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News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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May 14, 2015
02:30 EDTFX Update: EUR-USD remains well bid
FX Update: EUR-USD remains well bid following yesterday's U.S. data misses, particularly the weak retail sales figure which sparked downward revisions to Q1 GDP estimates to the -0.7% area from the initially reported +0.2% figure. This has seen the dollar's yield advantage erode back to the 155 bp area at the 10-year T-note versus Bund comparison, down from above 160 bp. EUR-USD upside markers are provided yesterday's peak at 1.1383 and last Thursday's 10-week peak at 1.1392. USD-JPY has settled in the low 119s after dipping to a one-week low of 119.03 yesterday. The Tokyo high and the 100-day moving average at 119.35 now provide near-term resistance markers. Cable remains firm after clocking a five-month high at 1.5769 yesterday on data showing above-forecast UK wage data and a new cycle low in the unemployment rate. The dollar bloc currencies have posted fresh highs against the greenback. USD-CAD has dipped to a fresh four-month low at 1.1924, breaching a big-picture support region at 1.1950-1.2000. Steadier oil prices and the recent erosion in the U.S. dollar's yield advantage have been driving the pair lower. AUD-USD logged a four-month peak at 0.8163, and NZD-USD cracked to a nine-day peak at 0.7567 following strong NZ retail sales data.
May 13, 2015
16:40 EDT 4-Week Bill Auction to be released at 11:30
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15:00 EDTTreasury Closing Summary:
Treasury Closing Summary: The Bund tantrum resumed on Wednesday after short respite, as growth divergence continues with the states thanks in part to past dollar strength. Eurozone Q1 GDP kicked higher, while U.S. retail sales in April were disappointingly flat, trade prices sank and business inventories grew only marginally. That same yield back-up helped attract foreign demand to the $24 B 10-year auction, but the celebration was a short one as the paper was soon back under water. Stocks managed to come out on top despite the headwinds from yields, though the dollar plunged on the consumption shortfall.
14:36 EDTAverages still searching for direction in afternoon trading
Stocks are mixed and near the flatline in afternoon trading, as has been the case for several hours. The early move was higher but it was short circuited when the weekly energy inventories revealed larger than expected draws for crude, gasoline, and distillates. Despite the drawdown in energy supplies the price of crude has moved back and forth across the flatline and is fractionally higher in afternoon trade. Advancing stocks are ahead of declining stocks by 5:4 and up volume is ahead of down volume by a similar margin.
14:25 EDTTreasury Action: curve steepeners remain in place
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13:35 EDTAtlanta Fed's Altig said raising rate soon is more costly
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13:23 EDTWeek of 5/23 Redbook to be released at 08:55
13:23 EDTWeek of 5/22 MBA Mortgage Applications to be released at 07:00
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13:20 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY made 119.04 lows
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13:15 EDTTreasury's $24 B 10-year sale was so-so
Treasury's $24 B 10-year sale was so-so. The offering garnered solid statistics, but had to cheapen considerably to do so. The note tailed to 2.237% after already cheapening to 2.255% at the bid deadline. That award rate compares to 1.925% in April and is the highest since last May. Bids totaled $65.3 B for a 2,72 cover, up from the 2.62 previously and the 2.68 average. Indirect bidders were awarded 60.2%, also better than April's 58.5% and the 49.5% average, and is the best since December 2011. Direct bidders took 20.9%, more than double last month's 9.3%, while primary dealers accepted 18.9%, about half of the prior 32.2%.
13:15 EDTTreasury Action: yields rolled over lower
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12:40 EDTTreasury 10-year auction preview:
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11:55 EDTAtlanta Fed's Q2 GDPNow estimate dipped to 0.7%
Atlanta Fed's Q2 GDPNow estimate dipped to 0.7% from 0.8% previously following the retail trade report, placing it still well below the rough 4.25-2.60% consensus by Blue Chip economists. Next update will be following housing starts on May 19.
11:45 EDTTreasury Option Action: more info on Bunds
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11:15 EDTTreasury Action: more dislocation on Bunds
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10:50 EDTToday's U.S. reports
Today's U.S. reports revealed weakness across the retail sales, inventory and trade price data that signals both a downward Q1 GDP growth revision to the -0.7% area from 0.2% and downside risk to our 2.5% Q2 GDP forecast. A flat April retail sales figure leaves only a small two-month bounce after a three-month string of big price-led drops through February, with little apparent benefit from two quarters of cheap gasoline. The inventory data revealed an ongoing producer effort to trim lofty inventory levels as gauged by recessionary-highs for the I/S ratio, while trade price weakness reemerged after a two-month hiatus in response to a weak global economy and a soaring dollar.
10:45 EDTEnergy Action: Front month NYMEX crude briefly rallied
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10:30 EDTCrude inventories for week of May 8
Crude oil inventories 2.19M draw vs. consensus of 250K draw. Gasoline inventories 1.1M draw vs. consensus of 250K build. Distillates 2.5M draw vs. consensus of 750K.
10:30 EDTThe 0.1% March U.S. business inventory rise
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10:20 EDTTreasury Action: yields rebounded from lows
Treasury Action: yields rebounded from lows with stocks recovering some composure after muted opening gains, with the reasonable skew to the inventory/sales ratio at least not inflaming the slowdown story. The T-note yield found support under 2.20% after diving on retail and price shortfalls earlier and seems to be gravitating toward the 2.24% pivot again, which previously marked a double-top on a closing basis. Yesterday's high of 2.365% was the highest level since November and is starting to look like a blow-off high, assuming the bond market is not hijacked by animal spirits in Bunds again, leaving the 1.99% 100-day m.a. attracting.
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