New User:

-or-
Username:
Password:
Forgot your password?

Stock Market & Financial Investment News

News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
Sign up for a free trial to see the rest of the stories you've been missing.
<< 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | all recent NOSYMBOL news | >>
July 28, 2015
15:20 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Subscribe for More Information
14:50 EDTTreasury Action: there are several more auctions this week
Treasury Action: there are several more auctions this week with the 5-year sale and 2-year FRN Wednesday, both prior to the FOMC announcement, and a 7-year sale Thursday. The results may not be as solid as today's 2-year auction given the proximity of the Fed. Yields have backed up today, with the wi 5-year note up 2.5 bps to 1.600% and the wi 7-year up 3.1 bps to 1.990%. However, the concessions may not be sufficient to bring in buyers as those rates are much lower than June's stops at 1.710% and 2.153%, respectively. The 7-year might benefit from the fact the Fed will be out of the way, and may see some month-end flows.
14:30 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY made 123.51 lows
Subscribe for More Information
14:05 EDTTreasury Option Action: mostly mixed positioning
Subscribe for More Information
13:50 EDTAverages, internals very positive in afternoon trading
Subscribe for More Information
13:40 EDTU.S. equities are extending their rally
U.S. equities are extending their rally and are trading up around 1% across the board with some relief that China didn't continue to melt down at the same pace, while WTI oil has bubbled back up above $48 bbl again - supporting resource stocks. Recent market volatility has quelled any lingering concern that the Fed make hike sooner, pushing those expectations to the very back end of 2015, with December now favored over September by many. Indeed, within the Dow the top performers are Exxon +3.7%, CAT +3.4% and Chevron +3.0%, while du Pont -0.8%, Verizon -0.13% and UT -0.1% are the underperformers.
13:15 EDTTreasury 2-year auction garnered solid demand
Subscribe for More Information
13:15 EDTTreasury Action: short yields cooled off a tad
Subscribe for More Information
13:00 EDTTreasury Option Action: volatility is drifting lower
Treasury Option Action: volatility is drifting lower into the start of the 2-day FOMC meeting, with September 10s stuck around 127-00, say sources. Among the major themes were outright sales of Sep bond puts (risk reversals), sales of 10k in September 127/126 put 1x2s (roll down of strike) and call butterfly exits. Other trades included bearish purchases of 4k in September 125.5 puts, 3k in September 126 puts, 4k in September 124 puts and 1.5k in September 126.5/125.5/124.5 put butterflies. There was also a bearish seller of 4k in September 128/129/130 call butterflies (exit). September 10s are still stuck at 127-00, compared to a tight 127-075 to 126-26 range.
12:40 EDTTreasury 2-year auction preview: market opinions are mixed
Treasury 2-year auction preview: market opinions are mixed on the auction, in large part due to uncertainties over the FOMC and the degree of hawkishness in tomorrow's policy statement. Meanwhile, there's only been a small outright concession on the note, as the wi has backed up to 0.69%, though it was at 0.700% earlier. The curve, however is a little steeper as the front end outperforms. Supporting expectations for a good reception to the auction is the modest concession, where a stop here would be the second highest of the year. The new cash need is also small. Many are starting to price out Fed liftoff in September too. Month-end buying could also come into play, while investment fund demand has been on the rise. On the other hand, trading volume has been limited by summer conditions, and the advent of the Fed could keep many potential buyers sidelined. There is some fear the note isn't priced sufficiently for a hawkish Fed. And volatility amid Chinese woes may also undermine. The June offering stopped at 0.692% and garnered a 3.28 cover (3.42 average) with a 52.6% indirect bid (39.9% average).
12:25 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has fallen to one-week lows
Subscribe for More Information
12:17 EDTS&P revises Brazil outlook to negative; ratings affirmed
Subscribe for More Information
12:15 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: some bullish positioning
Subscribe for More Information
11:40 EDTTreasury's $40 B 4-week bill auction results were mixed
Treasury's $40 B 4-week bill auction results were mixed. The bill stopped through at 0.050% compared to 0.055% at the bid deadline, and compared to last week's 0.035%. There were $138.2 B in bids for a 3.47 cover, below last week's 3.52 and the 3.74 average. Indirect bidders took 25.4% versus 22.2% previously and the 22.2% average.
11:20 EDTU.S. RJ/CRB total return index is 11.5% lower
U.S. RJ/CRB total return index is 11.5% lower on the year near 204 presently, right at the bottom of its 203.17-299.44 52-week range. On the day its up 0.4% after closing at 203.21 following China's equity implosion yesterday. With WTI crude oil lingering below $48 bbl and commodity prices at the lowest level since the financial crisis, the Fed may have to wait a bit longer before reaching its inflation goal, regardless of how urgently it would like to lift rates from zero.
11:15 EDTFed Policy Outlook: the meeting is underway
Subscribe for More Information
10:40 EDTTreasury 2-year auction outlook: Treasury kicks off its $90 B
Treasury 2-year auction outlook: Treasury kicks off its $90 B in coupon auctions with today's $26 B offering. Some concession building overnight boosted the wi 0.70%, though it's come down to 0.69% currently. The note traded as rich as 0.67% yesterday. The advent of the FOMC decision with the potential that the statement hints at a September rate hike could make for a somewhat difficult auction. Buyers could sit this one out as the outlook for Fed action has become quite uncertain. Also, the corporate calendar is heavy and is competing with the Treasury today. Historical data shows a stop here would be the highest since the 0.703% from December. The June offering stopped at 0.692% and garnered a 3.28 cover (3.42 average) with a 52.6% indirect bid (39.9% average).
10:30 EDTU.S. Richmond Fed factory index rose to 13.0 in July
Subscribe for More Information
10:25 EDTChina tumult will cause Fed to delay lift-off
China tumult will cause Fed to delay lift-off according to a Goldman survey of investors, reported late yesterday by the WSJ Grand Central blog. Chief equity strategist Kostin was quoted accordingly: "Our recent client meetings reveal that many investors believe economic uncertainty in China will cause the Fed to delay tightening until 2016." Certainly few see any risk of a hike as early as tomorrow, though the language could possibly be updated to weight global growth risks and lower commodity prices. But, more are arguing for a deferral to 2016 thanks to fresh jitters related to Greece and China, and more importantly risk of a deeper financial correction. (subscription).
10:15 EDTU.S. consumer confidence fell to 90.9 in July
Subscribe for More Information
10:15 EDTyields dipped briefly
Treasury Action: yields dipped briefly following the plunge in consumer confidence in June, which marked the lowest level since September 2014. But stocks continue to churn in shallow positive territory and yields quickly stabilized again. The T-note yield probed 2.25% from 2.266% session highs after rising from 2.21% lows yesterday ahead of the 2.17% July low . The 2s-10s spread continues to steepen back out to the +160 bp area. The dollar slipped.
10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar moved lower
Subscribe for More Information
10:12 EDTRichmond Fed Manufacturing Index Level data reported
Subscribe for More Information
10:12 EDTState Street Investor Confidence Index data reported
July State Street Investor Confidence Index at 114.6
10:12 EDTConsumer Confidence data reported
Subscribe for More Information
09:55 EDTU.S. Markit flash services PMI rose to 55.2 in July
Subscribe for More Information
09:45 EDTU.S. Consumer Confidence Preview
U.S. Consumer Confidence Preview: July consumer confidence should reveal a decline to 100.0 (median 100.0) from 101.4 in June. This would come along side a decline in Michigan Sentiment to 93.3 in the first July release from 96.1 in June. The IBD/TIPP poll for the month managed to hold steady at 48.1 for a second month.
09:43 EDTMarket opens higher despite another slide in Chinese stocks
Subscribe for More Information
09:39 EDTCowen retail analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Subscribe for More Information
09:25 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD dipped under 1.3000
Subscribe for More Information
09:25 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: it's a busy day in corporate land
Subscribe for More Information
09:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields remain near highs
Subscribe for More Information
09:10 EDTU.S. Case Shiller home price index rose 1.1% in May to 179.03
Subscribe for More Information
09:01 EDTS&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index data reported.
Subscribe for More Information
09:01 EDTRedbook Store Sales data reported
Week of 7/25 Redbook Store Sales up 1.0% for the year
08:50 EDTU.S. S&P Case-Shiller home price preview:
U.S. S&P Case-Shiller home price preview: Case-Shiller home prices are forecast to rise 1.7% to 180.2 in May from 177.0 in April. For more detail on home price trends, see our new home sales report.
08:30 EDTU.S. equities recovered their composure
Subscribe for More Information
08:30 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude fell to four-month lows
Subscribe for More Information
08:20 EDTTreasury Action: bonds look vulnerable to a selloff
Subscribe for More Information
08:14 EDTHouse Financial Services Committee to hold a hearing
The Committee holds a hearing entitled, "Dodd-Frank Act 5 Years Later: Are We More Prosperous?" on July 28 at 10 am. Webcast Link
08:10 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds are lower in heavy volume
Treasury Market Outlook: bonds are lower in heavy volume as a rebound in stocks pared safe haven flows overnight. Treasuries are underperforming with the 10-year yield up over 3 bps to 2.25%. Treasuries are also down ahead of the FOMC meeting and with the advent of supply as the $90 B in coupon offerings begin. U.S. equity futures and European bourses are on the mend, though Asian share markets were mostly lower with China's Shanghai down another 1.7% (but pared a better than 5% decline). Losses slowed there after official implemented new measures to boost equities. There wasn't much market moving data out. UK preliminary GDP rose 0.7% q/q. In the U.S., the FOMC begins its 2-day meeting. No surprises are expected. Earnings news will be important with Anadarko, Ford, Gilead, Merck, Pfizer, Reynolds, UPS, LVMH, Yelp, Wyndham Worldwide, Panera Bread, and GrubHub to name a few. There's not a lot of data on today's slate, with just July consumer confidence, preliminary Markit services PMI, the May Case-Shiller home price index, the July Richmond Fed manufacturing index, and weekly chain store sales. The Treasury sells $26 B in 2-year notes.
08:10 EDTU.S. chain store sales dipped 0.2% in the week ended July 25
Subscribe for More Information
08:05 EDTBudget battles unlikely to derail Fed rate plans:
Budget battles unlikely to derail Fed rate plans: risk of the traditional fall budget showdown and potential government closures have been factored in by the Fed in the past, but WSJ's Hilsenrath thinks it may be different this time around and not be an impediment to a rate hike. "First, Republicans have made it clear they want to avoid a repeat of past shutdowns. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky) vowed last year -- after the GOP won control of the Senate -- there would be no more shutdowns or threats of debt market disruptions. Last week House Speaker John Boehner (R., Ohio) said Congress would likely pass a short-term funding bill to keep the government operating past September. Second, the market backdrop is different today than it was in September 2013. Back then, Fed officials were worried about a 'taper tantrum' in bond markets that pushed interest rates higher in anticipation of a Fed move and knocked emerging markets. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes have held steadily between 2.0-2.5% since mid-February. Third, the Fed is closer to its goal of full employment now and broader headwinds from tight government budgets have diminished."
08:00 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
Subscribe for More Information
08:00 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds are lower in heavy volume
Treasury Market Outlook: bonds are lower in heavy volume as a rebound in stocks pared safe haven flows overnight. Treasuries are underperforming with the 10-year yield up over 3 bps to 2.25%. Treasuries are also down ahead of the FOM meeting and with the advent of supply as the $90 B n coupon offerings begin. U.S. equity futures and European bourses are on the mend, though Asian share markets were mostly lower with China's Shanghai down another 1.7%. Losses slowed there after official implemented new measures to boost equities. There wasn't much market moving data out. UK preliminary GDP rose 0.7% q/q. In the U.S., the FOMC begins its 2-day meeting. No surprises are expected. Earnings news will be important with Anadarko, Ford, Gilead, Merck, Pfizer, Reynolds, UPS, LVMH, Yelp, Wyndham Worldwide, Panera Bread, and GrubHub to name a few. There's not a lot of data on today's slate, with just July consumer confidence, preliminary Markit services PMI, the May Case-Shiller home price index, the July Richmond Fed manufacturing index, and weekly chain store sales. The Treasury sells $26 B in 2-year notes.
07:31 EDTBoard of Governors of the Federal Reserve System holds closed meeting
Subscribe for More Information
07:30 EDTHouse Energy & Commerce Committee to hold a hearing
Subscribe for More Information
07:25 EDTFX Update: Chinese stock markets continued to wield influence
Subscribe for More Information
06:46 EDTSuntory Holdings not considering IPO at this time, Reuters reports
Subscribe for More Information
06:46 EDTFutures suggest market bounce at open
Subscribe for More Information
06:00 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for July 28
Subscribe for More Information
05:48 EDTAugust front month equity options last day to trade is August 21, 2015
Subscribe for More Information
02:40 EDTFX Update: The AUD saw volatile trade
Subscribe for More Information
00:05 EDTChinese equities rebounded from lows
Subscribe for More Information
July 27, 2015
16:34 EDT 6-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
Subscribe for More Information
16:34 EDT 3-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
Subscribe for More Information
16:34 EDT 4-Week Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
14:55 EDTTreasury Action: Treasury sells $26 B in 2-year notes Tuesday
Subscribe for More Information
14:50 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: The bond market got a lift from the downdraft in stocks, which resumed with a vengeance overnight in China and spread like the flu to Europe and Wall Street. A robust verbal defense of the Chinese markets came from its rescue fund spokesman, which implied that official buyers will be back in tomorrow and denied any wind down of the support program. But equities remained jittery and yields settled lower, despite the proximity of the FOMC meeting later in the week. Commodites also remained soft, while durables surged thanks to Boeing and the Dallas Fed index ticked up from recent lows.
