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Stock Market & Financial Investment News

News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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September 18, 2014
02:20 EDTFX Update: The dollar is firmer across-the-board
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September 17, 2014
20:50 EDTJapan's trade deficit improved slightly to -948.5 B yen in August
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16:40 EDTFOMC - Diverging Statement and SEP Takeaways:
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16:05 EDTU.S. Housing Starts Preview
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16:05 EDTU.S. Philadelphia Fed Index Preview
U.S. Philadelphia Fed Index Preview: The September Philly Fed will be released on Thursday and the headline should ease to 25.0 (median 22.8) after the August jump to 28.0 from 23.9. The Empire State index has already been released for the month with a big gain to 27.5 from 14.7 last month. Despite this analysts expect that sentiment will ease overall for the month and bring the ISM-adjusted average down to 55 after two months at 56.
15:44 EDTCurrency September volatility elevated at 26 into Scotland vote
CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust September call option implied volatility is at 26, October is at 9, December is at 6; compared to its 26-week average of 8 according to Track Data, suggesting large price movement into Scotland voting for independence, potentially fracturing the U.K.’s 307-year union.
15:40 EDTRates getting back to "normal" levels:
Rates getting back to "normal" levels: Yellen downplayed fears that the Fed could fall behind the curve. It's necessary for the Fed to maintain a more accommodative posture longer than would be needed, she said. The question was posed why the SEP forecasts suggest the economy could be back to more normal levels of growth sooner than the funds rate target arrives there, and thus there's danger of the Fed getting behind the curve. Regarding a predictable pace of rate moves, she said such may have contributed to diminished volatility in the markets, she denied it had anything to do with the apparent complacency that might have led to the housing bubble of 2004. She did admit that some policymakers believe somewhat less of a mechanical pace might be better, but that will be up for discussion. With that, the press conference ended.
15:25 EDTFed balance sheet operations:
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15:11 EDTYellen says could take until end of decade to normalize balance sheet
Yellen says growth has been slow relative to past recoveries. Fed Chair Janet Yellen continues speaking in a press conference.
14:55 EDTYellen says 'considerable time' pledge conditional, linked to economy
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14:50 EDTThe FOMC Forecast revisions
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14:40 EDTFOMC Takeaway: it's a mixed bag, not surprisingly
FOMC Takeaway: it's a mixed bag, not surprisingly. The statement leaned to the dovish side give the retention of a couple of key phrases, "considerable time" and "significant underutilization of labor resources." The SEP forecasts were mixed, and to some extent internally inconsistent. The "Dot Plot" turned a bit more hawkish than at the June meeting, with more members looking for the first rate hike next year, and with a slightly higher trajectory of rates. On the other hand, growth estimate for 2014 and 2015 were lowered, although the PCE price index for this year was left steady at 1.5% to 1.7%, and raised for both 2015 and 2016.
14:36 EDTWeek of 9/26 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30
14:35 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD had spent the morning session
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14:30 EDTU.S. Housing Starts Preview
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14:25 EDTFOMC also released a primer on its policy normalization plans
FOMC also released a primer on its policy normalization plans in conjunction with the statement. The first step, when economic conditions and the economic outlook warrant a less accommodative posture, will be to raise the funds rate, to be achieved "primarily by adjusting the interest rate it pays on excess reserve balance." The Fed will use "overnight reverse repos and other supplementary tools as needed to help control the funds rate." The ORR will be used only "to the extent necessary and will phase it out when it is no longer needed." The Fed's security holdings will be reduced in a "gradual and predictable manner primarily by ceasing to reinvest repayments of principal, the timing of which will depend on the economy.
14:24 EDTFed changes 2015 inflation outlook to 1.6%-1.9% from 1.5%-2%
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14:22 EDTFed alters 2015 unemployment forecast to 5.4%-5.6% from 5.4%-5.7%
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14:21 EDTFed cuts 2015 GDP growth forecast to 2.6%-3% from 3%-3.2%
14:20 EDTFed maintains 2014 inflation forecast of 1.5%-1.7%
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14:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields reversed higher
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14:20 EDTFX Action: The dollar spiked higher
FX Action: The dollar spiked higher after the FOMC announcement, despite the Fed keeping the "considerable time" phrase. Yields moved higher, as equities moved from positive to negative, and back to positive again. EUR-USD fell from 1.2960 to 1.2897, as USD-JPY ran up to 108.18 from 107.60. The dollar appears to be moving on the back of divergent central bank policies, as the BoJ and ECB are both still in easing mode, wile the Fed moves toward tightening, albeit at a snail's pace.
14:19 EDTFed lowers 2014 unemployment forecast to 5.9%-6% from 6%-6.1%
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14:18 EDTFed retains 'considerable time' language in policy statement
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14:18 EDTFed lowers 2014 GDP growth outlook to 2%-2.2% from 2.1%-2.3%
14:15 EDTThe FOMC kept the "considerable time" phrase regarding interest rates
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14:03 EDTFed says indicators suggest 'significant underutilization' of labor resources
The Fed statement read, "On balance, labor market conditions improved somewhat further; however, the unemployment rate is little changed and a range of labor market indicators suggests that there remains significant underutilization of labor resources."
14:02 EDTAugust Construction Spending to be released at 10:00
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14:02 EDTSeptember ISM Mfg Index to be released at 10:00
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14:02 EDTSeptember ADP Employment Report to be released at 08:15
14:02 EDTWeek of 9/26 MBA Purchase Applications to be released at 07:00
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14:02 EDTFed lowers monthly bond purchases by $10B
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14:00 EDTFed keeps 'considerable time' language in statement
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14:00 EDTT-Minus 10 and counting to the FOMC statement
T-Minus 10 and counting to the FOMC statement. Treasuries are in positive territory ahead of the statement and the SEP release. The Committee will alter its forward guidance to some extent, but will it lean to the dovish or the hawkish side is the question. Longer dated maturities are outperforming in a bullish curve flattening trade on speculation Chair Yellen and Co. will remain relatively friendly and retain the "considerable time" language. Additionally, there's expectation for slight downward revisions to some of the growth forecasts, as well as inflation estimates. Analysts think it would behoove policymakers to drop the date-dependent language sooner rather than later to provide more policy flexibility going forward.
13:45 EDTFOMC Forecast revisions
FOMC Forecast revisions will be revealed today, in tandem with the policy statement (and later in the October 8 FOMC minutes). The revisions should prove modest, though analysts do expect small downward bumps in high-end GDP growth estimates for 2014 and 2015, alongside a modest trimming in high-end headline and core PCE chain price forecasts for both years as well. There is little need for adjustment to the jobless rate and Fed funds rate forecasts. The Fed will also add 2017 to its forecast horizon, and analysts expect GDP growth estimates to show a moderation in growth toward the 2.6% long-term trend growth estimate, alongside a further upward-convergence of low-end inflation forecasts toward 2%, and a small cyclical drop in the jobless rate estimates to a band around 5.1%. Analysts assume that Fed GDP estimates will remain modestly above most market forecasts, just as the inflation estimates continue to be skewed lower. For a table of our assumptions for the Fed's revised forecasts, see our policy outlook page.
12:30 EDTTreasury Option Activity: a little flurry on 10-year options
Treasury Option Activity: a little flurry on 10-year options included bearish purchases of 35k in October 123/123.5 put spreads over the course of the session. Earlier there were bullish purchases of 10k December 127 calls as well. Some delta covering took place at 124-125 and 124-13, according to sources. December 10s are trading hands 3.5-ticks firmer near 124-105, compared to their 124-155 to 124-06 range.
11:40 EDTFX Action: The dollar has firmed up some
FX Action: The dollar has firmed up some versus the European majors and the yen, with EUR-USD taking out the London low of 1.2944, and easing into 1.2938, and USD-JPY on intra day highs over 107.60. The euro had touched 1.2981 in the aftermath of the cooler CPI data, as USD-JPY made 107.15 lows. Activity is likely to slow into the FOMC announcement, though it appears the market is leaning toward a relatively hawkish tone from the Fed.
11:30 EDTCleveland Fed's Median CPI inched up 0.1% in August
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11:09 EDTCurrency volatility elevated into Scotland voting for independence
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10:45 EDTOil Action: Front month NYMEX crude fell
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10:31 EDTCrude Inventories for the week of September 12
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10:15 EDTToday's U.S. reports
Today's U.S. reports revealed downside surprises for August headline and core CPI, thanks to weakness in apparel, medical, and tobacco prices alongside an expected big energy price hit. Analysts saw a 0.2% August headline CPI drop with a flat core price figure that left a 1.7% y/y rise for both measures. Analysts also saw a surprisingly lean round of 2014 current account deficits via a surprising Q2 improvement that followed a downwardly-revised Q1 gap, with revisions concentrated in the investment income components. The weak CPI report implies less pressure on the Fed to address the "considerable time" reference at today's FOMC meeting, though the NAHB September pop to a 59 nine-year high and less financial market dislocation in the revised current account figures do cap downside economic risks as well.
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields remained below highs
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10:10 EDTU.S. NAHB homebuilder sentiment index climbed to 59 in September
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10:01 EDTHousing Market Index data reported
September Housing Market Index at 59 vs. consensus of 56
09:47 EDTMarket opens quietly with investors on Fed watch
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09:40 EDTU.S. equities are marginally firmer
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09:30 EDTThe U.S. current account deficit narrowed unexpectedly in Q2
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09:15 EDTFOMC began today's meeting
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09:05 EDTThe 0.2% August U.S. CPI headline drop
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09:05 EDTTreasury Option Action: a bearish structure on 5-year futures
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09:01 EDTHouse Foreign Affairs Committee to hold a hearing
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08:50 EDTU.S. current account deficit narrowed $3.6 B to -$98.5 in Q2
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08:45 EDTU.S. CPI fell 0.2% in August, while the core rate was unchanged
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields stumbled lower
Treasury Action: yields stumbled lower after the unchanged core reading on CPI, which gives the Fed even more breathing room on the timing of any shift in policy guidance, in line with WSJ reports yesterday that "considerable time" would be retained this time. The T-note yield stalled out over 2.585% ahead of the dat and reversed to 2.56% after failing to clear 2.60% yesterday. The 2s-10s spread narrowed to +201 bp, about 3 bp tighter on the week.
08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar fell modestly
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08:40 EDTVanguard FTSE Emerging Market ETF volatility elevated into FOMC decision
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08:35 EDTFutures show little reaction to CPI report
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08:31 EDTCurrent Account data reported
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08:30 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude has steadied
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08:15 EDTU.S. Current Account Preview:
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08:10 EDTU.S. CPI Preview
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08:05 EDTFederal Reserve Bank Chairperson Janet Yellen holds a press briefing
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08:02 EDTSenate Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs Committee to hold a hearing
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08:01 EDTThe Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to hold an open meeting
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07:56 EDTFDA to hold a public hearing on Generic Drug User Fee Amendments (GDUFA)
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07:51 EDTFDA to hold a joint advisory committee meeting
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07:49 EDTSecurities Industry & Financial Markets Association to hold a conference
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07:40 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index rose 7.9%
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07:35 EDTCitigroup to hold a conference
Travel & Leisure and U.K. Small & Mid-Cap Conference to be held in London, England on September 17-19.
07:35 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:30 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are a little higher
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are a little higher, in tandem with gains in global bonds, as the markets benefit from talk yesterday the FOMC might retain its "considerable time" phrase, as suggested by the WSJ's Fedwatcher Hilsenrath, and news of a liquidity injection by the PBoC to the 5 major Chinese banks. The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen to 2.565% after testing 2.62% on Friday. German Bunds are underperforming following an upward revision to August HICP inflation. U.K. Gilts shrugged off solid labor data and instead focused on the cautious tone on growth from the BoE Minutes. It's all about the nuances in the FOMC statement today. Data will be of interest, especially as the calendar includes August CPI stats, an important indicator for the Fed, but it won't have much impact on today's policy vote. The September NAHB homebuilder survey is also due, along with the Q2 current account, and weekly oil inventories. The MBA reported mortgage implications rebounded 7.9% for the week ended September 12. The NY Fed will not intervene today.
07:26 EDTFutures drift following yesterday’s advance
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07:24 EDTCredit Suisse to hold a conference
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07:23 EDTUBS to hold a conference
17th Annual Support and Business Services Conference to be held in London, England on September 17.
