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News For NOSYMBOL From The Last 14 Days
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March 25, 2015
13:15 EDTTreasury Action: intermediate yields backed up
Treasury Action: intermediate yields backed up in the wake of the mixed results on the 5-year auction, leaving the current 5-year yield over 1.38% from the 1.37% area into the sale, compared to the 1.387% award rate and session lows of 1.34%. The 50% retrace of the 2015 swing arrives near 1.43%, which may attract initially.
12:45 EDTTreasury 5-year auction preview: the auction should be solid
Treasury 5-year auction preview: the auction should be solid, if the 2-year FRN results are any indication. Indirect bidders have continued to underpin demand most of this year, and that should again be the case today, especialy as many sovereigns with the same 5-year maturity are much lower in yield (the German 5-year trades at -0.076%). Indirect bidders took over 60% at the last two auctions. Also the note has cheapened a bit too, though it was after comments from the moderate Fed voter Lockhart that he'd vote for a rate hike by September at the latest, and that may scare off some potential buyers. The wi has risen to 1.38%, though it's still below the 1.435% on Friday, and it would be the second richest award rate since November 2013. The note is relatively cheap on the curve, with the 5s-30s spread narrower at 109 basis points versus 112 basis points at the start of the week. Also supportive is the record cash paydown for this week's offerings, so there's lots of cash to be put to work. Month- and quarter-end, and Japanese fiscal year-end demand could also trickle down to the belly. The February auction stopped at 1.48% and garnered a 2.54 cover (2.68 average) and a 60.1% indirect bid (53.7% average). Direct bidders took 9.5% last month with primary dealers taking 27.4%.
12:35 EDTEnergy Action: NYMEX crude rallied to session highs of $48.49
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12:25 EDTTreasury Option Action: bearish positioning
Treasury Option Action: bearish positioning vs the 10-year has been the main trade of size, according to sources, in otherwise fairly tame conditions ahead of the 5-year auction later. Of note was a buyer of 7.5k May 128/127/126 put butterflies and the 127-00 strike targets a 25 bp move up in cash 10-year (2.135%), as the high yield for the year is 2.269% from the March 6 payroll swing, which roughly coincides with 126-00 on June 10s. Other smaller deals included a bearish buyer of 2k in May 124.5 puts and a bullish buyer of 3.5k in May 130 calls vs the sale of 1.75k in May 129 calls, and a bullish seller of 2k in May 127+ puts. June 10s are roughly flat near 129-025, compared to a 129-125 to 129-01 session range.
12:25 EDTFX Action: USD-JPY has been uneventful
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11:55 EDTNASDAQ just prolapsed to -1.5%
NASDAQ just prolapsed to -1.5% with wires citing ongoing sales of biotech shares. Note, the WSJ made a scathing attack on a "bubble" in biotech in today's paper, which apparently resonated with investors.
11:45 EDTTreasury's $13 B 2-year FRN reopening was solid
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11:45 EDTEuro$ interest rate futures are mixed
Euro$ interest rate futures are mixed with the lead June 2015 a half-tick higher at 99.66, while the deferreds are lower by as much at a tick or two. The rate futures have essentially been on a gradual march higher ever since last week's less hawkish FOMC statement. Just in March alone, the December 2015 contract (Lockhart alluded to September in his NY Times interview), has gone from lows of 99.12 following the February payrolls jump to highs of 99.345 highs after the FOMC. That shows a shift from an 0.88% implied 3-month rate to 0.655% vs 0.700% presently, compared to the 0.00-0.25% Fed funds target range. Playing the lift-off game, that also assumes the Fed hikes by a quarter point to 0.5%, though presumably it could go 0.25-0.50% or to just 0.25% depending on the economic signals at the time. In the meantime it does seem clear that Q1 GDP continues to be revised lower by many economists as the firm dollar and weather takes its predicted toll.
10:55 EDTU.S. equities are above lows after spillage on NASDAQ
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10:45 EDTFX Action: USD-CAD rallied to session highs
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10:40 EDTEnergy Action: Front month NYMEX crude fell to $47.60
Energy Action: Front month NYMEX crude fell to $47.60 from $48.20 following the EIA inventory data which showed a 8.2 M bbl rise in crude stocks. The street had been expecting a 4.0 M bbl increase. Meanwhile, gasoline supplies, seen down 1.5 M bbls actually fell 2.0 bbls, while distillate stocks were flat, versus expectations for a 1.5 M bbl fall. Refinery usage rose to 89.0% from 88.1%.
10:31 EDTCrude inventories for week of March 20
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10:20 EDTAtlanta Fed's moderate Lockhart in an NY Times Q&A interview
Atlanta Fed's moderate Lockhart in an NY Times Q&A interview said that he expected to vote to raise rates by September at the latest, though in his 9-years at the Fed he's never voted to raise rates. He was generally optimistic about the economy and saw 2.5-3.0% average growth ahead and gradual inflation rise to 2%. "Too much can be made of the lift-off decision itself because the really important factor is what's going to be the interest rate environment for the foreseeable future and to what extent is it going to remain accommodative, which I believe it will," he said. He also apparently gave "Atlanta Hawks" hats to Fisher and Plosser, but not himself since he couldn't find a team named "Centrists" or "Moderates." He's not 100% set on a hike by September (Fischer said "this year"), but "if analysts go beyond September, it would be because analysts were really disappointed in the stream of data that come in."
10:10 EDTTreasury 5-year auction outlook: the auction should be well subscribed
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10:04 EDTECB to raise ceiling for aid to Greek banks to over EUR71B, Bloomberg says
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09:35 EDTStocks relatively quiet, but positive, in early trading
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09:25 EDTThe U.S. durables report undershot estimates across the board
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09:15 EDTU.S. durable goods orders dropped 1.4% in February
U.S. durable goods orders dropped 1.4% in February after a 2.0% January gain (revised down from 2.8%). Weakness was broad-based. Transportation orders fell 3.5%, with orders excluding transportation down 0.4% after a 0.7% decline previously (revised from a 0.3% gain). Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft slid 1.4% lower versus January's -0.1% (revised from 0.6%). Shipments dipped 0.2% after falling 1.4% previously (revised from -1.0% originally), with nondefense capital goods shipments ex-aircraft up 0.2% versus -0.4% previously (revised from -0.3%). Inventories were up 0.3%. The inventory-shipment ratio edged up to 1.69 from 1.68. Data are much weaker than expected and should support gains in Treasuries while weighing on stocks and the dollar.
09:15 EDTConnecting dots, global inflation cycle might be turning
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09:09 EDTSenate Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs Committee to hold a hearing
The Committee holds a hearing entitled, "Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) Accountability: Focusing on Non-Bank Designations" with Secretary of the U.S. Treasury, Jack Lew on March 25 at 2 pm. Webcast Link
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