14:20 EDTTreasury Option Action: light call selling on bonds
Subscribe for More Information
14:05 EDTCanada Industrial Product Price Index Preview
Subscribe for More Information
13:52 EDTMarket heads back toward lows in afternoon trading
Subscribe for More Information
13:45 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has stabilized
Subscribe for More Information
13:25 EDTThe confidence game in China
Subscribe for More Information
12:15 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has been steady
FX Action: USD-CAD has been steady over 1.3000, but for a quick dip to 1.2994 lows earlier. The weak commodity backdrop continues to weigh on the CAD, as WTI crude hit fresh lows of $47.22. The pairing remains off its trend high however, as profit taking has been a factor over the past session. The near 8% rise in USD-CAD over the past month or so has likely resulted in a crowded long trade, and analysts expect some of recent gains to come undone before the pairing can move higher.
12:10 EDTTreasury Action: a small hiccup on yields
Subscribe for More Information
11:50 EDTTreasury's $48 B bill auctions found no significant benefit
Treasury's $48 B bill auctions found no significant benefit from flight to safety amid a global rout in stocks, with the shorter tranche underperforming. The 3-month bill stopped at 0.05%, right on the screws, but 2 bps above last week's 0.03% award rate. Bids totaled only $87 B for a modest 3.68 cover, the lowest since October 2013. Indirect bidders took only 17.7%, down from 23.0% last week and the 21.3% average. The 6-month bill stopped through at 0.145%, versus 0.15% at the bid deadline, and 1 bp cheaper than last week. There were $94.5 B in bids for a 3.99 cover, only a little better than last week's 3.67, but less than the 4.18 average. Indirect bidders were awarded 47.5% versus the prior 34.8% and the 41.6% average.
11:40 EDTChinese authorities say they will increase state purchases of stocks
Subscribe for More Information
11:25 EDTTreasury announced a $40 B 4-week bill auction for Tuesday
Subscribe for More Information
10:45 EDTU.S. Dallas Fed's manufacturing index improved to -4.6 in July
Subscribe for More Information
10:40 EDTChinaMeltdown is the popular tag on Twitter overnight
ChinaMeltdown is the popular tag on Twitter overnight prefaced by the ubiquitous hashtag, as in #ChinaMeltdown, with mostly leaning with the grain of the 8.5% equity decline there that has again bled into commodity prices and stocks, and few willing to challenge the trend despite Chinese shares still with some cushion in terms of gains for the year. Stocks continue to sag in NY with NASDAQ off 0.7%, though Europe has extended its drop as the Euro Stoxx 50 is now 2.1% lower and the German DAX is 2.3% lower. That suggests pressure will remain downward at least until Europe closes, though the 200-day m.a. on the S&P 500 near 2063 may provide some initial support according to UBS's Art Cashin.
10:31 EDTDallas Fed Mfg Survey Production Index data reported
Subscribe for More Information
10:20 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures are on the rise
Subscribe for More Information
10:15 EDTFOMC may offer fresh clues on rate liftoff, according to a WSJ article
FOMC may offer fresh clues on rate liftoff, according to a WSJ article by Ben Leubsdorf and Jon Hilsenrath, where the authors appeal to recent speeches/testimony suggesting rate hikes could begin this year. But as noted in the piece, the Fed will have "a slight signaling challenge...How aggressively should officials tip their hands about the timing of a rate increase later this year?" Analysts don't believe that policymakers can provide any clear hints. For months the FOMC has stressed the data dependent nature of the policy path. And so with a couple of more months' worth of key economic and price reports on tap prior to the September 16, 17, not to mention an increasingly shaky financial environment, it would not only be inconsistent for hints to be provided this week, but would jeopardize their credibility.
10:00 EDTFed Policy Outlook: the statement should have a slightly more upbeat tone
Subscribe for More Information
09:48 EDTChina rout drags down global markets, leads to lower U.S. open
Subscribe for More Information
09:41 EDTMorgan Stanley hold a cloud capex analyst/industry conference call
Communications and Systems Applications Analyst Faucette, along with IT Hardware Analyst Huberty, Semi Analyst Moore and Asian Hardware Tech Analyst Chen and Asian Semi Analyst Chan, discuss Morgan Stanley's report, "Global Insight: Cloudy With a Chance of Revisions" on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on July 27 at 10 am.
09:20 EDTTreasury Option Action: some put positioning
Subscribe for More Information
09:15 EDTTreasury Action: the FOMC and supply should restrain the front end
Subscribe for More Information
09:10 EDTToday's U.S. durable goods figures
Subscribe for More Information
08:50 EDTFX Action: The dollar shrugged off
Subscribe for More Information
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields jumped briefly
Subscribe for More Information
08:45 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude touched new trend lows
Energy Action: NYMEX crude touched new trend lows of $47.41 overnight, with its eyes now on the April 1 low of $47.01. A bout of dollar weakness failed to support prices, as another China equity market sell-off dented demand expectations. On the supply side, an uptick in operating oil rigs last week implies gains in U.S. production, while reports that Iraq will produce record volumes this month, should keep pressure on prices for the foreseeable future. RBOB gasoline futures remained near three-month lows under $1.8150, leaving average U.S. retail prices at $2.71/gallon, and down more than 4 cents over the past week, per AAA data. Natural gas futures declined a penny to $2.76/M BTU.
08:40 EDTU.S. durable goods orders rebounded 3.4% in June
Subscribe for More Information
08:36 EDTFutures continue to suggest lower open
Stock futures in the U.S. remain lower, taking their lead from China’s market, whose key index fell 8.5% in its largest single day drop in 8 years. Durable goods orders rose 3.4% in June, versus expectations for an increase of 3.2%. When transportation items are removed, the core reading was up 0.8%, versus expectations for an increase of 0.5%.
08:35 EDTU.S. equities were hammered again
U.S. equities were hammered again after stunning losses in China, which rekindled volatility in the region and concerns about the economic path. That development also fed back into the vicious cycle on commodity prices, which resumed their downslope. In Asia, the Nikkei fell 0.95%, while China's Shenzhen tanked 8.5% and the Shanghai Comp tumbled 8.4% despite government price support mechanisms. The Euro Stoxx 50 is off 1.6% in sympathy, while the German DAX is 1.7% lower, though the German Ifo jumped to 108.0. The Dow sank 105-points, S&P eased 11-points and NASDAQ is off 32-points in pre-open action. In M&A, Teva Pharma surged 14% after it bought Allergan for $40.5 B and gave up on its offer for Mylan, which sank 11%. Fiat Chrysler fell over 2% after the NTSB levied $105 M in fines on safety issues. The dollar index is 0.5% lower near 96.7 amid increased risk aversion and lower perceived Fed tightening risk. Durables should be propped up by heavy Boeing orders in June. Looking ahead, a heavy corporate earnings week and the FOMC will feature.
08:15 EDTDA Davidson energy/MLP analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
Subscribe for More Information
08:15 EDTU.S. Durable Goods Preview
Subscribe for More Information
08:15 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar sagged overnight against the euro and yen in particular, as risk-off conditions returned following another sharp downturn in China equities. EUR-USD touched 11-session high of 1.1113, as USD-JPY fell to two-week lows of 123.19. Further weakness in oil prices took USD-CAD back above 1.3030 from lows of 1.2980, while cable was relatively steady over 1.5500. On the data front, June durables are due at 8:30 EDT, followed by the July Dallas Fed index at 10:30 EDT.
08:00 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: the week begins on a bullish note for bonds
Subscribe for More Information
07:53 EDTFDA to hold a public workshop
Public Workshop entitled, "Robotically-Assisted Surgical (RAS) Devices": Challenges & Opportunities" is being held to obtain public feedback on scientific, clinical and regulatory considerations associated with RAS devices at the FDA Silver Springs, Maryland offices on July 27 and July 28 at 8 am. Webcast Link
07:30 EDTFX Update: The dollar traded generally weaker
Subscribe for More Information
07:07 EDTChina decline sinks U.S. futures
Subscribe for More Information
06:20 EDTA sharp dive in Chinese stocks have driven global markets lower
Subscribe for More Information
06:15 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for July 27
Subscribe for More Information
05:59 EDTJuly front month equity options last day to trade is August 21, 2015
Subscribe for More Information
03:05 EDTFX Update: The euro has traded firmly
Subscribe for More Information
July 24, 2015
22:00 EDTConsumer Sentiment Index to be reported at 10:00
Subscribe for More Information
22:00 EDTChicago PMI Business Barometer Index to be reported at 09:45
July Chicago PMI Business Barometer Index will be reported at 09:45 . Current consensus is 50.0
22:00 EDTEmployment Cost Index ECI to be reported at 08:30
Subscribe for More Information
22:00 EDTGDP price index to be reported at 08:30
Subscribe for More Information
22:00 EDTReal GDP to be reported at 08:30
Real GDP will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 2.9% for the quarter
22:00 EDTConsumer Confidence to be reported at 10:00
Subscribe for More Information
22:00 EDTPending Home Sales Index to be reported at 10:00
Subscribe for More Information
22:00 EDTRichmond Fed Manufacturing Index Level to be reported at 10:00
July Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Level will be reported at 10:00 . Current consensus is 7.5
22:00 EDTPMI Services Flash Level to be reported at 09:45
Subscribe for More Information
22:00 EDTDurable Goods Orders Ex-transportation to be reported at 08:30
Subscribe for More Information
22:00 EDTDurable Goods Orders to be reported at 08:30
June Durable Goods Orders will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 3.1% for the month
19:21 EDT Federal Reserve Gov. Jerome Powell Speech to be released at 00:00
Subscribe for More Information
16:17 EDTFitch upgrades Iceland to BBB+, Outlook stable
Fitch Ratings has upgraded Iceland's Long-term foreign currency Issuer Default Rating to 'BBB+' from 'BBB'. The Long-term local currency IDR has been upgraded to 'A-' from 'BBB+'. The Outlooks are Stable. The issue ratings on Iceland's senior unsecured foreign and local currency bonds have also been upgraded to 'BBB+' and 'A-', respectively. The Country Ceiling has been revised to 'BBB+' from 'BBB' and the Short-Term Foreign-Currency IDR upgraded to 'F2' from 'F3'. Reference Link
16:15 EDTFitch affirms Belgium at AA, Outlook negative
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Belgium's Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings at 'AA' with a Negative Outlook. The issue ratings on Belgium's senior unsecured foreign- and local-currency bonds are also affirmed at 'AA'. The Country Ceiling is affirmed at 'AAA' and the Short-term foreign-currency IDR at 'F1+'. Reference Link
15:30 EDTEarnings announcements will be important for the growth outlook
Subscribe for More Information
15:04 EDTMarket moves to session lows in afternoon trading
Subscribe for More Information
14:55 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Subscribe for More Information
14:45 EDTFed Policy Outlook: the FOMC meeting highlights next week
Subscribe for More Information
14:15 EDTTreasury Action: shorter dated Treasuries are outperforming today
Treasury Action: shorter dated Treasuries are outperforming today as a number of factors suggest risk the FOMC will delay September liftoff. However, analysts suspect the long end will reassert itself next week. The plunge in new home sales data, disappointing PMIs from Europe and China, the drop in commodity prices, and the dovish Fed staff outlook are creating some second thoughts on market policy outlooks. Those, and unwinding of curve flatteners are giving the front end a boost. The 2s-10s spread has edged out to 158 bps from 157 bps yesterday, to end a string of 8 consecutive days of flattening. However, with the advent of the Fed and risk the policy statement isn't as bond friendly as seen today, along with $105 B in short and intermediate supply, should see the back end of the curve outperform again. Additionally, it's month-end and the duration index is expected to extend out 0.10 years, which should further support. The drop in commodity prices and the strength in the dollar, not to mention the Fed's staff view that inflation won't reach the 2% target until 2020, will also add to benign price outlooks and underpin bonds. Plus, it's a seasonally bullish time of year for the long end.
13:40 EDTU.S. Durable Goods Preview
U.S. Durable Goods Preview: June durable goods data is out on Monday and analysts expect to see orders up 2.0% (median 3.1%) following a 2.2% decline in May and a 1.7% drop in April. Both sales and inventories are expected to be unchanged on the month which should leave the I/S ratio steady at 1.67 since March. There was a major surge in Boeing orders in June to 181 from just 11 in May which could provide some lift via the transport component.
13:20 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has headed back toward the top of its range
Subscribe for More Information
13:20 EDTTreasury Option Action: mostly bearish positioning
Subscribe for More Information
12:40 EDTTreasury Option Action: busy in bonds
Subscribe for More Information
11:55 EDTTreasury Curve Action: flattener unwinds kicked in
Subscribe for More Information
11:40 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures jerked higher
Subscribe for More Information
11:20 EDTFed is publically acknowledging an inadvertent release of staff projections
Subscribe for More Information
11:15 EDTU.S. equities are slip-sliding away
Subscribe for More Information
11:15 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude is on new three-month lows
Subscribe for More Information
10:40 EDTU.S. new home sales sharply underperformed
Subscribe for More Information
10:15 EDTU.S. June new home sales fell 6.8% to 482
Subscribe for More Information
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields backed up from lows
Subscribe for More Information
10:05 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures rebounded
Euro$ interest rate futures rebounded to highs of the week at the rate complex remains bullish relative to the diminished prospects on stocks, while the approaching FOMC meeting next week appears to be a low hurdle given fragile markets and an abundantly cautious Fed. The December 2015 contract is a half-tick lower near 99.445 (0.555% implied vs 0.570% Monday), while the deferreds are 1-2.5 ticks firmer out the back-end. Lean Friday holiday conditions should prevail quickly after the PMI and housing data round.