07:23 EDTWilliam Blair to hold a conference
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07:20 EDTFX Update Narrow ranges have prevailed
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07:01 EDTMBA Purchase Applications Composite Index data reported
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06:48 EDTCurrency volatility elevated into Scotland voting for independence
CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust September call option implied volatility is at 24, October is at 9, December is at 7; compared to its 26-week average of 8 according to Track Data, suggesting large price movement into Scotland voting for independence, potentially fracturing the U.K.’s 307-year union.
06:45 EDTEuro zone August inflation rate revised upwards. AP reports
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06:43 EDTChina's central bank injects funds into banks, China Daily reports
China's central bank has injected $81B into the country's five largest banks, Sina.com reported, according to China Daily. Sina.com cited a banking analyst as its source for the news, China Daily stated. Reference Link
06:02 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for September 17
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04:30 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD extended below Tuesday's low
FX Action: USD-CAD extended below Tuesday's low to a six-day low of 1.0948. Better Canadian manufacturing data and a steadying in commodity prices have levels helped the CAD rebound, along with position squaring ahead of the FOMC. The March major-trend peak at 1.1278 back looks out of reach. Support is at 1.0920-33 (which encompasses a recent low). August CPI data on Friday will be the next domestic focus for the Loonie, which analysts expect to dip to 1.9% y/y from 2.1% y/y.
02:20 EDTFX Update: Narrow ranges prevailed
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September 16, 2014
17:25 EDTU.S. Current Account Preview:
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16:34 EDTSeptember Chicago PMI to be released at 09:45
16:33 EDTWeek of 9/27 Redbook to be released at 08:55
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16:33 EDTWeek of 9/27 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales to be released at 07:45
16:20 EDTU.S. TIC data showed foreigners bought $57.7 B in net U.S. assets in July
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15:25 EDTU.S. CPI Preview
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15:00 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: Markets were awakened from sleepy pre-FOMC trade with the call by WSJ Fedwatcher Hilsenrath that the Fed is set to retain "considerable time" in its policy lexicon, however premature that conclusion. Prior to that juncture stocks had been underwater and yields above lows after the tame PPI print, still wary of the FOMC, Scotland and the Alibaba IPO all stacking up later in the week. But in the wake of the Hilsen-call that all reversed and the dollar's gains were also punctured. There were also reports that China is set to ramp up liquidity for its 5 biggest banks as well.
14:10 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has reclaimed the 107 handle
FX Action: USD-JPY has reclaimed the 107 handle, after slipping to 106.82 lows earlier. The Fed will determine direction after the announcement tomorrow, where after today's dollar softness, either direction could have some room to run, depending on the FOMC scale on the hawk-dove scale.
13:45 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures redoubled gains
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13:24 EDTMoody's downgrades Costa Rica rating to Ba1 from Baa3; Outlook stable
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13:00 EDTFX Action: EUR-USD peaked out at 1.2995
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12:35 EDTTreasury Action: yields rolled over lower
Treasury Action: yields rolled over lower as the bond market embraces the idea that the FOMC could keep their language intact, which seems to prejudge the outcome a bit since they're just looking over the charts and presentations at the Fed right now and have yet to reach a decision. Yellen is also known for her switch to concensus-building as chairwoman, so this is far from over. Yet the T-note yield stalled over 2.585% and eased back to 2.567%, even with Wall Street about 0.5% higher now. The dollar index dove from 84.372 highs to break back below 84.0 again.
12:20 EDTU.S. Fed to stick to "near zero" rate language
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11:50 EDTTreasury's bill auctions were generally solid, but underperformed recent results
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11:30 EDTNY Fed bought $2.14 B in notes
NY Fed bought $2.14 B in notes dated from November 15, 2021 through February 15, 2024. The Street offered
10:55 EDTU.S. equities ramped to highs
U.S. equities ramped to highs while shrugging off a wall of worry from the FOMC, Scottish referendum and Alibaba IPO, because it's Tuesday and perhaps corporations still have some record buy-backs to execute. Computer HFTs may also be leaning on buy-stops, helping lift the major indices back into the green. Yields have also backed up from lows, with the T-note yield bouncing from 2.55% lows to clear 2.58% again. Meanwhile, the NY Fed is about to inject $2.0-2.5 B in liquidity.
10:30 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying $2.0 B to $2.5 B in notes
NY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying $2.0 B to $2.5 B in notes ranging from November 15, 2021 through August 15, 2024. The buyback is supportive at the margine, but yields remain little changed to fractionally lower ahead of the FOMC decision tomorrow. The Fed is universally expected to trim another $10 B from QE purchases, with there considerable uncertainty over possible changes in forward guidance.
10:25 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD eased into 1.1003 lows
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10:05 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures are firming again
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09:40 EDTMarket extends recent losses with drop at open
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09:20 EDTTreasury Option Action: heavy bearish put demand
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09:11 EDTNovember Treasury International Capital to be released at 16:00
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09:11 EDTOctober Treasury International Capital to be released at 16:00
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09:11 EDTAugust Treasury International Capital to be released at 16:00
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09:11 EDTSeptember Treasury International Capital to be released at 16:00
09:11 EDTJuly Treasury International Capital to be released at 16:00
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09:10 EDTCitigroup credit market analysts to hold an analyst/industry conference call
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09:05 EDTU.S. equities are mildly lower
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09:00 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is down 14 cents
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08:55 EDTRedbook Store Sales data reported
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08:55 EDTThe flat U.S. August PPI rise with a 0.1% core price increase
The flat U.S. August PPI rise with a 0.1% core price increase was exactly as expected, with a 0.3% drop in goods prices that reflected a 1.5% energy price decline and a smaller 0.3% drop for food prices, alongside a 0.3% price increase for services. Overall, goods prices have climbed by 1.4% through the first eight months of 2014, while service prices have increased by a slightly larger 1.6%. On the old SOP basis, analysts saw a 0.3% headline PPI drop that followed a 0.1% rise in July and a big 0.7% increase in June. For September analysts expect a 0.1% PPI headline and core price gains thanks to ongoing restraint in energy prices, which also accompanied food price weakness to depress last Friday's August trade price figures alongside flat core price figures. Analysts expect 0.1% declines for CPI and PCE chain prices, with respective core price gains of 0.2% and 0.1%.
08:50 EDTU.S. Treasury net TIC flows preview:
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08:50 EDTFX Action: The dollar is marginally higher
FX Action: The dollar is marginally higher in the aftermath of the in-line PPI data, taking EUR-USD down 10 points to just under 1.2945 and USD-JPY up 10 points to 107.15. Equity futures remain moderately under water, as yields moved fractionally lower. All is calm in FX Land ahead of tomorrow's FOMC, though trade should continue to be biased into the dollar.
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields remained steady-to-lower
Treasury Action: yields remained steady-to-lower following the flat reading on headline PPI and modest uptick on core after the apparently delayed report was released early. The benchmark T-note yield continued to probe overnight lows near 2.56% as the Fed meeting kicks off, down from Asian highs near 2.62% and with the 2.50% psych support likely holding for now. The 2s-10s spread has narrowed a basis point or two to +203 bp from Monday's close. TIC inflows are due next.
08:40 EDTU.S. PPI was unchanged overall, while the core edged up 0.1% in August
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08:36 EDTFutures remain lower following producer prices report
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08:31 EDTCurrency volatility increases into Scotland voting for independence
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08:25 EDTU.S. PPI report may be delayed
U.S. PPI report may be delayed a bit due to technical issues, according to wire reports.
08:24 EDTThe Federal Reserve System Board of Governors holds a Closed Meeting
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08:20 EDTU.S. PPI Preview:
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08:19 EDTFCC to hold a roundtable
Open Internet Roundtable--Mobile Broadband considers the application of Open Internet rules to mobile broadband, focusing on consumers' use of mobile broadband and on reasonable network management practices in the mobile context is being held at FCC Washington, D.C. offices on September 16 at 2:45 pm. Webcast Link
08:00 EDTU.S. ICSC Goldman Sachs chain store sales index declined 2.6%
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07:55 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar was largely range bound overnight, with EUR-USD near 1.2950, and USD-JPY flirting with the 107 mark. The commodity bloc reversed some of its recent losses, with both the AUD and CAD perking up modestly. The U.S. calendar will reveal August PPI data at 8:30 EDT, followed by July TIC flow data at 9:00 EDT. Equity futures indicate a slightly lower Wall Street open, while Treasury yields are a bit softer.
07:55 EDTCanada Manufacturing Preview
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07:46 EDTICSC-Goldman Store Sales data reported
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07:45 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries extended gains
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries extended gains with the 10-year yield dropping to 2.56%. Global bonds are mostly higher, in part on risk off trades as equities declined ahead of the FOMC decision and the Scottish vote. Asian buying in bonds was particularly noted. Data overnight was somewhat supportive too with the German ZEW declining, although less than feared, while China's FDI dropped to a four-year low. U.K. CPI slowed to 1.5% y/y, in line with expectations. Today's U.S. calendar includes August PPI, the July TIC data, and weekly chain store sales. The NY Fed will buy $2.0 B to $2.5 B in notes ranging from November 15, 2021 through August 15, 2024.
07:42 EDTCanaccord to hold a conference
Digital Finance & Money Conference to be held in London, England on September 16.
07:37 EDTScotiabank to hold a conference
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07:28 EDTFutures lower as Fed gets ready to meet
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07:24 EDTBernstein to hold a conference
11th Annual Pan European Strategic Decisions Conference to be held in London, England on September 16.
07:00 EDTFX Update: The dollar is been net steady
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06:13 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for September 16
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06:08 EDTiPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures at 29.42, 50-day moving average is 29.04
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05:59 EDTSeptember front month equity options last day to trade September 19, 2014
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05:50 EDTGreece sold EUR 1 B of 13 week Treasury Bills
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03:30 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY is settled in the mid-to-low 107s
FX Action: USD-JPY is settled in the mid-to-low 107s after recovering fro a Tokyo-session dip to 106.92. BoJ's Kuroda said that "analysts are only half way there" with regard to achieving the central bank's 2% inflation target, though this didn't impact the yen much being very much boilerplate. The pair left a 107.32 high in early London trade with the dollar holding firm into tomorrow's Fed announcement, but the market looks to lack the impetus for a test of Friday's six-year peak at 107.39. Offers are reported around 107.40-50. Recent data out of Japan have maintained the view that the BoJ is heading for further monetary stimulus, which contrasts the Fed's course, albeit gradual, towards tightening. Analysts remain bullish on the back of yield differentials, though are wary of risk aversion in global markets, which, if sustained, could see the Japanese currency snap higher on position squaring in yen-funded carry positions. Support in USD-JPY is marked at 106.50 and 105.94-106.000.
02:31 EDTSeptember Farm Prices to be released at 15:00
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02:10 EDTFX Update: The dollar recovered from a moderate dip in Asia
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September 15, 2014
17:16 EDTAugust Pending Home Sales Index to be released at 10:00
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15:00 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: The bond market consolidated above recent lows on Monday, just ahead of the FOMC decision this week after spending much of the month discounting a change in the "considerable time" forward guidance. Negative economic updates from China and the OECD overnight dissipated into the North American session with the surge in the headline Empire State index reading and subpar industrial production. Blue chip stocks traded slightly lower, but the tech sector took a deeper spill ahead of the hot Alibaba IPO.
14:50 EDTU.S. PPI Preview:
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14:05 EDTNASDAQ comp extended declines to more than 1%
NASDAQ comp extended declines to more than 1%, while the blue chips remain just narrowly underwater. Speculation that investors are making room for the mega-IPO from Alibaba continues to swirl and offers as good an explanation as any of the tech sector divergence. There was also an interview in the WSJ of a venture capitalist Bill Gurley hinting at a bubble in Silicon Valley start-ups with high cash burn rates, which probably didn't help much either on a light pre-FOMC Monday that has left Treasury yields largely inert.
13:11 EDTAugust Personal Income and Outlays to be released at 08:30
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12:50 EDTStill more euro$s interest rate options: jockeying at the short-end
Still more euro$s interest rate options: jockeying at the short-end remains one outlet in otherwise pretty dull pre-FOMC dealings, with the long-end locked in place under 2.60% on the T-note. Sources confirmed a sale of 30k in Blue October put spreads were sold, though unknown whether a liquidation or new bullish position. Also, in a block trade there was a 10k purchase of Blue December put spreads vs a sale of Short December 86/87 put spreads as well. More churn as Janet and company prepare to amaze the markets on Wednesday. Deferred contracts are still 0.5-2.0 ticks firmer.
