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Stock Market & Financial Investment News

News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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October 22, 2014
11:25 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude dove to $81.61
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10:35 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY managed 107.34 highs
FX Action: USD-JPY managed 107.34 highs in the aftermath of the U.S. CPI data, though the return of Japanese offers has resulted in a pullback under 107.20. Firmer U.S. Treasury yields are providing modest support, while the slow advance on Wall Street should limit downside as well.
10:31 EDTCrude Inventories for the week of October 17
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10:30 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD dropped to intra day lows of 1.1191
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09:46 EDTLimited futures action leads to relatively quiet open
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09:45 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: a couple of issues are pressuring Treasuries
U.S. corporate bond update: a couple of issues are pressuring Treasuries, with a big multi-tranche deal from Verizon reportedly the main culprit. Verizon has a 4-part deal, all benchmark in size, including 5-, 7-, 10- and 20-year paper. Also FMS Wertmangement has a $1.5 B 2-year note set to price. Omnicon has a benchmark sized 10-year. Yesterday saw the highest volume since April. Meanwhile, some are also already gearing up for next week's 2-, 5-, and 7-year Treasury auctions.
09:44 EDTWeek of 12/28 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to be released at 09:45
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09:44 EDTWeek of 12/21 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to be released at 09:45
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09:44 EDTWeek of 12/14 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to be released at 09:45
09:44 EDTWeek of 12/7 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to be released at 09:45
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09:44 EDTWeek of 11/30 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to be released at 09:45
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09:44 EDTWeek of 11/23 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to be released at 09:45
09:44 EDTWeek of 11/16 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to be released at 09:45
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09:44 EDTWeek of 11/9 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to be released at 09:45
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09:43 EDTWeek of 11/2 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to be released at 09:45
09:43 EDTWeek of 10/26 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to be released at 09:45
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09:43 EDTMaxim Group analysts to hold an analyst/industry conference call
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09:32 EDTSecurities and Exchange Commission to hold an open commission meeting
The Commission discusses whether to adopt rules relating to credit risk retention by securitizers of asset-backed securities, as mandated by Section 15G of the Exchange Act and Section 941(b) of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act in a meeting being held at SEC Washington, D.C. offices on October 22 at 10 am. Webcast Link
09:25 EDTTreasury Action: yields backed higher still
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09:10 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: more bearish positioning
Euro$ interest rate options: more bearish positioning included the purchase of 7.7k in 87/90/92 put butterflies on the Short December contract, with open interest built up to 409k on the 99 put, 317k on the 98.875 and 401k on the 98.75. Sources speculate that a Swiss based fund is behind the majority of this open interest. The December 2014 contract is flat at 99.76, while the deferreds are 1-4 ticks lower out the curve.
09:05 EDTThe 0.1% September U.S. CPI headline and core price gains
The 0.1% September U.S. CPI headline and core price gains left a headline overshoot attributable to a 0.3% food price rise that bucked market price declines, alongside a smaller than expected 0.7% energy price drop. The slight CPI core price undershoot reflected flat figures for apparel and new vehicle prices and a lean 0.1% medical price rise, alongside a 0.1% tobacco price drop. Analysts now expect a flat (was 0.1%) September PCE chain price figure with a 0.1% core price rise that slightly undershoots today's CPI figures, which rounded from 0.086% and 0.139%, respectively. Analysts now expect a 0.2% (was flat) September nominal PCE rise that overshoots last week's 0.3% September retail sales drop with a 0.2% ex-auto decline, alongside an unrevised 0.1% September estimate for the "real" PCE figure. Our 2.6% Q3 GDP growth forecast assumes 3.2% (was 3.0%) nominal and 2.0% "real" consumption growth, with a 1.2% (was 1.0%) chain price gain.
08:55 EDTU.S. equities are "moderately" lower to start
U.S. equities are "moderately" lower to start the session after a quieter European session and more chop in Asia. Core CPI rose a tame 0.1% headline and core, leaving the markets with little to leverage this morning per se. The Dow is 8-points lower, S&P fell 3-points and NASDAQ is off 4-points in pre-open action. Earnings results from Yahoo! and Broadcom were better than expected, helping put a backstop under the tech sector, while Boeing raised guidance and boosted blue chips. Dow Chemical rallied 3.5%, while VMware slumped over 6% after forecasting a miss. In Japan, the Topix and Nikkei both jumped roughly 2.6%, though the Shanghai Comp sank 0.5% and the HK Hang Seng was up 1.3%. In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 is in shallow positive territory as ECB's Coene was unable to dowse expectations of corporate bond buying ahead. That leaves little on the docket other than more earnings reports.
08:50 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD popped to intra day highs
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: a flurry of pre-CPI jitters
Treasury Action: a flurry of pre-CPI jitters drove the T-note yield over 2.22% from 2.19% earlier, but the data was pretty benign and yields settled back off over highs. Stocks remain ambivalent ahead of the open, while the dollar is making some inroads again. Failing a break of 2.23% week highs, look for a probe of the 2.13-2.12% area. The 2s-10s spread has meanwhile steadied below +185 bp.
08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar firmed broadly
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08:40 EDTU.S. CPI edged up 0.1% in September, with the core rate up 0.1%
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08:35 EDTFutures remain quiet following CPI data
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08:25 EDTU.S. CPI Preview
U.S. CPI Preview: The September overall-CPI is expected to decline 0.1% (median 0.1%), while the core index rises 0.2% (median 0.2%). Analysts've seen the expected weakness in inflationary data thus far, as declines in trade prices revealed the expected September headline hit from falling petroleum import and food export prices, as seen in both July and August. Further, the 0.1% PPI headline decline with flat core price undershot estimates thanks to a surprising 0.1% decline in service sector prices alongside the expected 0.2% drop in goods prices with component declines of 0.7% for both energy and food.
08:20 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is trading up at $82.78
Oil Action: NYMEX crude is trading up at $82.78, after ranging between $82.27 and $82.94 overnight. The improvement in risk taking levels, and recent China data indicating a rise in demand there, has prompted some short covering over the past two sessions. In the bigger picture however, a soft economic outlook for Europe and much of Asia, should see upside limited to the $85/bbl region.
07:40 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:39 EDTThe FDIC to hold a teleconference
eleconference focuses on common questions and answers pertaining to implementation of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's Ability-to-Repay/Qualified Mortgage and Loan Originator Compensation Final Rules and is being held on October 22 at 2 pm.
07:39 EDTCFA Society of Columbus to hold a luncheon meeting
Ryan Dobratz of Third Avenue Management is the guest speaker at a luncheon meeting being held in Columbus, Ohio on October 22 at 12 pm.
07:38 EDTBoston Security Analysts Society holds a discussion
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07:35 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index jumped 11.6%
U.S. MBA mortgage market index jumped 11.6% in data released earlier, in addition to a 4.8% drop in the purchase index and a 23.3% surge in the refinancing index for the week ended October 17. This was all a refinancing story, as the benchmark T-note yield hit a 16-month "taper tantrum" low of 1.86% and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate sank 10 basis points to 4.10%. That provided a "get out of jail free card" to a number of households to lower their monthly mortgage expenses through refis. The MBA noted: "Mortgage rates have fallen close to 30 basis points over the last four weeks. Refi application volume reached the highest level since November 2013 as a result, and the average loan balance for refinance applications increased to $306,400, the highest level in the survey's history." For more on the housing sector, see our existing home sales, housing starts and new home sales reports.
07:34 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
5th Australian REIT Conference is being held in Sydney, Australia on October 22-23.
07:33 EDTJefferson Companies to hold a conference
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07:30 EDTU.S. Chamber of Commerce to hold a summit
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07:29 EDTHoulihan Lokey to hold a conference
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07:26 EDTFutures quiet in early trading
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07:25 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are a little higher
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07:20 EDTFX Update: The dollar has traded generally firmer
FX Update: The dollar has traded generally firmer on the catalyst of bearish developments affecting the euro and sterling. EUR-USD lost about half a big figure from on the early London high at 1.2939, taking the pair back below 1.27. The move was prompted by Spanish news agency Efe reporting that 11 banks from six European countries are likely to fail the stress tests. Cable, meanwhile, made a six-day low at 1.6011 on the BoE minutes to the October MPC meeting, which showed a ratcheting up in the dovish language of the seven voters in favour of unchanged policy. USD-JPY logged a high at 107.12 during the Tokyo session, subsequently dipping back under 107 with the yen market lacking strong leads.
06:12 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for October 22
Globex S&P futures are recently down 5.10 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 2.64%, DAX up 0.20%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $82.51, natural gas down 0.27%, gold at $1246 an ounce, and copper up 0.01%.
05:58 EDTNovember front month equity options last day to trade is November 21, 2014
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03:35 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY is ebbing
FX Action: USD-JPY is ebbing slightly after earlier leaving a high at 107.12 during the Tokyo session. Japan's September trade balance came in with a deficit of JPY 958.3 B, worse than the expected JPY 780.0 B deficit, though a 6.9% rise in exports is encouraging given lacklustre domestic demand. The data has had minimal market impact. USD-JPY has been establishing a choppy consolidation range after a two-week correction period in the wake of the dollar logging a six-year peak at 110.09 on Oct-1. Support is marked at 106.25 and 106.00, major support at 105.19 (the Oct-14 correction base). Yesterday's five-day peak at 107.39 is resistance. Analysts remain USD-JPY bullish in the bigger picture, anticipating an eventual move on 115 on the back of divergent economic and central bank policy paths between the U.S. and Japan.
October 21, 2014
20:30 EDTJapan's September trade deficit widened 17.3% m/m to Y958.3 B
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16:37 EDTWeek of 11/1 Redbook to be released at 08:55
16:37 EDTWeek of 11/1 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales to be released at 07:45
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15:10 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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15:00 EDTCanada Retail Sales Preview
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14:15 EDTJapan's PM Abe Complicates BoJ Outlook:
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14:10 EDTTreasury Action: Treasuries are little changed
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12:55 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: more bearish positioning
Euro$ interest rate options: more bearish positioning has been spotted despite some outperformance at the short-end and on the underlying rate futures in the face of a stiff headwind from the impulsive equity rally. Among them were a 20k sale of Blue December 71put/81call in block trade (sold calls) and another 3k purchase of Short December 90/91 put spreads. But the December 2014 contract is now up a half-tick at 99.765, while the deferreds are 1-3 ticks firmer out the back-end.
12:10 EDTFed Policy Outlook: the meeting is a week away
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11:45 EDTTreasury's $34 B 4-week bill sale was solid
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11:30 EDTU.S. equities are building a fresh head of steam to the upside
U.S. equities are building a fresh head of steam to the upside propped up by a 1.6% rally on NASDAQ and a 2.3% gain on Apple following solid results overnight, as the firm's bullish holiday sales forecasts spreads some cheer to the tech sector. European shares have extended gains as well ahead of their close, with the Euro Stoxx 50 some 2% higher and the Dutch AEX leading with a 2.5% rally. Top gainers in the Dow are Home Depot +2% (after firm existing home sales), Disney +1.9% and Caterpillar +1.8% (after decent China data). Deepest declines were posted by Coke -6.3% (after its big earnings miss and cost cutting), IBM -4.1% (still reeling) and McDonald's -0.5% (continuing global sales slump). Despite this wide dispersion of results on net stocks are up and the VIX equity volatility index pulled back to a 2-week low of 16.36, down from 17.72 at the open and panic highs of 31.05 last Wednesday.
11:25 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY took a quick look over 106.90
FX Action: USD-JPY took a quick look over 106.90 earlier, though was later pushed back under 106.60, reportedly as sellers stepped in ahead of rumored 107.00 Japanese exporter offers. The better risk backdrop has limited downside, with the pairing back over 106.70 now, and analysts look for a 106.60-90 range to hold up through the close.
11:20 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: issuance continues to pick-up
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11:15 EDTNY Fed bought $1.536 B in notes
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10:45 EDTTreasury Option Action: mostly bearish positioning
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10:30 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying $1.4 B to $1.7 B in notes
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10:20 EDTU.S. existing home sales beat estimates
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10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields held near session highs
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10:10 EDTFX Action: The dollar edged higher
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10:10 EDTU.S. existing home sales rebounded 2.4% to 5.170 M in September
U.S. existing home sales rebounded 2.4% to 5.170 M in September following a 1.8% drop to 5.050 M in August. Single family sales popped up 2.0% after the 1.5% August decline (revised from -1.8%). Condo/coop sales bounced 5.2%, recovering from the prior 3.3% decline (revised from -1.7%). The months' supply of homes fell to 5.3 from 5.5. The median sales price fell to $209,700 from $218,400 (revised from $219,800). That's up 3.7% y/y. Data are better than expected and will support the rally on Wall Street.
