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May 25, 2012
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| 19:40 EDT |  | |
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| 19:39 EDT | | |
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| theflyonthewall.com: | Personal Income and Outlays Consumer Spending to be reported at 08:30 ET | | April Personal Income and Outlays Consumer Spending will be reported at 08:30 ET. Current consensus is 0.3% for the month :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 19:39 EDT | | |
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| theflyonthewall.com: | Employment Situation Average Hourly Earnings to be reported at 08:30 ET | | May Employment Situation Average Hourly Earnings will be reported at 08:30 ET. Current consensus is 0.2% for the month :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 19:39 EDT | | |
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| theflyonthewall.com: | Chicago PMI Business Barometer Index to be reported at 09:45 ET | | May Chicago PMI Business Barometer Index will be reported at 09:45 ET. Current consensus is 56.1 :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 19:39 EDT | | |
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| theflyonthewall.com: | ADP Employment Report employment to be reported at 08:15 ET | | May ADP Employment Report employment will be reported at 08:15 ET. Current consensus is 154,000 :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 19:39 EDT | | |
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| 16:23 EDT | | |
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| 09:56 EDT | | |
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| theflyonthewall.com: | U.S. equities are struggling to stay on their feet | | U.S. equities are struggling to stay on their feet to round out the week heading into a shortened pre-holiday Friday session. Asian shares were mixed, while the Euro Stoxx 50 fell 0.45% after Spain region Catalonia (1/5 Spain's economy) requested help on making debt payments. Hope and fear on Greece and Europe continue to comingle after louder talk of eurobonds and growth plans, paired against more open talk of a Grexit. There have also been rumors of a 1-year LTRO from the ECB or other liquidity Op to coincide with other stimulus. There's little on the U.S. calendar, with only final U. Michigan consumer sentiment for May to chew over and it is expected to be revised slightly lower. The Dow is 30-points lower, S&P sank 2-points and NASDAQ is off 2-points in pre-market action. VeriFone shares sank over 8% after lowering guidance on Q3. Paypall reached a deal with retailers to spread its phone-based payments. S&P and Nasdaq. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 08:30 EDT | | |
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| 07:55 EDT | | |
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| 07:31 EDT |  | |
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| theflyonthewall.com: | N.Y. FX Outlook: | | N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar pulled back marginally in European trade, as pre-weekend position paring set in after what was a very good week for dollar bulls. EUR-USD touched 1.2600, after again finding support into 1.2520 in London, as sterling and the dollar bloc improved as well. The U.S. calendar consists of just the final May U. of Michigan sentiment survey at 9:55 EDT. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 07:09 EDT | | |
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| 07:04 EDT |  | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | New signs of a slowdown worldwide, WSJ reports | | There are new signs of a global slowdown affecting the economic outlook. The U.S. reported that businesses were slowing their orders of long-lasting goods. Measures of business sentiment in Europe declined, and reports from purchasing managers at manufacturers worldwide turned down, reports the Wall Street Journal.Reference Link :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 06:55 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | European stocks have given back earlier gains, but there remains a degree of optimism |
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| 06:32 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | ISE Sentiment Index-ISEE closed at 83; 10-day moving average is 93 | | :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 06:32 EDT | | |
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| 05:10 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Oil benefited from steadier markets and risk appetite | | Oil benefited from steadier markets and risk appetite, which lifted Nymex crude over $91 bbl after it bottomed out under $90 bbl on Thursday. However, the outlook for oil is still negative due to the challenging global growth outlook, a persistent build up in U.S. inventories and reduced impact from Middle Eastern politics as the market is currently well supplied. Political commentators believe that this week's talks between IAEA and Iran may be a ploy to buy time for its nuclear programme and discounted the prospects for any long standing change in the tone between the West and Iran. This may have helped the short term tone, along with a rebalancing of speculative positioning, which reflected some of the corrective action seen in other markets, but does not represent a shift in underlying sentiment and fund managers continue to look for further downside. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 04:01 EDT | | |
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| 01:15 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Asian stocks hit 2012 lows | | Asian stocks hit 2012 lows as the eurozone crisis and worries over global growth kept investors sidelined. Stocks started on a better footing after a late Wall Street rally, which followed a "dead cat bounce" in Europe, but there was no confidence to take on risk into the weekend. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was around 0.5% lower and mirrored losses in Australia, Hong Kong and China. The Nikkei was up 0.2% ahead of the Tokyo close due to good demand for defensive stocks like pharmaceuticals and food, as well as evidence of bargain hunting, but it still posted it longest run of weekly losses in 20-years and has dropped 16.5% since hitting a one-year high on March-27. The Kospi also bucked the trend and gained around 0.5% amid bargain hunting by domestic and retail investors via petrochemical stocks, which offset more supply from foreign investors that were net sellers for the 18th consecutive session. Meanwhile, a China state researcher said the sharp slowdown has aroused attention for policymakers, but the general direction of macro control is unchanged. :theflyonthewall.com |
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May 24, 2012
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| 20:20 EDT | | |
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| 19:32 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | April Consumer Credit to be released at 15:00 ET | | :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 16:33 EDT | | |
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| 16:33 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Fed Balance Sheet Total Assets data reported | | Week of 5/23 Fed Balance Sheet Total Assets at $8.5B :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 16:32 EDT | | |
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| 16:16 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Quarterly Services Survey to be released at 10:00 ET | | :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 15:31 EDT | | |
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| 15:30 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Monti says majority of leaders at summit backed euro bonds, Bloomberg reports |