11:55 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY bids into the 107.00 level
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11:45 EDTTreasury's $47 B 3- and 6-month bill sale was solid
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11:25 EDTMore on euro$ interest rate options: ahead of the FOMC
More on euro$ interest rate options: ahead of the FOMC the rate futures have been hopping, with a bullish purchase of 5k in Blue November 74/75 call spreads. There was also a large sale of 20k in Short December 85/87 put spreads for a purchase of 15k in Green December 75/77 put spreads. And a sale of 5k in Short December 87/88 put 1x2s. The Sep 2014 contract is flat near 99.765, while the deferreds are still up just 0.5-2.5 ticks.
11:15 EDTNY Fed bought $0.998 B in bonds
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11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $30 B 4-week bill offering for Tuesday
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10:25 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying $0.95 B to $1.15 B in bonds
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10:25 EDTFed Policy Outlook: analysts expect the FOMC to drop the "considerable time"
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10:05 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has retreated
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10:03 EDTCurrency volatility increases into Scotland voting for independence
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09:50 EDTThe disappointing 0.1% August U.S. industrial production drop
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09:42 EDTFutures action leads to quiet open, averages lower in early trade
Stock futures traded near fair value throughout the pre-market trading session, though the futures drifted into positive territory following the industrial production report. The market is coming of its first losing week in the past six and investors will be hoping to get the market moving in the right direction today, though the economic calendar will be light for the remainder of the day. In early trading, the Dow is down 21 points, the Nasdaq is down 23 points and the S&P is down 4 points.
09:25 EDTU.S. industrial production unexpectedly dipped 0.1% in August
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09:25 EDTFX Action: The dollar faded slightly
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09:20 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: mixed action
Euro$ interest rate options: mixed action included that 5k purchase of a leg of a Blue December 72/73/75 call tree/ladder and sale of the two other legs. There was also a bearish purchase of 8k December 95/96 put spreads against a sale of a December 97 call. Sources also noted heavy liquidation in block trade earlier totaling some 125k in 86, 87, and 88 puts. The underlying rate futures are a little perkier despite the impending FOMC decision and firm Empire reading, with the October contract flat, but the deferreds up to 2.5 ticks firmer.
09:05 EDTU.S. Industrial Production Preview
U.S. Industrial Production Preview: August industrial production data should increase 0.3% (median 0.3%) following a 0.4% gain in July. Capacity utilization should tick up to 79.3% (median 79.3%) from 79.2% in July. The soft August employment report could weigh on the release as could our forecast for a 1% decline in utility production for the month.
08:55 EDTThe Empire State sentiment pop to a 27.54 five-year high in September
The Empire State sentiment pop to a 27.54 five-year high in September reversed the August drop to 14.69 from a 25.60 four-year high in July, versus a 0.83 six-month low last November. The ISM-adjusted measure bounced to 53.4, after falling to 52.9 in August from a higher 54.8 in July, versus a 46.6 three-year low in both December and June of 2013. Today's September Empire State bounce bucks the downdraft analysts assume from a likely ongoing unwind of the summer vehicle assembly rate spike that lifted the various sentiment surveys, though the Empire index has oscillated fairly independently of the other sentiment indicators in recent quarters. Analysts expect a September Philly Fed drop to 25.0 from 28.0, a Richmond Fed drop to 7.0 from 12.0, a Dallas Fed bounce to 11.0 from 7.1, an ISM drop to 58.0 from 59.0, and an ISM-NMI decline to 57.0 from 59.6. The mix should allow the ISM-adjusted average to slip to 55 in September from a 56 cycle-high in July and August that was also seen in February and March of 2011, versus 54 through Q2, 52 through Q1, and a 53 average in Q3 and Q4 of 2013.
08:55 EDTU.S. equities remained marginally little changed
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08:51 EDTThe Federal Reserve System Board of Governors holds a Closed Meeting
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08:51 EDTCurrency volatility increases into Scotland voting for independence
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08:45 EDTU.S. September Empire State manufacturing index surged 12.9 points to 27.5
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields held below highs
Treasury Action: yields held below highs following the surprise surge in headline Empire State reading, though the employment component was sharply weaker. That left the T-note yield hovering around 2.60% following its clearance of 2.62% overnight. Stocks remain in shallow negative territory as well after the data. The 2s-10s spread is near +204 bp.
08:40 EDTFX Action: The dollar edged higher
FX Action: The dollar edged higher after the firmer Empire State index outcome, taking EUR-USD to the 1.2910 level. USD-JPY moved a few points higher to 107.30. Equity futures hover near flat, while Treasury yields are steady. FX trade remains quiet, though analysts look for USD gains into Wednesday's FOMC announcement.
08:35 EDTFutures continue to suggest quiet open
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08:15 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is down 63 cents
Oil Action: NYMEX crude is down 63 cents at $91.64/bbl in early N.Y. trade, after basing under $90.65 overnight. Losses came on the back of weaker Chinese production data, and a generally stronger dollar. Into the FOMC announcement on Wednesday, where a more hawkish statement could be in the cards, analysts look for the dollar to firm up further, keeping pressure on oil prices. Support is seen at last week's $90.43 low, though stops at $90.00 could be targeted on a move below that level.
08:15 EDTU.S. NY Fed "Empire State" Index Preview
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08:09 EDTBrookings Institution to hold a discussion
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07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries corrected slightly higher
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries corrected slightly higher in light trading overnight after major losses last week, as the markets await several key events. The 10-year yield slipped to 2.59% after testing 2.62% earlier. Japanese markets were closed for a holiday to exacerbate thin conditions. Overseas bond markets are mixed with core sovereign yields modestly lower too with the German Bund dipping to 1.069% from Friday's 1.08% close. Equities are little changed. Providing some support for bonds were disappointing production and loan data from China and the OECD's cut in growth forecasts for the largest developed economies. Key factors this week include the Wednesday's FOMC decision where there's significant risk of a hawkish change in forward guidance. As for the Scottish referendum, the "No's" have a fractional lead. The ECB will begin it TRLTRO. And, regional elections in Germany over the weekend showed a rise in the anti-euro AFD party. The U.S. calendar is thin today with August industrial production and the September Empire State index. The NY Fed will buy $0.95 B to $1.15 B in bonds.
07:50 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:43 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a forum
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07:40 EDTCRT Capital to hold a conference
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07:39 EDTUBS to hold a conference
Global Transport, Travel & Leisure Conference 2014 to be held in London, England on September 15-16.
07:37 EDTUBS to hold a conference
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07:32 EDTKeefe Bruyette to hold a conference
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07:25 EDTDeutsche Bank to hold a conference
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07:22 EDTInvestors hope market will get back on track
U.S. equity futures are trading slightly below fair value as investors hope the market can back to its winning ways. Last week the market posted its first losing week in the past six. Investors will remain anxious ahead of the Fed’s policy statement on Wednesday. There have been indications that the central bank could eliminate its assertion that interest rates will remain low for a long time. The market will also have to look past Chinese industrial output data, which came in well below expectations.
07:20 EDTSterne Agee to hold a field trip
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07:05 EDTFX Update: The dollar has opened the FOMC week on a firm footing
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06:55 EDTChina reports weak industrial output growth, Bloomberg reports
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06:10 EDTOECD cuts growth forecast for the largest developed countries
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06:01 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for September 15
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05:49 EDTSeptember front month equity options last day to trade September 19, 2014
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September 13, 2014
17:30 EDTChina industrial output growth lowest since 2008, WSJ says
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September 12, 2014
21:22 EDTPhiladelphia Fed Survey General Business Conditions Index to be reported at 10:00
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21:22 EDTHousing Starts Permits to be reported at 08:30
August Housing Starts Permits will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 1.055M
21:22 EDTFOMC Meeting Announcement Federal Funds Rate to be reported at 14:00
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21:22 EDTConsumer Price Index CPI to be reported at 08:30
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21:22 EDTIndustrial Production Capacity Utilization Rate to be reported at 09:15
August Industrial Production Capacity Utilization Rate will be reported at 09:15 . Current consensus is 79.3%
21:22 EDTEmpire State Mfg Survey General Business Conditions Index to be reported at 08:30
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16:47 EDTSeptember Consumer Sentiment to be released at 09:55
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13:05 EDT GDP to be released at 08:30
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13:05 EDT Corporate Profits to be released at 08:30
12:35 EDTU.S. dollar swap spread widening
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12:20 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has topped out at 1.1083
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11:48 EDTS&P raises Greece to B from B- with Stable outlook
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11:35 EDTeBay wouldn't comment on rumors of Google bid
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11:20 EDTToday's U.S. reports
Today's U.S. reports revealed upside surprises for the August retail sales and July business inventory data that lifted Q2 and Q3 GDP growth prospects, and that put a positive spin on the U.S. economic data as analysts approach next week's FOMC meeting. Analysts now assume a 3.0% (was 2.8%) GDP growth clip in Q3 that follows a boost in Q2 GDP growth to 4.4% from 4.2%. Analysts also saw an expectations-led bounce in Michigan sentiment to an 84.6 one-year high that defied headwinds from the deteriorating geopolitical backdrop. The trade price report for August revealed big headline price declines led by petroleum and food, alongside a flat core price path.
10:45 EDTU.S. equities remained near lows
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10:35 EDTThe 0.4% July U.S. business inventory rise
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10:25 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: a boost to bearish put trade
Euro$ interest rate options: a boost to bearish put trade has lifted the aforementioned purchase of Green November 73/76 put spreads vs sale of Short November 85/87 put spreads from the 30k originally reported to some 80k now over the course of the session. Euro$ are still as much as 9-ticks lower further out the curve.
10:20 EDTThe September Michigan sentiment climb to 84.6
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10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar is a touch softer
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10:15 EDTTreasury Action: good is bad
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10:14 EDTBusiness Inventories data reported
July Business Inventories up 0.4% vs. consensus of 0.4% for the month
10:05 EDTU.S. preliminary consumer sentiment rose to 84.6 for September
U.S. preliminary consumer sentiment rose to 84.6 for September, after edging up to 82.5 in the final August print. The index has bounced from the 2014 low of 80.0 in March and is the highest since July 2007. The strength was in the outlook index which climbed to 75.6 from 71.3. The current conditions index fell to 98.5 from 99.8. Inflation expectations dipped. The 1-year ahead outlook slowed to 3.0% from 3.2% previously. And the 5-year ahead measure slid to 2.8% from 2.9%.
10:00 EDTU.S. Business Inventories Preview
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09:55 EDTU.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview
U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview: Preliminary Michigan Sentiment is forecast to slip to 82.0 (median 80.0) in September from 82.5 in August. The IBD/TIPP poll for the month rose to 45.2 from 44.5 and the RBC/CASH Index was up 52.4 from 51.5. Despite these improvements in the secondary measures of confidence analysts continue to expect some give back of August strength in Michigan and Consumer Confidence.
09:50 EDTTreasury Action: the vicious cycle of yield and dollar gains resumed
Treasury Action: the vicious cycle of yield and dollar gains resumed with the T-note yield trespassing above 2.60% for the first time in over a month, now eyeing 2.614% July 31 highs. This has meanwhile given the dollar index another leg up to session highs of 84.41 as the euro sags toward $1.29 and the yen to 107.39 vs the dollar. The move may pause to reflect ahead of the next round of sentiment and inventories before resuming. Stocks opened weaker despite the bullish signals from USD-JPY near highs, while commodities and commodity currencies continue to sink. Note, analysts have raised our Q2 GDP estimate to 4.4% from 4.2% based on the retail sales data, while leaving Q3 GDP at 2.8%; Goldman just raised their Q3 GDP estimate to 3.3% from 3.1%.