10:00 EDTU.S. Markit flash PMI inched up to53.8 in July
U.S. Markit flash PMI inched up to53.8 in July after slipping to 53.6 in June (the lowest print since October 2013) from May's 54.0. The index was at 55.8 a year ago. New orders rose to 55.0 from 54.7, while employment dipped to its lowest level since April versus June's 55.5. Cost inflation remained subdued. The data reflect solid improvement in the manufacturing sector. The data may weigh on Treasuries a bit as the market was worried that the report could disappoint, as was the case with Chinese and European results.
10:00 EDTFX Action: The dollar inched up
Subscribe for More Information
09:50 EDTU.S. New Home Sales Preview
U.S. New Home Sales Preview: June data on new home sales should reveal a 1.1% decline to a 540k (median 549k) pace from the 546k pace in May which set a new recent high. Other housing indicators have generally improved for the month with starts rising to 1,174k from 1,069k in May, existing home sales rising to 5.490 M from 5.320 M and the NAHB Index up to 60 from 54.
09:30 EDTU.S. Markit manufacturing flash PMI
U.S. Markit manufacturing flash PMI is forecast to sink slightly to 53.5 in July from 53.6 in June. For more detail on the data, see the Markit website.
09:20 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY continues to struggle over the 124 level
Subscribe for More Information
09:15 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: today's slate is light heading into the weekend
Subscribe for More Information
09:00 EDTTreasury Option Action: some early bullish positioning
Treasury Option Action: some early bullish positioning included purchases of September 126.5 calls in a couple of tranches totaling 1k, accompanied by an uptick in volatility. September 10-year futures are 4.5-ticks firmer near 126-245 with the grain of this demand, compared to a 126-255 to 126-175 range on Globex overnight. Meanwhile, stocks continue to equivocate ahead of the open.
08:35 EDTU.S. equities are slightly firmer
Subscribe for More Information
08:20 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD rallied to 1.3092 highs
Subscribe for More Information
08:00 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed
Subscribe for More Information
07:50 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: Weaker PMI data were the overnight story, as China and EU manufacturing readings came in under market expectations, Global equities were mixed on the results however, with U.S. stock futures indicating a higher Wall Street open, largely on the back of Amazon's better earning report. EUR-USD fell back into 1.0920 from Thursday highs over 1.10135, as USD-JPT maintained a narrow range on either side of 124.00. USD-CAD matched the September 2, 2004 high of 1.3071, as oil prices stayed under $49/bbl, and as gold touched new five-plus year lows near $1,1076/ounce, and copper fell to six-year low near $2.35/lb. The U.S. calendar reveals the July flash Markit PMI at 9:45 EDT, followed by June new home sales at 10:00 EDT.
07:10 EDTFX Update: The euro traded softer in the wake of Eurozone PMI misses
Subscribe for More Information
07:04 EDTEarnings continue to dictate market moves
Subscribe for More Information
06:22 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for July 24
Subscribe for More Information
05:54 EDTAugust front month equity options last day to trade is August 21, 2015
Subscribe for More Information
02:25 EDTFX Update: The AUD dove following a sub-forecast China PMI
FX Update: The AUD dove following a sub-forecast China PMI reading for manufacturing, which plunged to a preliminary 48.2 in July, well short of projections for a modest erosion following the final 49.4 in June. AUD-USD hit a six-year low of 0.7269 after declining almost a whole big figure, subsequently recouping to the 0.7300 area but remaining net lower for the day. Weaker commodity prices this week had already been weighing on the Aussie. Elsewhere, the other commodity bloc currencies and most dollar pairings held mostly in narrow ranges. USD-JPY traded near 124.00, holding well within yesterday's range, with a decent Japanese manufacturing PMI having little impact on the yen nor Japanese stock markets, which instead were more preoccupied by the much worse Chinese PMI. EUR-USD consolidated yesterday's gain in a narrow range in the upper 1.09s, leaving yesterday's nine-day high at 1.1018 untroubled.
July 23, 2015
23:35 EDTJapan flash manufacturing PMI rose to 51.4 in July
Subscribe for More Information
23:20 EDTChina's manufacturing PMI plunged to a preliminary 48.2 in July
Subscribe for More Information
21:36 EDTWeek of 8/5 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
21:36 EDTJuly Treasury STRIPS to be released at 15:00
Subscribe for More Information
21:36 EDTWeek of 7/27 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
Subscribe for More Information
17:17 EDTWeek of 7/31 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 10:30
Subscribe for More Information
17:17 EDTWeek of 8/2 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to be released at 09:45
Subscribe for More Information
17:17 EDTWeek of 8/1 Jobless Claims to be released at 08:30
15:25 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Subscribe for More Information
14:50 EDTFed Policy Outlook: the rate decision is less than a week away
Subscribe for More Information
14:05 EDTTreasury Action: longer dated Treasuries are outperforming
Subscribe for More Information
13:45 EDTTreasury Option Action: a variety of flows
Treasury Option Action: a variety of flows have swept through the otherwise fairly static and quiet options market, according to sources. Among the largest vs 10-year futures were bullish sellers of 4k in August 127/126/125 put butterflies and bearish seller of 1.5k in August 126.5 calls. Also cited were bullish buys of 3k in August 126+ calls and 2k in week 5 126/127 call 1x1.5s. September 10s are now 9-ticks higher near 126-19 after the stock market slump, compared to an updated range of 126-19 to 126-04.
13:20 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has pulled back
FX Action: USD-JPY has pulled back to near overnight lows, touching 123.75 so far. The soft risk backdrop has weighed, as Wall Street adds to losses, commodities tank, and as yields settle a bit lower. Support is seen into Wednesday's 123.57 base, with sell-stops said to be building at 123.50.
13:15 EDTTreasury's $15 B TIPS auction was ho-hum
Subscribe for More Information
13:10 EDTU.S. New Home Sales Preview
U.S. New Home Sales Preview: June data on new home sales is out on Friday and should reveal a 1.1% decline to a 540k (median 549k) pace from the 546k pace in May which set a new recent high. Other housing indicators have generally improved for the month with starts rising to 1,174k from 1,069k in May, existing home sales rising to 4.950 M from 5.320 M and the NAHB Index up to 60 from 54.
12:45 EDTTreasury 10-year TIPS auction preview:
Subscribe for More Information
12:30 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has perked up
FX Action: USD-CAD has perked up from its post-data 1.2948 lows, trading back over 1.3030 as the commodity market meltdown continues. WTI crude is under $49/bbl, as gold prices stay under $1,100, and copper flirts with six-year lows. Should commodity prices fall further, the odds for another BoC rate cut will rise, and will keep the CAD under pressure.
11:50 EDTU.S. equities are limping toward midday
Subscribe for More Information
11:25 EDTTreasury Option Action: some bullish positioning
Treasury Option Action: some bullish positioning included a sale of 3k in September 125.00 puts against a purchase of calls on 10-year futures. Sources are also preoccupied by the expiry of August options tomorrow, which is dominating activity on calendar rolls and the like. September 10s are 3.5-ticks lower near 126-065 compared to their 126-155 to 126-04 session range.
11:20 EDTCommodity Action: NYMEX crude
Subscribe for More Information
11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $90 B package of coupon offerings for next week
Treasury announced a $90 B package of coupon offerings for next week, as expected, including $26 B in 2-year notes (Tuesday), $35 B in 5s (Wednesday), and $29 B in 7s (Thursday). The debt managers also announced a $15 B 2-year FRN (Wednesday), and a $48 B 3- and 6-month bill sale (Monday).
11:07 EDT7-Yr Note Announcement Min Bid Amount data reported
Subscribe for More Information
11:07 EDT7-Yr Note Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
Subscribe for More Information
11:07 EDT5-Yr Note Announcement Min Bid Amount data reported
5-Yr Note Announcement Min Bid Amount at $100
11:07 EDT5-Yr Note Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
Subscribe for More Information
11:07 EDT2-Yr Note Announcement Min Bid Amount data reported
Subscribe for More Information
11:07 EDT2-Yr Note Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
2-Yr Note Announcement CUSIP Number at 912828XP0
11:07 EDT2-Yr FRN Note Announcement Min Bid Amount data reported
Subscribe for More Information
11:07 EDT2-Yr FRN Note Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
Subscribe for More Information
11:07 EDTKansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Level data reported
July Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Level at -7
11:05 EDTBridgewater threw in the towel on China
Subscribe for More Information
10:40 EDTTreasury Action: curve is flattening for an 8th straight session
Subscribe for More Information
10:30 EDTEIA natural gas storage change for week ending July 17
Gas inventories 61 Bcf build vs. consensus of 68 Bcf build.
10:25 EDTTreasury Action: yields have simmered down
Treasury Action: yields have simmered down after earlier swings on the historic low on claims. The leaders gain was well above low consensus, but below the revised May level. The T-note yield has steadied in the 2.32% area after jumping from 2.30% lows to 2.34% highs.
10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar did not react
Subscribe for More Information
10:15 EDTU.S. leading indicators rose 0.6% in June to 123.6
Subscribe for More Information
10:11 EDTLeading Indicators data reported
June Leading Indicators up 0.6% vs. consensus of 0.2% for the month
09:50 EDTU.S. Leading Indicators Preview
U.S. Leading Indicators Preview: June leading indicators may reveal a 0.8% (median 0.2%) increase on the heels of two consecutive 0.7% increases. The increase in permits to 1,343k for June from 1,250k should provide much of the boost that analysts expect to the headline.
09:45 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures remain frothy:
Subscribe for More Information
09:36 EDTAverage mixed after jobless claims, earnings torrent
Subscribe for More Information
09:30 EDTIMF warned Japan on over-reliance on the weak yen
Subscribe for More Information
09:25 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude was held to $49.53 highs
Energy Action: NYMEX crude was held to $49.53 highs overnight, after falling to trend lows of $49.03 lows on Wednesday. A modestly lower dollar has provided some support this morning, though with the supply/demand formula skewed in favor of supply, upside is likely to be limited for the foreseeable future. The April 2 low of $48.09 is the next major support level, with resistance at $50.00. RBOB gasoline futures have recovered to $1.88/gallon, after making one-week lows of $1.8560 overnight, as natural gas futures edge over $2.90/M BTU on increased demand, due to warmer U.S. temperatures.
09:25 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: the calendar is again on the heavy side
Subscribe for More Information
09:04 EDTWells Fargo to hold a symposium
Subscribe for More Information
08:55 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims dove 26k to 255k in the week ended July 18
Subscribe for More Information
08:55 EDTThe 26k U.S. initial claims plunge to a 255k new cycle-low
Subscribe for More Information
08:55 EDTU.S. Chicago Fed's National Activty index rose to 0.08 in June
U.S. Chicago Fed's National Activty index rose to 0.08 in June after an upwardly revised 0.0.8 decline in May (was -0.17), and April's -0.04 (revised from -0.19). This is the first time this year the index has been in positive territory. The 3-month average improved to -0.01 versus May's -0.07 (revised from -0.16) and April's -0.13 (bumped from -0.20).
08:50 EDTFX Action: The dollar moved up
FX Action: The dollar moved up after the much better jobless claims print, which was the lowest since 1973. EUR-USD eased into 1.0978 from near 1.1020, as USD-JPY jumped to 124.00 from 123.80. Yields moved off of session lows, while equity futures were little changed, and indicate a mixed Wall Street open.
08:50 EDTU.S. equities are trading mixed
Subscribe for More Information
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields sought traction above lows
Subscribe for More Information
08:38 EDTChicago Fed National Activity Index Level data reported
June Chicago Fed National Activity Index Level at 0.08 vs consensus of -0.05
08:31 EDTJobless Claims data reported
Subscribe for More Information
08:15 EDTU.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview: Jobless claims for the week of July 18th are forecast to edge up 2k to 283k (median 281k) from 281k in the week prior. Claims during July can be volatile as a result of the auto retooling season but analysts expect balanced risk to this volatility for the duration of the month as analysts discussed in our June 30th commentary.
07:55 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: sovereign bonds are modestly higher
Subscribe for More Information
07:40 EDTFX Update: The euro found broad support
Subscribe for More Information
07:37 EDTThe Economic Club of Minnesota to hold a meeting
The Economic Club of Minnesota holds a Reception where President & CEO MacLennan of Cargill is the guest speaker in Washington, D.C. on July 23 at 5:30 pm.
07:35 EDTNational Economists Club to hold a luncheon meeting
Robert Young, Chief Economist at the American Farm Bureau Federation, discusses the implications for future food production at a luncheon meeting being held in Washington, D.C. on July 23 at 12 pm.
07:27 EDTFutures suggest slight market bounce
Stock futures are suggesting a market bounce as investors focus on the multitude of earnings reports from last night and today. 25% of the S&P were scheduled for release this week, with the lion’s share coming today. The economic calendar includes the weekly natural gas inventory report, weekly jobless claims data and the leading economic indicators report.
06:03 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for July 23
Globex S&P futures are recently up 4.30 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 0.44%, Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index up 2.25%, DAX up 0.22%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $49.27, natural gas down 0.01%, gold at $1101 an ounce, copper up 0.80%.
05:26 EDTAugust front month equity options last day to trade is August 21, 2015
Subscribe for More Information
02:55 EDTFX Update: The dollar traded steady-to-firm
FX Update: The dollar traded steady-to-firm during the pre-Europe session in Asia. USD-JPY matched yesterday's two-day high 124.15 as it extended its recovery from 123.57. The move mostly reflected yen underperformance as stock markets in Japan and Asia managed to rebound from yesterday's losses. EUR-JPY edged out an eight-day peak of 135.41, and other yen crosses posted gains too. Elsewhere, EUR-USD traded steadily in the low-to-mid 1.09s, holding below the eight-day peak set on Tuesday at 1.0969. AUD-USD dipped to a two-day low of 0.7356. NZD-USD rallied as markets bought kiwis 'on the fact' of an anticipated rate cut by the RBNZ, logging a two-day peak at 0.6653. USD-CAD consolidated just of yesterday's six-year peak at 1.3053, which was seen as oil prices dropped amid new signs of excess supply.