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| 15:10 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Treasury Closing Summary: | | Treasury Closing Summary: The bond market to a step back from record levels on Thursday after a "deceased feline" bounce on European equities, even though that failed to translate into gains either in Asian or U.S. stocks. Claims and durables data in the U.S. was pretty muted, while German Ifo and Eurozone PMIs were dreadful, though German GDP rose. But the mixed economic, political and fiscal pictures continued to cloud market judgment and rational behavior. Rumored clandestine SNB interventions on EUR-CHF also spoke to tension bubbling beneath the surface on the euro, as the Swiss bank continues to wrestle with the strength of its currency amid volatility on EMU and Greece. Corp and sovereign supply also appeared to conspire to keep the bond market off balance. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 13:57 EDT | | |
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| 13:30 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Treasury Action: yields remain elevated | | Treasury Action: yields remain elevated in the wake of the rather average results on the 7-year auction heading toward the close, though equities have extended declines somewhat which may help cap yields for now. With a shortened session tomorrow ahead of the long holiday weekend, this would seem to favor range trade from here. Sources also continue to report some bullish "put selling" on Jul 10-year futures, with sales of 5k in the 132 "put strike" on the day. The T-note yield has stalled under 1.78% after bouncing from 1.71% in early trade. The 2s-10s spread has widened out to +147 bp. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 13:15 EDT | | |
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| 13:15 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | NY Fed dove Dudley is playing coy with QE3 | | NY Fed dove Dudley is playing coy with QE3 suggesting that costs of doing so would outweigh benefits if economic slack declines, but benefits would outweigh costs if jobs gains stalled and deflation risks materially increased (i.e. no answer). If undertaken, QE3 options would include more purchases of bonds or MBS, and more bond durations extensions. He would consider tightening sooner than expected if growth prospects materially improved medium-term or there was a genuine threat to inflation medium-term. The first such step would be to "bring in the later-2014" tightening guidance, though he expects this to remain in place with growth "gradually strengthening" over the next few years. Dudley sees the main downside risks as Europe and the "fiscal cliff" in the U.S. He sees inflation moderating to near the 2% target due to slack in the economy. He also favors in-depth analysis of the economic conditions and policy, rather than a mechanistic rule-based framework. Overall, these are similar statements to his CNBC interview earlier, though still pretty balanced and cautious over the growth outlook. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 13:03 EDT | | |
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| 12:40 EDT | | |
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| 12:03 EDT | | |
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| 11:33 EDT | | |
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| 11:05 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Treasury announced a $57 B 3- and 6-month bill auction for Tuesday | | Treasury announced a $57 B 3- and 6-month bill auction for Tuesday and a $25 B 52-week bill for Wednesday. The size of the shorter bills is unchanged from recent weeks with a $30 B 3-month trance and $27 B on the 6-month. The 52-week volume was trimmed by $1 B from the $26 B that's been sold since February. Supply is light with only bills on tap in the upcoming holiday abbreviated week. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 11:05 EDT | | |
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| 10:50 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Treasury 7-year auction outlook: | | Treasury 7-year auction outlook: concession building ahead of this afternoon's $29 B offering has pushed up the when issued yield 3 bps to 1.21%. That's still going to be a record low award rate, however (prior record would be April's 1.347%). A new nadir in yesterday's 5-year auction limited demand somewhat (results were more average compared to very strong for the prior day's 2-year sale). Sources reported better selling across the curve overnight, perhaps in part on profit taking, position adjusting after several issues neared record territory. Last month's auction saw near average results with a 2.83 cover and a 39.6% indirect. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 10:30 EDT | | |
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| 10:25 EDT | | |
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| 10:07 EDT | | |
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| 09:50 EDT | | |
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| 09:00 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | U.S. durable orders rebounded a modest 0.2% | | U.S. durable orders rebounded a modest 0.2% in April after a revised 3.7% decline in March (revised from -3.9%). Excluding transportation, orders dropped 0.6% after falling 0.8% previously (revised from -1.3%). Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft declined 1.9%, a second straight drop. Shipments rose 0.7%. Inventories edged up 0.3%. The inventory to shipment ratio was steady at 1.64. Though headline orders were well below expectations, the volatility in this data will limit the markets' response. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 09:00 EDT | | |
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| 08:40 EDT | | |
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| 08:40 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Jobless Claims 4-week Moving Average data reported | | Week of 5/19 Jobless Claims 4-week Moving Average at 370.00K :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 08:40 EDT | | |
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| 08:34 EDT | | |
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| 08:32 EDT | | |
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| 08:31 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Durable Goods Orders data reported | | April Durable Goods Orders up 0.2% vs. consensus of 0.5% for the month :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 08:31 EDT | | |
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| 08:15 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | U.S. weekly jobless claims preview: | | U.S. weekly jobless claims preview: claims for the week ended May-19 are expected to remain flat at 370k (median 367k). The 370k claims reading in the BLS survey week of May was unchanged following last week's revised 2k rise to 370k (was 367k), hence sustained the big 24k late-April plunge that convincingly reversed the three-week Easter-boost to the 388k-392k range. Our May nonfarm payroll forecast sits at a 170k rise, which outpaces the surprisingly low 115k April mark. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 08:15 EDT | | |
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| 07:45 EDT | | |
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| 07:26 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Futures higher in early trading | | U.S. equity futures are rising in early trading as the market looks to follow through on yesterday's late day rally. Although the market ended the day slightly lower, the futures are suggesting a positive opening. The action comes despite weaker economic data from both Europe and China. Investors will be awaiting the release of the durable goods report and jobless claims data, which are due out at 8:30 am ET. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 07:10 EDT | | |
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| 06:52 EDT | | |
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| 04:55 EDT | | |
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| 01:50 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Asian stocks were mixed | | Asian stocks were mixed, yet interest was low overall after the informal EU meeting highlighted the lack of cohesion on how to deal with the eurozone crisis. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index ex Japan was close to flat. Japan's Nikkei gained 0.30% on bargain hunting in very low volume and the Kospi rallied 0.17%. The ASX was down 0.17% after China's flash PMI data fell in May as the slowdown there gained momentum. As a result, the Hang Seng was 0.6% lower and the SSEC lost 0.3% as domestic investors shrugged off more policy rhetoric from China. :theflyonthewall.com |