09:45 EDTFed Policy Outlook:
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09:35 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: on the defensive again
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09:34 EDTMarket has quiet open, slightly lower in early trade
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09:30 EDTThe 0.6% August retail sales headline rise
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09:00 EDTThe U.S. trade price report
The U.S. trade price report revealed the expected August headline hit from falling petroleum import and food export prices, while core prices were flat in August despite declines in import prices ex-oil and export prices ex-agriculture. Commodity prices are unwinding earlier 2014 boosts from harsh winter weather and Middle East turmoil. Trade prices have more generally been moving sideways since 2011 as global growth weakness has allowed commodity price restraint, as has the 1%-3% annual rate of climb for the dollar since 2011 that has gained steam into September. Despite today's drops, export prices ex-agriculture and import prices ex-petroleum are showing resilience in 2014 overall, with respective year-to-date gains of 0.2% and 0.4%. For the remaining August inflation reports, analysts expect 0.1% headline declines for CPI and PCE chain prices alongside a flat PPI headline figure, with core price gains of 0.2% for CPI and 0.1% for PCE chain prices and PPI.
09:00 EDTU.S. equities marginally extended losses
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08:50 EDTU.S. import prices dropped 0.9% while export prices slipped 0.5%
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar rallied marginally
FX Action: The dollar rallied marginally following the better retail sales, and in-line import price data, taking EUR-USD briefly toward 1.3930 and USD-JPY up to 107.35. Equity futures are slightly underwater still, while yields are a touch firmer.
08:45 EDTU.S. August retail sales climbed 0.6%, though excluding autos rose 0.3%
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields remained elevated
Treasury Action: yields remained elevated following the slightly better than expected retail sales reading, along side weak but better than expected trade prices. The T-note yield had challenged the 2.59% area prior to the data before stalling, having risen from lows near 2.55% overnight. This brings the late-July 2.614% high into focus heading toward next week's FOMC meeting, with 2.692% July 3 highs above. First, analysts have another round of consumer sentiment and business inventories on tap.
08:36 EDTFutures remain quiet following economic reports
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08:25 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is up a penny at $92.84/bbl
Oil Action: NYMEX crude is up a penny at $92.84/bbl, coming off its overnight highs near $93.70. Traders look for short covering into the weekend, though the combination of a stronger dollar, slack demand, and abundant supply should limit gains to the $94 region.
08:20 EDTU.S. trade price preview:
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07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: weakness in global bonds spilled over to Treasuries
Treasury Market Outlook: weakness in global bonds spilled over to Treasuries and the 10-year yield traded up to 2.57%. The German Bund is holding over the 1.0% level for a third straight session. Equities are little changed and mixed. Worries the FOMC will drop its "considerable time" language at next week's meeting continues to weigh on the markets, along with disappointment over the lack of QE from the ECB. In overnight news, the "No's" are still in the lead in the latest Scottish referendum poll. Eurozone production was stronger than expected. Chinese lending data was weaker than expected. And, new sanctions take hold on Russia. In the U.S., the data calendar is heavy with August retail sales headlining, while trade prices, business inventories and the preliminary consumer sentiment index are due too.
07:45 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:27 EDTMarket-Vector Russia ETF Trust September volatility elevated
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07:20 EDTFutures quiet ahead of August sales figures
U.S. equity futures are trading near fair value. Volume is light ahead of the advance retail sales report for August which is due out at 8:30 am ET. Analysts are predicting that sales rose 0.6% overall ,while the core reading which excludes autos and gas is expected to have risen 0.3%. Other data points due out today include the Import Price Index, the University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index, and reports on business inventories.
07:16 EDTCitigroup to hold a conference
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06:13 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for September 12
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05:49 EDTSeptember front month equity options last day to trade September 19, 2014
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04:01 EDTWeek of 9/15 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
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04:01 EDTWeek of 9/24 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
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September 11, 2014
16:32 EDTFed Balance Sheet Total Assets data reported
Week of 9/10 Fed Balance Sheet Total Assets at $5.8B
16:32 EDTMoney Supply M2 Weekly Change data reported
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16:32 EDTWeek of 9/19 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 10:30
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15:25 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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15:00 EDTU.S. trade price preview:
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14:58 EDTIPath Dow Jones-AIG Grains Total Return Sub-Index volatility flat
IPath Dow Jones-AIG Grains Total Return Sub-Index overall option implied volatility of 21 is at its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.
14:40 EDTTreasury Action: the FOMC is in view and will start to dominate trading
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14:37 EDTTeucrium Wheat Fund volatility flat as wheat trends lower
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14:35 EDTTeucrium Soybean Fund volatility flat as soybeans trend to two-year low
Teucrium Soybean Fund overall option implied volatility of 23 is at its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.
14:25 EDTU.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview
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14:25 EDTU.S. Business Inventories Preview
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14:25 EDTU.S. Retail Sales Preview
U.S. Retail Sales Preview: August retail sales will be released on Friday and analysts expect the headline to grow by 0.4% (median 0.5%) with the ex-autos figure up 0.1% for the month. This follows respective July rates of unchanged and 0.1%. The outlook for August retail sales is modest but should be held up by back to school shopping at the beginning of the month as well as firm auto sales as analysts discussed in Monday's commentary.
14:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields stayed elevated
Treasury Action: yields stayed elevated to round out the session, with the largely as-expected budget deficit narrowing. The T-note yield is holding near 2.53% after stabbing below 2.52% on the solid bond reopening, having bubbled back up from 2.50% lows earlier. The 2s-10s spread remained stuck near +197 bp for the bulk of the session.
14:10 EDTTreasury posted a $128.7 B budget deficit for August
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14:01 EDTTreasury Budget data reported
August Treasury Budget at -$128.7B vs consensus of -$130.0B
13:55 EDTU.S. Treasury budget preview:
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13:15 EDTTreasury's $13 B bond reopening was solid
Treasury's $13 B bond reopening was solid. The bond priced well, stopping through at 3.240%, the richest level of the day, versus 3.265% at the bid deadline (and it compares to the 3.224% award rate for the $16 B August new issue). There were $34.7 B in bids for a 2.67 cover, better than both last month's 2.60 and the 2.42 average. Indirect bidders took 45.5% versus the the prior 45.9% and the 43.7% average. Direct bidders accepted 21.8%, a little weaker that the 24.4% in August, while primary dealers were awarded 32.8%, a little more than the prior 29.8%.
13:15 EDTTreasury Action: long yields dove on the solid bond reopening
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13:12 EDTAugust Durable Goods Orders to be released at 08:30
13:12 EDTWeek of 9/20 Jobless Claims to be released at 08:30
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12:40 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has made its way to a 1.1041 peak
FX Action: USD-CAD has made its way to a 1.1041 peak, a better than four-month high. A softer risk backdrop has weighed on the CAD, as have weaker oil and commodity prices, and USD favorable interest rate differentials. The April high of 1.1053 marks initial resistance, while above there, the 1.1070 region will be targeted.
12:35 EDTTreasury 30-year auction outlook: the $13 B reopening
Treasury 30-year auction outlook: the $13 B reopening completes this week's offering, which have so far yield rather average results. The wi is trading at 3.265%, after testing as cheap as 3.275% earlier today and as rich as 3.22% on Tuesday. Like the prior two auction legs, the impending FOMC meeting is likely to restrain demand as the Fed is universally expected to trim another $10 B from QE (it's on course to be completed in October), with the potential that the "considerable time" language is dropped in advance of rate hikes next year. With that in mind, the curve is showing a shift back to steepeners, which could be a deterrent for buyers. The auction should get solid support from an ongoing yield grab, and especially from overseas accounts. The indirect bid on yesterday's 10-year was the highest since March 2011. The August 30-year auction was awarded at 3.224% and garnered a 2.60 cover (2.42 average) and a 45.9% indirect bid (43.7% average). Direct bidders accepted 24.4% while primary dealers were awarded 29.8%.
12:12 EDTTeucrium Corn Fund volatility flat as corn trades at four-year low
Teucrium Corn Fund overall option implied volatility of 27 is near its 26-week average of 26 according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement as USDA raises U.S. corn yield forecast to record.
11:30 EDTTreasury Option Action: mulling open interest
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11:15 EDTNY Fed bought $2.314 B in notes
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11:15 EDTToday's U.S. QSS service consumption data
Today's U.S. QSS service consumption data for Q2 suggests a modest $5 B boost in service consumption in the next GDP report, and analysts now assume a boost in headline real Q2 GDP growth to 4.4% from 4.2%. For other revisions, analysts expect Q2 boosts of $7 B for construction and $2 B for net exports, but downward revisions of $2 B for wholesale inventories and $4 B for factory inventories. Analysts assume Q3 GDP growth OF 2.8%, with a 2.0% growth rate for Q3 consumption. Today's QSS data reveal a 6.5% Q2 nominal growth clip after a lean 1.5% Q1 rate and 7.7% pace in Q4 of last year, versus nominal service growth of 3.4% in Q2, 3.7% in Q1, and 6.1% in Q4. The hospital sector posted a Q2 growth bounce to 10.6% after a 5.7% contraction rate in Q1 and 13.7% growth rate in Q4 of last year, to leave what is still a notable net underperformance for the health care sector in 2014.
11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $13 B 10-yar TIPS reopening for next Thursday
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10:30 EDTEIA Natural Gas Storage Change for the week ending September 5
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10:30 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying $2.0 B to $2.5 B in notes
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10:30 EDTMore from BoJ governor Kuroda:
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10:06 EDTQuarterly Services Survey Information Revenue data reported
Quarterly Services Survey Information Revenue up 0.8% for the quarter
10:05 EDTFed Policy Outlook: analysts expect the FOMC to drop the "considerable time"
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09:47 EDTHouse Committee on Small Business to hold a hearing
The Subcommittee on Contracting and Workforce holds a hearing entitled, "The Decline in Business Formation: Implications for Entrepreneurship and the Economy" with Chief Economist Moutray of the National Association of Manufacturers and EVP Dearie of the Financial Services Forum on September 11 at 10 am. Webcast Link
09:43 EDTMarket opens lower as country commemorates 2001 attack
Stock futures weakened during the pre-market trading session, leading to a lower open for the broader market. Initial jobless claims came in higher than expected and the economic calendar is relatively quiet for the remainder of the day, with the natural gas storage change report and the Treasury budget for August due later. Last night the President outlined the U.S. strategy against ISIL on the eve of the commemoration of the September 11, 2001 attack. In early trading, the Dow is down 54 points, the Nasdaq is down 12 points and the S&P is down 5 points.
09:35 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY was smacked down to 106.65
FX Action: USD-JPY was smacked down to 106.65, after posting trend highs of 107.14 into the N.Y. open. The market appeared to have gotten a bit ahead of itself after taking out the 107 mark, with intra day longs bailing out on the return under 107. Offers are said to be thick from 107.15 all the way to 107.50, though following comments overnight from the BoJ's Kuroda, further yen strength may be fleeting. The central bank chief said he would not hesitate to ease again in order to achieve the CPI target.
09:30 EDTCan the Fed Drop "Considerable Time" Without Spooking the Markets?
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09:28 EDTCitigroup agriculture analysts to hold an analyst/industry conference call
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09:15 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures recouped some losses
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09:05 EDTU.S. equities slumped with European bourses
U.S. equities slumped with European bourses turning lower again as concerns about centrifugal forces on the continent give rise to fresh investor doubts following recent poll swings in Scotland. In addition, confirmation of the latest round of EU sanctions on Russia added to the bearish mix, leaving Russian shares 0.6-1.2% lower. The Euro Stoxx 50 is 0.5% lower, while in Asia the Nikkei rallied 0.76% thanks to USD-JPY trespassing over 6-year highs of 107.00. The Dow is 76-points lower, S&P sank 9-points and NASDAQ is off 16-points ahead of the opening bell. The 11k rebound in jobless claims wasn't particularly helpful, keeping focus on the downside. After stoking yesterday's rally following the UBS upgrade on Twitter, that micro-blogging firm sank after announcing plans to raise $1.5 B via convertible bonds. Amazon fell with the approach of the Alibaba IPO taking a toll. RadioShack remains volatile amid ongoing speculation over its dissolution and rescue.
08:50 EDTThe 11k U.S. initial claims pop to 315k
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields remained steady below highs
Treasury Action: yields remained steady below highs following the rebound in jobless claims that exceeded expectations, but weren't entirely a surprise given recent softness in jobs stats. The 10-year yield is holding under 2.52% relative to opening stock market weakness compared to 2.54% near the Tuesday close, with room for another stab to 2.50% or below at 2.44% if stocks continue to unwind. The 2s-10s spread is trading slightly narrower just inside +197 bp.