02:50 EDTFX Update: The dollar traded steady-to-firm
Subscribe for More Information
July 22, 2015
15:20 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: longer dated yields drifted lower Wednesday as the correction on equities gathered steam following an earnings miss from Apple after the close Tuesday, and deep losses posted by Microsoft, among others. Though bid, the bond market was relatively subdued. Some bottom fishing kicked in on stocks after opening losses and limited Treasury gains, as did a big debt offering from Intel. Existing home sales and FHFA home prices both rose handily, but merely helped provide a cushion after opening declines.
14:49 EDTWeek of 7/31 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30
Subscribe for More Information
14:49 EDT Treasury Refunding Announcement to be released at 08:30
14:49 EDTWeek of 7/31 MBA Mortgage Applications to be released at 07:00
Subscribe for More Information
14:35 EDTCanada Retail Sales Preview
Subscribe for More Information
14:30 EDTU.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview: Jobless claims for the week of July 18th are out Thursday and should edge up to 283k (median 281k) from 281k in the week prior. Claims during July can be volatile as a result of the auto retooling season but analysts expect balanced risk to this volatility for the duration of the month as analysts discussed in our June 30th commentary.
14:30 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude traded to new trend lows
Subscribe for More Information
14:25 EDTU.S. Leading Indicators Preview
Subscribe for More Information
13:52 EDTAverages drift in negative territory
Subscribe for More Information
13:15 EDTFed Policy Outlook: the Fed decision is a week away
Subscribe for More Information
12:40 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has been grinding slowly higher
Subscribe for More Information
11:25 EDTTreasury Action: longer dated Treasuries are outperforming
Subscribe for More Information
10:40 EDTEnergy Action: Front month NYMEX crude rallied to $50.20
Subscribe for More Information
10:30 EDTCrude inventories for week of July 17
Crude oil inventories 2.47M build vs. consensus of 2.2M draw. Gasoline inventories 1.73M draw vs. consensus of 300K build. Distillates 235K build vs. consensus of 1.8M build.
10:30 EDTThe 3.2% June U.S. existing home sales surge
Subscribe for More Information
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields rebounded from lows
Treasury Action: yields rebounded from lows with a little bottom-fishing on Apple and tech stocks, combined with the uptick on existing home sales. The T-note yield tested the 2.31% July 50% retrace area earlier and then recovered above 2.32%. The 2s-10s spread steadied at +163 bp after narrowing inside that area, compared to +169 bp Tuesday wides.
10:11 EDTExisting Home Sales data reported
Subscribe for More Information
10:10 EDTU.S. existing home sales rose 3.2% to a 5.49 M rate in June
Subscribe for More Information
10:10 EDTFX Action: The dollar rallied
Subscribe for More Information
10:03 EDTSenate Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs Committee to hold a hearing
Subscribe for More Information
09:55 EDTHouse Financial Services Committee to hold a hearing
Subscribe for More Information
09:55 EDTU.S. tech stocks slump is being viewed as a buying op
U.S. tech stocks slump is being viewed as a buying op according to some after the residual opening selling washes through on Apple, which remains a fund darling after record earnings despite the topline miss. Adding fuel to that conjecture is the uptick in USD-JPY to session highs of 123.97, which appears to be signaling risk-on despite the opening carnage. Apple traded over 9% lower overnight, but has since trimmed those losses to -5.9%.
09:50 EDTMacquarie to hold a conference
Subscribe for More Information
09:50 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: supply is picking up
Subscribe for More Information
09:40 EDTU.S. Existing Home Sales Preview:
U.S. Existing Home Sales Preview: June existing home sales should reveal a 0.4% decline to a 5.330 M (median 5.400 M) pace from 5.350 M in May. The NAHB index improved to 60 in June from 54 in May and the housing starts report for June revealed an increase in the pace to 1.174 M from 1.069 M in May. For more detail, see our existing home sales preview.
09:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields tripped to lows
Subscribe for More Information
09:15 EDTU.S. FHFA home price index rose 0.4% to 222.8 in May
Subscribe for More Information
09:05 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has posted anew 11-year highs
Subscribe for More Information
08:45 EDTU.S. FHFA home prices index preview:
Subscribe for More Information
08:30 EDTU.S. equities are back on the defensive
Subscribe for More Information
08:00 EDTEnergy Action: September NYMEX crude
Subscribe for More Information
07:45 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index rose 0.1%
U.S. MBA mortgage market index rose 0.1% in data released earlier, in addition to a 1.0% rise in the purchase index and 0.5% drop in the refinancing index for the week ended July 17. Average mortage rates were unchanged at 4.23% for the period on the 30-year fixed mortgage. The refinancing share of the total mortgage activity dipped to 50.3% from 50.8% the week prior. Fairly balanced Yellen semi-annual testimony last week dominated the headlines after the negative print on June retail sales, which kept a lid on yields after a deal with Greece was struck. For more on the housing sector, see our existing home sales, housing starts and new home sales reports.
07:35 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds are mixed in thin, narrow trading
Treasury Market Outlook: bonds are mixed in thin, narrow trading, having pared earlier losses. The 10-year Treasury yield is flat at 2.33%. It's ranged from 2.319% to 2.339%. The Bund yield is at 0.77% after trading from 0.756% to 0.78%. Gilts are outperforming with the rate down 4 bps to 2.04% after the BoE minutes showed a unanimous vote for a steady policy stance, though the usually dovish Miles turned hawkish in an interview in a Morgan Stanley magazine interview. Meanwhile, it's a sea of red in equities after misses from Apple and Microsoft last night exacerbated the bearish tone in stocks that followed poor results yesterday from IBM and United Technologies. Also, Greece is headed for a second bailout vote amid more public protests. There wasn't much dat overnight, and today's U.S. slate is thin with just June existing home sales and the May FHFA home price index. The MBA reported mortgage applications inched up 0.1% in the week ended July 17. Earnings will remain the focal point news from American Express, Boeing, Coca-Cola, Cheesecake Factory, Angie's List, Owens Corning, Qualcomm, and SanDisk.
07:35 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
Subscribe for More Information
07:22 EDTBofa/Merrill to hold a briefing
Subscribe for More Information
07:16 EDTThe Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services holds a committee meeting
Subscribe for More Information
06:48 EDTTech selloff sinks futures
U.S. equity futures are lower this morning, led by the Nasdaq, which is being dragged down by steep slides in shares of Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) after their earnings reports last night. The weakness has spilled over to the other indices in the early going. Investors will have little aside from earnings on which to focus, as the economic calendar has just existing home sales data and energy inventory numbers scheduled for release.
05:55 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for July 22
Subscribe for More Information
05:51 EDTAugust front month equity options last day to trade is August 21, 2015
05:10 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has steadied
Subscribe for More Information
02:30 EDTFX Update: USD-JPY dipped to a one-week low
Subscribe for More Information
02:25 EDTFX Update: USD-JPY dipped to a one-week low
Subscribe for More Information
July 21, 2015
23:10 EDTAsian equities were tripped up by Apple and Microsoft
Asian equities were tripped up by Apple and Microsoft which revealed earnings shy of inflated expectations. This came on top of the weak finish on Wall Street and latest skid in Europe, keeping investors in a more defensive mindset this week. Japan's Nikkei sank 1.2%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng is off 1.2%, while China's Shenzhen is flat and the Shanghai Comp is 0.4% higher. U.S. equity futures were led lower by a 55-point drop on the NASDAQ, 8-point slide in the S&P 500 and 75-point dive in the Dow. Apple tanked nearly 9% in after-hours trade after iPhone shipments missed forecasts and forecast revenues shy of the $51.1 B targeted, whiping of some $50 B in market cap. The absorption of Nokia also tarnished Microsoft's to the tune of a $7.5 B write-off and 5.1% revenue decline for a $3.2 B net loss, knocking its shares over 4% lower after-hours. The firm dollar also impacted the bottom line.
15:54 EDT 4-Week Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
Subscribe for More Information
15:54 EDTWeek of 8/1 Redbook to be released at 08:55
Subscribe for More Information
15:25 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Subscribe for More Information
14:34 EDTS&P raises Greece rating to CCC+ from CCC-, Outlook stable
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said that it raised its foreign and local currency long-term sovereign credit ratings on Greece to 'CCC+' from 'CCC-'. The 'C' short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings were affirmed. The outlook is stable. The upgrade reflects Greece's improved liquidity perspective following last week's consent, in principle, from the Eurogroup to the three-year loan program for Greece via the ESM, alongside the provision of EUR7.16B in three-month bridge financing to the Greek government, which it used on July 20 to clear its arrears with the IMF and the Bank of Greece and to repay the ECB. "We consequently think that Greece's default on its stock of commercial debt is no longer inevitable in the next six to 12 months."
14:25 EDTS&P raises Greece rating to CCC+ from CCC-, Outlook stable
Subscribe for More Information
14:10 EDTU.S. Existing Home Sales Preview:
Subscribe for More Information
13:40 EDTTreasury Curve Action: outperformance in the belly
Subscribe for More Information
13:00 EDTSF Fed on inflation: price stability is the second part of the Fed's mandate
Subscribe for More Information
12:35 EDTEnergy Action: September NYMEX crude retreated
Energy Action: September NYMEX crude retreated back toward N.Y. session lows, trading into $50.61 after printing a $51.36 high earlier. A bout of dollar weakness provided short covering rationale, though the lack of follow through, and the inability to hold the $51 handle doesn't bode well for oil bulls. Fund selling was reported over $51, and a break under $50 seems inevitable, especially if the dollar rally resumes.
12:25 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures probed higher
Euro$ interest rate futures probed higher from earlier lows as the pendulum swung back against stocks and in favor of interest rate instruments. A sharp drop in euro-stocks into the close and downward revisions on industrial production data seemed culpable, leaving the September 2015 contract 1.5-ticks higher near 99.45 (implied 0.55%), compared to earlier lows near 99.43 (0.57%). The deferreds are 1.5-5 ticks firmer out the curve, with heaviest gains in the belly ahead of next week's FOMC meeting.
11:50 EDTTreasury's bill auction results were on the average to light side
Subscribe for More Information
11:50 EDTU.S. equities are extending declines
Subscribe for More Information
11:50 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has joined the dollar selling party
FX Action: USD-JPY has joined the dollar selling party today, falling to four-session lows of 123.73, and down from opening highs near 124.40. The pairing found support into last Thursday's 123.75 base, and has since rebounded over 123.90. Dip buying remains in vogue however, as the bigger picture points to further BoJ stimulus, and prospects for Fed rate hikes.
11:25 EDTBoJ's Kuroda saw no need for additional QE
Subscribe for More Information
11:10 EDTTreasury Option Action: extremely quiet trade
Subscribe for More Information
10:45 EDTJP Morgan "All Client" Survey on bonds
Subscribe for More Information
10:20 EDTU.S. Fed's annual industrial production revisions
Subscribe for More Information
09:48 EDTCLSA semiconductors analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
Semiconductors Analyst Pajjuri, along with Jag Bolaria, Principal Analyst and head of the Server practice at The Linley Group, discuss the latest developments in the ARM server market on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on July 24 at 11 am.
09:47 EDTDow opens lower as several blue chips slide after earnings
Subscribe for More Information
09:45 EDTU.S. corporate bond update:
Subscribe for More Information
09:35 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD matched London lows
Subscribe for More Information
09:10 EDTTreasury Action: yields backed higher
Treasury Action: yields backed higher with those of Bunds, mostly reflecting lingering volatility over the Greek situation where bailout talks are set to be completed by August 20 and plenty of pitfalls remain. Hedging of corporate supply has also been a repeat offender, as big multi-tranche deals crowd out underlying Treasuries and futures intermittantly. The T-note yield shot back up to the 2.40% pivot form 2.35% Asia lows before pausing once again, while the Bund yield probed 0.80% from the 0.733% area. The Bund/T-note spread remained stuck near -161 bp, implying a parallel shift. The 2s-10s spread widened out to +169 bp. Curiously, stocks are extending losses in pre-open trade, amid fresh disconnect.
08:45 EDTObama to Nominate Kathryn Dominguez to Fed Board:
Subscribe for More Information
08:25 EDTEnergy Action: September NYMEX crude
Energy Action: September NYMEX crude touched better than three-month lows of $50.06 overnight, before recovering to $50.51. The contract currently trades at $50.41. The modest pullback in the dollar removed some selling pressure, though the moribund rebound seen so far leaves the downside vulnerable. The August contract traded under the $50 mark on Monday, though expires at the close today, leaving September as front-month. RBOB gasoline trades at $1.91/gallon, well above its three month lows of $1.85.27 seen last week, despite soft crude prices, as summer demand remains strong. Natural gas futures meanwhile, remain range bound, near $2.86/M BTU.
08:20 EDTU.S. equities are moderately lower
Subscribe for More Information
08:00 EDTU.S. chain store sales rebounded 0.3% in the week ended July 18
U.S. chain store sales rebounded 0.3% in the week ended July 18, according to The Retail Economist data, after dropping 1.0% previously. However the annual pace accelerated to 2.5% y/y versus the 1.9% y/y for the week before. Hotter, more humid weather helped boost demand for seasonal items. Back-to-school shopping should help support in coming weeks too.