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May 23, 2012
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| 19:08 EDT | | |
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| 18:31 EDT | | |
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| 16:43 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Week of 6/1 EIA Petroleum Status Report to be released at 10:30 ET | | :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 14:55 EDT | | |
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| 14:35 EDT | | |
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| 13:58 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Market lower but off its worst levels | | Each of the major equity indices remains deep in negative territory but off its worst levels of the session. The Dow is the biggest loser, down more than 1.0%. Declining issues are ahead of advancing issues by more than 3:1, while down volume is ahead of up volume by 4:1. Crude oil prices continue their decline, down more than 2.5%, while gold prices are down 2.1%. The Dow is down 134 points, the Nasdaq is down 21 points, and the S&P is down 12 points. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 13:25 EDT | | |
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| 12:40 EDT | | |
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| 11:30 EDT | | |
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| 11:25 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Euro$ interest rate options: some large spread trades | | Euro$ interest rate options: some large spread trades have been reported, with one shop trading 30k in Jul 2012 90/92 "put spreads" vs 95/96 covered "call spreads." Earlier there was a purchase of 5k in 00.625 "calls" on Sep 2012s and purchase of 5k in 95 covered "straddles" on Jul 2012s, according to sources. The Sep 2012 contract is off 2.5-ticks at 99.415 and still falling as credit contagion spreads via the eurozone. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 11:15 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Oil Action: NYMEX crude stayed weak after the EIA inventory data | | Oil Action: NYMEX crude stayed weak after the EIA inventory data, where crude stocks rose 900k bbls, versus a 0.5 M bbl forecast. Gasoline supplies fell 3.3 M bbls, much larger than the 0.7 M bbl expectations, while distillate stocks were down 300k bbls, in line with forecasts. Front month crude is down $1.18/bbl at $90.67, though European concerns and a lack of risk appetite continue to drive the contract. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 11:15 EDT | | |
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| 10:30 EDT | | |
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| 10:10 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Growth in developing East Asia and Pacific strong but slowing, World Bank says |
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| 10:10 EDT | | |
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| 10:10 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Treasury Action: yields found a temporary floor | | Treasury Action: yields found a temporary floor in the wake of the larger than expected bounce in new home sales, along with upward back revisions, which have placed a more positive spin to the sector. But yields in Europe have continued to decline and the attendent equity bounce was not very dramatic. The 10-year yield had been probing lower to 1.72% before the declines were arrested, well off yesterday's highs over 1.80%. The 2s-10s spread has narrowed to +144 bp after probing +150 bp on Tues. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 10:06 EDT | | |
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| 10:05 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | FHFA House Price Index Y/Y change data reported | | March FHFA House Price Index Y/Y change up 2.7% for the year :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 10:05 EDT | | |
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| 10:02 EDT | | |
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| 09:45 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | U.S. New Home Sales Preview | | U.S. New Home Sales Preview: new home sales in April are expected to show a 0.6% increase to a 330k pace (median 335k) from 328k in March. This compares to Tuesday's release on existing home sales for April, which was slightly stronger than expected with a 3.4% increase to 4.620 M for the month. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 09:45 EDT | | |
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| 09:10 EDT | | |
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| 08:20 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Fedspeak from Minneapolis hawk Kocherlakota | | Fedspeak from Minneapolis hawk Kocherlakota will focus on "Monetary Policy Transparency: Changes and Challenges" from South Dakota at 14 ET. Kocherlakota has been concerned recently that the U.S. may be reaching full employment and that rising inflation will derail its current low rate guidance through late-2014. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 08:18 EDT |  | |
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| 08:05 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | U.S. MBA mortgage market index rose 3.8% | | U.S. MBA mortgage market index rose 3.8% in data released earlier, while the purchase index sank 3.0% and the refinance index rose 5.6% for the week ended May-18. Market yields plunged to near-record lows with the 10-year dropping to 1.69% on Thursday amid stress in Europe and indigestion over the Facebook IPO. That drove the 30-year fixed rate down 3 more basis points to a survey low of 3.93%. While purchases lagged in the survey, refi activity kicked up again as the MBA noted: "Mortgage rates again dipped to new record lows in the survey, which spurred more borrowers back into the refinance market." Housing data for April has so far come in on the firmer side, supported by low rates, with existing home sales up 3.4% yesterday and new home sales expected to rise 0.6% later this session, while last week housing starts rose 2.6%. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 07:31 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Greece concerns weigh on futures | | Stock futures are pointing to another lower open as concerns mount over Greece and its inability to put together a plan to rescue itself from its fiscal woes. Leaders of the 27 E.U. countries will meet today to discuss ways of dealing with Greece's problems, and to attempt to combat the region's economic woes. Meanwhile, American investors are awaiting new data on housing and energy, which will be released after the market opens. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 07:30 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | FX Action: Pressure on USD-JPY's downside may intensify | | FX Action: Pressure on USD-JPY's downside may intensify as the BoJ opted to wait on policy until July when it knows the impact of the Greek election. BoJ's Shirakawa said its powerful easing stance remained, but specs sold USD-JPY and the crosses, which were exacerbated by risk aversion. USD-JPY support is noted at 79.20-30 and 79.00 from real money, though analysts wouldn't be surprised to hear of stealth bids. However, the Japanese authorities may have their work cut if EUR-JPY sustains a break of 100.00, where option barriers are noted and AUD-JPY clears away 77.00. Large USD-JPY stops are noted under 79.00 and 78.80, while the 200-dma around 78.50 is still a viable target. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 07:30 EDT | | |
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| 06:27 EDT | | |