08:40 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is in the tank again
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08:40 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims rose 11k to 315k in the week ended September 6
U.S. initial jobless claims rose 11k to 315k in the week ended September 6, after rising 6k to 304k the week prior (revised from 302k). That brought the 4-week moving average to 304k from 303.25k (revised from 302.75k). Continuing claims rose 9k to 2,487k in the week ended August 30 after a 50k decline to 2,478k for the August 23 week (revised from 2,464k). The headline number is in contrast to expectations for a decline, but the Labor Day holiday may have impacted. Indeed, the BLS noted the difficulties in adjusting claims around holidays.
08:40 EDTFX Action: The dollar slipped back
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08:33 EDTFutures weaken following jobless claims data
Stock futures weakened following the release of the weekly jobless claims data. There were 315K initial claims versus the expected 300K, while continuing claims came in at 2.49M versus the expected 2.49M.
08:31 EDTJobless Claims data reported
Week of 9/6 Jobless Claims at 315K vs. consensus of 300K
08:20 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims preview:
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07:55 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:55 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are posting small gains
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are posting small gains in contrast to weaker Asian debt markets, while Europe's little rally is failing. Japanese accounts were noted buyers of the belly. The 5-year yield has fallen to 1.77%, while the 10-year has edged down to 2.52%. Trading volume was moderate. Equities are mostly lower, with the exception of the Nikkei, even as Scottish independence concerns have faded slightly. In overnight news, the RBNZ held rates steady, as expected, while Australian employment surged. German inflation was confirmed at a subdued 0.8% y/y pace. The U.K. RICS house price index slid to 40%, the lowest in a year. In the U.S. today, there's more supply today with the 30-year reopening on tap. The data calendar is light with just initial jobless claims and the August Treasury budget. The NY Fed will purchase $2.0 B to $2.5 B in intermediate notes.
07:26 EDTCredit Suisse to hold a conference
Macau Gaming Corporate Day to be held in Hong Kong on September 11.
07:25 EDTCanaccord to hold a conference
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07:23 EDTStock futures lower ahead of jobless claims data
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07:15 EDTDeutsche Bank to hold a conference
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07:12 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
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06:50 EDTFX Update: The dollar traded mostly firmer
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05:52 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for September 11
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05:47 EDTSeptember front month equity options last day to trade September 19, 2014
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04:00 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has settled around 106.80-85
FX Action: USD-JPY has settled around 106.80-85 after making a new six-year peak of 107.03 during Tokyo trade earlier. The gain reflect broad yen weakness, seen after BoJ Kuroda's assurance to PM Abe that the central bank won't hesitate to take further action should the 2% inflation target become difficult to achieve. Kuroda didn't mention the yen today, which was taken as a tacit acceptance of the currency's weakening path. He has said last month that FX moves have been consistent with fundamentals. Recent data showed that Q2 GDP data showing a 7.1% drop, largely due to the three-percentage-point rise in the sales tax to 8%, which was implemented in April. Markets continued to view the BoJ has being headed for further monetary stimulus. USD-JPY support is marked at 106.50 and 105.94-106.00.
02:25 EDTFX Update: USD-JPY clocked a fresh six-year peak
FX Update: USD-JPY clocked a fresh six-year peak 107.03, and EUR-JPY and AUD-JPY were also perky to as the yen underperformed. EUR-USD and Cable, meanwhile, were relatively steady, settling after recent volatility, with the latter consolidating the gains after a poll showed the No vote to Scottish independence back in the lead, matching a poll-of-polls headline that painted the same picture. Cable hovered on either side of 1.6200, up from the 10-month lows seen yesterday at 1.6052. A string of high-profile Scottish businesses ahead threatened to relocate across the border in England in the event of a breakaway. Analysts think concerns about the economic consequences and lure of fresh devolution pledges and constitutional reform analysts swing the significant percentage of undecideds to the No camp come the Sep-18 referendum. AUD-USD rallied today on a sharp jump in Australian employment, to 121k (a record increase) versus the expected 15k, though the magnitude of the gain caused incredulity among some analysts, while others merely pointed out that it was largely caused by a 106.7k surge in part-time workers.
September 10, 2014
16:22 EDTWeek of 9/19 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30
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16:22 EDTAugust New Home Sales to be released at 10:00
15:35 EDTU.S. weekly jobless claims preview:
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15:10 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: Yields backed up another notch at the long-end and remained elevated into the middle leg of supply in the 10-year, while the stock market first churned lower, then rebounded with a UBS upgrade on Twitter providing the catalyst. The bond market remained very wary of any alteration of FOMC policy guidance next week that could be construed as bringing forward a rate hike. Meanwhile, MBA mortgage stats were quite weak and wholesale trade data not particularly compelling.
14:35 EDTTreasury Action: the $13 B bond reopening Thursday completes the auctions
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14:05 EDTNASDAQ comp is lifting stocks from lows
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13:15 EDTTreasury's $21 B 10-year reopening was ok
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13:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields remained elevated
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12:45 EDTTreasury 10-year auction preview:
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12:45 EDTTreasury Option Action: heavy put positioning is rumored
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12:05 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has moved to session lows of 1.0956
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12:05 EDTU.S. corporate bond update:
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11:10 EDTNY Fed bought $0.433 B in TIPS
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11:08 EDTWeek of 9/19 MBA Purchase Applications to be released at 07:00
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11:00 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: some large block trades
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10:40 EDTOil Action: Front month NYMEX crude fell to $91.75
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10:30 EDTCrude Inventories for the week of September 5
Crude oil inventories 972K draw vs. consensus of 1.5M draw. Gasoline inventories 2.38M build vs. consensus of flat. Distillates 4.1M build vs. consensus of 1.0M build.
10:30 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying $0.35 B to $0.45 B in TIPS
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10:30 EDTThe U.S. wholesale trade report undershot assumptions
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10:25 EDTFX Action: The dollar shrugged off the wholesale data
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10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields remained elevated
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10:10 EDTU.S. wholesale inventories rose 0.1% in July, with sales up 0.7%
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09:40 EDTU.S. Wholesale Trade Preview
U.S. Wholesale Trade Preview: July wholesale trade data may reveal a 1.0% (median 0.6%) gain for sales following a 0.2% increase in June. Inventories are expected to be up 0.6% following a 0.3% increase in June. Data in line with this forecast would leave the I/S ratio holding steady for a third month at 1.17.
09:38 EDTMarket has relatively quiet open
Stock futures traded near fair value throughout the pre-market trading session, leading to a quiet open for the broader market. Much of the morning commentary surrounded yesterday's launches from Apple (AAPL) and how its products will affect suppliers and competitors. The market, which is currently on a three day losing streak, will hope to bounce back from yesterday’s sell-off. In early trading, the Dow is up 6 points, the Nasdaq is up 9 points and the S&P is little changed.
09:30 EDTFed Policy Outlook: the FOMC decision is a week away
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09:15 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: some put positioning
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08:45 EDTU.S. equities drifted lower
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08:44 EDTLeerink healthcare services analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
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08:35 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is down 19 cents
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08:30 EDTCanada Capacity Utilization Preview
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07:59 EDTHouse Financial Services Committee to hold a hearing
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07:58 EDTFDA Cardiovascular & Renal Drugs Advisory Committee to hold a meeting
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07:54 EDTMitsubishi UFJ to hold a conference
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07:51 EDTJPMorgan to hold a conference
London Small/Mid-Cap Conference to be held in London, England on September 10-11.
07:51 EDTFutures quiet as investors prepare for possible Fed language change
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07:50 EDTMorgan Stanley to hold a conference
Industrials CEOs Unplugged Conference to be held in London, England on September 10-11.
07:40 EDTTopeka to hold a conference
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07:40 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index sank 7.2%
U.S. MBA mortgage market index sank 7.2% in data released earlier, while the purchase index fell 2.6% and the refinancing index dove 10.7% for the week ended September 5. Mortgage rates merely rose slightly, as the average 30-year fixed rate climbed 2 basis points to a still-low 4.27%. But is was a holiday-shortened week after Labor Day Monday, punctuated by the soft August payrolls report on Friday that may not have fully captured seasonals. If not excused in this fashion, then the weak MBA report underscores the fickle nature of the housing market currently as first time buyers remain hamstrung by building down payments, careers and the like. For more detail on the housing sector, see our existing home sales, new home sales and housing starts.
07:36 EDTJefferies to hold a summit and tour
China TMT Summit & Tour to be held in Beijing, China on September 10-12.
07:35 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: global bonds remain weak
Treasury Market Outlook: global bonds remain weak with European peripheral bonds underperforming. Rising worries over a "yes" vote on Scottish referendum next week, and fears such an outcome would give heart to the Spanish independence movement continue to weigh on bonds. Adding to bearish pressures are concerns over Fed normalization with possible elimination of the "considerable time" phrase from the policy statement at next week's FOMC, and disappointment over the lack of QE from the ECB. Spain's 10-year yield is up 9 bps to 2.279%. Supply is also bearish for the 10-year Treasury ahead of this afternoon's auction. The wi yield is up about 2 bps to 2.53%. Stocks are little changed. There wasn't much news overnight. German and Italian borrowing costs declined at their respective auctions. French production numbers were stronger than expected, but the government extended its budget target out another 3 years thanks to weak growth and falling revenues. Japan's core machine orders climbed 3.5%. There's isn't a lot on the U.S. calendar. The MBA reported mortgage applications dropped 7.2% in the week ended September 5. July wholesale trade is due later this morning. The NY Fed will purchase $0.35 B to $0.45 B in TIPS.
07:34 EDTJPMorgan to hold a conference
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07:30 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:20 EDTCurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust volatility flat as yen falls to fresh six-year
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07:00 EDTFX Update: The USD saw fresh highs versus GBP, JPY and AUD
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05:55 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for September 10
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05:49 EDTSeptember front month equity options last day to trade September 19, 2014
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03:10 EDTFX Update: The yen saw fresh lows
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September 9, 2014
16:35 EDTSeptember Consumer Confidence to be released at 10:00
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16:35 EDTSeptember State Street Investor Confidence Index to be released at 10:00
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16:35 EDTWeek of 9/20 Redbook to be released at 08:55
16:35 EDTWeek of 9/20 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales to be released at 07:45
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15:15 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:45 EDTTreasury Action: the 10-year note is reopened tomorrow
Treasury Action: the 10-year note is reopened tomorrow ($21 B size), and the auction could suffer the same fate as today's given worries over next week's FOMC decision. The Fed is widely expected to trim another $10 B from QE asset purchases (ahead of an expected October end date) and adjust forward guidance, likely doing away with the "considerable time" phrase as rate lift-off draws ever nearer (though it's still many months out). The wi has cheapened 3 bps today to 2.51%. That would be the cheapest award rate in a couple of months, but that is still rich on an outright basis and may not compensate sufficiently for other risks. However, with a still very wide spread to Europe, overseas demand should remain supportive. Last month's $24 B new issue was awarded at 2.439% and saw a 2.83 cover, better than the 2.71 average, and garnered a strong 47.0% indirect bid (44.0% average).
14:15 EDTU.S. equities got an iWatch pop
U.S. equities got an iWatch pop which finally gave investors something new to cheer about, following the supersized iPhone 6s and iPay system, which lifted NASDAQ comp nearly back into the green. Treasury yields and the dollar were not impressed, however, by the modest swings on stocks.
13:25 EDTU.S. Wholesale Trade Preview
U.S. Wholesale Trade Preview: July wholesale trade data will be released on Wednesday and should reveal a 1.0% (median 0.6%) gain for sales following a 0.2% increase in June. Inventories are expected to be up 0.6% following a 0.3% increase in June. Data in line with this forecast would leave the I/S ratio holding steady for a third month at 1.17.
13:15 EDTTreasury's $27 B 3-year auction results were underwhelming
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13:15 EDTTreasury Action: 3-year yields probed higher
Treasury Action: 3-year yields probed higher in the wake of the $27 B auction, which garnered mixed results and saw the current 3-year yield probe over 1.04%, compared to overnight lows of 1.015% and the 1.066% award rate on the new notes. With Treasuries defensive ahead of any language changes in next week's FOMC statement, the Treasury may have a little challenge peddling supply this week.