07:55 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
Subscribe for More Information
07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: trading remained quiet
Subscribe for More Information
07:45 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: trading remained quiet
Subscribe for More Information
07:34 EDTThe Heritage Foundation to hold a discussion on Dodd-Frank
Subscribe for More Information
07:32 EDTFederal Reserve Board to hold a closed meeting
Closed Meeting to consider periodic briefing and discuss financial markets, institutions and infrastructure is being held at the Federal Reserve's Washington, D.C. offices on July 21 at 9 am.
07:31 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a field trip
Subscribe for More Information
07:25 EDTFX Update: The dollar posted a moderate correction
Subscribe for More Information
07:20 EDTFX Update: The dollar posted a moderate correction
Subscribe for More Information
07:18 EDTIBM weighs on Dow futures
Subscribe for More Information
06:00 EDTFX Action: The dollar has corrected some
FX Action: The dollar has corrected some during the European AM session, which has seen EUR-USD rebound about 30 pips to the 1.0850 area and USD-JPY dip below 124.30. The greenback has seen losses of a similar magnitude against sterling and the Aussie dollar, among others. There are no fresh news drivers, and today's U.S. calendar is pretty quiet, featuring revised production data. Most dollar pairings have remained within Monday ranges so far.
05:53 EDTAugust front month equity options last day to trade is August 21, 2015
Subscribe for More Information
05:37 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for July 21
Globex S&P futures are recently down 1.00 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 0.93%, Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index up 0.13%, DAX down 0.07%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $49.95, natural gas down 0.43%, gold at $1108 an ounce, copper down 2.85%.
02:50 EDTFX Update: The dollar continued to trade firmer
Subscribe for More Information
July 20, 2015
18:09 EDT 6-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
Subscribe for More Information
18:09 EDT 3-Month Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
18:09 EDT 4-Week Bill Announcement to be released at 11:00
Subscribe for More Information
16:04 EDTPresident Obama nominates Kathryn Dominguez to Fed board
President Barack Obama has nominated Kathryn Dominguez, a professor at the University of Michigan with a background in international economics, to the Fed's board of governors. In a statement regarding the nomination, Obama said Dominguez has the "proven experience, judgment, and deep knowledge of the financial system, monetary policy, and international capital markets to serve at the Federal Reserve during this important time for our economy."
14:09 EDTAverages higher in afternoon trading despite weak internals
Subscribe for More Information
13:45 EDTTreasury Action: question is whether FOMC will signal future action
Subscribe for More Information
13:35 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude is on N.Y. session lows
Subscribe for More Information
13:25 EDTU.S. corporate debt: UnitedHealth launched its $10.5 B 8-trancher
Subscribe for More Information
13:10 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY failed to advance beyond the 124.8 high
Subscribe for More Information
13:00 EDTFed final capital surcharge rules for big banks
Fed final capital surcharge rules for big banks were proposed for 8 institutions, with all expected to meet the requirement over a 3-year phase-in. By example, there would be a 4.5% surcharge for JP Morgan and 3.5% for Citi, with only JPM facing a $12.5 B shortfall from these goals currently (down from $20 B in December). Fed governor Tarullo noted that the Fed will accordingly tailor stress tests for the largest banks later in the year and the final rule would not add surcharges to the stress test excercise. In an effort to head off contagion this is seen by some as a tax on banking and by regulators as designed to deter over zealous risk taking.
12:50 EDTDemand for floating rate corporate bonds has plunged
Demand for floating rate corporate bonds has plunged even as overall issuance has posted a record this year, according to a WSJ report (subscription). Institutional investors aren't that keen on the protection against higher rates offered by FRNs, given their outlook for a subdued and gradual Fed interest rate path. In some cases the up front yield sacrifice of up to half for an FRN vs fixed debt issue isn't viewed as sufficient compensation for potential subsequent gains/protection. Short-term floaters are also a risk for issuers, who may have to tap the market again at higher yields. The article concludes that this is also an expression of the more stable rate environment of late given the stress of the Greek crisis and other events on keeping a lid on global yields.
11:50 EDTTreasury's $48 B 3- and 6-month bill sale was on the soft side
Subscribe for More Information
11:50 EDTTreasury Option Action: mixed positioning
Treasury Option Action: mixed positioning in very quiet conditions, including a bearish purchase of 12k in August 125.5 puts and a bullish purchase of an 8k x 12k September 126/127 call 2x3 for a net volatility sale equal to 31% of the at-the-money straddle. Also on the vol side were sales of 1.5k in September 126 straddles and 1.5k in October 125 straddles. September 10s are 8-ticks lower near 125-28 after hawkish Fed Bullard remarks, compared to a range of 126-05 to 125-225 on Globex.
11:35 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures sank
Subscribe for More Information
11:15 EDTTreasury Action: Treasury announced a $48 B 4-week bill auction
Treasury Action: Treasury announced a $48 B 4-week bill auction for Tuesday. That's a $5 B reduction from last week. The debt managers continue to use the shorter bills to adjust their cash balances. Supply remains light this week with just bills and a $15 B 10-year TIPS offering, but it picks up next week with the 2-, 5-, and 7-year offerings due.
11:10 EDTU.S. corporate debt: UnitedHealth 8-trancher
U.S. corporate debt: UnitedHealth 8-trancher is reportedly on tap, ranging from a 1.5-year FRN to a 30-year bond, with the order book for its jumbo acquisition bond reportedly topping $23 B. This may contribute to the defensive tone on underlying Treasuries and futures until priced.
10:00 EDTTreasury Action: yields suddenly legged it higher
Treasury Action: yields suddenly legged it higher, with the upmove gathering pace after Fed's Bullard leaned toward a September hike and this seems to be leading Bund yields higher for a change rather than the other way around. The T-note yield ramped from 2.341% session lows to clear 2.39%, but the Bund merely rounded up from 0.74% lows to test 0.77%. The Bund/T-note spread widened from -160 bp to -162 bp as a result.
09:55 EDTTreasury Action: Treasuries lost a little more ground
Subscribe for More Information
09:40 EDTAfter Bullard's remarks Fedspeak goes into hibernation
Subscribe for More Information
09:35 EDTMarket has quiet start to busy week for earnings
Subscribe for More Information
09:25 EDTU.S. Producer Sentiment Upturn Fizzles:
U.S. Producer Sentiment Upturn Fizzles: The early-July producer sentiment surveys revealed a partial give-back of the June upturn, as the Philly Fed headline plunged to 5.7 from 15.2 to leave that gauge near its 5.0 one-year low in March, while the Empire State headline rose in July, but to a still-depressed 3.9. On an ISM-adjusted basis both measures fell to the 50-area, and analysts now expect the ISM-adjusted average of the major surveys to fall back to 52 in July after the June bounce to 53 from 51 in both April and May and a two-year low of 50 in March.
09:23 EDTThe Hudson Institute to hold a discussion on the Internet
Subscribe for More Information
09:10 EDTFed's Bullard said the probability of September rate liftoff is above 50%
Subscribe for More Information
09:10 EDTEarnings updates will cover a wide swath of the economy
Subscribe for More Information
09:00 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD eased to 1.2953 lows
Subscribe for More Information
08:27 EDTFederal Reserve Board to hold an open board meeting
The Board discusses 1. Final Rule to Establish Risk-Based Capital Surcharges for Systemically Important Bank Holding Companies. 2. Final Order Applying Enhanced Prudential Standards to General Electric Capital Corporation under Section 165 of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act in the meeting being held in Washington, D.C. on July 20 at 1 pm. Webcast Link
08:25 EDTCanada Wholesale Preview
Canada Wholesale Preview: Shipments are expected to rise 0.5% m/m in May after the 1.9% surge in April. Forecast risk is to the downside given the strong growth in March and April, and the 0.5% drop in manufacturing shipment volumes seen in May (shipment values were 0.1% higher).
08:15 EDTU.S. equities are poised to open slightly firmer
Subscribe for More Information
08:05 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude
Subscribe for More Information
07:55 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed to slightly lower
Subscribe for More Information
07:54 EDTCredit Suisse macroeconomics analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Macroeconomics Analyst Research Team provides an update and outlook on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on July 20 at 8 am.
07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed to slightly lower
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed to slightly lower in thin trading (Japan is on holiday), even as global bonds are higher in price. The yield on the 10-year note has slipped to 2.345% versus an overnight high of 2.37%. The German Bund yield is 4 bps lower at 0.75%. Equities are modestly firmer too, as is the dollar. Athens reportedly settled its debt with the IMF, and the ECB and Greek banks finally reopened, to give some stability to the markets. There wasn't much data overnight. German PPI was steady at -1.4% y/y. There is nothing on today's U.S. economic calendar. Earning season picks up and will highlight. Today's slat has IBM, Morgan Stanley, Halliburton, and Hasbro. Data due later this week will feature housing reports.
07:45 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar firmed up overnight, taking EUR-USD to lows of 1.0820, levels last seen on May 27. Greek banks re-opened, though capital controls remained in place, while Athens repaid creditors with help from last week's approved bridge loan. More pain will come on the Greece front, though for now, the storm has subsided. Elsewhere, USD-JPY hit a one-month high of 124.38, in light Japanese holiday trade, as USD-CAD stayed form near 1.3000. Gold price slide to five year lows didn't help the CAD, though oil prices remained steady to a bit firmer, offsetting some. The U.S. calendar is completely empty this morning, so focus will look to news from Greece, along with risk levels, including equity, Treasury and commodity developments.
07:35 EDTThe Heritage Foundation to hold a discussion on the tax code
Subscribe for More Information
07:31 EDTFinancial Research Associates to hold a conference
Subscribe for More Information
07:25 EDTFX Update:
FX Update: The dollar has started the new week where it finished of last week, in bullish form. EUR-USD fell to a 10-week low of 1.0820, stopping just short of the May-27 low at 1.0819. USD-JPY rose to a one-month peak of 124.38 during the London AM session following a quiet Asia session in the absence of Japanese markets, which were closed for a public holiday. Cable ebbed to the mid-1.55s, breaching below its 50-day moving average. Sterling also saw losses against the euro, correcting some of its recent outperformance after EY ITEM Club cautioned the BoE against "premature" tightening, which has prompted a rethink in markets into Wednesday's release of the BoE minutes to the July MPC meeting,
07:13 EDTFutures suggest slightly higher open for market
Subscribe for More Information
06:10 EDTiPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures at 16.40, 50-day moving average 18.95
Subscribe for More Information
05:47 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for July 20
Globex S&P futures are recently up 2.25 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 0.25%, Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index up 0.22%, DAX up 0.79%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $50.91, natural gas down 1.57%, gold at $1131 an ounce, copper down 0.30%.
03:50 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY is plying a tight range
Subscribe for More Information
03:05 EDTFX Update: The euro has started the new week under pressure
Subscribe for More Information
July 17, 2015
17:04 EDTNew Home Sales to be reported at 10:00
June New Home Sales will be reported at 10:00 . Current consensus is 550K
19:24 EDTPMI Manufacturing Index Flash Level to be reported at 09:45
Subscribe for More Information
19:24 EDTChicago Fed National Activity Index Level to be reported at 08:30
Subscribe for More Information
19:24 EDTFHFA House Price Index M/M change to be reported at 09:00
Subscribe for More Information
19:24 EDTExisting Home Sales to be reported at 10:00
June Existing Home Sales will be reported at 10:00 . Current consensus is 5.400M
15:10 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Subscribe for More Information
14:10 EDTFedspeak goes into hibernation for about a week
Subscribe for More Information
13:47 EDTMarket internals weak as market remains mixed
Stocks remain mixed as they have been for most of the day. The Nasdaq continues to be the strongest of the indices and is higher by 0.6%. Declining stocks are ahead of advancing stocks by more than 2:1 and down volume is also ahead of up volume. Crude oil prices are struggling to stay above the $50 a barrel level while gold prices are lower by 1%.
13:45 EDTAction Economics Survey results
Subscribe for More Information
13:20 EDTEnergy Action: Baker-Hughes released U.S. weekly oil rig count
Subscribe for More Information
13:10 EDTU.S. equities continue to loiter in mixed trade
U.S. equities continue to loiter in mixed trade with NASDAQ still propped up 0.5% by Google and its cost-cutting bottom line, while the blue chips are still sideways in the red. The Euro Stoxx 50 settled down 0.17%, with the German DAX off 0.37% as the totality of the Greek bailout process sets in. Among the top performers in the Dow are GE +0.76%, IBM +0.5% and Apple +0.29% with a little halo effect in tech surrounding Google. Unfortunately that's not helping Intel, which is off 2%, while Chevron -1.3% and Boeing -1.2% are also trailing. WTI crude continues to sag, off 0.5% near $50.60 bbl, while precious metals are 0.9-1.0% after fast-money selling earlier. The Treasury curve is also flattening as the bond continues to outperform.
12:40 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY maintained a very narrow trading range
Subscribe for More Information
12:05 EDTTreasury Option Action: bond volatility dipped
Treasury Option Action: bond volatility dipped amid sales of 10k in September 155/156 call spreads, thought to be a liquidation from a trade established last week. There was also 9k traded in the middle strike of a August 153/155/157 call butterfly. September 10s are 22-ticks firmer near 152-01 compared to their 152-11 to 151-06 range on Globex, as the very long-end continues to pace gains and flatten the curve.
12:03 EDTiShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bd volatility at low end of range
Subscribe for More Information
11:00 EDTFed is dug in on raising interest rates in 2015
Subscribe for More Information
10:40 EDTToday's U.S. reports
Today's U.S. reports revealed a big June housing starts and permits spike that left a massive Q2 surge after a dismal Q1 performance, though the June gain was heavily concentrated in the multi-family component and the northeast. Starts under construction posted steady growth however, and this lifted GDP prospects. Analysts also saw stronger than expected June CPI gains of 0.3% for the headline and 0.2% for the core, and both early morning reports reinforced our assumption of a Fed tightening in September, as is also consistent with Janet Yellen's Wednesday testimony. Analysts saw a July Michigan sentiment drop to 93.3 that capped the day's good news, though analysts assume a boost to the 94 area in the final report, and analysts still assume only a small July Consumer confidence drop to 100.0 from 101.4 in June.