09:45 EDTU.S. existing home sales preview:
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09:39 EDTMarket rises after earnings from Apple, five Dow members
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09:10 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has moved to intra day lows
FX Action: USD-CAD has moved to intra day lows of 1.1220, with domestic selling reportedly setting in on the break of London's 1.1243 low. The commodity and generally improved risk backdrop have aided the CAD, though good corporate bidding interest is noted at 1.1200, which could limit downside from here. In front of that, Friday's 1.1210 lows could provide interim support.
09:00 EDTTreasury Option Action: put buying has resumed
Treasury Option Action: put buying has resumed across the curve on the open, according to sources. This is with the grain of the relatively weaker start along the rate complex, including a bearish purchase of 1.5k in December 125.5/126.5 put 1x2s on 10-year futures and a purchase of 2k in September 96/97 put 1x2s on euro$s rate futures. December 10s are 7-ticks lower near 127-19, compared to a 128-085 to 127-16 range on Globex, while December 2014s on the euro$s are flat at 99.76 and the deferreds are 1-4.5 ticks lower to start.
08:45 EDToil Action: NYMEX crude is trading at $83.05/bbl,
oil Action: NYMEX crude is trading at $83.05/bbl, up marginally, after trading between $82.74 and $83.45 overnight. Firmer China demand helped support prices, while better than forecast growth and production data from the country improved the demand outlook. The market remains oversupplied overall however, and sources look for further selling into additional strength.
08:35 EDTU.S. equities were pulled higher
U.S. equities were pulled higher by a solid rally on European stocks after a Reuters article that the ECB could spread its asset purchases to corporate bonds by the New Year. Also the strong results on Apple after the close kick-started the ongoing rebound in tech sector stocks, along with solid earnings on Texas Instruments. The Dow is 52-points firmer, S&P gained 9-points and NASDAQ rallied 29-points in pre-open action. This followed a bumpy ride on Asian shares after the Nikkei -2.03% gave back half of its previous day's windfall made on the back of GPIF investment hopes, while the Shanghai Comp settled -0.72% lower after a decent run of monthly Chinese data reduced stimulus hopes. On the other hand, Europe was quite strong with a 1.1% gain on the Euro Stoxx 50 after the ECB story. Apple climbed over 2% after predicting record upcoming holiday sales following upsized iPhone, revamped iPads and the Apple Pay rollout. Coca-Cola sank over 3% after a miss and plans to cut expenses by $3 B. Up next is the release of existing home sales, seen growing 0.6% to 2.08 M in September.
08:00 EDTU.S. ICSC Goldman Sachs chain store sales index fell 0.3%
U.S. ICSC Goldman Sachs chain store sales index fell 0.3% in the week ended October 18 after declining 0.7% previously. The index has dropped in 4 of the last 6 weeks. Compared to last year, sales slowed to a 2.1% y/y rate from 3.8% y/y previously. Despite the headline dip, electronics, apparel, and discounter stores all saw solid sales, according to the report.
07:55 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are a little lower
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07:23 EDTFDIC to hold a meeting
Board of Directors Meeting is being held at the FDIC Building in Washington, D.C. on October 21 at 10 am. Webcast Link
07:20 EDTBloomberg Government to hold a discussion
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07:19 EDTFDA to hold a workshop on medical devices
Public Workshop: Collaborative Approaches for Medical Devices and Healthcare Cybersecurity will be held at the FDA Silver Spring, Maryland offices on October 21-22 at 8:30 am.
07:10 EDTFutures suggest continued volatility
U.S. equity futures are sharply higher and suggesting another triple digit move for the Dow. The market has been volatile over the past several weeks with triple digit moves the norm over that period. Today’s early move is being attributed to the earnings season kicking into high gear, with better than expected earnings last night from Apple (AAPL) and this morning from Dow components United Technologies (UTX) and Travelers (TRV). Investors will also be watching the report on existing home sales for September, which is due out after the bell.
07:09 EDTRoth Capital to hold symposium
ROTH Solar Symposium & Booth Tours to be held in Las Vegas on October 21-22.
06:47 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for October 21
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05:53 EDTNovember front month equity options last day to trade is November 21, 2014
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02:30 EDTFX Update: The dollar has traded mostly softer
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01:00 EDTJapan's all-industry index dipped 0.1% in August
Japan's all-industry index dipped 0.1% in August after a revised 0.4% Decline in July (was -0.2%). Though the headline decline was less than forecast, the downward revisions leaves the data on the weaker side. Japanese stocks are sharply lower on the day, dropping 250 points to unwind most of yesterday's gains after the GPIF asset allocation news. JPY is firmer.
October 20, 2014
22:50 EDTChina's economic data alleviated growth fears.
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15:20 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: The bond market kept a cool head on Monday, allowing stocks to falter on the IBM earnings miss and reboot ahead of Apple's release after the close. No matter, Treasuries remained largely bid across the spectrum after the early sell-off after Fedspeak of a slightly hawkish tilt from Rosengren and Fisher stirred up the market early on. The ECB kicked off its covered bond purchase program, but peripheral spreads widened out and kept a safety premium in Bunds that spilled over as well. There was little on the economic docket to otherwise steer the price action today.
15:00 EDTTreasury Action: fundamentals are more relevant today
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14:25 EDTNASDAQ is getting bid up
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13:55 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY remains stuck
FX Action: USD-JPY remains stuck on the bottom of its N.Y. range, trading 106.80-107.00 virtually all session. News that Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund is rising the ratio of domestic stocks to 25% from 12% could result in fewer official yen sales in the coming months, which bigger picture, may weigh some on USD-JPY. The initial reaction overnight was a higher USD-JPY, as domestic markets rallied nearly 4%, though going forward, as retirement fund demand for dollars and euros eases, some USD-JPY support may be removed.
13:15 EDTFed Policy Outlook: the FOMC is still expected to end QE this month
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12:50 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: more put buying
Euro$ interest rate options: more put buying has been spotted, including the purchase of 10k in Green March 68 puts and a purchase of 5k in Short December 87/90/92 put butterflies. Yet underlying futures continue to hold up and build on opening gains, though stocks and longer yields continue to inch higher in afternoon trade. The December 2014 contract is still a half-tick higher of 99.76, while the deferreds are 1-4 ticks higher.
11:55 EDTU.S. dollar swap spreads have narrowed
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11:45 EDTTreasury's $54 B 3- and 6-month bill auction was solid
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11:18 EDT New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley Speech to be released at 16:30
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11:15 EDTNY Fed bought $1.135 B in short notes
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11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $34 B 4-week bill sale for Tuesday
Treasury announced a $34 B 4-week bill sale for Tuesday. It's up $1 from last week's $33 B volume, and is $4 B higher than the September 29 sale. Supply is thin this week with just the $7 B 30-year TIPS reopening, and bills, including today's $54 B 3- and 6-month offering.
11:10 EDTNY Fed bought $1.135 B in short notes
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11:00 EDTChina's heavy slate of data will help drive markets
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10:50 EDTU.S. VIX equity volatility sank 6.2%
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10:25 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: the Fed is buying $1.00 B to $1.25 B in notes
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10:00 EDTU.S. Producer Sentiment Unwinding Q3 Strength:
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09:40 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY touched intra day lows of 106.79
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09:36 EDTIBM pushes Dow sharply lower as volatility persists
Stock futures weakened during the pre-market trading session following the disappointing earnings from tech giant and Dow member IBM (IBM). The bulk of the Dow Jones Industrial Average's drop is due to IBM, shares which are heavily weighted due to its high price per share. The market continues to exhibit its extreme volatility and it will have major headwinds to overcome if it is to get back to positive ground. Investors will be trying to discern if IBM’s miss is indicative of company specific issue or a broader slowdown in tech before another giant, Apple (AAPL), reports on its results today after the closing bell. In early trading, the Dow is down 93 points, the Nasdaq is up 1 point and the S&P is down 2 points.
09:25 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: issuance is picking up a bit today
U.S. corporate bond update: issuance is picking up a bit today amid calmer market conditions. Only $7.5 B priced last week, the third lowest volume of the year to date. Constellation Brands is pricing $800 M in 5- and 10-year noncallable senior notes. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are are also on tap. The former is selling benchmark 5-year notes. The latter has a benchmark 10-year deal. KfW is marketing benchmark sized 3-year notes. There isn't much competition from the Treasury this week with just bills and a 30-year TIPS reopening on the auction block.
09:15 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: some bearish positioning
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09:00 EDTU.S. equities are starting out on the wrong foot
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08:38 EDTiShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Fund volatility flat on wide movement
iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Fund overall option implied volatility of 8 is near its 26-week average of 7 according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.
08:35 EDTFed dove Rosengren said ending QE is warranted by the improved job market
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08:35 EDTDallas Fed's Fisher speaking on CNBC via phone
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08:25 EDTCanada Wholesale Shipments Preview
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08:25 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is trading just under $93.00
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07:50 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:40 EDTFed Governor Powell will take part in a webinar
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07:40 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed
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07:32 EDTU.S. Labor Secretary speaks on the economy at a luncheon meeting
U.S. Labor Secretary Perez discusses the U.S. economy and labor situation in a speech entitled "Shared Prosperity: Building an Economy that Works for Everyone," at a National Press Club luncheon meeting being held in Washington, D.C. on October 20 at 1 pm.
07:31 EDTFederal Reserve Governor Tarullo to speak at workshop
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07:30 EDTFCC to hold a consumer advisory committee meeting
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07:28 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of New York President speaks at workshop
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07:24 EDTFutures lower to begin the week
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07:13 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a workshop
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06:09 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for October 20
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03:05 EDTFX Action: The dollar was mostly firmer
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October 18, 2014
10:27 EDTNew Home Sales to be reported at 10:00
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10:27 EDTKansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Level to be reported at 11:00
October Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Level will be reported at 11:00 . Current consensus is 6.0
10:27 EDTLeading Indicators to be reported at 10:00
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10:27 EDTPMI Manufacturing Index Flash Level to be reported at 09:45
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10:27 EDTFHFA House Price Index M/M change to be reported at 09:00
August FHFA House Price Index M/M change will be reported at 09:00 . Current consensus is 0.3% for the month
10:27 EDTConsumer Price Index CPI less food & energy to be reported at 08:30
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10:27 EDTConsumer Price Index CPI to be reported at 08:30
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10:27 EDTExisting Home Sales to be reported at 10:00
September Existing Home Sales will be reported at 10:00 . Current consensus is 5.10M
10:27 EDT Federal Reserve Gov. Jerome Powell Speech to be released at 10:00
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October 17, 2014
15:30 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: A "V-shaped" recovery on stocks signaled an all-clear on recent volatility on Friday, or not. Successive rounds of dovish Fedspeak this week proved a timely placebo for the European anxiety attack that spread across the Pond faster than Ebola in a pressurized cabin. In either case the sentiment swings this week were no laughing matter and spoke to the complacency build-up thanks to QE3, which is nearing its home stretch. Housing and sentiment data was a bit brighter to round out the week and Europe responded to asset purchase promises from the ECB and dovish BoE-speak as well, which completed the asset role-reversal.
14:45 EDTU.S. Week Ahead: consolidation could be the watch word
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13:50 EDTAction Economics Survey results:
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13:15 EDTFed QE3 nearly dead, all hail QE4:
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12:50 EDTTresury Option Action: some bullish put selling
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12:15 EDTTreasury Option Action: some more vol selling
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11:25 EDTToday's U.S. reports
Today's U.S. reports revealed headline gains for both September housing starts and October Michigan sentiment, though the 6.3% starts climb included surprising restraint in the single family and "under construction" figures that lowered prospects for the housing sector into year-end. The sentiment climb to 86.4 set a new cycle-high in October, but the Ebola-scare in the second half of the month should prompt an atypical downward revision in the final report. Today's stock market bounce marks the best news of the day going into the weekend, despite the morning's reported headline gains, and if markets continue to climb next week analysts may see less of a hit to the remaining October confidence reports.