12:40 EDTTreasury 3-year auction preview: the auction should go pretty well
Treasury 3-year auction preview: the auction should go pretty well thanks to the back-up in yield. The wi has cheapened to 1.065%, and a stop there would be the highest since April 2011, and the first 1.0% coupon since May 2011. The note is also somewhat cheap on the curve given the bias toward curve flatteners. There should be good sponsorship from foreign accounts thanks to the yield premium, especially with shorter dated German rates still in negative territory and easy monetary policy from the ECB expected to remain in place. On the other hand, the advent of the FOMC next week, with a good chance that the "considerable time" language is dumped, may leave buyers sidelined. Additionally there could be some worry after the SF Fed's study suggested the Treasury market maybe too complacent on interest rate risks. The note has been special in repo, but recent data suggest the short base has dwindled. And, the general tone in global bonds has turned more bearish. The August sale was awarded at 0.924% and garnered a below average 3.03 cover (3.32 average) and a solid 36.2% indirect bid (33.0% average). Direct bidders took 19.0%, while primary dealers garnered 44.8%.
12:00 EDTTreasury's $35 B 4-week bill auction was very strong
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12:00 EDTU.S. equities rolled over to lows
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11:15 EDTFed Governor Tarullo stuck to regulatory issues in his testimony
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10:55 EDTDoubleline's Gundlach sees USD-JPY at 200
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10:35 EDTTreasury Option Action: mixed positioning in the 5-year
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10:35 EDTTreasury 3-year auction outlook: the global selloff in bonds
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10:20 EDTU.S. JOLTS report showed job openings slipped 2k to 4,673k in July
U.S. JOLTS report showed job openings slipped 2k to 4,673k in July after climbing 98k to 4,675k (revised from 4,671k) in June. This breaks a string of 5 consecutive monthly increases, though it's still one of the highest levels since 2001. Hirings increased 81k to 4,872k following June's 53k rebound to 4,791k (revised from 4,830k). Quitters increased 33k to 2,517k following a 3k June decline to 2,484k (revised from 2,534k). Despite the slippage in some of the stats, the report nevertheless meshes with other data reflecting the improved labor market.
10:10 EDTShort positioning in Treasuries was trimmed
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09:50 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY losses were short lived
FX Action: USD-JPY losses were short lived, as the pairing held support into the 106 level, before bouncing back to 106.30. From here however, new selling interest is reportedly moving in from 106.40, with Japanese interest noted. Near term, analysts suspect analysts may have seen the highs for now, with a move under 106.00 likely to squeeze out dome weaker recently taken long positions. Under 106.00, standing bids are not seen until 105.75.
09:23 EDTHouse Science, Space and Technology Committee to hold a hearing
The Energy and Oversight Subcommittees examines characteristics and behavior of crude oil produced from the Bakken region in North Dakota, Montana and Canada in a joint hearing entitled, "Bakken Petroleum: The Substance of Energy Independence" on September 9 at 2 pm. Webcast Link
09:14 EDTHouse Energy & Commerce Committee to hold a hearing
The Subcommittee on Health holds a hearing entitled, "21st Century Cures: Examining the Regulation of Laboratory Developed Tests" with FDA Director Shuren on September 9 at 9:30 am. Webcast Link
09:10 EDTFed governor Tarullo will testify before the Senate Banking Committee
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08:58 EDTBernstein IT hardware analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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08:55 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: more downside positioning
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08:54 EDTBernstein internet analyst to hold an analyst/industry conference call
Internet Analyst Kirjner discusses mobile GMV, promotions, auctions, payments and logistics at Tmall from a seller's view on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on September 10 at 10 am.
08:30 EDTBrookings Institution to hold a discussion
The Energy Security Initiative hosts "The Future of U.S. Energy Security & Oil Export Policy" in Washington, D.C. on September 9 at 2 pm. Webcast Link
08:30 EDTU.S. equities are shrugging off the bullish signals
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08:20 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD traded the 1.10 handle
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08:15 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude recovered some recent losses
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08:12 EDTSenate Banking Committee holds a hearing on Wall Street Reform
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08:10 EDTU.S. ICSC Goldman Sachs chain store index rose 0.7%
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08:07 EDTBarclays industrials analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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08:04 EDTGoldman credit strategy analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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07:55 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds are sharply weaker globally
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07:45 EDTCanada Housing Starts Preview
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07:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar added to recent gains
FX Action: The dollar added to recent gains overnight, though has pulled back from trend highs versus the euro and yen into the N.Y. open. The U.S. calendar is empty again this morning, so focus will likely remain on risk and interest rate levels. Equity futures imply a marginally higher Wall Street open, while yield spreads have moved further in favor of the dollar. Analysts continue to target EUR-USD at 1.3755, the July 2013 low, though for USD-JPY, into the end of September, yen repatriation from Japanese firms may limit USD-JPY gains going forward.
07:31 EDTFDA Cardiovascular & Renal Drugs Advisory Committee to hold a meeting
The Committee discusses Forrest Laboratories New Drug Application (NDA) 206302, nebivolol/valsartan fixed-dose combination tablets, for the proposed indication of the treatment of hypertension in a meeting to be held at FDA Silver Spring, Maryland offices on September 9 at 12 pm. Webcast Link
07:24 EDTWisdom Tree Dreyfus Chinese Yuan Fund volatility flat as Yuan at six-month high
Wisdom Tree Dreyfus Chinese Yuan Fund overall option implied volatility of 11 is at its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.
07:20 EDTCitigroup to hold a conference
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07:20 EDTJPMorgan to hold a forum
Global Oil & Gas Investor Forum to be held in London, England on September 9.
07:18 EDTSeeThruEquity to hold a conference
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07:11 EDTWells Fargo to hold a forum
3rd Annual Net Lease REIT Forum to be held in New York on September 9.
07:09 EDTGlobal Technology Distribution Council to hold a summit
2014 GTDC U.S. Vendor Summit to be held in San Jose, California on September 9-10.
07:06 EDTHMG Strategy to hold a summit
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07:04 EDTBMO Capital to hold a conference
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06:50 EDTFX Update: The dollar extended to fresh highs
FX Update: The dollar extended to fresh highs on the back of favourable yield differentials. The 10-year T-note over Bund spread, for instance, has risen to new major-trend lows above 150 bp. EUR-USD clocked a new 14-month low of 1.2859, subsequently dead-cat bouncing toward 1.2900. USD-JPY rallied above its previous day's high for the eighth consecutive day, making a six-year peak of 106.39. Cable carved out a new 10-month low of 1.6064 in Asia before finding a footing back above 1.6100, finding support from strong U.K. BRC retail sales and industrial production data. The latest poll in Scotland, from TNS, suggests that the Yes and No camps are neck-an-neck. The dollar also made gains against the dollar bloc, with AUD-USD hitting three week lows and USD-CAD trading above 1.1000 for the first time since May. Elsewhere, the PBOC strengthened the yuan fix by 0.3% today, which is most since November 2010.
05:59 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for September 9
Globex S&P futures are recently down 2.30 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 0.28%, DAX down 0.14%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $93.15 natural gas up 0.54%, gold at $1257 an ounce, and copper down 0.74%.
05:47 EDTSeptember front month equity options last day to trade September 19, 2014
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02:05 EDTFX Action: The dollar extended to fresh highs
FX Action: The dollar extended to fresh highs across-the-board. USD-JPY rallied above its previous day's high for the eighth consecutive day, making a six-year peak of 106.34. EUR-USD clocked a new 14-month low of 1.2866. Cable carved out a new 10-month low of 1.6064, extending yesterday's sharp declines that were seen following a weekend poll that showed the Yes for Scottish independence vote take the lead for the first time. The latest poll, from TNS, suggests that the Yes and No camps are neck-an-neck, however, and, unlike yesterday, sterling was steady versus other currencies aside from the dollar, including against the euro and yen. The dollar also made gains against the dollar bloc, with AUD-USD hitting three week lows and USD-CAD trading above 1.1000 for the first time since May. Favourable yield differentials continue to underpin the greenback against most currencies. The 10-year Bund versus T-note spread, for instance, has slipped to new major-trend lows under -150 bp. Elsewhere, the PBOC strengthened the yuan fix by 0.3% today, which is most since November 2010.
September 8, 2014
20:15 EDTJapan's tertiary index gauge of services
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15:35 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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15:10 EDTU.S. consumer credit surged $26.0 B in July
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15:00 EDTConsumer Credit data reported
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15:00 EDTAugust Existing Home Sales to be released at 10:00
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14:25 EDTU.S. consumer credit preview:
U.S. consumer credit preview: July consumer credit is expected to increase $17.0 B (median $16.5 B), compared to $17.3 B in June. Increases in non-revolving credit are leading the the largest series of gains since 2001. Revolving credit data since late-2008 have been weak, though recent figures suggest a slow reversal in the downtrend. Forecast risk is upward, as increases have averaged $18.9 B per month since last December. preview for more.
14:20 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY printed trend highs of 106.08
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13:55 EDTTreasury Action: supply headlines this week with $61 B in coupon sales
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13:30 EDTAn SF Fed research paper on the Fed outlook
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13:25 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: the calendar remains very heavy
U.S. corporate bond update: the calendar remains very heavy even after last week's issuance was the strongest of the year so far. Most of today's offerings are longer dated domestic sales. BPCE has a $1.25 B subordinated tier 2 note. U.S. Bancorp has a benchmark 3-parter with a 3-year fixed, a 3-year FRN, and a 10-year. Kinder Morgan Energy is pricing $550 M in 30-year bonds and $650 M in 10-year notes. Starwood Hotels has benchmark 10.5-year and 20-year paper on tap. Valmont Industries has a 30-year and 40-year deal. Brandywine Operating is selling $500 M each in 10- and 15-year debt. And Nederlandse Waterschapsbank is selling benchmark 3-year notes. Hedging these deals and set up for the Treasury's $61 B in offerings has weighed on the Treasury market this afternoon.
13:10 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: a large bearish block trade
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12:05 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY is on session highs
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11:50 EDTTreasury Option Action: liquidation of a bullish position
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11:50 EDTTreasury's $49 B 3- and 6-month bill offering was very strong
Treasury's $49 B 3- and 6-month bill offering was very strong, though helped by the reduction in size. The $26 B 3-month bill (cut from $28 B last week) was awarded at 0.02%, through the 0.025% at the bid deadline. There were $139.7 B in bids for a huge 5.39 cover, versus last week's 4.58 and the 4.51 average. Indirect bidders received 26.1%, a little better than the prior 23.7% as well as the 23.0% average. The $23 B 6-month bill (trimmed from $24 B previously) was awarded at 0.045%, also inside the 0.05% at the bid deadline. Bids totaled $123.0 B for a 5.38 cover, well up from the prior 4.79 and the 4.73 average. Indirect bidders took 32.8%, better than the 24.5% last week and a little less than the 35.0% average.
11:10 EDTNY Fed bought $1.053 B in bonds
NY Fed bought $1.053 B in bonds dated from February 15, 2036 through August 15, 2043. The Street offered $4.344 B.
11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $35 B 4-week bill auction for Tuesday
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10:45 EDTBullish Bond King Gross from PIMCO Tweeted:
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10:35 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD is on session highs
FX Action: USD-CAD is on session highs, printing 1.0918, and up from 1.0886 lows in London. Softer risk taking levels, along with trend lows in oil prices weighs on the CAD, though sellers are noted in place at 1.0925. Resistance comes in at 1.0942, which represents last week's peak.
10:30 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: some bullish positioning
Euro$ interest rate options: some bullish positioning was reported with the sale of 10k in June 2015 95 puts. This is in keeping with the better bid tone on the underlying short-dated rate contracts in the wake of damp payrolls on Friday. The October 2014 contract is flat at 99.765, but the deferreds range from 0.5-4.0 ticks higher out the curve.
10:25 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying $0.95 B to $1.15 B in bonds
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09:50 EDTMarket turns mixed after quiet open
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09:30 EDTA Modest Climb Likely for August Retail Sales:
A Modest Climb Likely for August Retail Sales: Analysts expect moderate August retail sales gains of 0.4% for the headline and 0.1% ex-autos, with an early-August lift for chain store sales from back to school purchases, and a likely boost from a 6% vehicle sales pop to a 17.4 M clip. Analysts saw a 3%-4% drop in gasoline prices on the month that should translate to a decline in gasoline service station sales, and construction hours-worked posted an anemic 0.1% August rise that implies a restrained sales gain for building materials and supplies.