10:35 EDTFed VC Fischer says the Fed has to be accountable and transparent
Subscribe for More Information
10:20 EDTThe July Michigan sentiment drop to 93.3
Subscribe for More Information
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields retreated from highs
Subscribe for More Information
10:10 EDTU.S. consumer sentiment fell 2.8 points to 93.3 in the July preliminary print
Subscribe for More Information
10:10 EDTFX Action: The dollar largely shrugged off
FX Action: The dollar largely shrugged off the softer Michigan sentiment print, leaving EUR-USD at 1.0850, though still near session lows, and USD-JPY quiet at 124.05. Stocks are mixed, while yields are a touch lower.
09:40 EDTFed Policy Outlook: analysts're still on for a September rate hike
Subscribe for More Information
09:40 EDTU.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview
Subscribe for More Information
09:33 EDTAverages mixed in early trade as Google lifts Nasdaq
Subscribe for More Information
09:25 EDTGuggenheim analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Analysts provide an update on Washington policies on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on July 17 at 11 am.
09:22 EDTBarclays healthcare analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Subscribe for More Information
09:15 EDTThe 0.319% June U.S. CPI rise with a 0.179% core price gain
Subscribe for More Information
09:10 EDTU.S. equities have perked up
Subscribe for More Information
08:55 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD trade to 1.3007 highs
Subscribe for More Information
08:46 EDTWeek of 7/20 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
08:46 EDTWeek of 7/29 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
Subscribe for More Information
08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar moved slightly higher
FX Action: The dollar moved slightly higher after the in-line CPI and sharply higher housing starts data. EUR-USD dipped into 1.0875 from near 1,0890, as USD-JPY touched 124.10, up from just under 124.00. Equity futures were little changed, indicating a mostly firmer Wall Street open, while yields edged up marginally.
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields probed higher
Subscribe for More Information
08:45 EDTU.S. housing starts rebounded 9.8% to an 1,174k pace in June
Subscribe for More Information
08:40 EDTU.S. June CPI rose 0.3% with the core rate up 0.2%
Subscribe for More Information
08:37 EDTFutures remain mixed with Nasdaq leading, Dow lagging
Stock futures remain mixed following the release of several economic data points. Housing starts in June rose 9.8%, versus expectations for them to be up 6.7%, while building permits rose 7.4%, versus expectations for them to decline 8.0%. Consumer prices rose 0.3% in the month of June, as expected. The core CPI, which strips out food and energy, grew 0.2%, also matching the consensus expectation.
08:25 EDTFed Vice Chair Fischer will be speaking
Subscribe for More Information
08:25 EDTU.S. CPI Preview
U.S. CPI Preview: June CPI should reveal a 0.2% (median 0.3%) increase for the headline with a matching 0.2% (median 0.2%) increase for the core. The already released PPI data revealed a headline increase of 0.4% with the core up 0.3%. Plunging oil prices over the winter and spring worked to depress inflation measures, but analysts have begun to see some rebound as this effect dissipates.
08:25 EDTU.S. Housing Starts Preview
Subscribe for More Information
08:10 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude managed a high of just $51.20
Energy Action: NYMEX crude managed a high of just $51.20 overnight, and has since dropped back to $50.64, a nine-session low. Reports that Iran is beginning to ship ship-stored crude to Asia has weighed on sentiment, with an estimated 20-30 M bbls expected to hit the market in the coming weeks. OPEC and U.S. production meanwhile, continues to keep the supply/demand equation out of balance. The July 7 lows of $50.56 is the next downside target. RBOB gasoline futures have recovered from three-month lows of $1.8527/gallon seen on Wednesday, currently trading at $1.90, leaving U.S. average retail prices at $2.76/gallon, down 4 cents over the past month. Natural gas futures are steady near $2.88/M BTU.
08:10 EDTCanada CPI Preview
Subscribe for More Information
07:55 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are consolidating
Subscribe for More Information
07:50 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
Subscribe for More Information
07:10 EDTFX Update: The dollar continued to trade in perky fashion
Subscribe for More Information
07:03 EDTFutures mixed ahead of economic data, more earnings
Stock futures are mixed ahead of options expiration. Investors are focused on earnings reports, especially General Electric (GE), which many consider a proxy for the overall economy. The Nasdaq is being supported by a strong advance in shares of Google (GOOG), which are rising after its earnings report last night. Investors will receive a host of economic data this morning, including reports on housing, consumer prices and consumer sentiment.
06:14 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for July 17
Subscribe for More Information
06:00 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for July 17
Subscribe for More Information
05:49 EDTJuly front month equity options last day to trade is today, July 17, 2015
Subscribe for More Information
04:55 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has recouped the 124 handle
Subscribe for More Information
02:50 EDTFX Update: The dollar has continued to trade firm
FX Update: The dollar has continued to trade firm against most other currencies and commodities. USD-JPY has logged a fresh three-week high at 124.23, EUR-USD has failed to hold rebound gains above 1.0900 after clocking a 15-week low yesterday at 1.0855, and USD-CAD has made a new six-year peak of 1.2973. An exception has been Cable, with sterling holding up well as markets discount BoE tightening alongside a Fed tightening. GBP-USD has held steady in the 1.56s while EUR-GBP has slipped to a fresh eight-year low at 0.6951. The Aussie has held up comparatively firm too, with AUD-USD holding steady around 0.7400 after recovering from yesterday's major-trend low at 0.7350, despite RBA's Edwards saying that, "I certainly think analysts have room to move lower" regarding the currency. Elsewhere, it has been another positive day for Chinese stock markets, and most other Asian markets too.
02:45 EDTFX Update: The dollar has continued to trade firm
Subscribe for More Information
July 16, 2015
17:08 EDTWeek of 7/24 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 10:30
17:08 EDTWeek of 7/26 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to be released at 09:45
Subscribe for More Information
22:00 EDTJobless Claims to be reported at 08:30
Subscribe for More Information
16:15 EDTGoogle is scooting higher in late trade
Subscribe for More Information
16:00 EDTSenator Warren is hammering Yellen on living wills
Subscribe for More Information
15:20 EDTYellen: acknowledged there are risks of tightening too soon
Subscribe for More Information
15:00 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Subscribe for More Information
14:45 EDTYellen is appearing before the Senate Banking Committee this afternoon
Yellen is appearing before the Senate Banking Committee this afternoon. Analysts don't expect any policy surprises out of her Q&A today. She repeated yesterday before the House Committee that a rate increase this year seems appropriate, but will be dependent on whether the data support the FOMS's outlook, and to some extent, financial conditions. Her assessment of the economy was relatively upbeat, and she is optimistic that inflation will be moving up to the 2% target.
14:19 EDTMarket approaching all-time highs in afternoon trading
Subscribe for More Information
14:05 EDTU.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview
Subscribe for More Information
14:05 EDTTreasury Action: curve flattening remains the theme
Treasury Action: curve flattening remains the theme ahead of Yellen's Senate testimony with the front end underperforming. The 2-year yield is up over 3 bps to 0.657%, while the 10-year rate is flat at 2.35% after recovering from early losses. That's narrowed the 2s-10s spread to 169 bps today from 172 bps yesterday and 177 bps on Monday. The September 16, 17 FOMC is still seen as a likely date for rate liftoff (or December 15, 16) after the Fed Chair didn't really offer much opposition to that time frame in recent comments. And while recent data have been mixed, the weaker numbers have merely supported forecasts for a gradual tightening path once normalization gets underway, rather than negate expectations for a 2015 hike. Analysts suspect the curve can revisit the recent narrows of 150 bps from late May.
14:05 EDTU.S. Housing Starts Preview
Subscribe for More Information
14:00 EDTU.S. CPI Preview
U.S. CPI Preview: June CPI is out Friday and should reveal a 0.2% (median 0.3%) increase for the headline with a matching 0.2% (median 0.2%) increase for the core. The already released PPI data revealed a headline increase of 0.4% with the core up 0.3%. Plunging oil prices over the winter and spring worked to depress inflation measures but analysts have begun to see some rebound as this effect dissipates.
13:35 EDTTreasury Option Action: more mixed trade
Subscribe for More Information
12:55 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY continues to hold
Subscribe for More Information
12:35 EDTToday's U.S. reports
Today's U.S. reports revealed disappointing July Philly Fed data, though initial claims fell 15k to reverse last week's pop, and the NAHB firmed to 60 in both June (was 59) and July. For Philly Fed, analysts saw a 6.5-point headline drop to 5.7 with broad-based component weakness that left the ISM-adjusted index falling to 50.3. The July readings sit close to the 5.0 March one-year low for the headline and 47.6 March two-year low for the ISM-adjusted measure, as the upturn in producer sentiment is proving anemic at best as analysts enter Q3. For claims, the 281k weekly reading translates to a 286k average thus far in July versus lower recent averages of 277k in June, 274k in May, and 281k in April, though analysts attribute the early July gyrations entirely to a holiday distortion and the impact of auto retooling.
11:55 EDTTreasury Option Action: little Yellen premium
Subscribe for More Information
11:30 EDTYellen Part II - Don't Tread on the Fed:
Yellen Part II - Don't Tread on the Fed: the Fed chief will resume testimony before the Senate Banking Committee from 14:30 ET, which will hopefully focus more on policy dynamics than politicization. Yesterday Fed Chair Yellen largely mirrored the recent FOMC statement and her own speech last week expressing cautious optimism about the expected rebound in U.S. growth, amid frustration about the continued low level of inflation. She cited global risks to this mostly healthy appraisal, and reiterated that it is not the lift-off but the policy path and pace of tightening that really matters. She expects a gradual tightening pace that still keeps policy accommodative, and she had a dig at any Congressional meddling with Fed independence.
11:25 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has reacted
Subscribe for More Information
11:15 EDTTreasury announced a $15 B 10-year TIPS offering for next Thursday
Subscribe for More Information
11:05 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude touched $50.99
Subscribe for More Information
10:30 EDTEIA natural gas storage change for week ending July 10
Subscribe for More Information
10:30 EDTThe Philly Fed July drop to 5.7
Subscribe for More Information
10:15 EDTU.S. Philly Fed index dropped 9.5 points to 5.7 in July
Subscribe for More Information
10:15 EDTU.S. NAHB homebuilder sentiment index was steady at 60 in July
Subscribe for More Information
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields dipped on the Philly Fed miss
Treasury Action: yields dipped on the Philly Fed miss in July, which corrected the outsized June gain, while shrugging off the elevated NAHB housing market index, which sustained the highest level since November 2005. The T-note yield touched NY session lows near 2.37% having pulled back from an early test of the 2.40% pivot following the uptick in claims, ECBspeak and gains in stocks. The 2s-10s spread has narrowed another 2 basis points to +170 bp.
10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar pulled back
Subscribe for More Information
09:59 EDTGreek austerity passage lifts market
Subscribe for More Information
09:50 EDTNAHB housing market index preview:
NAHB housing market index preview: the NAHB HMI is forecast to hold steady at 59 in July after jumping 4-points from 55 in May. For more detail, see the NAHB website.
09:40 EDTU.S. Philadelphia Fed Index Preview
U.S. Philadelphia Fed Index Preview: The July Philly Fed is expected to decline to 11.0 (median 12.0) after last month's surge to 15.2 from 6.7. The already released Empire State index rose to 3.9 in July from -2.0 last month. Overall, producer sentiment looks poised to ease slightly in July with the ISM-adjusted average for the month falling to 52 from 53 in June and 51 in the two months prior.
09:35 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: open interest changes
Subscribe for More Information
09:20 EDTFed Policy Outlook: Yellen reprises her testimony today
Fed Policy Outlook: Yellen reprises her testimony today before the Senate Banking Committee. There were no tape bombs yesterday, nor any fresh insight on the timing of liftoff, be it September, December, or 2016. And analysts don't expect anything different today. The Q&A was highly politicized as House representatives focused on regulatory issues and failures, discrimination, and the leak, rather than on policy matters. She was relatively upbeat on the economy, though she repeated that there is still slack in the labor market. She also reiterated that the policy path is data dependent, which will keep attention on upcoming numbers. Analysts still believe September to be the liftoff date, until data or financial conditions take it out of play, as many policymakers have argued for action sooner, which should allow for a more gradual trajectory.
08:50 EDTU.S. equities posted decent gains
Subscribe for More Information
08:48 EDTBofA/Merrill strategists & economists hold an analyst/industry conference call
Subscribe for More Information
08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar remains at or near session highs
FX Action: The dollar remains at or near session highs after the better jobless claims data. EUR-USD is just above its 1.0865 intra day low, as USD-JPY touched 124.17 highs. Equity futures remain above water, though off their best levels, as Treasury yields moved marginally higher. Focus now shifts to the ECB press conference, where Greece will be in the spotlight.
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields ticked up marginally
Subscribe for More Information
08:45 EDTThe 15k U.S. initial claims drop to 281k
Subscribe for More Information
08:41 EDTFutures remain higher ahead of open
Subscribe for More Information
08:40 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims dropped 15k to 281k in the week ended July 11
Subscribe for More Information
08:10 EDTU.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview: Initial claims data for the week of July 11 should dip 3k to 294k (median 285k) headline for the week following the spike to 297k in the week of July 4. Last week marked the beginning of the typically volatile auto retooling period. As analysts discussed in our June 30th commentary analysts see balanced risks to claims for the remainder of the month as analysts move through this period.