11:20 EDTU.S. corporate bond update: it's a typically quiet session
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11:00 EDTU.S. VIX equity volatility gapped lower to 20.5
U.S. VIX equity volatility gapped lower to 20.5 down some 18% compared yesterday's 25.20 close and Wednesday's peak of 31.06, as the melt-up in equities thanks to firm data, earnings and reversal in European equities all conspire to take some starch out of the VIX again as U.S. stocks rally some 1.25-1.55%. As noted yesterday, if stocks continue to weather the global margin call, the retreat of the VIX back down to the 20.0-15.0 zone "could be as sharp as its recent rise." However, it would take a resumption of equity liquidation/liquidity trap to put 37.5 late-November 2011 level back in play, with 46.8 above.
10:25 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures are mostly lower
Euro$ interest rate futures are mostly lower extending their declines as the world's asset markets rebalance after this week's big squeeze and liquidity trap. Even as Europe cheers the ECB's inexorable slide toward asset purchases and the Fed's inevitable backing away from premature rate hikes, that keeps the "Bernanke Put" alive a little longer and a temporary floor under stocks. Conversely, that's put a lid on gains on underlying euro$ rate futures, with the December 2014 contract flat at 99.755, the December 2015 4-ticks lower at 99.22 (0.78%) and the deferreds 1-7 ticks lower out the curve. Fedspeak has retained a dovish slant, however, likely keeping a nearby floor under the futures as well.
10:25 EDTThe Michigan sentiment climb to an 86.4 new cycle-high
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10:10 EDTTreasury Action: yields popped up to session highs
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10:10 EDTFX Action: The dollar continued its advance
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10:05 EDTU.S. preliminary October consumer confidence rose to 86.4
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09:58 EDTConsumer Sentiment Index data reported
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09:46 EDTJefferies media analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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09:45 EDTU.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview
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09:34 EDTGuggenheim analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
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09:10 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD revealed little initial reaction
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09:05 EDTSeptember gains for U.S. housing starts and permits
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08:58 EDTCredit Suisse macroeconomics analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
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08:55 EDTU.S. equities snapped to attention
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08:53 EDTBofA/Merrill holds analyst/industry conference call on non-cleared margin rules
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08:50 EDTFX Action: The dollar perked up broadly
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08:50 EDTFed Chair Yellen did not comment on Fed policy or the economy
Fed Chair Yellen did not comment on Fed policy or the economy in her prepared remarks. She stuck to the conference topic of inequality, and said it is of great concern to her. Inequality is estimated to be near the highest in a century. She thinks inheritance is a significant source of economic opportunity, while the higher costs of education are a limiting factor.
08:46 EDTWeek of 10/29 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
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08:46 EDTWeek of 10/20 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
08:40 EDTU.S. housing starts rebounded 6.3% to 1.017 M pace in September
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08:33 EDTFutures continue to suggest sharply higher open
Stock futures continue to suggest a sharply higher open for the broader market. The housing starts and building permits reports for September showed increases of 6.3% and 1.5% respectively, versus expectations for starts to be up 5.4% and permits to rise 2.7%.
08:31 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold an energy analyst/industry conference call
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08:27 EDTBofA/Merrill retail analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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08:25 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude rallied to $84.45
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08:15 EDTU.S. Housing Starts Preview
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08:00 EDTBoston Fed's Rosengren said it's too soon to make an adjustment on QE
Boston Fed's Rosengren said it's too soon to make an adjustment on QE plans, in comments from a CNBC interview. But he acknowledged that QE4 could be considered if the economy gets weak. However, it's premature to make judgments on the market turbulence. Though Europe faces significant problems, the fundamental outlook hasn't really changed. And so far, there hasn't been enough of a shift in U.S. data to alter views either. So he still believes the first rate hike should be seen in 2015. Rosengren is one of the most dovish on the FOMC, but it doesn't appear that he is on board with more stimulus yet.
07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries and other core sovereigns are lower
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07:45 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:40 EDTFX Update: The dollar majors settled
FX Update: The dollar majors settled after a volatile week while European and most Asian stock markets managed to recoup some of the ground lost this week. EUR-USD oscillated in a narrow range around 1.2800. USD-JPY lifted to the 106.50 area, achieving a two-day high and managing to climb above its 50-day moving average situated at 106.22. Generally firmer equity markets was conducive for the yen to give back some of its recent gains, although Japanese markets were the notable exception today with the Nikkei closing 1.4% for the worse. AUD-USD posted at 0.8734-0.8791 range, remaining comfortably within yesterday's range. Cable edged out a four-day high at 1.6117 but failed to sustain gains. BoE chief economist Haldane said in a speech that "rates could remain lower for longer." An accidental re-release of the RBNZ's September statement caused only a brief stir as it generated rehashed headlines about the Kiwi being to strong. NZD-USD dove over 50 pips to a low of 0.7878 before rebounding smartly to near net unchanged levels once the error became understood.
07:30 EDTFedspeak resumes with remarks from Chairwoman Yellen
Fedspeak resumes with remarks from Chairwoman Yellen who will be speaking before an "Inequality of Economic Opportunity in the U.S." conference from 8:30 ET. This seems an unlikely venue for any major policy hints, though the topic could lend itself to confirming her dovish views on the labor market. Her speech will follow welcoming remarks from Boston Fed dove Rosengren.
07:10 EDTFuture suggest big upside at market open
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07:04 EDTFCC to hold an open commission meeting
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07:03 EDTFederal Reserve Chairperson Yellen to speak at conference
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07:01 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of Boston President Rosengren provides opening remarks
Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Rosengren provides the opening remarks at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston's 58th Economic Conference: Inequality of Economic Opportunity being held in Boston on October 17 at 8:30 am.
07:01 EDTJMP Securities to hold a conference
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06:00 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for October 17
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05:52 EDTOctober front month equity options last day to trade is today, October 17, 2014
October 16, 2014
16:09 EDTTreasury International Capital Foreign Demand for Long-Term U.S. Securities data reported
August Treasury International Capital Foreign Demand for Long-Term U.S. Securities at $74.5B
16:09 EDTWeek of 10/24 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 10:30
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15:12 EDTJMP Securities to hold a conference
Life Sciences Private Company Conference is being held in New York on October 17.
15:11 EDTJPMorgan to hold a forum
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15:07 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of Boston to hold a conference
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15:05 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: The bond market continued on Thursday to unwind the bulk of its convulsive rally from the day prior after the global margin call took a breather and Wall Street recovered some poise after Europe slashed its losses in half into their close. Data was more mixed that commentators led the viewers to believe, however, after a 23k drop in jobless claims and 1% gain in industrial production was met with pullbacks in the Philly Fed and NAHB housing indices. But the swing factor was dovish Fedspeak from Lockhart, Kocherlakota and Bullard, who hinted at a resumption of QE if things did not go according to plan. Moreover, relenting of the equity liquidation and rebound in oil prices helped put a floor under yields.
14:55 EDTCanada CPI Preview
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14:49 EDTPiper Jaffray healthcare analyst to hold an analyst/industry conference call
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14:40 EDTU.S. TIC inflows preview:
U.S. TIC inflows preview: Treasury International Capital inflows are forecast to increase by $30.0 B in August from a $57.7 B inflow in July. For more detail, see the TIC website.
14:15 EDTFed Chair Yellen did not comment on the economy or policy
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13:50 EDTU.S. VIX equity volatility retreated to a base near 25.0
U.S. VIX equity volatility retreated to a base near 25.0 compared to Wednesday's peak of 31.06, but is finding some traction ahead of yesterday's 24.73 lows, even as stocks continue to ride the "Bullard put" higher. If stocks continue to weather the global margin call, the retreat of the VIX back down to the 20.0-15.0 zone could be as sharp as its recent rise. However, a resumption of equity liquidation could put 37.5 late-November 2011 level back in play, with 46.8 above.
13:30 EDTU.S. Housing Starts Preview
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12:45 EDTU.S. dollar swap spreads widened back
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12:44 EDTWeek of 10/25 Jobless Claims to be released at 08:30
12:30 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY got a boost
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12:25 EDTFed Policy Outlook: analysts don't expect the FOMC to delay the end of QE
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11:50 EDTU.S. equities have forged back into the green
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11:35 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD has been on the decline
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11:15 EDTNY Fed bought $0.188 B in Treasuries
NY Fed bought $0.188 B in Treasuries dated from February 15, 2025 through August 15, 2028. The Street offered $2.09 B. The small buyback is having little effect on the market. Indeed, Treasury gains have been erased as stocks pare their losses. The rebound on Wall Street was in part motivated by Fed dove Bullard's comment that delaying the end of QE should be considered.
11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $7 B 30-year TIPS reopening for Thursday
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11:05 EDTTreasury Action: yields are backing higher again
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11:00 EDTCrude Inventories for the week of October 10
Crude oil inventories 8.92M build vs. consensus of 2.45M build. Gasoline inventories 4.0M draw vs. consensus of 1.7M draw. Distillates 1.52M draw vs. consensus of 1.8M draw.
10:55 EDTMore Ebola news: a Yale-New Haven Hospital case
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10:35 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: some bearish positioning
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10:35 EDTFed dove Bullard said the Fed should consider delaying the end of QE
Fed dove Bullard said the Fed should consider delaying the end of QE, in his comments from a Bloomberg Radio interview. Though U.S. fundamentals remain strong, he thinks much of the current market turmoil results from downgrades to the outlook for Europe. He said the path of bond purchases should also be data dependent, and would tie it to inflation expectations. Like his colleague Kocherlakota, he's concerned at the lack of progress on attaining the 2% target. Of course the program is expected to end with this month's FOMC meeting.
10:30 EDTEIA Natural Gas Storage Change for the week ending October 10
Gas inventories 94 Bcf build vs. consensus of 91 Bcf build.
10:25 EDTFed's Bullard tells Bloomberg delay in QE end should be considered
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10:15 EDTU.S. NAHB homebuilder sentiment index fell 5 points to 54 in October
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10:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar inched slightly lower
FX Action: The dollar inched slightly lower on the back of the about as-expected Philly Fed index, though softer NAHB home price index. USD-JPY remains just above 106.00, while EUR-USD is stuck near 1.2650. Wall Street is well above its worst levels, as are yields.
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields continued to migrate higher
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10:11 EDTPhiladelphia Fed Survey General Business Conditions Index data reported
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10:11 EDTHousing Market Index data reported
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10:10 EDTU.S. Philly Fed manufacturing index fell 1.8 points to 20.7 in October
U.S. Philly Fed manufacturing index fell 1.8 points to 20.7 in October after falling 5.5 points to 22.5 in September. The employment component dropped to 12.1 from 21.2. The workweek slide to -1.3 from 4.4. New orders improved to 17.3 from 15.5. Price paid were little changed at 27.6 from 27.0, but prices received jumped sharply to 20.8 from 8.8. The 6-month general business activity index dipped to 54.5 from 56.0. The 6-month employment component declined to 28.0 from 39.6, with capital expenditures falling to 18.9 from 23.7, and prices paid at 32.9 from 46.2.
10:00 EDTU.S. Philadelphia Fed Index Preview
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10:00 EDTU.S. NAHB housing market index preview:
U.S. NAHB housing market index preview: the NAHB HMI is forecast to hold steady at 59 in October after home builder confidence posted a 4-point gain in September to the highest level since November 2005. For more, see the NAHB website.
09:55 EDTAero Club of Washington, D.C. holds a luncheon meeting with FAA Head
Michael Huerta, head of the Federal Aviation Administration, delivers remarks on the need for airlines and other industry players to coalesce behind a plan for the agency’s future as Congress prepares to reauthorize it in 2015 at a Luncheon Meeting being held in Washington, D.C. on October 16 at 12 pm with webcasted remarks at 1:10 pm. Webcast Link
09:50 EDTThe 1.0% September U.S. industrial production pop beat estimates
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09:48 EDTBloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Level data reported
Week of 10/12 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Level at 36.2
09:38 EDTMarket extends recent slide with steep drop at open
Stock futures indicated a sharply lower open and the broader market followed through accordingly at the bell. Less than stellar earnings from some of the country’s largest corporations and other in-focus "momentum" names added to the ongoing weakness that has been prompted by pessimism over global growth, sliding oil prices and the Ebola scare. The S&P 500 has once again moved into negative ground year-to-date and the market may re-test yesterday’s lows. In early trading, the Dow is down 113 points, the Nasdaq is down 43 points and the S&P is down 17 points.