09:00 EDTA last minute flurry of Fedspeak
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08:55 EDTU.S. equities are back on the defensive
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08:34 EDTUrban Institute an dBrookings Institution to hold a discussion
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08:05 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are a little higher
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are a little higher, in contrast to weakness in European sovereigns, where yields are slightly higher. Action was on the light side though, with a couple of markets in Asia closed. There's some ongoing spillover from the disappointing U.S. jobs report on Friday, and mixed comments from policymakers. Overseas news was mixed, with German exports rising to record levels, while Chinese imports weaker. Also out of Europe, the Sentix Investor Sentiment measure fell into negative territory. Nevertheless, the German Bund edged up slightly to 0.927%, though the 10-year Treasury yield dropped a couple of basis points to 2.428% overnight before bouncing a bit higher to retest 2.44%. There's a light calendar in the U.S. today with only July consumer credit due. Supply headlines this week with the $61 B in coupon auctions, beginning with the $27 B 3-year note sale Tuesday.
08:05 EDTCanada Building Permit Preview
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08:00 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: Sterling was the big loser overnight, as Scottish Succession fears kicked the pound lower. Elsewhere, the dollar held its own, though eased back versus the euro, after it failed to make new trend lows. The U.S. calendar is empty to start the week, so focus will be on risk levels. Yields are steady, while equity futures indicate a modestly lower Wall Street open.
07:43 EDTArgus retail analyst to hold an analyst/industry conference call
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07:31 EDTThe Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to hold a workshop
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07:29 EDTBarron's to hold a summit
Top Financial Advisors Summit to be held in Orlando, Florida on September 8-10.
07:28 EDTScotiabank to hold a conference
Real Estate 1:1 Days Conference to be held in Toronto, Canada on September 8-9.
07:27 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
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07:27 EDTU.S. equity futures quiet in early trading
U.S. equity futures are lower this morning to begin the week. The S&P hit a record high on Friday and investors hope the market can continue its advance. Friday’s jobs data provided evidence the economy is growing at a slow to moderate pace. The President is scheduled to lay out plans this week for expanding the U.S. military campaign against ISIS including possible airstrikes in Syria. The domestic economic calendar is quiet today, with the consumer credit report, scheduled for release this afternoon, the lone economic data point.
07:26 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a forum
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07:23 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a seminar
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07:23 EDTUBS to hold a field trip
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07:22 EDTJPMorgan to hold a forum
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07:21 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
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07:12 EDTDA Davidson enterprise infrastructure analyst analyst/industry conference call
Enterprise Infrastructure Analyst Kelleher provides a weekly industry update on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on September 8 at 11 am.
07:00 EDTFX Update: A sharp dive in sterling has grabbed the limelight
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06:39 EDTCurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust volatility expected to move on vote
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05:56 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for September 8
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05:48 EDTSeptember front month equity options last day to trade September 19, 2014
03:05 EDTFX Update: Sterling took a hit
FX Update: Sterling took a hit at the commencement of trade on news that the Yes for Scottish independence vote had taken the lead for the first time in polls. The referendum will take place on Sep-18. Cable dove sharply from 1.6325 to a 10-month low of 1.6164 and EUR-GBP spiked above 0.8000 before settling back just under here. Elsewhere, trade was pretty quiet. EUR-USD remained heavy in ebbing south of 1.2950, finding support at 1.2931, but remained above last week's post-ECB meeting low of 1.2920. USD-JPY remained well within its range from Friday, consolidating in the low 105s. News that Japan's Q2 GDP was revised down to -7.1% from -6.8% didn't have much FX impact. Stocks in Asia were mixed-to-higher despite Japan's data, as China trade figures showed above-expectations exports.
September 7, 2014
16:54 EDTReports of fighting in eastern Ukraine threatens peace agreement, WSJ says
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08:34 EDTConsumer Sentiment Index to be reported at 09:55
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08:34 EDTRetail Sales less autos to be reported at 08:30
August Retail Sales less autos will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 0.3% for the month
08:34 EDTImport Prices data reported.
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08:34 EDTWholesale Trade Inventories to be reported at 10:00
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September 5, 2014
15:10 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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21:22 EDTLeading Indicators to be reported at 10:00
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13:35 EDTFedspeak for the week ahead will be limited
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13:10 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: some large "downside skew packages"
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11:50 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY took one brief look at the 105.00
FX Action: USD-JPY took one brief look at the 105.00 level after falling from 105.70 overnight, to lows of 104.68 by mid-morning. With a new trend peak successfully printed, profit taking was the main driver in Tokyo, while disappointing U.S. jobs data knocked another layer of longs out of their positions. From here, analysts may well have seen the pairing's best levels for a while, with consolidation expected until the market gets a better feel for what the BoJ's next move will be on the policy front.
11:20 EDTTreasury Action: supply factors into next week's action
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11:00 EDTEstonia says officer abducted near Russian border, DJ reports
11:00 EDTU.S. Payroll Growth Stuck on Sideways:
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10:20 EDTRussian equities traded 1.4-1.8% higher
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10:10 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: a leg up from weak payrolls
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09:36 EDTMarket opens lower following disappointing jobs report
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09:35 EDTFor the U.S. jobs data impact on quarterly forecasts
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09:30 EDTFed Policy Outlook: one month's data won't alter the FOMC's trajectory
Fed Policy Outlook: one month's data won't alter the FOMC's trajectory. The overall report still reflects an improving job market, albeit at a very laborious pace and despite massive amounts of stimulus. Nevertheless, the headline employment figures were disappointing, and the unemployment rate dipped for the "wrong" reason, which will give Chair Yellen and the doves the upper hand for now and will keep most policymakers treading lightly with respect to policy normalization. The FOMC will continue to trim QE by $10 B at the upcoming September 16, 17 meeting and bring the buybacks to an end in October. Of significance, however, will be the nuances in the language of the policy statement which could portend the likely timing of rate lift-off. The FOMC can credibly state that there is "sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing improvement in labor market conditions." While the Fed could alter its "considerable period" phrase, it still might retain that key language at this point if it thinks the first rate hike is closer to mid 2015 than earlier. Analysts still expect policymakers to provide more clues on the normalization tools since Yellen will have the opportunity to more fully elaborate on them at the press conference.
09:15 EDTUkraine signs cease-fire agreement with rebels, Bloomberg reports
09:15 EDTFor the jobs data impact on other August reports
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09:10 EDTTreasury Option Action: some selling of volatility
Treasury Option Action: some selling of volatility was reported into the open with a sale of 2k in October 125 straddles, though there certainly has been some chop in the wake of subpar payrolls in August. December 10-year futures are 14-ticks higher near 125-135 on the payrolls whiff, compared to a 125-215 to 124-26 range on Globex.
09:10 EDTThe lean 142k U.S. August payroll climb
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08:55 EDTU.S. equities snapped back from lows
U.S. equities snapped back from lows after shortfall on August nonfarm payrolls bought some breathing room on the Fed outlook (bad is good) and offset overnight markets turning cautious before the jobs data and Ukraine talks in Minsk. The Euro Stoxx 50 settled 0.4% lower after the ECB's measures yesterday stopped shy of full blown QE and got a more sober reading by the markets with Eurozone GDP confirmed at 0%. Yet, U.S. indices cut their losses after the payrolls result. The Dow is in shallow negative territory, S&P is up marginally and NASDAQ 7-points firmer in pre-open trade. In corporate news, Gap sank 6% after same-store sales faltered in August, while Prana Biotechnology vaulted 21% after an upgrade on one of its drugs. Michael Kors sank 4.5% after equity dilution.
08:50 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD was dragged lower
FX Action: USD-CAD was dragged lower in the immediate aftermath of the twin U.S. and Canadian jobs report, falling from 1.0895 from 1.0840, as the greenback was hit broadly from the U.S. NFP miss. The weak Canadian employment report however quickly trumped, and USD-CAD has shot back up to 1.0900. The pairing has run into offers from 1.0900, stopping the run higher for now at least.
08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar slipped broadly
FX Action: The dollar slipped broadly after the big NFP miss, taking EUR-USD to 1.2989 from near 1.2950. USD-JPY fell under 104.75 from 104.15. Yields moved lower, as equity futures pared losses, perhaps on hopes the Fed punch bowl will remain.
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields reversed lower
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08:40 EDTU.S. nonfarm payrolls increased only 142k in August
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08:34 EDTFutures fall following jobs data
Stock futures moved lower following the release of the monthly jobs report. The data showed that 142K nonfarm jobs were added versus the expected addition of 230K jobs. The private sector added 134K jobs versus the expected 215K gain. The unemployment rate fell to 6.1% from last month’s 6.2%.
08:30 EDTU.S. August nonfarm payrolls rise 142K , Unemployment falls to 6.1%
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08:25 EDTU.S. Employment Preview
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08:10 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is up 4 cents
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07:45 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar posted new highs against the yen, taking USD-JPY to 105.70, before settling back into 105.20 into the open. Solid profit taking interest was noted in Tokyo, into the weekend. EUR-USD meanwhile, ticked back over 1.2960 after failing to test Thursday's post-ECB lows of 1.2920. The August U.S. employment report will be the main driver this morning, though given dollar gains seen this week, the NFP print will likely have to handily beat median forecasts of 220k to get the greenback much higher. Profit taking could be in the cards into the weekend.
07:45 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed
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07:28 EDTFutures quiet ahead of jobs report
U.S. equity futures are slightly lower ahead of the release of the monthly nonfarm payrolls report. Analysts predict that the economy added 230K nonfarm jobs and 215K service jobs, while the unemployment rate is expected to drop to 6.1% from 6.2%. The data is due out at 8:30 am ET.
05:56 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for September 5
Globex S&P futures are recently down 4.90 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 down 0.05%, DAX up 0.15%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $94.94, natural gas up 0.13%, gold at $1265 an ounce, and copper up 0.19%.
05:47 EDTSeptember front month equity options last day to trade September 19, 2014
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02:20 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY logged new highs while EUR-USD consolidated
FX Action: USD-JPY logged new highs while EUR-USD consolidated the steep losses seen yesterday in the wake of the ECB's unexpected easing, holding above the 14-month low of 1.2920 in a narrow range that was capped by 1.2949. USD-JPY, meanwhile, rallied in early Tokyo through last December's major-trend peaks to a new high of 105.70, before subsequently ebbing back to the 105.30-40 area. The bid in USD-JPY was reportedly sparked by 'Gotobi' importer demand, which was quickly added to be stop- and option-related buying amid a bullish sentiment due to higher U.S. yields and expectations for a strong U.S. employment report today. Exporter offers and profit taking drove the retreat back under 105.50. Elsewhere, Cable edged out a new seven-month low of 1.6287. AUD-USD saw a narrow 0.9332-0.9341 range.
02:01 EDTWeek of 9/17 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
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02:01 EDTWeek of 9/8 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
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September 4, 2014
16:32 EDTFed Balance Sheet Total Assets data reported
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16:32 EDTMoney Supply M2 Weekly Change data reported
Week of 8/25 Money Supply M2 Weekly Change at $14.5B
16:05 EDTWeek of 9/12 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 10:30
16:05 EDTSeptember Philadelphia Fed Survey to be released at 10:00
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15:00 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:55 EDTCanada Productivity Preview
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14:55 EDTCanada Ivey PMI Preview
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14:50 EDTCanada Employment Preview
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14:25 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: another very full calendar
U.S. corporate bond update: another very full calendar is adding to the heaviness in Treasuries. CSFB has a $3 B 10-year deal on tap. Bank of NY Mellon is selling $2 B in a 3-part offering, including $1.15 B in 5-year notes, a $500 M 10-year, and a $350 M 5-year FRN. Barclays launched a $1.25 B 10-year note. American Honda Finance is selling $1 B in 5-year notes and $500 M in a 2-year FRN. Bank of Nova Scotia launched a $1.5 B 5-year covered bond. There are also a number of big high-yield deals on tap.
