low from the 101.70-80 area. There were no data or news catalysts. The euro was generally heavy, with EUR-JPY logging a fresh five-month low at 137.33, while EUR-GBP hit a new 20-month low at 0.7889. AUD-USD recovered to a two-day peak of 0.9382. The Aussie lifted on the coattails of firmer stocks in Australia and most of Asia today, with miner BHP Billiton a leader today as commodity prices rose, with gold and copper, amongst others, higher.
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