09:25 EDTU.S. industrial production rebounded 1.0% in September
U.S. industrial production rebounded 1.0% in September after dipping 0.2% in August (revised from -0.1%). That pushed capacity utilization up to 79.3% versus 78.7% previously (revised from 78.8%), the highest since mid 2008. Manufacturing production increased 0.5%, reversing the 0.5% August drop (revised from 0.4%). Motor vehicle and parts increased extended declines, however, falling 1.4% following the 7.0% drop previously (was -7.6%). Excluding autos, production surged 1.1%. Computer production remained hot, rising 0.8% after a 1.0% August surge (revised from 1.3%). Machinery production dipped 0.1%. Utilities climbed 3.9%, while mining was up 1.8%.
09:20 EDTAtlanta Fed dove Lockhart: the labor market is far from normal
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09:20 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD topped out at 1.1361
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09:11 EDTPiper Jaffray biotech/specialty pharma analysts analyst/industry conference call
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09:05 EDTMore from Plosser:
More from Plosser: he acknowledged that the recent focus has been on outside the U.S., with weakness in Europe, in answering audience questions. But he doesn't believe that it's sufficient to derail the U.S. economy. Labor markets are changing in a fundamental way, he suspects, though he has no idea what "full employment" looks like. Fed policy can't fix the economy's short term issues, but works over the long run. The stronger dollar is affecting oil prices, and the net effect of the resulting price drop is a positive.
09:05 EDTU.S. equities are slumping again
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08:55 EDTU.S. Industrial Production Preview
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08:50 EDTThe 23k U.S. initial claims plunge to a new cycle-low 264k
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields backed up into the claims report
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar moved marginally higher
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08:40 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims dropped 23k to 264k in the week ended October 11
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08:33 EDTFutures suggest another market plunge
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08:32 EDTCBOE S&P 500 Skew Index low at 111.31
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08:20 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims preview:
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08:15 EDTFed's Plosser remains optimistic on the economy
Fed's Plosser remains optimistic on the economy and cautioned the markets to prepare for a sooner than expected rate increase. He is still forecasting about 3% growth for the second half of the year. Of course he is one of the most hawkish on the FOMC, so these are not new sentiments. He's not suggesting a rate hike yet, however. But being "data dependent" means that policy needs to begin changing, and adjusting forward guidance would be an appropriate first step.
07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds are off to the races again
Treasury Market Outlook: bonds are off to the races again as the rout in equities continues. Flight to safety has knocked the 10-year Treasury yield back down another 15 bps to hit 1.97% before it edged back up to the 2.0% level. The German Bund traded as low as 0.71%, while Japan's 10-year JGB tested 0.46%. However, peripheral bonds in Europe are being punished and spreads are widening sharply amid worries over Greece ability to exit the bailout. Stocks are sharply lower again as growth and Ebola fears grip investors. Oil prices continue to weaken. Overnight data saw China M2 rising, and the Eurozone trade surplus widening. Today's U.S. reports on September industrial production, the October Philly Fed index, August Treasury capital flows (TIC report) and weekly initial jobless claims will be closely monitored for what they imply on growth and market flows. There is a host of Fedspeak today from hawks and doves, including Plosser, Lockhart, Kocherlakota, and Bullard. Fed Chair Yellen makes a public appearance, but she doesn't have a speech and there will be no media Q&A. Treasury announces details a its 30-year TIPS reopening and weekly bill sales. There are earnings announcements from Goldman Sachs, Google, AMD, Blackstone, Delta, Mattel, Philip Morris, UnitedHealth, and SanDisk.
07:40 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude traded on the $79 handle
Oil Action: NYMEX crude traded on the $79 handle for the first time in four-years, down nearly $2/bbl from Wednesday's close to a low of $78.78. The usual culprits are behind the latest move, with growth fears, and what some are calling an over-supplied market continuing to drive prices lower.
07:39 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Bank President speaks on monetary policy
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07:36 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Bullard provides keynote
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07:32 EDTPresident George of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City speaks
Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President George speaks at the Transforming U.S. Workforce Development Policies for 21st Century Conference being held in New Brunswick, NJ on October 16 at 12:15 pm.
07:30 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President speaks at conference
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07:30 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:29 EDTFederal Reserve Bank President of Philadelphia speaks on economic policy
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07:25 EDTMarkets Media to hold a summit
The Global Markets Summit is being held in London, England on October 16.
07:24 EDTNYSSA to hold a conference
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07:24 EDTCredit Suisse to hold a conference
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07:20 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a conference
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07:19 EDTBloomberg Link to hold a summit
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07:19 EDTHoulihan Lokey to hold a conference
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07:05 EDTFX Update: The dollar rebounded
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07:03 EDTEuropean Food & Ankle Society to hold a conference
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06:55 EDTFX Update: The dollar rebounded
FX Update: The dollar rebounded as the market turned to the U.S. currency in an risk averse environment as European stocks turned sharply lower. News that Spain's auction of 10-year paper fell short of target was both a symptom and a risk-off catalyst, while the Ebola outbreak is inviting comparisons in the media to the economically disruptive 2003 SARS outbreak in Asia. EUR-USD dove to the low 1.27s from levels around 1.2800. USD-JPY dropped back to the mid-105s from levels above 106. Not surprisingly, the AUD underperformed, briefly breaching 0.8700 versus the USD and declining to a five-month low against the EUR.
06:01 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for October 16
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05:53 EDTOctober front month equity options last day to trade is October 17, 2014
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02:25 EDTFX Update: The dollar has consolidated Wednesday's losses
FX Update: The dollar has consolidated Wednesday's losses seen after soggy U.S. PPI and retail sales data. Asian stocks continued to tumble, and another risk-off day looks likely in Europe amid fears about Ebola, which is inviting comparisons to the economically disruptive SARS outbreak in Asia in 2003. This backdrop may curtail dollar losses. EUR-USD has trod a narrow range in the low 1.28s before dipping below here in early London trade, putting yesterday's three-week peak at 1.2886 out of scope. USD-JPY has posted a narrow range in the low 106s, near to the New York closing level and some way above yesterday's five-week low at 105.19. BoJ policymaker Iwata said that monetary easing is working.
October 15, 2014
23:00 EDTChina reported foreign direct investment rose to $9 B in September,
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20:55 EDTAsian shares are catching down
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16:30 EDTEBay earnings popped out after the close
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15:50 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: The asset markets turned convulsive again on Wednesday as the wall of worry just got too top heavy and tipped over on investors below. This collided with fresh information that the cleanest dirty shirt in the global economy -- the U.S. -- actually did need to be tossed in the laundry with rest. GDP forecasts were downgraded by Action and others following a Trifecta of damp readings on retail sales, Empire State and PPI. The sole bright spot was a bounce in MBA refis, while stocks wrestled with the bad news, including the spread of Ebola in Spain and Dallas, a Greek meltdown and the potential dissolution of a $50 B US-UK merger over tax dis-inversion changes. A high volume plunge on European stocks was followed by Wall Street and accompanied by significant break lower in bond yields.
15:40 EDTDallas Fed's Fisher said it's premature to talk about another round of QE
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15:22 EDTProShares Ultra DJ-UBS Crude Oil volatility increases, oil near four-year low
ProShares Ultra DJ-UBS Crude Oil October call option implied volatility is at 83, November is at 66, January is at 57; compared to its 26-week average of 34 according to Track Data, suggesting large price movement.
15:00 EDTU.S. weekly jobless claims preview:
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14:33 EDTWeek of 10/24 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30
14:15 EDTFed's Beige Book reiterated "modest" to "moderate" growth
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14:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields are consolidating above spike lows
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14:14 EDTFed says recent economic growth 'modest to moderate'
Economic growth was "modest to moderate" in 11 of the 12 Fed's districts recently, the central bank reported in its Beige Book today. Consumer spending rose at a slight to moderate pace in most areas, the central bank stated. Several districts said that retailers were "relatively optimistic" about the outlook for the rest of the year. Manufacturing grew in most areas, but residential construction and real estate activity were mixed, the Fed reported. Commercial construction and commercial loan volumes expanded in most districts, but consumer loan demand was mixed and refinancing activity was low or reduced in some areas, the Fed said. The pace of job growth was little changed compared to prior months, and some employers had difficulty finding qualified workers for certain positions. Nonetheless pricing pressures remained subdued, the Fed stated.
14:10 EDTFX Action: Not much FX market reaction
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14:03 EDTPiper Jaffray's medtech analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Analysts, along with senior strategist/technical analyst Craig Johnson focus on the MedTech covered universe ahead of 3Q14 results on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on October 15 at 2 pm.
14:01 EDTFed Beige Book shows 'modest to moderate' economic growth
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13:50 EDTU.S. dollar swap spreads rebounded from narrows
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13:35 EDTFed Beige Book preview:
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13:30 EDTU.S. CDC update: the 2nd Ebola nurse
U.S. CDC update: the 2nd Ebola nurse will be transferred to Emory after falling ill with Ebola, but is clinically stable. Both nurses had extensive contact with now deceased patient Duncan during his most infectious stage and the second nurse should not have traveled on a commercial flight. Three other contacts are being checked before she went in isolation. The CDC speculates that the Texas staff may have put on "too many layers of protective apparel" in the early days of Duncan's treatment (either something is being lost in translation on this last bit or the CDC has no idea what they're doing). Markets have resumed their decent as the wall of worry on Greece, Ebola, M&A, deflation and global growth comes home to roost.
12:30 EDTFX Action: The dollar stabilized
FX Action: The dollar stabilized into the London close, with the greenback generally near mid-session ranges versus major currencies. EUR-USD appears to be a bit strained near 1.2800, though USD-JPY struggled over the 106.00 mark, as equities move back toward session lows. Another Wall Street break lower could see USD-JPY test earlier 105.20 lows, with the 105,00 the next target.
11:52 EDTWeek of 10/24 MBA Purchase Applications to be released at 07:00
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11:50 EDTTreasury's bill auction results were ok
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11:50 EDTEuropean equities continued to plunge into their close
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11:45 EDTWeakness in today's U.S. economic reports
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11:30 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: Fed bought $1.036 B in notes
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11:30 EDTSecond Dallas Ebola nurse had traveled by air
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11:15 EDTU.S. Treasury posted a $105.8 B budget surplus in September
U.S. Treasury posted a $105.8 B budget surplus in September, a 40.9% y/y improvement compared to the $75.1 B print for last year. Receipts climbed 16.7% y/y, while outlays rose 8.6% y/y. The fiscal year deficit came in at $483.4 B, a 28.9% y/y improvement compared to the $680.2 B red ink amount for fiscal 2013.
11:00 EDTFresh Ebola rumors hit markets that the Barcelona Airport
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10:55 EDTTreasury Action: the 34 bp drop in the 10-year yield to 1.86% earlier
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10:40 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD is back up
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10:35 EDTThe 0.2% August U.S. business inventory rise undershot estimates
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10:35 EDTU.S. VIX equity volatility reversed to session lows of 24.64
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10:25 EDTFed policy outlook:
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10:15 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY crashed to 105.20 lows
FX Action: USD-JPY crashed to 105.20 lows, after opening near 107.00, levels last seen on September 8. The pairing has bounced back over 106.30 since. Initial support comes in at 105.00 now, though another downdraft on Wall Street will be needed to test that level. Stocks remains sharply lower, though have managed to claw back better than half of their early sharp losses.
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields snapped back from lows
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10:10 EDTU.S. business inventories rose 0.2% in August, with sales down 0.4%
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10:05 EDTWholesale Fed repricing in euro$ interest rate futures
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09:55 EDTU.S. business inventories preview:
U.S. business inventories preview: August business inventories are expected to grow 0.3%, with shipments down 0.1%. The recent high for inventory growth was 1.4% in March '11 and the low was -2.1% in December '08. Data in-line with our forecast would leave the I/S ratio steady at 1.29 for a sixth month. report.
09:45 EDTThe 0.3% retail sales drop with a 0.2% ex-auto decline
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09:44 EDTMarket opens sharply lower, S&P erases year-to-date gains
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09:37 EDTCFA Society of Pittsburgh to hold October luncheon meeting
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09:35 EDTBond gurus blink: Fink of Blackrock
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09:15 EDTThe Empire State sentiment plunge to 6.17
The Empire State sentiment plunge to 6.17 in October more than reversed the September pop to a 27.54 five-year high from 14.69 in August, versus a 0.83 six-month low last November. The ISM-adjusted Empire State measure fell more modestly, to 50.1 from 53.4 in September and 52.9 in August, versus a 55.3 four-year high in June that was also seen in May of 2012, and a 46.6 three-year low in both December and June of 2013. Today's October Empire drop leads an expected Q4 moderation in the vehicle assembly rate after a big Q3 pop. Analysts expect an October Philly Fed drop to 18.0 from 22.5, a Richmond Fed drop to 9.0 from 14.0, a Dallas Fed up-tick to 11.0 from 10.8, an ISM down-tick to 56.5 from 56.6, and an ISM-NMI decline to 57.0 from 58.6. The mix should allow the ISM-adjusted average to fall to 54 in October from a 56 cycle-high through Q3 that was also seen in February and March of 2011, versus the same 54 through Q2, 52 through Q1, and a 53 average in Q3 and Q4 of 2013.