14:10 EDTU.S. Employment Preview
U.S. Employment Preview: August employment will be released Friday and should reveal a 210k (median 220k) gain for nonfarm payrolls on the heels of last month's 209k gain. There are a number of factors contributing to upside risk for tomorrow's release from strong producer sentiment and consumer confidence to firm vehicle assemblies all of which analysts discussed in Monday's commentary.
13:50 EDTMore Mester: she wants the Fed to communicate the proximity to its goals
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21:22 EDTHousing Starts to be reported at 08:30
August Housing Starts will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 1.038M
21:22 EDTJobless Claims to be reported at 08:30
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13:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields remain stuck below highs
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13:10 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD sold off to 1.0821 lows
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12:50 EDTCleveland Fed's Mester struck a slightly more hawkish tone
Cleveland Fed's Mester struck a slightly more hawkish tone in her first public speech (The Economics Outlook, Monetary Policy, and Communications: Progress on Multiple Journeys) since taking the helm in June from retired president Pianalto. She said it's time to "reformulate its forward guidance." She seems a little more upbeat on the labor market than Yellen, noting "steady improvement in in labor market conditions," including "substantial improvement" in the unemployment rate. However, she does add the caveat that the "labor market's journey is not yet complete." She expects growth over the next 6 quarters to be somewhat above her trend forecasts. The balance sheet will remain very large, even after QE ends, and will complicate the normalization process. She refrained from giving any time frame to rate hikes. She is a voter this year. Note too that she began her Fed career in Philadelphia, which is led by one of the most hawkish on the FOMC.
12:20 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY continues to struggle
FX Action: USD-JPY continues to struggle over 1.0500, printing 105.25 highs as it runs into reported Japanese exporter offers. Overall however, analysts look for further yen downside, on the view that the BoJ is heading for fresh monetary stimulus to counter the impact of the sales tax hike. The January USD-JPY high of 105.44 is in the market's sights now, though analysts suspect a test will only come this week on the back of a better U.S. employment report on Friday. In the meantime, support is seen into 104.75.
11:40 EDTDavid Tepper of Appaloosa: "beginning of the end" of the bond market bubble
David Tepper of Appaloosa: "beginning of the end" of the bond market bubble has occurred as thanks to the ECB decision to cut rates, he said on Bloomberg TV. A perennial bull on stocks, the hedge fund manager's comments may have added to some weakness in the defensive bond market on the margin following the ECB's decisions, though the bank still hasn't ruled out full-blown QE however controversial to some members. Just why the decision in Europe marks the end of the bull run in bonds remains to be explained, especially after global bonds have kept a lid on U.S. yields for some time and the ECB is more worried about downside risks in Europe.
11:20 EDTTreasury Option Action: bearish positioning
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11:15 EDTNY Fed bought $1.616 B in shorter notes
NY Fed bought $1.616 B in shorter notes maturing between December 31, 2018 through April 30, 2019. The Street offered $9.429 B. The bond market has extended its declines with the 5-year yield now up nearly 5 bps to 1.717%.
11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $61 3-pronged package of coupon auctions
Treasury announced a $61 3-pronged package of coupon auctions for next week. This includes $27 B in 3-year notes (Tuesday), $21 B in reopened 10s (Wednesday), and $13 B in reopened 30s (Thursday). Treasury also outlined a $49 B 3- and 6-month bill sale for Monday. That's a $3 B cut from this week's volume, with $2 B shaved from the 3-month tranche to $26 B, while the 6-month bill was trimmed by $1 B to $23 B.
11:00 EDTCrude Inventories for the week of August 29
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11:00 EDTToday's U.S. reports
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10:55 EDTFed Policy Outlook: data continue to reflect the ongoing economic gains
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10:35 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying $1.4 B to $1.7 B in notes
NY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying $1.4 B to $1.7 B in notes dated from September 30, 2018 through May 31, 2019. The buyback isn't providing much support to the bond market that is under pressure from the stronger than expected data and the declines in Bunds. The 5-year yield is over 3 bps higher at 1.705%.
10:30 EDTEIA Natural Gas Storage Change for the week ending August 29
Gas inventories 79 Bcf build vs. consensus of 75 Bcf build.
10:30 EDTThe U.S. ISM-NMI August climb to a 59.6 nine-year high
The U.S. ISM-NMI August climb to a 59.6 nine-year high extended the July surge to 58.7 from 56.0 in June, just as the ISM-adjusted measure rose to a 57.9 eight-year high from 57.2 in July and 55.5 in June. The August headline has climbed well above the 51.6 four-year low in February, just as the ISM-adjusted measure has risen well above the 51.4 two-year low in February. The ISM-NMI has enjoyed the same Q3 lift evident in the Q3 factory surveys that analysts attribute to the July vehicle assembly rate pop. For the August factory surveys, the ISM rose to 59.0 from 57.1, the Chicago PMI surged to 64.3 from 52.6, the Dallas Fed dropped to 7.1 from 12.7, the Richmond Fed bounced to 12.0 from 7.0, the Philly Fed rose to 28.0 from 23.9, and the Empire State declined to 14.69 from 24.60. The mix of major sentiment readings left the ISM-adjusted average at the same 56 cycle-high seen in July, as well as February and March of 2011, versus 54 through Q2, 52 through Q1, and a 53 average in Q3 and Q4 of 2013.
10:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields stabilized higher
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10:15 EDTU.S. ISM non-manufacturing index rose to 59.6 in August
U.S. ISM non-manufacturing index rose to 59.6 in August, better than expected, versus the 58.7 in July. The August number is the best since August 2005. The business activity index climbed to 65.0 from 62.4. The employment component improved to 57.1 from 56.0. New orders dipped to 63.8, however, from 64.9 which was the highest going all the way back to August 2003. New export orders fell to 52.5, not too surprising given the slowing in growth in Europe and parts of Asia, from 53.0. Prices paid declined to 57.7 from 60.9. The composite services and manufacturing index increased to 59.1 from 58.3.
10:10 EDTThe largely expected July U.S. trade deficit drop to $40.5 B
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09:55 EDTU.S. Markit services PMI (final) improved to 59.5 in August
U.S. Markit services PMI (final) improved to 59.5 in August versus the 58.5 flash print, and but is still below July's 60.8. The index was at a record high of 61.0 in June. Similarly, the composite index edged up to 59.7 for the final print compared to the flash reading of 58.8 and versus the final 60.6 in July.
09:50 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: mostly firmer amid slow flows
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09:42 EDTMarket opens higher after ECB announcement, U.S. data
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09:40 EDTU.S. ISM services preview:
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09:10 EDTU.S. equities largely sustained gains
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09:05 EDTThe revised Q2 U.S. productivity figures
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08:55 EDTFX Action: The dollar is higher against the euro
FX Action: The dollar is higher against the euro, and lower versus the yen after the mix of U.S. data, and the ECB press conference. EUR-USD traded the 1.29 handle for the first time since July of 2013, as USD-JPY fell to 104.77 from 105.00. The jobs, trade, productivity and jobless claims data have been overshadowed by the ECB's announcement of QE, which has come as quite a surprise to most in the market.
08:50 EDTU.S. Q2 nonfarm productivity growth was revised lower to 2.3%
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08:50 EDTThe 4k U.S. initial claims up-tick to 302k
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08:45 EDTU.S. jobless claims rose 4k to 302k in the week ended August 30
U.S. jobless claims rose 4k to 302k in the week ended August 30 from 298k previously. That brought the 4-week average up to 302.75k from 299.75k. Continuing claims dove 64k to 2,464k versus a revised 2,528k (was 2,527k). Data are in line with out forecast and are consistent with the ongoing improvement in the job market this year, albeit at a rather moderate pace.
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields remained subdued
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08:40 EDTU.S. trade deficit narrowed slightly to $40.5 B in July
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08:36 EDTFutures remain higher following economic data
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08:35 EDTECB to start buying simple ABS, Bloomberg reports
Draghi says bond purchases, TLTRO will have "sizable impact" on balance sheet, according to Bloomberg. Draghi added that the ECB has a unanimous commitment to other measures if needed, Bloomberg noted.
08:32 EDTJobless Claims data reported
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08:30 EDTThe 204k August ADP rise almost exactly matched our 205k
The 204k August ADP rise almost exactly matched our 205k August private payroll forecast, alongside an estimated 210k overall payroll gain, following a downward July revision to 212k (was 218k) that narrowed the gap to the 198k BLS private payroll increase. The component mix of the August ADP rise also nearly matched our assumptions, with a 41k goods employment increase that included a 15k construction gain and a 23k factory rise, alongside a 164k increase for service sector jobs. The "as reported" ADP figures have run 26k/month weaker than private payrolls over the twenty-two months since the October 2012 methodology change by Moody's, with recent overshoots of 21k in July and 11k in June, but prior undershoots of 49k in May, 58k in April, 9k in March, and 62k in February. The ADP as-reported average absolute error over the last twenty-two months is 48k. for a discussion of the risks in tomorrow's jobs data.
08:30 EDTU.S. trade deficit preview:
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08:30 EDTTreasury Action: yields took a dive after ADP
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08:30 EDTU.S. Q2 productivity preview:
U.S. Q2 productivity preview: Q2 nonfarm productivity should be revised to 2.3% in the second release from 2.5% initially and -3.2% in Q1. Analysts expect unit labor costs to be 0.8% from 0.6% initially and 11.8% last quarter. Output growth was 3.2% following a 2.4% dip in Q1. Productivity growth slowed sharply in the first half of 2011 and has remained subdued since and beyond quarterly gyrations, analysts've seen a flattening in productivity growth over the past two years. preview for more detail.
08:30 EDTU.S. weekly jobless claims preview:
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08:29 EDTIPath Dow Jones-AIG Grains Total Return Sub-Index volatility flat, grains lower
IPath Dow Jones-AIG Grains Total Return Sub-Index overall option implied volatility of 27 is at its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.
08:25 EDTU.S. ADP reported private payrolls increased 204k in August
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08:22 EDTTeucrium Wheat Fund volatility flat as wheat trends lower
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08:21 EDTTeucrium Soybean Fund volatility flat as soybeans trend lower
Teucrium Soybean Fund overall option implied volatility of 22 is at its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.
07:55 EDTU.S. Challenger reported announced layoffs declined 6.9k in August
U.S. Challenger reported announced layoffs declined 6.9k in August to 40.0k, after climbing 15.5k to 46.9k in July (data are not seasonally adjusted). The pace of job announced job cuts is down 20.7% y/y. Announced hiring also fell 6.9k to 9.7k.
07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries have dipped lower
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07:50 EDTU.S. ADP employment survey preview:
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07:49 EDTEuropean Central Bank lowers benchmark rate to .05% from .15%
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07:45 EDTECB lowers benchmark rate to .05%
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07:37 EDTChallenger Job-Cut Report Announced Layoffs data reported
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07:23 EDTFutures higher ahead of full slate of economic data
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07:01 EDTBank of England keeps benchmark rate unchanged at 0.5%
The Bank of England voted to maintain Bank Rate at 0.5%. The Committee also voted to maintain the stock of purchased assets financed by the issuance of central bank reserves at 375B pounds.
06:50 EDTFX Action: Narrow ranges prevailed
FX Action: Narrow ranges prevailed ahead of the potentially market-moving ECB meeting today and tomorrow's U.S. jobs report. The BoJ announced unchanged policy as was widely anticipated, and reaffirmed its commitment to the Y60-70 tln annual expansion in the monetary base. USD-JPY lifted modestly and recovered the 105.0 handle after BoJ Kuroda said that a firmer USD-JPY rate would be in balance with fundamentals. Yesterday's peak at 105.31 remained unchallenged. EUR-USD also remained below its high from yesterday at 1.3160. While the ECB is unlikely to announce the broad based asset purchases, Draghi will likely re-affirm his commitment to such a step on the back of downward revisions to the central bank's growth and inflation forecasts. GBP was steady. The BoE's upcoming announcement is likely to be a non-event for markets as a no change, no statement outcome is all but a certainty AUD-USD settled in the mid-0.93s after briefly extending to a one-week high of 0.9364 during the Sydney session on a firm Australian retail sales number.
06:42 EDTTeucrium Corn Fund volatility flat as corn trades near four-year lows
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05:54 EDTSeptember front month equity options last day to trade September 19, 2014
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03:15 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY up on BoJ Kuroda remarks
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02:15 EDTFX Update: Narrow ranges prevailed
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