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November 10, 2012
08:15 EDTEmpire State Mfg Survey General Business Conditions Index to be reported at 08:30
November Empire State Mfg Survey General Business Conditions Index will be reported at 08:30 . Current consensus is [5.00]
News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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June 17, 2015
13:55 EDTFed's Yellen is getting some heat for "willful obstruction"
Fed's Yellen is getting some heat for "willful obstruction" of the subpoena to get her to reveal the protagonist in the the leak probe, according to the House Financial Services Committee, which rejected her reason for non-compliance. Fed reporter Pedro da Costa of the WSJ has allegedly been banned from today's presser after the statement for pestering Yellen on the leak, and he's asked others to press her in his stead. Could get interesting.
12:10 EDTTreasury Option Action: the low-volume sell-off
Treasury Option Action: the low-volume sell-off in underlying Treasury futures into the Fed decision has been accompanied by mixed option activity, say sources. They note that it's been fairly orderly and directionally mixed. Among the standouts on the 10-year were bullish buyers of 12k in July 126 calls, 3.5k in July 127 calls, along with bullish sales of 7.5k in July 125/124 put 1x2s, 5k in August 124 puts and 1k in August 125/123.5 put spreads. On the bearish side were purchases of 5k in August 122/123.5/125 put butterflies, 5k in July 123.5 puts and 7.5k in week 3 124 puts. Also bearish were sales of some 15k total in various call structures. September 10s reversed opening gains and have since slumped 14.5-ticks to the 125-145 area, compared with the 126-02 to 125-135 range. The cash T-note has since backed up from 2.30% in Asia to session highs of 2.377%.
11:45 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude has erased all of its overnight gains
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11:35 EDTFOMC forecast revisions will be a key outcome from today' meeting
FOMC forecast revisions will be a key outcome from today' meeting and will be used to assess tightening probabilities for later in the year, as well as the likely rate trajectory. Despite the bounce in growth optimism in recent weeks, the FOMC will likely trim the official GDP estimates for 2015. But, it is also expected to increase the 2015-16 PCE chain price projections as energy prices have partly recovered from early-2015 lows. Analysts expect a 0.1%-0.2% downward shift in the 2015 GDP central tendency of 2.3%-2.7%, and 0.4% boosts in the 2015 PCE chain price central tendency of 0.6%-0.8%, with likely additional upward nudge of 0.1% in the low-end inflation estimates for 2016. The core price central tendencies should remain roughly unchanged. The Fed may sidestep the usual downward bumps in the jobless rate estimates, given the flat jobless rate trend since February. The aggressive high-end near-term Fed funds rate estimates should be lowered as views converge toward the market expectation of a September or October start for Fed tightening. page for a table of our assumptions for the Fed's revised forecasts.
11:20 EDTU.S. equities are creeping higher with Europe
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11:00 EDTFX Action: The dollar has moved broadly higher
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10:40 EDTEnergy Action: Front month NYMEX crude fell to $60.55
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10:31 EDTCrude inventories for week of June 12
Crude oil inventories 2.68M draw vs. consensus of 1.8M draw. Gasoline inventories 460K build vs. consensus of 800K draw. Distillates 114K build vs. consensus of 950K build
10:05 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures are bracing for the Fed call
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09:42 EDTStocks add to yesterday’s gains with higher open ahead of Fed
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09:00 EDTTreasury Option Action: bullish positioning
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08:50 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD climbed to 1.2333 highs
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08:25 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude oil moved to five-session highs
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08:25 EDTU.S. equities are mildly firmer
U.S. equities are mildly firmer even as Europe continues to sag on contradictory headlines on Greece ahead of Thursday's meeting, while the proximity of the FOMC decision will preoccupy Wall Street for the balance of the session. The Dow is 19-points firmer, S&P rose 1-point and NASDAQ is fractionally lower ahead of the opening clang, below earlier highs. In Europe, the acrimony and mud slinging on Greece continues to cause collateral damage on stocks, with the Euro Stoxx 50 0.8% lower, the DAX off 0.7% and Athens -1.1%. In contrast, Asia bounced back with a 1.6% rise on the Shanghai Comp and 1.9% gain on the Shenzhen, though a 0.19% drop on the Nikkei. After the MBA reported weak mortgage activity due to higher rates, the EIA inventory report is due next before the Fed decision. T-mobile rallied nearly 2% after reports the Comcast might be a suitor, while Adobe sank over 1% after a sales miss and Synergy Pharma surged 45% after its constipation drug study hit its targets.
08:23 EDTiShares iBoxx $ InvesTop Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund volatility up
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08:20 EDTJanney Capital analysts hold an analyst/industry conference call
Analysts host an Analyst/Industry conference call with PricewaterhouseCoopers Partner, Gregory Johnson, on June 17 at 10:30 am.
08:05 EDTU.S. productivity slowdown wildcard on FOMC day:
U.S. productivity slowdown wildcard on FOMC day: the Fed is mulling three views on productivity that could dictate its tightening trajectory, according to WSJ's Hilsenrath detailed in his Grand Central blog - 1) Productivity was damaged by the 2007-09 financial crisis and recession 2) productivity was already on the decline, and 3) due to mismeasurement, there's no decline at all. "The Fed's policy announcement today will contain important clues about how officials are reading the slowdown. If they think the productivity slowdown is real, they will stick to plans to start raising short-term interest rates later this year, but their projections for rates in 2016 and beyond could come down, as might their projections for the economy's long-run growth potential. Beyond these projections, don't be surprised if the issue comes up in Janet Yellen's post-meeting discussion of the economy or in the question-and-answer session with reporters that follows, because the issue is sure to get plenty of airing in the Fed's behind-the-scenes discussions." Hilsenrath also noted on the dot-plot that there will be contributions from 2 interim policy makers, given seat vacancies.
07:47 EDTFOMC holds a meeting
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07:45 EDTN.Y. FX Outlook
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07:40 EDTU.S. MBA mortgage market index sank 5.5%
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