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| 04:20 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | BoJ's Shirakawa said no change to "powerful easing stance" | | BoJ's Shirakawa said no change to "powerful easing stance" in his post-BoJ rate announcement press conference. He said there were big demerits to further rate cuts, including cutting the interest paid on excess reserves. He said it need to measure the effects of easing by interest rates not the size of the monetary base. He did not think there was an immediate risk of BoJ failing to meet its asset buying target and said unsuccessful bonds buys were a result of low yields and auctions show that the effects of easing are broadening. Shirakawa noted that the European debt crisis is Japan's biggest risk via trade, a strengthening currency and money markets. USD-JPY edged off early European lows of 79.45 to trade back to 79.60, but risk aversion is keep JPY supported via JPY cross selling. AUD-JPY may drive interest in the coming two session amid large Uridashi redemptions and stops under 77.50 and 77.00 could be vulnerable. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 01:45 EDT | | |
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| 01:00 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | FX Action: USD-JPY turned away from 80.00 | | FX Action: USD-JPY turned away from 80.00 after starting the session on a firmer footing following yesterday's decision by Fitch to downgrade Japan's rating by two notches to A+. It drifted into 79.80 ahead of the BoJ decision and extended towards 79.50 after it left policy unchanged, though this was broadly in line with expectations. The JPY crosses also eased, with EUR-JPY topping out around 101.50 and trading back below 101.00, while AUD-JPY pulled back from 78.40 to the 77.50 region, which was a five-month low. There are expectation of increased AUD-JPY supply this week amid relatively large redemptions this week, which could see stops lower down come under threat. Elsewhere, Japan Finance Minister Azumi said he expects the BoJ to continue to act appropriately and the BoJ reiterated that ending inflation was still a priority. In other news, Japan's Mazda is in talks with Fiat on a potential business tie-up. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 00:50 EDT | | |
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May 22, 2012
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| 20:15 EDT | | |
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| 16:38 EDT | | |
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| 15:43 EDT | | |
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| 14:40 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Canada Leading Indicator Preview | | Canada Leading Indicator Preview: Analysts expect the leading indicator, due out Wednesday, to rise 0.3% in April (median same at +0.3%) following 0.4% gain in March. The March gain was the ninth straight months that leaders advanced, consistent with ongoing momentum in Canada's economy. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 14:40 EDT | | |
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| 14:35 EDT | | |
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| 14:23 EDT | | |
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| 14:20 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Fed Board discount rate meeting minutes from April 2 and 23 | | Fed Board discount rate meeting minutes from April 2 and 23 showed no change in rate postures of the 12 District Banks. Ten continued to argue for no change to the current 0.75% discount rate. The Boston Fed argued for a 25 bp reduction to a 0.5% rate, while KC argued for a a 25 bp hike to 1%. At the April 23 meeting, the directors noted further improvement in economic activity and generally saw incoming consumer spending data a little more robust that had been expected. But they cautioned the strength could be coming from unseasonably warm weather. Strength was also noted in agriculture and auto sales. Some improvement was also reported in housing, albeit from low levels. Employment had picked up, but the unemployment rate remained elevated. Against this backdrop, most directors voted to maintain the existing rate. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 14:15 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | U.S. New Home Sales Preview | | U.S. New Home Sales Preview: Wednesday's report on new home sales in April is expected to show a 0.6% increase to a 330k (median 335k) pace from 328k in March. This compares to today's release on existing home sales for April which was slightly stronger than expected with a 3.4% increase to 4.620 M for the month. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 14:10 EDT | | |
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| theflyonthewall.com: | U.S. corporate debt: ADB priced a $1.25 B 3-year issue | | U.S. corporate debt: ADB priced a $1.25 B 3-year issue at 16 bp under swaps, in line with size and price guidance. In addition, several multi-tranchers are pending including a 2-trancher from Blackrock of 3- and 10-year maturities, a 3-trancher from Caterpillar of 3s, 5s and 10s, and a 2-trancher by Covidien of 3- and 10-year legs. Other investment grade deals are on tap from Smiths Group and Swedish Export Agency. A smattering of small high yield offerings are pending as well, but shouldn't crowd the 2-year auction results much today. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 13:05 EDT | | |
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| 13:02 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Week of 6/2 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales to be released at 07:45 ET | | :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 11:45 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Treasury's $30 B 4-week bill auction was strong | | Treasury's $30 B 4-week bill auction was strong. The bill was awarded at 0.065%, the same as the bid deadline and 1 bp richer than the 0.075% last week. Bids totaled $148.3 B for a 4.95 cover, well up on last week's 4.63 and the 4.52 average. Indirects took 13.3% compared to 15.1%. The latter continues the trend of waning overseas demand. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 11:25 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Egan Jones cuts rating on Spain to BB- from BB+, CNBC reports | | :theflyonthewall.com |
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| theflyonthewall.com: | NY Fed Twist: the Fed is selling between $8 B and $8.75 B in short dated notes |
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| 10:20 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | U.S. existing home sales partly closed the gap | | U.S. existing home sales partly closed the gap to the stronger pending home sales up-trend with a 3.4% April rise to a 4.620 M clip, following rates of 4.470 (was 4.480) M in March. The 7.9% seven-month existing home sales rise sits well short of the 16.7% six-month pending home sales climb through March. The median price popped 7.6% to $177,400 in April from $164,800 (was $163,800) in March with help from a shift in the compositional mix of sales. Analysts still expect 2.5% headline GDP growth in Q2, following a downward Q1 GDP growth bump to 1.8% from 2.2%, while real residential construction posts 15% Q2 growth that follows a reported 19.0% Q1 clip. For other April reports, analysts expect a 0.6% rise in new home sales to a 330k rate, and a 0.7% April construction spending rise that roughly tracks the 0.4% April rise in construction hours-worked. Last week's housing starts report revealed a 2.6% April rise for starts and a 7.0% drop for permits to similar respective rates of 717k and 715k. The existing home sales data generally continue to underperform the recovery in the new home market, though the trend is upward. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 10:10 EDT | | |
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| 10:10 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | FX Action: The dollar dipped slightly against the euro after the 10:00 EDT data |
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| 10:10 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Treasury Action: yields remained underpinned | | Treasury Action: yields remained underpinned near highs following the firmer than expected reading on Apr existing home sales. Having already backed up to the 1.80% area from Monday lows near 1.72%, the T-note pushed through on the firm data following Asian selling overnight and the weight of upcoming supply, while stocks are maintaining a shallow gain. The 2s-10s spread has bounced 5-6 bp to +150 bp from Monday's close. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 10:07 EDT | | |