09:10 EDTThe 0.1% U.S. September PPI drop
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09:05 EDTU.S. equities are significantly lower
U.S. equities are significantly lower and have compounded losses after the trifecta of damp retail, PPI and Empire data returns. Another round of heavy losses in Europe set the early tone on Wall Street with the Dow 157-points lower, S&P off 24-points and NASDAQ down 45-points ahead of the opening gong. The "weakest link" prior to the data was the 27% plunge in Shire shares of the UK, which suffered after AbbVie (-4%) of the U.S. warned it might drop its $51 B merger with the company after inversion tax law changes. The Euro Stoxx 50 is off 2%, while the Italian MIB is 2.9% lower after Italy joined France in challenging EU budget guidelines. Blackrock climbed 1.5% after an earnings beat and BofA also gained 0.5% after posting a Q3 profit despite a $16.7 B mortgage settlement. AMEX and EBay are due after the close. Business inventories and the Fed Beige Book are also on deck.
08:55 EDTSPDR S&P Oil and Gas Exploration and Production ETF volatility elevated at 53
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08:50 EDTFX Action: The dollar fell after the mix of data
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08:50 EDTU.S. PPI posted a 0.1% decline, with the core rate unchanged
U.S. PPI posted a 0.1% decline, with the core rate unchanged, both below forecasts. There were no revisions to the unchanged headline reading for August, and the 0.1% core. Goods prices were down 0.2% after slipping 0.3% previously, with foods prices off 0.7% and energy down 0.7%, compared to respective declines of 0.5% and 1.5% in August. Services prices dipped 0.1% versus a 0.3% August gain. This is yet another soft report for a trifecta today.
08:45 EDTU.S. Empire State manufacturing index fell 21.4 points to 6.2 in October
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields rolled over to fresh lows
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08:40 EDTU.S. retail sales fell 0.3% in September, and slipped 0.2% excluding autos
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08:36 EDTFutures sink following release of several economic data points
Stock futures fell following the release of several economic data points. The Empire Manufacturing Index had a reading of 6.17 versus expectations of 20.25. An advance retail sales index was down 0.3% versus expectations of a decline of 0.1%. while the core reading which excludes autos and gasoline showed a decline of 0.1% versus expectations of an increase of 0.4%. Producer prices fell 0.1%during September versus expectations of an increase of 0.1%. The core producer prices reading which excludes food and energy was unchanged versus expectations of an increase of 0.1%.
08:20 EDTU.S. retail sales preview:
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08:20 EDTU.S. PPI Preview:
U.S. PPI Preview: September overall-PPI is expected to remain flat (median 0.1%) with a 0.1% core index figure (median 0.1%). The flat U.S. August PPI figure with a 0.1% core price increase was exactly as expected, with a 0.3% drop in goods prices that reflected a 1.5% energy price decline and a smaller 0.3% drop for food prices, alongside a 0.3% price increase for services. The September trade price report revealed the expected headline hit from falling petroleum import and food export prices, as seen in both July and August
08:20 EDTU.S. Empire State index preview:
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08:10 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD touched five-year highs
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07:55 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude slid to new trend lows
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07:46 EDTCFA Society of Washington, D.C. to hold a discussion
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07:45 EDTBloomberg Government to hold a webinar
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07:45 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index rose 5.6%
U.S. MBA mortgage market index rose 5.6% in data released earlier, accompanied by a 0.7% drop in the purchase index and a 10.6% surge in the refinancing index for the week ended October 10. The overall market index gain was fueled mainly by the rekindling of refi activity after a 10 basis point drop in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to lows of 4.20%, as slowing of European growth to a crawl and finally a modest correction on stocks sent the bond market back into ascendance again. As the MBA itself noted: "Growing concerns about weak economic growth in Europe caused a flight to quality into U.S. assets last week, leading to sharp drops in interest rates." At least this has helped provide the Fed some cover for domestic growth as it brings QE3 to a close this month before mulling just when to embark on the tightening cycle.
07:43 EDTThe FDA and BARDA to hold a workshop
The FDA and Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) discusses U.S. Government medical countermeasure requirements in chemical, biological, radiological threats in a workshop being held in Washington, D.C. on October 15-17.
07:40 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar was fairly steady versus the euro overnight, despite the steady stream of weak EU data. The market remains net short of euros overall, and further consolidation may be in the cards before further downside EUR-USD potential can be seen. Elsewhere, USD-JPY struggles over 107.00, as the soft risk backdrop supports the yen. USD-CAD meanwhile, is on new trend highs over 1.1375, after blowing out the 2014 high of 1.1278. The move comes ass oil prices continue to tank, with NYMEX oil trading on the $81/bbl handle. The U.S. calendar reveals September retail sales, September PPI, and the October Empire State index, all at 8:30 EDT, followed by August business inventories at 10:00 EDT.
07:34 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of Atlanta to hold a conference
Transforming U.S. Workforce Development Policies for 21st Century Conference is being held in New Brunswick, New Jersey on October 15-16.
07:28 EDTUBM Canon to hold a conference
Design & Manufacturing Midwest Conference is being held in Chicago on October 15-16.
07:26 EDTFutures lower in early trading
U.S. equity futures are trading lower as the market slide appears ready to continue. Several pieces of economic data due to be released today could influence investors. The data likely to be released today include reports on manufacturing, retail sales, producer prices, and business and energy inventories. Investors will also have to contend with the continuing downturn in oil prices, as crude prices are dropping again today.
07:25 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are modestly higher
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are modestly higher, in conjunction with gains in core sovereign bonds overseas, as stocks weaken amid a worrisome global outlook. Yields did edge higher in Asian trading as regional equities rallied, but losses in European bourses and U.S. equity futures have given Treasuries and European bonds a lift. German Bunds are leading the rally with the rate down to a new record low at 0.809%. The 10-yeaer Treasury yield has fallen to 2.18% from 2.22% in Tokyo action. Germany again sold its 2-year Schatz with a negative yield (-0.06%). There wasn't a lot of data overnight, but today's U.S. calendar is loaded and includes September retail sales, the October Empire State manufacturing index, and September PPI on tap, along with August business inventories. The MBA reported mortgage applications susrged 5.6% in the week ended October 10. The Fed's Beige Book for the October 28, 29 FOMC is also due today and should again say growth is moderate to modest. The NY Fed will buy $0.95 B to$1.15 B in notes dated from October 2018 through June 2019. Earnings announcements will be heard from Bank of America, American Express, BlackRock, eBay, Netflix, and Briggs & Stratton.
07:23 EDTOrthopedic Trauma Association to hold annual meeting
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07:05 EDTFX Update: The dollar oscillated
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07:03 EDTMBA Purchase Applications Composite Index data reported
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06:30 EDTU.K. unemployment rate hits six year low, AP says
The U.K.'s unemployment rate dropped to 6% between June and August, down from 6.4% during the prior three months, according to the Associated Press. The unemployment rate was the country's lowest since 2008, the news service stated. Reference Link
05:56 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for October 15
Globex S&P futures are recently down 2.30 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 0.92%, DAX down 0.74%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $81.01, natural gas up 1%, gold at $1223 an ounce, and copper down 0.78%.
05:50 EDTOctober front month equity options last day to trade is October 17, 2014
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05:25 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has sank back to the low 107s
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02:25 EDTFX Update: The dollar extended gains
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October 14, 2014
17:08 EDT.
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17:08 EDTWeek of 10/25 Redbook to be released at 08:55
17:08 EDTWeek of 10/25 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales to be released at 07:45
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15:30 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: Yields malingered above 16-month lows as the stock market made a valiant attempt to claw back from recent market strains as volatility leapt from metals to FX to equities of late. Europe recovered from another bout of economic misses just in time for Wall Street to benefit from short-covering gains following recent turbulence. There were various speculative reports on the Fed's tightening path and "considerable time" reference from the WSJ and a NY think tank, along with remarks from dove Williams that in the unlikely event of a drop in inflation this could trigger more bond buys. But with economic downgrades spreading, a China rate cut and plunging oil, markets were mainly fixated on global growth.
15:25 EDTU.S. PPI Preview:
U.S. PPI Preview: The September overall-PPI, due out tomorrow, is expected to remain flat (median 0.1%) with a 0.1% core index figure (median 0.1%). The flat U.S. August PPI figure with a 0.1% core price increase was exactly as expected, with a 0.3% drop in goods prices that reflected a 1.5% energy price decline and a smaller 0.3% drop for food prices, alongside a 0.3% price increase for services. The September trade price report revealed the expected headline hit from falling petroleum import and food export prices, as seen in both July and August
14:41 EDTTeucrium Corn Fund volatility low as corn rallies from 15-month low
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14:15 EDTRenewed requests to hike the Fed discount rate to 1%
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13:50 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD matched the September 6 high
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13:45 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: mostly bullish activity
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12:55 EDTSF Fed's dove Williams added his two cents to the "considerable time"
SF Fed's dove Williams added his two cents to the "considerable time" debate earlier, reportedly saying there was no change in his mind about the mid-2015 liftoff projection despite concerns about global growth. Cited in a Reuters interview, he found that "considerable time" remained an accurate description, and its removal risked market backlash. While he thought that Fed policy expectations were fundamentally accurate, he would consider further asset purchases if the inflation outlook started to fall, though not expected. He was also concerned that the ECB response to stagnation won't be fast or aggressive enough. Overall, status quo on the rate horizon and "considerable time" retention, similar to the NY think tank report cited earlier.
11:55 EDTTreasury's $5 B 3- and 6-month bill auction was solid on flight to quality
Treasury's $5 B 3- and 6-month bill auction was solid on flight to quality trades. The $24 B 3-month bill priced strong at 0.010%, through the 0.015% at the bid deadline, and last week's 0.015%. There were over $103.5 B bids for a 4.33 cover. However, that's down from last week's 5.05 and the 4.67 average. Indirect bidders took 19.5%, close to last week's 20.1% and the 22.7% average. The upsized $27 B 6-week bill stopped at 0.04%, also through the 0.045% at the bid deadline. Bids totaled over $115.9 B for a 4.32 cover, which was also below last week's 4.32 and the 4.77 average. Indiret bidders took a hefty 41.0%, well up on the 32.9% from last week as well as the 31.8% average. In fact it's the highest since mid August.
11:30 EDTTreasury Option Action: bullish put selling
Treasury Option Action: bullish put selling included the sale of 14k in December 124 puts on 10-year futures, thought to be covered at 127-13 with a 6 delta, compared to 127-11 on the underlying December 10s, which have ranged from 127-235 to 127-00 so far.
11:20 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD peaked at 1.1258
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11:15 EDTNY Fed bought $931 M in bonds
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11:15 EDTRumors of a NY think tank report on the Fed are circulating
Rumors of a NY think tank report on the Fed are circulating, reportedly offering some debate over the present situation and suggesting that the catch phrase "considerable time" will remain in the FOMC statement at the end of the month, though the Fed isn't as collectively concerned about recent dollar strength as some doves might have led us to believe. From the "for what it's worth file", since yields remain near lows and stocks are attempting to dig in their heels to avoid a deeper correction.
11:10 EDTTreasury announced a $33 B 4-week bill sale for Wednesday
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11:05 EDTThe VIX equity volatility index sank 4.5% to 23.50
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10:40 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY made its way to 107.17 highs
FX Action: USD-JPY made its way to 107.17 highs, up from an earlier base of 106.67. As yields remain in the tank, and Wall Street comes off its best levels though, the pairing is back under 107.00. Dollar-yen has posted lower daily lows in five of the last six sessions, and a move under 106.60 is expected to result in a test of 106.00, levels last seen on September 9.
10:37 EDTWallachBeth Capital biotech analyst holds analyst/industry conference call
Biotech Analyst Bob Ai discusses investing in the future of treatment of hemophilia on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on October 17 at 1 pm.