08:00 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude advanced
Subscribe for More Information
07:51 EDTECB keeps key interest rates unchanged
Subscribe for More Information
07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds are weaker as risk appetite improves
Treasury Market Outlook: bonds are weaker as risk appetite improves after the Greek parliament voted to approve pension cuts and a VAT, with the Eurozone reportedly agreeing to a EUR 7 B bridge loan. Core yields are only up a basis point or two, however, with the Treasury 10-year at 2.37% and the German Bund at 0.85%. European bourses are up about 1.5% on the news out of Greece. The markets now await the ECB decision, a steady stance is widely anticipated, and more importantly Draghai's presser. Fed Chair Yellen's Congressional testimony part II is also awaited. Today's data line up includes the Philly Fed index for July, jobless claims for the week ended July 11, the July NAHB homebuilder survey, and the May TIC report. There are earnings reports from Google, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, eBay, Blackstone, and Schlumberger.
07:50 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
Subscribe for More Information
07:21 EDTSenate Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs Committee to hold a hearing
Subscribe for More Information
07:14 EDTFCC to hold a meeting
Open Commission Meeting is being held at the FCC's Washington, D.C. offices on July 16 at 10:30 am. Webcast Link
07:12 EDTFederal Energy Regulatory Commission to hold a meeting
Subscribe for More Information
07:10 EDTFutures higher following Greek austerity approval
Subscribe for More Information
07:10 EDTThe SEC Investor Advisory Committee to hold quarterly meeting
Subscribe for More Information
07:07 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
Subscribe for More Information
06:50 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD posted fresh six-week lows under 1.0900
FX Update: EUR-USD posted fresh six-week lows under 1.0900 amid euro underperformance, with EUR-PY logging six-day lows and EUR-GBP and extending further into eight-year low territory. In the case of EUR-USD, the latest fall has built on dollar-driven declines seen after yesterday's testimony by Fed Chair Yellen. The euro's losses today came despite gains in European stock markets and the prevailing view that yesterday's successful vote on creditor-approved reform proposals has reduced the risk of Grexit. USD-JPY consolidated in the upper 123s, testing but not breaching yesterday's three-week peak at 123.97. USD-CAD has consolidated in a narrow range above 1.2900 after yesterday's sharp rally following the unexpected BoC rate cut, which left a six-year peak at 1.2958.
05:58 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for July 16
Globex S&P futures are recently down 7.75 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 0.67%, Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index up 0.77%, DAX up 1.54%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $52.03, natural gas up 0.01%, gold at $1144 an ounce, copper up 1.75%.
02:45 EDTFX Update: The dollar is generally firmer
Subscribe for More Information
July 15, 2015
17:15 EDTWeek of 7/24 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30
17:15 EDTWeek of 7/24 MBA Mortgage Applications to be released at 07:00
Subscribe for More Information
15:05 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Subscribe for More Information
14:20 EDTFed's Beige Book showed economic activity expanded
Fed's Beige Book showed economic activity expanded at a modest to moderate pace in most Districts. The report, prepared by the Atlanta Fed using data collected on or before July 3, also revealed a varied pattern of consumer spending, with lower energy pricing boosting consumption while some border Districts noting weakness tied to the firmer dollar. Auto sales were generally solid. Manufacturing was uneven. Nonfinancial services posted moderate growth versus the prior report. Transportation activity was mixed. Reports on residential and commercial activity were mostly positive. Lending activity picked up. Employment levels were steady or increased, tough there were reports of layoffs in manufacturing and energy related sectors. Only modest wage pressures were seen except from positions that required specialized special skills or were in high demand.
14:02 EDTFed says all districts reported expanded economic activity from mid-May to June
Subscribe for More Information
13:55 EDTU.S. Philadelphia Fed Index Preview
U.S. Philadelphia Fed Index Preview: The July Philly Fed is out Thursday and analysts expect a headline decline to 11.0 (median 12.0) after last month's surge to 15.2 from 6.7. The already released Empire State index rose to 3.9 in July from -2.0 last month. Overall, producer sentiment looks poised to ease slightly in July with the ISM-adjusted average for the month falling to 52 from 53 in June and 51 in the two months prior.
13:40 EDTU.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview
Subscribe for More Information
13:35 EDTFed Chair Yellen concluded her testimony
Fed Chair Yellen concluded her testimony. There were no tape bombs or revelations, leaving bonds and stocks to meander quietly. The markets flinched initially on release of her prepared testimony as the likelihood for a 2015 rate hike was repeated. But, prices have moved slightly higher now as traders had prepared for the possibility of some hawkish commentary, and after some stronger than expected data has been easily digested. The long end leads the gains with the yield at 2.35% after testing 2.43% early on. A 6 bp drop in the Bund yield was also supportive. Meanwhile the 2-year sate has slipped to 0.625% versus an intraday high of 0.67%.
13:00 EDTFed funds futures have rebounded from early losses
Subscribe for More Information
12:50 EDTDon't Tread on the Fed:
Subscribe for More Information
12:50 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD peaked at 1.2945
FX Action: USD-CAD peaked at 1.2945, with the latest uptick coming after BoC governor Poloz left the door open for further easing. Option backed selling is rumored from 1.2980 now, with some talk of 1.3000 option barriers heard. The March 9, 2009 peak of 1.2995 should provide good resistance, though above there, the 1.30 level looms, which was last traded on September 4 of 2004, according to Federal Reserve Bank historical data.
12:45 EDTCleveland Fed hawk Mester: monetary policy can take a step back
Subscribe for More Information
12:35 EDTTreasury Option Action: chop picked up
Treasury Option Action: chop picked up with Yellen's testimony after very subdued overnight session. Some 15.6k in August 125 put longs were rolled out to September on 10-year futures and another 10k September 117.75/117.5 "put stupids" were sold (more exits) on 5-year futures. Out of London were reports of buyers of put spreads on September Bunds to sell calls, though some warned of risk of further Bund gains after they took out yesterday's highs. Looking ahead, the Beige Book is on tap, though reaction should be blunted by Yellen's balanced policy testimony in advance. A Greece parliamentary vote at 19 GMT is the next hurdle and a break of 126-07 on the September 10-year future would be bullish for the next leg higher to the 127-00 zone.
12:26 EDTGundlach says 'quite likely' that ten year bond sees 2% this year
Gundlach says China "really kind of concerning" and that its stock market is "far too murky" to be investing in. Doubleline Capital's Jeff Gundlach continues speaking on CNBC.
12:20 EDTGundlach believes Fed will not raise rates this year
Subscribe for More Information
12:15 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude peaked at $52.84
Subscribe for More Information
12:10 EDTTreasury Action: there's been nothing new on the Fed policy front
Subscribe for More Information
11:20 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY came up just shy of the 124 level
FX Action: USD-JPY came up just shy of the 124 level, peaking at 123.97 after spiking from 123.40 to 123.80 in the aftermath of the PPI/Yellen news. The June 26 peak of 123.98 provides resistance, while the usual talk of Japanese exporter offers from 124.00 has capped gains for now.
11:15 EDTFed Chair Yellen said Greek and Chinese issues are not new
Subscribe for More Information
11:10 EDTTreasury Action: yields have steadied mid-range
Subscribe for More Information
11:05 EDTFed Chair Yellen said a rate rise sometime this year is likely appropriate
Subscribe for More Information
10:47 EDTStephens energy analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Subscribe for More Information
10:44 EDTStephens retail/consumer analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Subscribe for More Information
10:30 EDTCrude inventories for week of July 10
Subscribe for More Information
10:25 EDTToday's U.S. reports
Subscribe for More Information
10:20 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD spiked higher
FX Action: USD-CAD spiked higher after the BoC announcement, where rates were cut by 25 basis points to 0.50%. The statement revealed concerns over the growth outlook, exports, and commodity prices. USD-CAD rallied to 1.2923 highs, levels last seen better than six years ago. The March 9, 2009 peak of 1.2995 will be the next upside target, though some initial profit taking has seen the pairing pull back under 1.2900 for now.
09:55 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: a hefty trade ran through
Subscribe for More Information
09:50 EDTU.S. industrial production beat estimates
Subscribe for More Information
09:35 EDTStocks open quietly while Fed Chair speaks on Capitol Hill
In the first of two scheduled days of testimony before Congress, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen stuck to her message that the central bank is on track to raise record-low interest rates this year, so long as the labor market and the economy keep improving. It has been a busy morning for data, with the latest report prior to the open showing industrial production increased 0.3% in June, versus expectations for an increase of 0.2%. In early trading, the Dow is up 8 points, the Nasdaq is up 10 points and the S&P is up 2 points.
09:30 EDTTreasury Action: yields settled down from highs
Subscribe for More Information
09:15 EDTU.S. Industrial Production Preview
Subscribe for More Information
09:05 EDTThe 0.4% U.S. June PPI rise
Subscribe for More Information
09:05 EDTU.S. equities are in shallow positive territory
Subscribe for More Information
09:00 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD posted session highs
Subscribe for More Information
08:55 EDTThe Empire State July bounce to 3.89 from a 29-month low of-1.98
Subscribe for More Information
08:50 EDTU.S. Empire State manufacturing index rebounded to 3.86 in July
U.S. Empire State manufacturing index rebounded to 3.86 in July after falling to -1.98 in June. However the employment index slid to 3.19 from 8.65, with the workweek at 4.26 from 3.85. New orders weakened further, falling to -3.50 from -2.12. Prices paid dipped to 7.45 from 9.62, but prices received rose to 5.32 from 0.96. The 6-month business conditions index edged up to 27.04 from 24.04, with employment at 9.57 from 13.46, new orders at 32.22 from 26.10, and capital expenditures at 21.28 from 11.54.
08:50 EDTU.S. PP (final demand) rose 0.4% in June, with the core rate up 0.3%
Subscribe for More Information
08:45 EDTFed Chair Yellen: a rate rise sometime this year is likely appropriate
Fed Chair Yellen: a rate rise sometime this year is likely appropriate, she repeated in her prepared testimony, which largely tracked last week's speech. The policy decision will be on a meeting by meeting basis. The economy continues to improve, and there could be some snap-back as headwinds abate. But some slack still remains in the labor market, and analysts're not yet at full employment. Inflation should gradually move up to the 2% target. The pace of tightening will be gradual. She said foreign developments still pose some risks, with the Greek situation difficult while China still faces challenges.
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields reversed to highs
Subscribe for More Information
08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar rallied
Subscribe for More Information
08:37 EDTFutures remain quiet ahead of market open
Subscribe for More Information
08:35 EDTEmpire State Mfg Survey General Business Conditions Index data reported
Subscribe for More Information
08:30 EDTConsumers are wildcard in Yellen's mid-year outlook:
Subscribe for More Information
08:25 EDTFed Chair Yellen's prepared testimony will be released at 8:30 ET
Subscribe for More Information
08:15 EDTU.S. PPI Preview
Subscribe for More Information
08:15 EDTU.S. NY Fed "Empire State" Index Preview
U.S. NY Fed "Empire State" Index Preview: The Empire State index kicks off the July producer sentiment measures and analysts expect the headline to rise to 4.0 (median 2.0) after a decline to -2.0 in June. After some winter and spring weakness the measures of producer sentiment began to rebound in June with an ISM-adjusted average of 53 after holding at 51 for the two months prior.
08:14 EDTBarclays Euro integrated oi/gas analyst holds analyst/industry conference call
Subscribe for More Information
08:05 EDTCanada Manufacturing Preview
Subscribe for More Information
08:00 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President speaks on monetary policy
John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, speaks on monetary policy at the Mesa Chamber of Commerce Luncheon Meeting being held in Mesa, Arizona on July 15 at 3 pm.
08:00 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude has settled into the $52.60 region
Subscribe for More Information
07:57 EDTJoint Economic Committee to hold a hearing
Subscribe for More Information
07:55 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of Cleveland speaks at luncheon meeting
Subscribe for More Information
07:52 EDTHouse Committee on Small Business to hold a hearing
Subscribe for More Information
07:47 EDTBank of Canda Governor to hold press conference
Governor of the Bank of Canada, Stephen S. Poloz, and Senior Deputy Governor, Carolyn Wilkins, hold a Press Conference to discuss the Monetary Policy Report on July 15 at 11:15 am. Webcast Link
07:44 EDTHouse Financial Services Committee to hold a hearing
Subscribe for More Information
07:43 EDTSenate Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs Committee to hold a hearing
Subscribe for More Information
07:40 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are mixed
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are mixed with the long end outperforming. The 10-year yield is modestly lower at 2.39% with the 2s-10s curve a little flatter at 175 bps ahead of Fed Chair Yellen's testimony. Trading volume was on the thin side. European bonds are firmer with Gilts leading the way after unemployment undershot expectations. Stocks are little changed with the exception of China where the Shanghai plunged another 3.0% even though Q2 GDP beat forecasts, rising 7.0% y/y. Greece remains a worry as the Greek parliamentary vote on the reform deal is awaited. In other news, the BoJ left policy unchanged. The German 10-year Bund auction was undersubscribed. As for the U.S, it's a busy day with June PPI, June industrial production, and the July Empire State index. The Fed releases its Beige Book for the July 28, 29 FOMC.
07:40 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
Subscribe for More Information
07:35 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index sank 1.9%
Subscribe for More Information
07:31 EDTFDA to hold a public meeting
Subscribe for More Information
07:11 EDTFutures quiet after four days of gains
U.S. equity futures are flat as the market will look to extend its most recent rally to its fifth consecutive day. In addition to the continuing parade of earnings reports, the domestic economic calendar includes Janet Yellen’s House testimony, reports on producer prices, manufacturing, industrial production, energy inventories and the release of the Fed’s Beige Book report.