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| theflyonthewall.com: | Treasury 2-year auction outlook: | | Treasury 2-year auction outlook: Treasury auctions $35 B in new notes this afternoon. The wi has cheapened slightly to 0.30%, the top end of its recent range. The offering should go pretty well at this level given the Fed's zero rate posture, and as this would be the 3rd cheapest rate since last July's 0.417%. The ongoing eurozone mess should keep a defensive, safety bet in the note. The April sale was awarded at 0.27% and saw a better than average 3.76 cover (3.57 average) and a 32.1% indirect (32.3% average). :theflyonthewall.com |
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| theflyonthewall.com: | U.S. equities rebounded into the green | | U.S. equities rebounded into the green ahead of tomorrow's summit in Europe amid hopes for some new growth initiatives, though a downgrade on Japan's sovereign credit rating had briefly weighed on sentiment overnight along with downgraded eurozone growth projections from the OECD. Yet Asian shares recovered with the N-225 up 1.1% after China promised more growth schemes itself and the Euro Stoxx 50 is 1.35% firmer. The Dow is 4-points higher, S&P rose 1-point and NASDAQ is 4-points firmer in pre-market trade. Best Buy reported earnings gains of 72 cents/ps, better than expected, and saw its shares rally nearly 8%, while Medtronic also beat and rallied over 2.0%. Barclays Bank will reportedly be divesting from its $6.1 B stake in Blackrock of the U.S. NAR existing home sales are due next and expected to bounce 2.7%. S&P and Nasdaq. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 08:35 EDT | | |
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| theflyonthewall.com: | FX Action: Canadian traders return from a long weekend | | FX Action: Canadian traders return from a long weekend to find USD-CAD fairly close to where they left it Friday. The pairing is currently near 1.0160, after trading a narrow overnight range. With nothing on the Canadian calendar, and a light U.S. offering, focus will likely be on commodities and equities, though currently U.S. futures are near flat, as are oil prices. Trade could remain quiet on Tuesday, as players eye Wednesday's informal EU meeting. USD-CAD bids are noted from 1.0150, with option related sellers seen into 1.0200. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 08:00 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Fed funds opened at 0.17% | | Fed funds opened at 0.17% after a 0.15% close on Monday. The rate ranged from 0.07% to 0.375% yesterday with a 0.16% effective. Interbank borrowing rates were mostly flat at today's Libor fixing. The overnight dollar Libor rate was steady at 0.15550%. The 1-week, 3-month, and 12-month rates were unchanged at 0.19160%, 0.46685%, and 1.06920%, respectively. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| theflyonthewall.com: | Two experts say Greece unlikely to leave euro zone, Washington Post says | | Even if Greece's anti-bailout party, Syriza, wins the country's elections, Greece is unlikely to leave the euro zone completely, two experts believe, according to The Washington Post. Jacob Funk Kirkegaard of the Peterson Institute for International Economics believes that in a worst-case scenario, Athens would temporarily stop paying its debts to the rest of Europe, but keep using the euro, the newspaper reported. Meanwhile, George Washington University political science professor Henry Farrell contends that Germany would cave into Greece's demands in order to keep the euro zone intact, the newspaper adds. Reference Link :theflyonthewall.com |
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| theflyonthewall.com: | The VSTOXX Index recently down 0.82 to 30.20 | | :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 06:30 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | On The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for May 22 | | Globex S&P futures are recently down 3.00 from previous day's SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 1.10%, DAX 30 up 0.61%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $91.96, copper down 0.47% and gold is at $1576 an ounce. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 06:18 EDT | | |
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| theflyonthewall.com: | FX Action: JPY fell after Fitch downgraded Japan to A+ | | FX Action: JPY fell after Fitch downgraded Japan to A+ outlook negative due to growing risks to Japan sovereign credit profile as a result of high and rising public debt ratios. USD-JPY spiked from 79.60 towards 79.85, though had aleady been on the front foot amid tentative demand for the JPY crosses from the European open. EUR-JPY moved up from 101.45 to trade just shy of 102.00 offers, while AUD-JPY rallied from 78.50 to 79.00. JPY price action has turned choppy over the last few session amid short term repositioning into tomorrow's BoJ policy decision and the informal EU summit. Japanese Finance Minister Azumi said he believed the BoJ would take the government's views into consideration and take appropriate and sufficient steps at the appropriate time. Last week, sources close to the BoJ said it thought waiting until after the Greek election and the next FOMC meeting in June was appropriate for now. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 04:40 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Nowegian Q1 GDP beat market and Norges Bank forecasts, but shouldn't shift prevailing policy stance | | Nowegian Q1 GDP beat market and Norges Bank forecasts, but shouldn't shift prevailing policy stance. Norwway's Q1 GDP beat expectations at +1.1% q/q for the headline non-oil figure (the Reuters median was for +0.9%), while the total GDP outcome was +1.4% q/q. The respective figures for Q4 data were revised up to +0.6% q/q, from 0.5%, and to +0.8% q/q, from 0.6%. The outcome is above the Norges Bank's projections, which has prompted a response both FX and Norwegian interest rate markets. The Norges Bank's May-10 statement had, however, noted signs that activity in the economy were slightly higher than had been expected, but this is offset by an emphasis on "new tensions" in international financial markets and signalled that the key policy rate will remain at 1.5% level over the coming year. Analysts therefore don't expect that the Q1 GDP outcome will materially affect the Norges Bank's stance, and much will depend on the evolution of the eurozone crisis and its impact on European and global growth. The next policy review and Monetary Policy Report is on June-20. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 01:35 EDT | | |
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| theflyonthewall.com: | FX Action: JPY was a touch easier | | FX Action: JPY was a touch easier, yet overall remained deep inside the recent range. A broad rise in regional stock markets did not generate much in the way of momentum and resulted in the second session of consolidation. Japan Finance Minister Azumi kept the pressure on the BoJ as its two-day policy meeting got underway. He believed the BoJ will take the appropriate steps, adding that both the governemt and the Bank hold a similar view on the economy. USD-JPY traded just under yesterday's 79.45 highs, where offers are noted ahead of both stops and larger sell-interest higher up, which includes technical resistance from 79.75 and just ahead of 80.00. On the downside, heavy Japanese support is noted from 79.00, with options also tipped, though a steady hand from the BoJ tomorrow could see increased downside pressure and the 200-dma around 78.50 come into play. :theflyonthewall.com |
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May 21, 2012
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| 16:45 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | April Factory Orders to be released at 10:00 ET | | :theflyonthewall.com |