10:25 EDTNY Fed outright purchase: Fed is buying $0.85 B to $1.05 B in bonds
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10:20 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is down 61 cents at $84.36
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10:10 EDTTreasury Action: yields edged up from lows
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09:55 EDTDownside Risks Abound for September Retail Sales:
Downside Risks Abound for September Retail Sales: Analysts expect a weak round of September retail sales figures, with a flat headline and a 0.2% ex-auto drop. The release faces downside risk from declines in vehicle sales, construction hours-worked, gasoline prices, and stock prices, alongside a sideways trend in chain store sales on the month.
09:45 EDTTreasury Option Action: bearish call selling
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09:40 EDTTreasury Action: yields are sharply lower amid global risk-off trades
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09:39 EDTMarket bounces at open, Nasdaq up 1% in early trade
Stock futures improved slightly during the pre-market trading session, thanks in part better than expected earnings from Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Citigroup (C ), solid earnings from Wells Fargo (WFC) and a return to profitability by JP Morgan (JPM). The earnings results from several corporate bellwethers may have provided optimism over the upcoming earnings season. The futures action has led to a positive open but the question will be if the market can hold its gains, which it has been unable to do in recent sessions. In early trading, the Dow is up 108 points, the Nasdaq is up 45 points and the S&P is up 15 points.
09:38 EDTThe Cato Institute holds a discussion
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09:29 EDTJefferies farm equipment analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
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09:22 EDTUBS paper and forest products analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
Analysts provide a 3Q14 earnings and sector outlook on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on October 14 at 10 am.
09:20 EDTDespite mixed risks, Fed rate timing hasn't shifted much
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09:17 EDTThe Brookings Institution to hold a discussion
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08:57 EDTRedbook Store Sales data reported
Week of 10/11 Redbook Store Sales up 3.8% for the year
08:45 EDTU.S. equities are moderately firmer
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08:00 EDTU.S. ICSC Goldman Sachs chain store sales index dropped 0.7%
U.S. ICSC Goldman Sachs chain store sales index dropped 0.7% in the week ended October 11 after edging up 0.1% in the prior week. Compared to last year, the index slowed to a 3.8% y/y clip from 3.9% y/y previously. October sales are projected at a 3.5% y/y to 4.0% y/y. Sales were good at apparel stores and wholesalers. Lower gas prices have been supportive.
07:48 EDTCBOE VIX futures October at 22.1, February at 19.85, VIX at 24.64
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07:47 EDTICSC-Goldman Store Sales data reported
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07:40 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are sharply higher on flight to quality
Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are sharply higher on flight to quality flows as the market reopens from yesterday's holiday where the Dow plunged another 223 points.. The 10-year yield is down almost 9 bps to 2.191%, a fresh year-to-day low (and the lowest since June 2013). Many global sovereigns have fallen to all-time lows with the German Bund at 0.84%. Adding to investor worries were weak data in Europe with a drop in the German ZEW confidence index, a fall in Eurozone industrial production fell 1.8%and weaker than expected U.K. inflation. Also, the PBoC cut its cash repo rate to 3.4% from 3.5%. There's not a lot on today's calendar, with just weekly chain store sales due, and possibly the Treasury budget for September.
07:36 EDTMarket damage will be hard to fix
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07:35 EDTWeek Ahead: The Never Ending Story?
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07:33 EDTNFIB Small Business Optimism Index level data reported
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07:26 EDTBrookings to host a forum
Brookings’s Initiative on Business and Public Policy holds a forum focusing on lessons about insurance from the financial crisis and how regulatory reforms are changing the industry and its supervision and will be held on October 14 at 1:30 pm. Webcast Link
07:14 EDTBarron's to hold a webinar
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06:25 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for October 14
Globex S&P futures are recently up 0.60 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 down 2.38%, DAX down 0.62%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $84.77, natural gas up 0.23%, gold at $1223 an ounce, and copper up 0.49%.
05:55 EDTOctober front month equity options last day to trade is October 17, 2014
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05:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar has recovered on weak European data
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02:20 EDTFX Update: The dollar dropped quiet sharply in early Asia
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October 13, 2014
15:34 EDTiPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures are recently up 2.58 to 38.14
14:22 EDT Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren Speech to be released at 08:30
14:22 EDT Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Speech to be released at 08:35
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14:22 EDT Atlanta Federal Reserve President Dennis Lockhart Speech to be released at 12:30
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11:26 EDTCitigroup homebuilding analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Homebuilding Analyst Research Team, along with Campbell Surveys' Research Director, Tom Popik, discuss quarterly existing home sales trends via Campbell Surveys' HousingPulse Tracking Survey on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on October 24 at 1 pm.
10:01 EDTBernstein U.S. utilities analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
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09:45 EDTBernstein biotech analyst to hold an analyst/industry conference call
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09:36 EDTMarket opens lower, averages reverse in early trading
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08:59 EDTCitigroup to hold a conference
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08:07 EDTJefferies industrials analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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07:53 EDTCredit Suisse macroeconomics analysts hold analyst/industry conference call
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07:40 EDTFederal Reserve Bank President of Chicago speaks at conference
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07:29 EDTFutures show little bounce following last week’s decline
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07:15 EDTFX Update: The dollar is starting the week on a softer footing
FX Update: The dollar is starting the week on a softer footing, having given back most of its advance seen Friday against the euro and sterling while dropping to a four-week low against the outperforming yen. Trading conditions have and will remain thin today in the absence of Japan, the U.S. and Canada for respective public holidays. USD-JPY has been a catalyst for the softer dollar today, with the yen outperforming amid an air of risk aversion. The MSCI Asia Pacific continued lower today, and S&P 500 futures are also lower as market participants fret about global growth concerns and high valuations. The yen has an historical inverse correlation with risk appetite, as the a combination of Japanese repatriation of capital invested in overseas assets and squaring out of yen-funded carry positions tend to support the yen during the bad times, and the opposite forces tend to see the currency underperform during the good times. USD-JPY today dove to a low of 107.06, down just over 50 pips on Friday's closing level. EUR-USD recovered to the upper 1.26s.
06:31 EDTChinese trade data surpasses expectations, Reuters says
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06:02 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for October 13
Globex S&P futures are recently up 2.60 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 down 1.15%, DAX up 0.33%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $84.54, natural gas down 0.26%, gold at $1228 an ounce, and copper up 0.08%.
05:58 EDTOctober front month equity options last day to trade is October 17, 2014
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05:20 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY recovered the 107.50 level
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October 10, 2014
20:15 EDTConsumer Sentiment Index to be reported at 09:55
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20:15 EDTHousing Starts Permits to be reported at 08:30
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20:15 EDTHousing Starts to be reported at 08:30
September Housing Starts will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 1.010M
20:15 EDTHousing Market Index to be reported at 10:00
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20:15 EDTPhiladelphia Fed Survey General Business Conditions Index to be reported at 10:00
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20:15 EDTIndustrial Production Capacity Utilization Rate to be reported at 09:15
September Industrial Production Capacity Utilization Rate will be reported at 09:15 . Current consensus is 79.0%
20:15 EDTBusiness Inventories to be reported at 10:00
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20:15 EDTRetail Sales less autos to be reported at 08:30
September Retail Sales less autos will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 0.3% for the month
20:15 EDTEmpire State Mfg Survey General Business Conditions Index to be reported at 08:30
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20:15 EDTRetail Sales to be reported at 08:30
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20:15 EDTPPI-FD less food & energy to be reported at 08:30
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20:14 EDTPPI-FD to be reported at 08:30
September PPI-FD will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 0.1% for the month
20:14 EDTNFIB Small Business Optimism Index level to be reported at 07:30
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15:45 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: Though volatility remained endemic to the stock markets, the dollar and bond markets steadied just below recent highs. Europe crumbled again led by a dazzling 2.4% plunge on the German DAX, which eventually came home to roost on Wall Street with the help of the semiconductor sector after a typical but brief "deceased feline" bounce after the European close. Trade prices came in quite weak thanks to the energy slump and dollar rally, while the VIX equity vol index cruised to a fresh cycle high over 22.0.
15:25 EDTRichmond Fed hawk Lacker discussed backruptcy law
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15:20 EDTS&P revises France outlook to Negative, affirms AA rating
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14:55 EDTDallas Fed's Fisher said the economy is on the mend
Dallas Fed's Fisher said the economy is on the mend and growth should accelerate over the next six months. Labor market dynamics have been improving. However, there still are not signs of significant inflationary pressures. There's nothing new or insightful in his comments. The long-standing hawk will only be participating as a voter in two more FOMC meetings this year, and will be retiring next year.
14:00 EDTKC Fed hawk George says next year is a good time to hike
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13:55 EDTJanus' Gross October Investment Outlook was a hair late
Janus' Gross October Investment Outlook was a hair late this time around, which was understandable considering his hasty retreat from PIMCO across the street to his new offices. But he's wasting little time in carrying on the tradition with a moral lesson called "You Only Dance Twice". The upshot is similar to his video pitch earlier in the week for the new "unconstrained bond fund" - i.e. in a low return environment look for a shorter-duration return revved up by currency overlay, along with a blend of higher emerging market returns.
13:25 EDTAction Economics Survey Results:
Action Economics Survey Results: TGIF! What a jumpy week it's been in the markets, with huge 200 to 300 point daily swings in the Dow and a double digit drop in the 10-year Treasury yield. Growth fears, geopolitical risks, monetary policy uncertainties, and ongoing positioning on the PIMCO surprise continue to reverberate. Holidays in the U.S., Canada, and Japan could further complicate trading near term. The abbreviated U.S. trading week will include a number of key data points, not to mention Fedspeakers, and a pick up in earnings announcements. The Survey medians point to some pretty lackluster results that might further weigh on investor sentiment and add to expectations the FOMC will be very patient with its policy course. Headline retail sales are forecast slipping 0.1%, with the ex-auto number rising 0.2%. Producer prices are expected to remain subdued. And the Empire State and Philly Fed indexes are expected to reflect some slowing in activity, though industrial production is expected to bounce back.
13:20 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY held inside at 107.63 to 108.06
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12:50 EDTTreasury Option Action: some selling of 5-year volatility
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11:40 EDTThe U.S. VIX equity volatility index shot over 22.0
The U.S. VIX equity volatility index shot over 22.0 to fresh cycle highs with all the renewed selling pressure on stocks via Europe and semis, marking a high of 22.08 before pulling back to 19.50. That took the VIX through 21.91 prior-year highs and through a series of spike highs in the interim, with December 31, 2012, highs of 23.23 the next upside target and 27.73 from June 2012 if things get really ugly. European shares remain bearish into their close, though typically there has been a daily pop on Wall Street after that event. But perhaps its no coincidence that vol is making a comeback as the end of Fed QE approaches.
11:13 EDTDA Davidson advanced materials analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
Advanced Materials Analyst Kant provides a weekly industry update on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on October 13 at 11 am.
11:10 EDTCitigroup agriculture analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Analysts, along with International Agribusiness Group Consultant Rob Fisher, discuss the Farm to Fork WASDE Report on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on October 10 at 2 pm.
11:05 EDTGuggenheim analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
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11:02 EDTJefferies discusses commodities on an analyst/industry conference call
Analysts, along with Commodity Weather Group Founder & COO David Streit, discuss the weather impact for commodities on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on October 10 at 11 am.
11:00 EDTTreasury Action: yields are consolidating above lows
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10:45 EDTJanus' Gross Tweeted: "The New Natural policy rate is 0%
Janus' Gross Tweeted: "The New Natural policy rate is 0% real and 2% nominal for the U.S. For EZ and Japan it is lower. Adjust valuations to this concept." Apparently he has no compunctions about borrowing themes incubated at his former employer PIMCO.
10:15 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: a large package
Euro$ interest rate options: a large package included the sale of 20k Short June 80/82 put spreads vs a purchase of 80k Jun 90/91 put spreads, paying 3 for the full package. Other deals came in the form of a sale of 10k in Long Red December 2015 87 puts in block trade, a purchase of 5k Short September broken put 80/77/76 butterflies (bought wings). There was also a purchase of 5k in Front December 93/96 put 1x2s (buying the 1st leg). December 2014s are flat at 99.77, but the deferreds are 0.5-2.0 ticks firmer out the curve as stocks gyrate.