06:40 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD traded moderately firmer
FX Update: EUR-USD traded moderately firmer as the Greek parliamentary vote on the reform deal is awaited. This, along with Fed Chair Yellen's testimony, presents EUR-USD with both upside and downside risks. China stocks traded lower for a second day after a several-day recovery hiatus, though Japanese equities and other markets in Asia still managed to gain. Chinese data were solid, with Q2 GDP coming in at +7.0% y/y, above the 6.8% expected, which is seen reflective of stimulus measures, while production and retail sales data for May also exceeded forecasts. This backdrop helped the yen weaken, albeit moderately. USD-JPY probed above 123.50, extending the recovery from yesterday's 122.92 low but remaining shy of yesterday's peak at 123.73. AUD-USD lifted on the Chinese data but ran into decent offers ahead of 0.7500, leaving a high at 0.7488, which has been a repeating pattern over the last week.
06:02 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for July 15
Subscribe for More Information
05:51 EDTJuly front month equity options last day to trade is July 17, 2015
Subscribe for More Information
05:35 EDTGreece sells EUR 0.813 B of 13 week Treasury bills
Subscribe for More Information
03:40 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY probed above 123.50
FX Action: USD-JPY probed above 123.50, extending the recovery from yesterday's 122.92 low but remaining shy of yesterday's peak at 123.73. Gains in the Nikkei, despite fresh losses on China equity markets, undermined the yen. The BoJ left policy unchanged following its meeting today, as was widely anticipated. The central bank sees that economy is recovering modestly, with a steady improvement in the employment and income situation. Private consumption has been resilient and housing investment has started to pick up. The annual pace of inflation is expected to be about 0% due to weaker energy prices. However, growth was revised down to a 1.7% rate from 2.0% previously. The BoJ is generally expected to be headed for further stimulation to offset a planned sales tax hike in 2016.
03:00 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY probed above 123.50
Subscribe for More Information
02:30 EDTFX Update: Narrow ranges prevailed
Subscribe for More Information
01:20 EDTBoJ left policy unchanged, as expected, with an 8-1 vote
BoJ left policy unchanged, as expected, with an 8-1 vote. The Bank will continue to purchase bonds so that the monetary base will be increased at an annual pace of JPY 80 tln. The economy is seen to be recovering modestly, with a steady improvement in the employment and income situation. Private consumption has been resilient and housing investment has started to pick up. The annual pace of inflation is expected to be about 0% due to weaker energy prices.
July 14, 2015
22:40 EDTChina GDP grew 7.0% y/y in Q2
Subscribe for More Information
16:07 EDT 4-Week Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
Subscribe for More Information
08:51 EDTS&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index to be reported at 09:00
Subscribe for More Information
15:47 EDTWeek of 7/25 Redbook to be released at 08:55
15:34 EDTGlobal X Funds volatility elevated into parliament vote on reforms
Subscribe for More Information
15:15 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Subscribe for More Information
15:15 EDTAction Alert: Yellen's prepared testimony will be released at 8:30 ET
Subscribe for More Information
14:23 EDTStocks drifting in positive ground in afternoon trading
Stocks remain in positive territory and near their session highs, with the Nasdaq's 0.6% gain making it the biggest winner. Advancing stocks are ahead of declining stocks by about 2:1 while up volume is even further ahead of down volume. Oil prices are higher up about 1% while gold is essentially flat for the session.
14:10 EDTU.S. Industrial Production Preview
Subscribe for More Information
14:05 EDTU.S. NY Fed "Empire State" Index Preview
U.S. NY Fed "Empire State" Index Preview: The Empire State index is out Wednesday to kick off the July producer sentiment measures and analysts expect the headline to rise to 4.0 (median 2.0) after a decline to -2.0 in June. After some winter and spring weakness the measures of producer sentiment began to rebound in June with an ISM-adjusted average of 53 after holding at 51 for the two months prior.
13:10 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY recovered to 123.45
Subscribe for More Information
12:40 EDTAtlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast was curiously boosted to 2.4%
Subscribe for More Information
12:30 EDTFed Policy Outlook: a September Fed rate hike is still in the cards
Subscribe for More Information
12:10 EDTAtlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast should be downgraded
Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast should be downgraded following the weak June retail sales reading, which should be out any time after 10 ET. The last GDPNow estimate was an upgrade for Q2 to 2.3% from 2.2% following the trade report, which is still shy of the 2.9% consensus for Blue Chip economists. Our own estimates for both Q2 and Q3 were cut to 2.5% (from 2.7%) and 3.4% (from 3.6%), respectively after this morning's key data. Keep an eye out for the GDPNow Update due momentarily.
12:00 EDTTreasury's $45 B 4-week bill was soft
Subscribe for More Information
11:50 EDTNY Fed credit survey showed significant loosening:
Subscribe for More Information
11:45 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: a flood of issuance has filled the calendar
U.S. corporate bond update: a flood of issuance has filled the calendar and the supply dynamics are limiting Treasury gains. There is a total of 13 companies slated so far today, the 3rd largest of the year, according to Bloomberg. EIB priced its $3 B 7-year note. And Export Development Bank of Canada priced a $1 B 5-year. PepsiCo and Kohl's each have benchmark 10- and 30-year deals, as does The Republic of Kazakhstan. JPMorgan is selling 10-year notes. So is Naspers. There is a 5-year offering from CIBC. Korea Gas launched a $500 M 10-year. Santander has a 10-year offering too, as does Nationwide Building Society. SMBC is doing a benchmark 3-year. USAA Capital has a $400 M 5-year.
11:45 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude is on N.Y. session highs
Subscribe for More Information
10:50 EDTTreasury Option Action: premiums have been squeezed
Subscribe for More Information
10:30 EDTThe 0.3% May U.S. business inventory rise matched estimates
The 0.3% May U.S. business inventory rise matched estimates, but it followed a 0.4% April gain that failed to reveal the expected upward revision to leave a slightly disappointing report overall. Inventory restraint signals downside risk for our downwardly-revised 2.5% Q2 GDP estimate. Analysts saw a flat May retail inventory figure alongside a flat factory figure and a big 0.8% rise for wholesalers that both included price-boosts from petroleum. Analysts expect a $35 (was $35) B Q2 inventory subtraction in the Q2 GDP report that more than reverses a $19.5 B Q1 addition to leave a still-elevated $64 B Q2 accumulation rate. Analysts lowered our Q2 GDP estimate to 2.5% from 2.7% this morning in response to the weak June retail sales report. Risk for the 2015 economy can be seen in the lofty inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio, which sat at 1.36 for a third consecutive month, following the 1.37 expansion-high in February. Despite the three-month downtick, the ratio remains well above the 1.27-1.31 ratios between May of 2012 and October of last year. The I/S ratio is well above the 1.24 floor seen in March of 2011.
10:25 EDTTreasury Action: yields consolidated above lows
Treasury Action: yields consolidated above lows following the next data round on inventories, which didn't rock the boat. The benchmark T-note yield based near 2.39% and inched back up to 2.41% compared to pre-retail 2.45% session highs. Notwithstanding Yellen's upcoming testimony, sources are looking ahead warily to the Greek parliamentary vote late Wednesday, which could cap yields. The 2s-10s spread is near +177 bp and the Bund/T-note spread is holding near -157 bp.
10:10 EDTU.S. business inventories rose 0.3% in May, with sales up 0.4%
Subscribe for More Information
10:01 EDTBusiness Inventories data reported
Subscribe for More Information
09:46 EDTAverages mixed at open, rise in early trade after retail sales miss
Subscribe for More Information
09:45 EDTU.S. Business Inventories Preview
Subscribe for More Information
09:40 EDTCFA Society of San Francisco to hold a luncheon meeting
Luncheon Meeting with Steve deHaan, Managing Diretor at Andersen Tax who holds a speech entitled, "Critical Tax Issues for Early Stage Company Founders and Executives" in San Francisco on July 14 at 2:30 pm.
09:40 EDTThe U.S. trade price report undershot assumptions
Subscribe for More Information
09:25 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures lurched higher
Subscribe for More Information
09:25 EDTWeakness in today's U.S. retail sales report
Weakness in today's U.S. retail sales report has prompted downward revisions in our GDP forecasts for both Q2 and Q3, given a broad-based June sales drop after big downward revisions for April and May. The odd retail sales weakness of the Q4-Q1 period is reappearing after the post-winter bounce, as consumers remain reluctant to spend the savings from cheaper gasoline. Analysts lowered our Q2 GDP growth estimate to 2.5% from 2.7%, with a trimming in our Q2 "real" consumption growth estimate to 2.6% from 2.9%. For Q3, analysts expect 3.4% (was 3.6%) real GDP growth with a 2.2% (was 2.9%) real pace for consumption. Analysts assume a flat June nominal PCE figure with a 0.2% "real" drop and a 0.2% PCE chain price rise that matches our June CPI estimate. The savings rate should rebound to back to the 5.4% two-year peak also seen in February and April from 5.1% in May, as the rate continues to oscillate above the 4.4% recent-trough in November and the 4.1% cycle-low in December of 2013. The business inventory report later this morning will reveal a 0.4% May sales rise after a 0.5% (was 0.6%) April increase.
09:20 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD pulled back
Subscribe for More Information
09:10 EDTU.S. equities remained in the red
Subscribe for More Information
08:56 EDTRedbook Store Sales data reported
Subscribe for More Information
08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields gapped lower
Subscribe for More Information
08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar headed briefly lower
Subscribe for More Information
08:43 EDTFutures remain quiet after unexpected drop in retail sales
Stock futures remain quiet as investors pore over the first set of big bank earnings reports from Wells Fargo (WFC) and JPMorgan (JPM). Retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.3% in June, versus expectations for growth of 0.3%. If autos and gas are removed from the data, the core reading was down 0.2%, versus expectations for it to be up 0.4%. The import price index fell 0.1% last month, versus expectations for it to be up 0.1%. Futures are mixed following the data, with the Dow pointing to a slight fall at the open, the Nasdaq pointing toward a mild gain and the S&P indicated to be flat.
08:20 EDTU.S. Retail Sales Report
Subscribe for More Information
08:20 EDTU.S. Import and Export Prices Preview
U.S. Import and Export Prices Preview: June trade price data should reveal a 0.2% (median 0.2%) increase for import prices with a 0.1% decline for export prices. This follows respective May figures of 1.3% for import prices and 0.6% for export prices. Import prices were weighed down over the winter by the collapse in oil prices but managed to post a gain in May with a 12.7% petroleum component increase. Oil prices continued their climb in June but by a much smaller 0.9%.
08:15 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries have pared overnight gains
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries have pared overnight gains, in tandem with the action in bonds overseas. The 10-year note tested 2.40% before edging back up to 2.44%, while the German Bund yield fell to 0.806% before climbing back to 0.87%. Gilt yields have risen too after BoE chief Carney warned time is closing in on rate increases. Meanwhile, Greece is still a focal point as Tsipras tries to clear the latest debt deal with parliament before Wednesday's deadline. Also moving markets is weakness in oil prices on the announcement of an Iran nuclear accord. Prior to Fed Chair Yellen's Humphrey Hawkins testimony tomorrow, traders will l look to today's June retail sales data. Also today are June trade prices and May business inventories , along with weekly chain store sales. The hawkish KC Fed president George speaks.
08:11 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President speaks at symposium
Subscribe for More Information
08:10 EDTSenate Committee on Small Business to hold a hearing
The Committee holds a hearing entitled, "Challenges and Opportunities for Small Businesses Engaged in Energy Development and Energy Intensive Manufacturing" with President & CEO Toby Mack of Energy Equipment & Infrastructure Alliance and Persident Callahn of Alliance to Save Energy on July 14 at 2:30 pm. Webcast Link
08:10 EDTU.S. chain store sales fell 1.0% in the week ended July 11
U.S. chain store sales fell 1.0% in the week ended July 11, according to the Retail Economist, after a 2.1% increase the prior week, and ending a string of 4 straight gains. Sales slowed to a 1.9% pace from 3.0% previously. According to the report, heavy rains in some regions weighed on sales. Traffic was light despite summer clearance markdowns.
08:09 EDTHouse Committee on Foreign Affairs to hold a hearing
Subscribe for More Information
08:08 EDTHouse Energy & Commerce Committee to hold a hearing
Subscribe for More Information
08:07 EDTHouse Energy & Commerce Committee to hold a hearing
Subscribe for More Information
08:06 EDTSenate Energy & Natural Resources Committee holds a hearing
Subscribe for More Information
08:05 EDTHouse Financial Services Committee to hold a hearing
Subscribe for More Information
08:05 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries have pared overnight gains
Subscribe for More Information
07:55 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude fell to one-week lows
Subscribe for More Information
07:45 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
Subscribe for More Information
07:09 EDTFutures quiet as earnings season begins in earnest
U.S. equity futures are trading near fair value as investors look toward earnings reports from some of the country’s bellwethers, including two of its largest banks. On the geopolitical front, a deal was struck this morning on the Iranian nuclear program. On the domestic economic calendar, reports are scheduled on retail sales, business inventories and import prices.
06:11 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for July 14
Subscribe for More Information
06:05 EDTRussell 2000 Index 30-day implied volatility at 15, 52-week range 13 to 24
Subscribe for More Information
05:53 EDTJuly front month equity options last day to trade is July 17, 2015
Subscribe for More Information
02:25 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD dipped to a one-week low
Subscribe for More Information
<< 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | all recent NOSYMBOL news | >>

Sign up for a free trial to see the rest of the stories you've been missing.
I agree to the theflyonthewall.com disclaimer & terms of use