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| theflyonthewall.com: | U.S. Existing Home Sales Preview | | U.S. Existing Home Sales Preview: April existing home sales will be released Tuesday and are expected to show a headline increase of 2.7% to a 4.600 M (median 4.610 M) level from 4.480 M in March. Pricing data accompanying the report is expected to show a 0.1% increase for the median home price over the March figure of $163,800. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 14:18 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Internals confirm strong market | | Each of the major equity indices remains higher and within striking distance of session highs. The Nasdaq is the biggest winner, up more than 1.8%. Advancing stocks are well ahead of declining stocks by more than 4:1 while up volume is ahead of down volume by 3:1. Crude oil prices are higher by 0.25%but gold is lower by 0.2%. The Dow is up 84 points, the Nasdaq is up 51 points and the S&P is up 14 points. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 13:50 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | U.S. 10-year technicals: corrective downticks from the May 17 peak | | U.S. 10-year technicals: corrective downticks from the May 17 peak at 100-182 (1.688%), but these were held at by ahead of May 17 congestion at 99-25 (1.798%). A successful defense of 99-25 should sponsor another rally targeting a retest of the Sep 2011 high at 100-24 (1.669%) or even a 101-10 (1.607%) measured objective before running into difficulty. Though analysts're already at nosebleed levels, it would take a violation of the May 16 low at 99-10+ (1.824%) to signal a top is already in place. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 12:40 EDT | | |
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| theflyonthewall.com: | U.S. corporate debt: AIG has a 10-year issue pending | | U.S. corporate debt: AIG has a 10-year issue pending in the investment grade sector, along with a 3-year from IADB, a $400 M 10-year from Energizer and a $300 M 10-year by Smiths Group. Several high yield offerings are pending from AGS, Carrols, Generac, HudBay, NGPL, OPI and other smaller deals in the intermediate sector. There still isn't much yet on the corporate docket to crowd the Treasury coupon series this week, though the calendar could yet build. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 11:30 EDT | | |
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| 11:05 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Treasury announced a $30 B 4-week bill auction for Tuesday | | Treasury announced a $30 B 4-week bill auction for Tuesday. This joins today's $57 B 3- and 6-month bill sale and the $99 B in coupons on tap this week, bringing total offerings to $186 B. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 11:05 EDT | | |
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| 10:15 EDT | | |
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| 09:05 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | FX Action: USD-CAD has moved higher | | FX Action: USD-CAD has moved higher as oil and equity prices cut back gains. The pairing posted new four month highs near 1.0235, though conditions are thin, as Canada is out on Victoria Day holiday. There is no U.S. data to drive prices, so focus will be on the risk backdrop. This said, standing offers are noted from 1.0250. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 08:30 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Atlanta Fed's Lockhart said " analysts're in a phase where sustained monetary accommodation is warranted | | Atlanta Fed's Lockhart said " analysts're in a phase where sustained monetary accommodation is warranted to keep the U.S. recovery going," in a speech earlier from Tokyo. His speech largely tried to answer two questions -- 1) what more can be done, and 2) are there limits to what U.S. monetary policy can accomplish. As to the limits, he placed policy actions under three headings, interest rates, balance sheet, and communications. He believes all three worked pretty well. He also suggested it's not appropriate to rule out further long term asset purchases (LASPs), but doesn't believe they are needed currently -- "QE3 will work under the right circumstances. But I don't believe such circumstances prevail at this time." :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 07:55 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Fed funds opened at 0.17% | | Fed funds opened at 0.17% after a 0.28% close last Friday. The rate ranged from 0.08% to 0.375% on Friday with a 0.16% effective. Interbank borrowing rates were mostly higher at today's Libor fixing. The overnight dollar Libor rate edged up to 0.15550% compared to Friday's 0.15500%. The 1-week rose to 0.19160% versus 0.19110% previously. The 3-month rate was flat at 0.466850%, while the 12-month rate increased to 1.06920% from 1.06895%. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 07:45 EDT | | |
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| 07:40 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | USD-JPY showed less sensitivity to Japanese jawboning | | USD-JPY showed less sensitivity to Japanese jawboning despite more MoF warnings on yen action. USD-JPY barely moved on the latest remarks and is close to 79.25 after it met offers ahead of 79.50 earlier, leaving it a short distance from recent lows around 79.00. Wednesday's BoJ meeting will be be pivotal, though it is not thought to be keen on providing more stimulus ahead of Greek elections and the next FOMC rate decision in June. The BoJ will be under government pressure to act, but Shirakawa has warned on the limitations of monetary policy. A steady policy hand could see a move under the 200-dma around 78.50, though talk of stealth bids should rise on further losses. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 07:32 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Futures pointing to an early bounce | | U.S. equity futures are indicating that the market will rebound from last week's sell-off. The markets have fallen for the last two weeks, and last week they suffered their worst losses of the year. Today's early strength is being attributed to the desire expressed by world leaders during the G8 meetings over the weekend for Greece to remain in the euro zone. Investors in the U.S. will be watching the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for clues about the health of our own economy. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 07:30 EDT | | |
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| 07:24 EDT | | |
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| 06:28 EDT | | |
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| theflyonthewall.com: | The VSTOXX Index recently down 0.06 to 33.05 | | :theflyonthewall.com |
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May 20, 2012
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| 09:46 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Hedge-fund manager Dalio sees 30% chance Europe stumbles badly, Barron's says |
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May 18, 2012
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| 19:24 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Consumer Sentiment Index to be reported at 09:55 ET | | May Consumer Sentiment Index will be reported at 09:55 ET. Current consensus is 77.8 :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 19:24 EDT | | |
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| 19:40 EDT | | |
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| theflyonthewall.com: | ISM Mfg Index to be reported at 10:00 ET | | May ISM Mfg Index will be reported at 10:00 ET. Current consensus is 54.0 :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 16:30 EDT | | |
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| 19:39 EDT | | |
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| 11:50 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Facebook started trading around $42 | | Facebook started trading around $42, in line with indicative pricing, but has since pulled back toward $41, still above the $38 IPO price. The broader market has leaked lower after the offering, dipping into negative territory. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 11:10 EDT | | |