09:55 EDTStocks bounced from lows reportedly on Ukraine news
Stocks bounced from lows reportedly on Ukraine news that Kiev agreed to withdraw from several cities in Eastern Ukraine. Donetsk rebels reportedly signed a demarkation line, but this could be overly optimistic in that it came from the Russian Information Agency (RIA). Indeed, while Wall Street cut much deeper overnight lossess into the open, somebody forgot to tell European equities which remain deeply underwater with the Euro Stoxx 50 -1% lower and the DAX -1.8%. Ukraine has not really been on equity radar screens of late anyway, more so the associated triple-dip recession risk in Europe and the spread of Ebola in Spain.
09:41 EDTAverages open lower, turn mixed in early trade
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09:15 EDTPhilly Fed hawkish dissenter Plosser: policy should be data dependent
Philly Fed hawkish dissenter Plosser: policy should be data dependent and not date-dependent. He's concerned that the Fed statements imply the Fed wants to hit the unemployment goal ASAP and he is worried that the Fed is shifting focus between the dual employment and inflation mandates. He also suggests the Fed prepare quarterly comprehensive policy reports for Congress, though that is likely to go over like a lead balloon with his peers in terms of Fed independence.
09:05 EDTThe U.S. trade price report
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09:05 EDTU.S. equities are back in the dog house
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields steadied above lows
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08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar edged higher
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08:40 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD fell from near session highs
FX Action: USD-CAD fell from near session highs of 1.1220 to 1.1160 lows in the aftermath of the much better Canadian employment report, where new full time jobs surged, and the unemployment rate fell to 6.8% from 7.0%. The weak commodity market backdrop, and risk-off conditions could well temper further downside, though the jobs report was certainly enough to prompt a quick round of selling.
08:30 EDTU.S. trade price preview:
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08:10 EDTCanada Employment Preview
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07:55 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD rallied to four-session highs
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07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds are higher as another bout of risk aversion
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07:45 EDTFour hawkish Fedspeakers of the Apocolypse due Friday:
Four hawkish Fedspeakers of the Apocolypse due Friday: Philly Fed hawkish dissenter Plosser will consider "Monetary Policy and Communications" from 9 ET. Kansas City hawk George will discuss the economy at a KC Fed economic forum from 13 ET. Dallas Fed hawkish dissenter Fisher will mull "Texas: The Jagannatha of the American Economy," (Hindu: Lord of the World) showing off his education at an education conference from 13:30 ET. Richmond Fed hawk Lacker will take a sober look at "Rethinking the Unthinkable: Bankruptcy for Large Finanacial Institutions" from 15 ET, but then the bond market will have one foot out the door for the long Columbus Day weekend. Note, this weekend the Chicago Fed will host a 2-day conference at which Tarullo, Williams, Evans and Fischer will be speaking.
07:30 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:28 EDTCorrection talk back in vogue as futures point to lower open
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07:24 EDTFederal Reserve Bank President of Richmond speaks on bankruptcy
Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Lacker provides a speech "Rethinking the Unthinkable: Bankruptcy for Large Financial Institutions" at the Annual Meeting of the National Conference of Bankruptcy Judges being held in Chicago on October 10 at 1 pm.
07:22 EDTFederal Reserve Bank President of Philadelphia speaks on monetary policy
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07:18 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of Chicago to hold a conference
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06:54 EDTIMF head economist says China growth could fall to 6%, Xinhua says
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05:55 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for October 10
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05:51 EDTOctober front month equity options last day to trade is October 17, 2014
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05:35 EDTFX Action: The dollar capped out after a wave of buying
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03:00 EDTFX Update: The dollar has consolidated Thursday's rebound
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02:48 EDTWeek of 10/22 Fed Balance Sheet to be released at 16:30
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02:48 EDTWeek of 10/13 Money Supply to be released at 16:30
October 9, 2014
16:44 EDTFed Balance Sheet Total Assets data reported
Week of 10/8 Fed Balance Sheet Total Assets at $5.1B
16:44 EDTMoney Supply M2 Weekly Change data reported
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16:44 EDTWeek of 10/17 EIA Natural Gas Report to be released at 10:30
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15:20 EDTU.S. trade price preview:
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15:00 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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14:40 EDTiPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures are recently up 2.41 to 31.95
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14:05 EDTFed VC Fischer suggested "considerable time" means 2-months to a year
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13:40 EDTFed Governor Tarullo confined his comments to bank regulation
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13:30 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY struggled its way up
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13:25 EDTFed hawk Lacker: inflation should converge on 2%
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13:20 EDTTreasury Action: long yields reversed lower
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10:27 EDTJobless Claims to be reported at 08:30
Week of 10/18 Jobless Claims will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is 285K
13:15 EDTTreasury's $13 B bond reopening saw mixed results
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12:55 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD touched 1.1172
FX Action: USD-CAD touched 1.1172, up from session lows of 1.1090, as equities melt down, and as oil prices look to have no bottom in sight. Wednesday's post FOM minutes stock rally has been more then unwound, while NYMEX crude is down another $1.60 at $85.71/bbl after touching trend lows of $85.60. These factors continue to weigh on the CAD, with the next risk event coming Friday in the form of the September Canadian employment report.
12:50 EDTU.S. equities are skidding to lows again
U.S. equities are skidding to lows again as the post-FOMC minutes rally gets fully eradicated after Europe reversed into the red into their close earlier and Wall Street ran with that bearish baton again. Though crude oil is extending its growth-related slide below $86 bbl now, safe haven gold has been bid back up over $1,224, though below $1,233 earlier highs. NASDAQ is leading the charge at -1.7%, followed by the blue chips at a slight lag. Comments from ECB's Draghi about weak growth in Europe reportedly added to investor unease, while IMF's Lagard was pretty bleak as well. Energy and industrial stocks remain at the vortex of selling pressure, with the deepest losses on Dow components Exxon -2.8%, Caterpillar -1.7% and Chevron -2.6%. The VIX equity volatility index shot 15% higher back to a high of 17.44, just below 18.03 from yesterday prior to the FOMC minutes.
12:45 EDTTreasury's 30-year auction preview:
Treasury's 30-year auction preview: the reopening should benefit from another 200+ point drop in the Dow as growth concerns mount. Additionally, some concession building through the morning has boosted the wi to 3.07% after having tested 3.03% early on. However, these are still some of the richest levels since May 2013 and that could prove troubling. Many are also worried that gains since the FOMC Minutes have put the market in over-bought territory. Shorts may have also covered to leave less of a short base. On the plus side the dovish tone from the FOMC Minutes and the soft inflation outlook should underpin, as should today's tilt toward a curve steepener which has cheapened the bond. The 3% coupon should bring in real money buyers and should be attractive to other accounts too, including investment funds, not to mention foreign accounts. Yesterday's indirect bid was below average however and that could be problematic if that's the case again today. September's bond auction priced strong at 3.24% and saw a 2.67 cover (2.44 average) and a 45.5% indirect bid (44.3% average), while direct bidders accepted a hefty 21.8%.
12:40 EDTTreasury Option Action: decent early flows on bonds
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12:10 EDTFed dove Bullard is concerned about the disconnect
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11:40 EDTMore from dethroned Bond King Bill: while he doesn't envisage a crash
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11:25 EDTBill Gross of Janus Capital Group released a new investment outlook
Bill Gross of Janus Capital Group released a new investment outlook in video form as part of his transition from his home port of PIMCO. Riffing on a nautical theme, he quotes "red skies at night, sailers delight," which for him means calmer waters at Janus. However, with a bandage under his right eye, it does look like the door hit him on the way out. Without the clout of a $2 tln portfolio behind him, it's not clear yet that his words will carry the same weight as before, with many withdrawals from PIMCO funds in wake of his departure still on the sidelines as investment boards consider their options. After a "rough few weeks" he believes its going to be a better few months and years. Here's a video link.
11:20 EDTTreasury announced a $51 B 3- and 6-month bill auction for Tuesday
Treasury announced a $51 B 3- and 6-month bill auction for Tuesday (Treasuries closed Monday for Columbus Day), bumping up the volume by $3 B, with all of the increase in the longer tranche. That brings the 6-month size to $27 B, while the 3-month remains at $24 B. The debt managers also outlined an unchanged $25 B 52-week bill sale (Wednesday). Supply lightens next week with just bills on the schedule.
11:09 EDT52-Week Bill Announcement CUSIP Number data reported
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11:09 EDT52-Week Bill Announcement Offering Amount data reported
52-Week Bill Announcement Offering Amount at $25.0 B
11:09 EDT6-Month Bill Announcement Offering Amount data reported
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11:09 EDT3-Month Bill Announcement Offering Amount data reported
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10:50 EDTU.S. corporate debt: a $5.1 B Dynegy Financial multi-trancher
U.S. corporate debt: a $5.1 B Dynegy Financial multi-trancher creeps on to the books on Friday, a high yield offering comprised of 6-,8- and 10-year tranches. A few other high yield deals crop up then as well, including a $1 B 2-trancher form Lunding Mining, MPG, Natural Resources and Providence among them. Otherwise, there's really not much on the corporate docket today to remotely crowd the Treasury's $13 B reopening later.
10:35 EDTSt Louis Fed's Bullard didn't speak on policy or the economy
St Louis Fed's Bullard didn't speak on policy or the economy in his introductory remarks as the Community Banking Research and Policy Conference. He will be speaking with reporters later today. A number of other Fedspeakers are on the docket today, including VC Fischer, governor Tarullo, and presidents Lacker and Williams. Note too that ECB's Draghi will be speaking along with Stan Fischer on monetary policy and global central banking at the Brookings Institute.
10:30 EDTEIA Natural Gas Storage Change for the week ending October 3
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10:30 EDTThe U.S. wholesale trade report
The U.S. wholesale trade report revealed diverging sales and inventory paths that were modestly discouraging on net. Wholesale sales undershot inventories in August given a 0.7% sales rise but 0.7% inventory, after a five-month stretch of stronger sales than inventory figures. Thanks to disappointing sales, the inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio bounced to 1.19 from 1.17 over the prior three months (was 1.16 in July) to bring the ratio back to the high-end of the 1.16-1.19 range evident since April of 2013. Analysts saw a much lower 1.13 cycle-low in January of 2011 that matched the all-time low in June of 2008. Our 2.8% Q3 GDP growth estimate incorporates a $12 B inventory subtraction, following a $49.6 B inventory boost to Q2 GDP growth that translated to a relatively lofty $84.8 B accumulation rate. For monthly forecasts, analysts expect a 0.4% (was 0.3%) August business inventory rise, given today's 0.7% wholesale increase, the 0.1% factory inventory rise, and an assumed 0.6% retail inventory gain. The overall business I/S ratio should rise to 1.30 in August from 1.29 over the prior five months.
10:25 EDTTreasury 30-year auction outlook:
Treasury 30-year auction outlook: the $13 B bond reopening completes this week's auctions. Yesterday's 10-year sale was very poorly subscribed, after a strong 3-year sale Tuesday, and today's is likely to fall somewhere in between. The wi richened to 3.03% in early trading, the lowest since May 2013, but has risen to 3.06% after the improved claims data and as the market sets up for the sale. The bond traded as cheap as 3.135% on Monday as the jobs report continued to reverberate. Like the 10-year auction yesterday, the outright richness may temper demand. Meanwhile, the 10s-30s spread has widened out to 73 bps, the widest since mid-September, which could be attractive at the margin. A tame inflation outlook is also supportive. There will be a natural bid for duration, and the likely 3% coupon should bring in real money buyers too, while the wide spreads to European and Asian sovereigns should underpin. However, the indirect bid on yesterday's 10-year came in a little below average. September's bond auction priced strong at 3.24% and saw a 2.67 cover (2.44 average) and a 45.5% indirect bid (44.3% average), while direct bidders accepted a hefty 21.8%.
10:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields held above lows
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10:15 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD peaked at 1.1126
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10:10 EDTU.S. August wholesale inventories surged 0.7%, while sales dropped 0.7%
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10:03 EDTWholesale Trade Inventories data reported
August Wholesale Trade Inventories up 0.7% vs. consensus of 0.3% for the month
10:00 EDTU.S. wholesale trade preview:
U.S. wholesale trade preview: Wholesale sales are expected to grow 0.2% in August (median 0.4%) vs 0.7% in July, while inventories should grow 0.3% vs 0.1% in July. Data in-line with our forecast would leave the I/S ratio up to 1.17 from 1.16 in July. report for more detail.
09:54 EDTBofA/Merrill REITs-Apartments hold analyst/industry conference call
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09:48 EDTBloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Level data reported
Week of 10/5 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Level at 36.8
09:39 EDTMarket opens in negative ground despite lower weekly jobless claims
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09:25 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: a variety of flows
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08:55 EDTU.S. equities are underwater again
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08:50 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude is down 40 cents
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08:50 EDTThe 1k U.S. initial claims downtick to 287k
The 1k U.S. initial claims downtick to 287k in the first week of October extended last week's 8k drop to 288k (was 287k) to leave a sustained lean trajectory for claims since the 279k cycle-low in mid-July. Claims continue to oscillate closer to the tight 281k September BLS survey week figure than the elevated 316k Labor Day reading. Claims are entering October below the 294k September average, following higher prior averages of 303k in August, 296k in July, and 315k in June. The 281k September BLS survey week reading sat well below prior BLS readings of 299k in August, 303k in July, and 314k in June. Analysts assume a 210k October payroll rise that undershoots the 248k September gain, versus average monthly increases of 224k in Q3, 220k over the past year, and 209k over the past two years. Analysts assume 210k monthly gains through Q4. Payrolls face upside risk from a firm trend for initial claims, producer sentiment, and ADP, and an ongoing consumer confidence climb back above mid-2013 levels.
08:45 EDTFX Action: The dollar perked up slightly
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08:45 EDTTreasury Action: yields retreated from lows
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08:40 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims slipped 1k to 287k in the week ended October 4
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08:36 EDTFutures little changed after claims data
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08:20 EDTWorld Bank Group to hold a press briefing
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08:20 EDTU.S. initial jobless claims preview:
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07:50 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: bonds have extended gains
Treasury Market Outlook: bonds have extended gains after the FOMC Minutes surprised on the more dovish side yesterday. The 10-year note yield dropped to 2.278% in overnight trading, while the 2-year yield has slid to 0.42% after testing 0.59% a couple of weeks ago. The German Bund made a new intraday low at 0.85%. Equities are little changed, unable to feed off of the rebound on Wall Street yesterday, and good news from Alcoa which kicked off earnings season last night. The BoE left policy unchanged, as expected. Japanese core machine tool orders rose 4.7%, while German exports plunged 5.8% in August. There's not much on today's calendar to inspire trading. The Treasury completes its $61 B in coupon auctions with the reopening of the 30-year bond. Data includes weekly initial jobless claims, August wholesale trade, and chain store sales for September. There's a lot of Fedspeak, however, but policymakers' views remain mixed, as reflected in the FOMC Minutes yesterday and hence shouldn't provide any clarity. Speaking are Fed VC Fischer, Bullard, Tarullo, Lacker, and Williams.
07:50 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:46 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President speaks on economic outlook
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07:45 EDTThe Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to hold an open meeting
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07:43 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of Richmond President to speaks on the labor market
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07:40 EDTThe Brookings Institution to hold a discussion
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07:39 EDTSt. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President to speak at conference
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07:38 EDTThe SEC to hold a meeting
Dodd-Frank Investor Advisory Committee holds a meeting at SEC Washington, D.C. offices on October 9 at 10 am. Webcast Link
07:33 EDTFDA Circulatory Systems Devices Panel to hold a meeting
The Panel discusses and makes recommendations regarding the classification of more-than-minimally manipulated allograft heart valves (MMM Allograft HVs) in a meeting being held in Gaithersburg, Maryland on October 9 at 8 am. Webcast Link
07:30 EDTFBR Capital to hold a conference
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07:24 EDTFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis to hold a conference
39th Annual Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Fall Conference is being held in St. Louis, Missouri on October 9-10.
07:20 EDTBofA/Merrill to hold a workshop
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07:02 EDTBank of England maintains bank rate and size of asset purchase program
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07:00 EDTFX Update: The dollar extended losses
FX Update: The dollar extended losses in Asia and Europe as markets continued to adjust to the dovish-leaning FOMC minutes, which also earmarked dollar strength as a specific concern for some Fed policymakers. EUR-USD lifted to 1.2791, taking out the 20-day moving average on route, marking this as the first day the euro has traded north of this average since Jul-15. The up-move in EUR-USD has been concomitant with a decline in the Bund versus U.S. T-note yield differential, which has risen to -141.9 bp, down from levels below -150bp. In the bigger picture the growth divergence between the Eurozone and U.S. should curtail EUR-USD's upside. USD-JPY, meanwhile, has drifted to new three-week lows under 107.65. Mid-September lows at 106.82-107.09 look likely to be revisited
06:59 EDTGerman exports sank 5.8% in August, Reuters says
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05:59 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for October 9
Globex S&P futures are recently up 5.30 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 down 0.75%, DAX up 1.11%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $87.68, natural gas up 0.16%, gold at $1226 an ounce, and copper up 1.135%.
05:50 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY rebound stalled shy of 108.00
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04:05 EDTFX Action: The dollar has extended losses
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02:15 EDTFX Update: The dollar extended loss seen on the dovish FOMC minutes
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October 8, 2014
23:05 EDTJapan core machinery orders rose 4.7% m/m in August
Japan core machinery orders rose 4.7% m/m in August after the 3.5% gain in July, outpacing expectations for a more modest improvement. Core machinery orders (excludes electricity and shipbuilding) fell 3.3% on a annual comparable basis in August after the 1.1% y/y gain in July. USD-JPY is little changed from its post FOMC level of 108.15. The Fed voiced of concern over the stronger dollar in the FOMC minutes, causing the dollar to be knocked broadly lower.
16:43 EDT Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer Speech to be released at 17:00
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16:43 EDTWeek of 10/17 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30
15:20 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
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15:15 EDTU.S. weekly jobless claims preview:
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14:32 EDTMinutes show FOMC members disagreed on interest rate guidance
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14:20 EDTWeek of 10/17 MBA Purchase Applications to be released at 07:00
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14:20 EDTFOMC Minutes showed a number of worries among policymakers
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14:15 EDTFX Action: The dollar was smacked broadly lower
FX Action: The dollar was smacked broadly lower after the release of the FOMC minutes, where the Fed voiced concerns over the strength of the dollar, and its impact on the U.S. economy. The FOMC is concerned that a stronger dollar will bring down import prices, and keep inflation lower for a longer period. EUR-USD spiked up to 1.2727 highs from 1.2655, as USD-JPY dove to near 108.15 from 108.75.
14:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields dropped on the FOMC minutes
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14:09 EDTFed members agreed rate increase dependent on economic data
Minutes from the last Fed meeting read, "Participants agreed that the timing of the first increase in the federal funds rate and the appropriate path of the policy rate thereafter would depend on incoming economic data and their implications for the outlook. That said, several participants thought that the current forward guidance regarding the federal funds rate suggested a longer period before liftoff, and perhaps also a more gradual increase in the federal funds rate thereafter, than they believed was likely to be appropriate given economic and financial conditions...In addition, some participants saw the current forward guidance as appropriate in light of risk-management considerations, which suggested that it would be prudent to err on the side of patience while awaiting further evidence of sustained progress toward the Committee's goals."
14:04 EDTFed members noted potential for slower than expected growth
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13:40 EDTFX Action: The dollar has perked up fairly broadly
FX Action: The dollar has perked up fairly broadly, now that Wall Street has apparently stemmed the bleeding for now. EUR-USD is under 1.2660, down from highs over 1.2690, while USD-JPY has rallied nearly 90 points from its Asian low of 107.75. USD-CAD is back over 1.1200, while cable is under 1.6050.
13:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields backed up to session highs
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13:15 EDTTreasury's 10-year auction was poorly subscribed
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12:40 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: heavy bullish demand
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12:40 EDTTreasury 10-year auction preview:
Treasury 10-year auction preview: the wi has cheapened slightly to 2.365% in recent trading. Nevertheless, a stop there would still be one of the lowest rates since June 2013 and that may inhibit some buyers, especially as the Fed is ending QE this month, and is expected to start hiking rates around mid-2015, though that is up for debate. The advent of a potentially hawkish set of FOMC Minutes may also detract from demand. Additionally, the 5s-10s-30s butterfly is also at the rich end of the spectrum. And the recent track record of auctions has not been great. Nevertheless, the wide spread to Bunds and JGBs is expected to result in another solid indirect bid that should be overall supportive for the offering. The potential for curve flatteners is also a positive for the auction, as are tame inflation expectations and rising growth worries. The September auction stopped at 2.535% and garnered a 2.71 cover (2.70 average), a 53.0% indirect bid (45.4% average), with a 13.5% direct bid.
12:05 EDTTreasury Action: the rally in the bond market has stalled for now
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11:55 EDTFX Action: Bottom fishing has supported USD-JPY
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11:40 EDTU.S. equities have resumed their slide
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11:10 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD touched 1.1210 highs
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10:55 EDTTreasury Option Action: mixed trade at long-end
Treasury Option Action: mixed trade at long-end included the bullish purchases of 10k in December 127.5/129.5 call 1x2s and 4k in November 124.5/125.5 call spreads. Further out, there was a sale of 2k in December 146 calls on bond futures as well. December 10s are still 3.5-ticks firmer at 126-035, while December bonds are flat near 140-19.
10:40 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude fell to trend lows
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10:38 EDTBrookings Institute hosts Mario Draghi
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10:31 EDTCrude Inventories for the week of October 3
Crude oil inventories 5.02M build vs. consensus of 2.0M build. Gasoline inventories 1.18M build vs. consensus of 500K draw. Distillates 439K build vs. consensus of 1.25M draw.
10:19 EDTJPMorgan life science tools analyst to hold an analyst/industry conference call
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10:15 EDTThe Moderating U.S. Housing Sector Recovery:
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10:05 EDTTreasury Option Action: bearish positioning
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10:00 EDTTreasury 10-year auction outlook:
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09:29 EDTUBS healthcare services analyst holds an analyst/industry conference call
Healthcare Services Analyst Rice, Leisure Analyst Farley and Airlines Analyst Genovesi assess the current situation with the Ebola outbreak and the readiness of the U.S. healthcare system to address the challenge on an Analyst/Industry conference call to be held on October 8 at 11 am.
09:25 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD was kept from 1.1200 overnight
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09:10 EDTEuro$ interest rate options: a large block trade
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08:50 EDTU.S. equities have recouped some losses
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08:50 EDTChicago Fed's Evans said while there has been "significant improvement"
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08:25 EDTChicago Fed dove Evans will discuss the economy
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07:55 EDTCanada Housing Starts Preview
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07:55 EDTOil Action: NYMEX crude hit a new trend low
Oil Action: NYMEX crude hit a new trend low of $87.39 overnight, before recovering to current $88.10 levels. Global growth fears, which have been roiling the equity markets this week, have spilled over into the oil market, where the ongoing supply/demand equation remains out of balance. With recent lows now broken, traders see scope for a move toward $85/bbl in the coming sessions.
07:45 EDTTreasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed to slightly lower
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07:45 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index rose 3.8%
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07:40 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar recovered from its worst overnight levels in London trade, though despite the concerns over EU growth, the euro remains near the top of its recent range. The market remains well short, and analysts suspect further EUR-USD advances will be needed to clear out what are becoming stale short positions. In the same light, USD-JPY may be getting close to have squeezed enough longs out to be able to attempt a move higher now, after it touched 107.76 lows, levels last seen on September 17. Yields and equity futures are marginally higher this morning, though there is no U.S. data on tap this morning. The minutes from the last FOMC meeting at 14:00 EDT will be of interest this afternoon.
07:34 EDTCFA Society of Philadelphia to host a luncheon meeting
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07:33 EDTEconomic Club of Washington, D.C. to hold a luncheon meeting
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07:21 EDTUBS to hold a conference
South Africa Tomorrow Investor Conference is being held in New York on October 8-9.
07:18 EDTJPMorgan to hold a forum
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07:14 EDTDeutsche Bank to hold a conference
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07:13 EDTSABR Capital Management / Schulte Roth & Zabel to hold a conference
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07:12 EDTDeutsche Bank to hold a conference
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07:03 EDTMBA Purchase Applications Index data reported
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07:03 EDTMBA Purchase Applications Composite Index data reported
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05:51 EDTOn The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for October 8
Globex S&P futures are recently down 0.20 from previous day’s SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 down 1.19%, DAX down 0.75%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $87.78, natural gas down 1.24%, gold at $1219 an ounce, and copper down 0.15%.
05:47 EDTOctober front month equity options last day to trade is October 17, 2014
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02:00 EDTFX Action: The dollar is slightly firmer
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