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| theflyonthewall.com: | FX Action: USD-JPY met good Japanese support throughout | | FX Action: USD-JPY met good Japanese support throughout after it lurched to 79.12 lows in Asia amid heavy deleveraging by Japanese retail names via the crosses and after the dollar broke down on Thursday amid weaker U.S. data and reduced expectations of BoJ policy stimulus next week. Japanese clearers placed very large bids from 79.00, though it did not trade much below 79.20 since the Asian afternoon. Overnight, Japanese Finance Minister Azumi also reminded markets that Japan would not tolerate one-side moves driven by speculation and this helped fueled a recovery to 79.45, aided by an improved tone via the JPY crosses as the European morning progressed. EUR-JPY made an early run on 100.00 barriers, but stopped at 100.14 and reversed to 101.00, while AUD-JPY was squeezed from 77.58 lows towards 78.50. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 07:35 EDT | | |
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| 06:49 EDT | | |
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| theflyonthewall.com: | ISE Sentiment Index-ISEE closed at 89; 10-day moving average is 86 | | :theflyonthewall.com |
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| theflyonthewall.com: | Week of 5/21 Money Supply to be released at 16:30 ET | | :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 01:55 EDT | | |
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| 01:35 EDT | | |
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| 01:30 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Chinese home prices fell for a second month | | Chinese home prices fell for a second month in April from a year earlier. Average home prices in China's 70 major cities fell 1.2% in April from a year earlier, after a fall of 0.7% in March, according to Reuters calculations of data published by the National Bureau of Statistics. Prices were down 0.3% month-on-month, a seventh consecutive monthly decline. Meanwhile, new home prices fell in 46 of the 70 cities monitored by the NBS in April from a year earlier, and also fell in 43 cities in month-on-month terms. The government has reiterated that it would keep clamping down on property speculation, while supporting owner-occupier demand in a bid to curb social discontent. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 01:10 EDT | | |
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May 17, 2012
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| 19:51 EDT | | |
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| 16:33 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Money Supply M2 Weekly Change data reported | | Week of 5/7 Money Supply M2 Weekly Change at -$1.7B :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 16:33 EDT | | |
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| 16:33 EDT | | |
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| 16:32 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Moody's cuts 16 Spanish banks and Santander UK PLC, Bloomberg says | | :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 16:06 EDT | | |
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| 14:45 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Canada CPI Preview | | Canada CPI Preview: Analysts expect the CPI, due out Friday, to hold steady at a 1.9% y/y in April (median same at 1.9%) following the identical clip in March. An 0.3% m/m gain in expected (median same) after the 0.4% gains seen from January to March. The core CPI is seen rising 0.2% m/m after the 0.3% March rise, leaving a 1.9% y/y pace in April (median +1.8%) that matches March's rate. Overall, an as expected CPI report would leave inflation running nearly in-line with BoC's upgraded inflation forecasts, underpinning projections that the BoC is ramping up to eventual rate hikes. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 14:21 EDT | | |
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| 13:51 EDT | | |
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| 13:36 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Greece Issuer Default Ratings downgraded to CCC by Fitch | | Fitch downgraded Greece's Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings to 'CCC' from 'B-', citing heightened risk that Greece may not be able to sustain its membership of Economic and Monetary Union. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 13:33 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | French minister: France won't ratify fiscal pact without changes, Telegraph says | | The French finance minister warned that France won't ratify the E.U.'s fiscal austerity pact unless it's revised to include growth measures, according to The Telegraph. Meanwhile, Germany's finance minister called for the establishment of a "political union" of the E.U., with a president and common policies. Reference Link :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 19:39 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Jobless Claims to be reported at 08:30 ET | | Week of 5/26 Jobless Claims will be reported at 08:30 ET. Current consensus is 370K :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 13:03 EDT | | |
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| 12:55 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Fed hawk Bullard said the recession scare has eased | | Fed hawk Bullard said the recession scare has eased, in comments to the Louisville Rotary. So far the economy has been better than expected during the first half of the year, while inflation has been a little above target. He reiterated the need to bring the fiscal situation under control. He remains concerned the ultra-easy monetary policy could be creating another asset bubble. He doesn't anticipate a financial meltdown in the EU, nor does he think a European recession will drag the U.S. economy into contraction. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 12:50 EDT | | |
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| 11:05 EDT | | |
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| 11:05 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Treasury announced a $99 B 3-pronged package of note auctions | | Treasury announced a $99 B 3-pronged package of note auctions for next week, including $35 B in 2s (Tuesday), $35 B in 5s (Wednesday), and $29 B in 7s (Thursday). The debt managers also announced $57 B in 3- and 6-month bills for Monday. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 10:10 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | FX Action: The dollar fell after the disappointing Philly Fed index outcome | | FX Action: The dollar fell after the disappointing Philly Fed index outcome. USD-JPY dipped toward 79.80 from near 80.20, while EUR-USD reclaimed the 1.2700 handle. Stocks headed lower, as Treasury yields softened as well. While the data are regional, they do not bode well for economic expansion. Leading indicators meanwhile were softer than expected. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 10:10 EDT | | |
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| 10:05 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Market slides further following disappointing data | | Stock futures remained around fair value for most of the pre-market trading session and had little reaction to the weekly jobless claims data. The averages opened essentially flat but have moved lower following the leading economic indicators report and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey. The leading economic indicators declined 0.1%, versus an expected increase of 0.1%, while the Philly Fed survey had a reading of -5.8, versus expectations for a reading of +10.0. About a half hour into trading, the Dow is down 68 points, the Nasdaq is down 19 points and the S&P is down 8 points. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 10:01 EDT | | |
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| 09:55 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | U.S. Leading Indicators preview | | U.S. Leading Indicators preview: the index is expected to dip 0.2% (median 0.1%) after a 0.3% increase in May. This would be the first decline since September's 0.5% drop. The building permits component is expected to weigh on the index and more than offset an increase in the interest rate spread. for more. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 09:50 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | FX Action: USD-JPY traded just short of 80.10 | | FX Action: USD-JPY traded just short of 80.10 after N.Y. think tank report. Real money bids kept CTA stops intact under 80.10 and 80.00. The think tank said BoJ will keep policy unchanged next week, leaving its powder dry ahead of the Greek election and the next FOMC rate decision before deciding on policy. It said one strategy that the BoJ may adopt in the future is another round of operation twist. This is looking more likely after the failed 2-year JGB auction this week, which was the first time since it start its asset purchase programme in 2010 as yields fell to 0.095%, leaving it below the 0.10% floor that BoJ pays on excess reserves. However, BoJ have been cautious of adopting long-term bond buying, previously. BoJ Governor Shirakawa has also warned against the limitations of monetary policy and the disruption to the JGB market on an extended period of quantitative easing, though he remains under pressure to get inflation back to 1%. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| theflyonthewall.com: | FX Action: The dollar dipped a touch versus the yen | | FX Action: The dollar dipped a touch versus the yen, and moved slightly higher against the euro after the in-line claims outcome. EUR-USD remains just above session lows of 1.2666, while USD-JPY idles near 80.25. Ahead of the 10:00 EDT data, focus will be on equities, and any news from Europe. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 08:45 EDT | | |
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| theflyonthewall.com: | Jobless Claims data reported | | Week of 5/12 Jobless Claims :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 08:35 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | U.S. jobless claims were unchanged at 370k in the week ended May 12 | | U.S. jobless claims were unchanged at 370k in the week ended May 12 after a revised 2k increase to 370k the week before (revised from 367k). The 4-week moving average slid to 375k from 379.75k (revised from 379k). Initial claims fell 18k to 322.8k on a not-seasonally adjusted basis. Continuing claims rose 18k to 3,265k in the week ended May 5, from a revised 3,247k (was 3,229k). Note that this week's initial jobless claims figure takes on added importance as it coincides with the BLS survey week. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 08:33 EDT | | |
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| theflyonthewall.com: | Treausry Market Outlook: Treasuries have rebounded from earlier declines | | Treausry Market Outlook: Treasuries have rebounded from earlier declines, but yields have inside a narrow range. Asian accounts were reportedly better sellers in the 10-year sector which pushed the yield up to 1.79%. But the yield has drifted back down to 1.76% as equity gains fade. Eurozone spreads remain wide after the ECB halted lending to some Greek banks. Spanish banks, meanwhile, remain in trouble, having seen deposit withdrawals of some EUR 1 B since Wednesday. Spain also saw higher borrowing costs at its EUR2.5 B bond sale today. As for the U.S., there's more data today that could sustain the improved outlook on the economy. On tap are initial jobless claims for the week of May 12 (covers the BLS survey week), the May Philly Fed, and April leading indicators. The NY Fed will buy $1.5 B to $2 B in long dated bonds (February 2036 through May 2042 maturities) in today's Twist operation. St Louis Fed's Bullard will be speaking. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 07:34 EDT | | |
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| theflyonthewall.com: | Merkel wants Greece to stay in euro zone, NY Times reports | | German Chancellor Angela Merkel told CNBC yesterday that she's committed to keeping Greece in the euro zone and is open to implementing stimulus programs for the troubled country, according to The New York Times. Reference Link :theflyonthewall.com |
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May 16, 2012
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| 21:05 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Singapore non-oil domestic exports | | Singapore non-oil domestic exports rose 8.3% in April on a year comparable basis following the 4.3% y/y loss in March. The pick-up in the y/y growth rate was driven by a 38% surge in pharmaceuticals during April. Non-oil domestic exports rose a seasonally adjusted 13.1% in April compared with March of 2012 after a 16.8% m/m plunge in March. Exports to the U.S. fell 18.6% in April from a year earlier while exports to the EU contracted 12.2% y/y. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| theflyonthewall.com: | June FOMC Meeting Announcement to be released at 14:15 ET | | :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 17:00 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Lagarde says solution is for Greece to agree to bailout terms, CNBC reports | | :theflyonthewall.com |
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| theflyonthewall.com: | Week of 5/26 Redbook to be released at 08:55 ET | | :theflyonthewall.com |
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| theflyonthewall.com: | Week of 5/25 MBA Purchase Applications to be released at 07:00 ET | | :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 14:08 EDT | | |
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| 13:30 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Today's U.S. reports | | Today's U.S. reports revealed big upside surprises for both industrial production and housing starts that have boosted growth prospects for Q2, with big upward back-revisions in the housing report that lifted the recent starts trajectory with firmness in the important "starts under construction" component. For production, the big April gain reflected a full-reversal of lean winter utility readings alongside an outsized 5.9% vehicle assembly rate climb that has likely continued into May given available weekly data. For housing, both starts and permits are entering Q2 in the lofty 716k area that reflects a clear recovery for the sector, and permits strength suggests a continued recovery that analysts now assume will take starts to the 800k area by next January. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| theflyonthewall.com: | ECB expects Greek bank recapitalization to be finalized soon, Bloomberg says | | :theflyonthewall.com |
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| theflyonthewall.com: | Treasury Action: uncertainty over the FOMC minutes | | Treasury Action: uncertainty over the FOMC minutes suggests some market choppiness following the 14:00 ET release. While analysts and many other Fedwatchers doubt there will be any new nods to more QE, there is a camp looking for a more dovish tint in the report. Given this background, and with the 10-year note at 1.78%, only slightly above all-time lows, Treasuries could knee jerk a tad lower if there are no hints of stimulus. But losses should be mitigated by dip buyers who are wary of eurozone risks. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 11:40 EDT | | |
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| 11:27 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Draghi: ECB wants Greece to stay in euro zone, AP reports | | The European Central Bank has "a strong preference" for Greece to stay in the euro zone, said ECB head Mario Draghi, according to the Associated Press. Draghi also noted that there's no provision in the E.U. basic treaty for a country to leave the euro zone, the news service reported. Reference Link :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 11:20 EDT | | |
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| theflyonthewall.com: | Euro$ interest rate options: more bearish "put buying" | | Euro$ interest rate options: more bearish "put buying" in short Jun contracts has been cited, though the underlying futures have perked up a bit after credit contagion-related selling this week. A purchase of 20k in 99.375 "puts" on short Jun contracts was confirmed by sources, thought to potentially be a position unwind after purchases of up to 80k yesterday, while open interest in that strike has fallen 30k. There was also 3k in bearish purchases of 91/93 "put spreads" on Sep 2012s, "aggressive" purchases of 8k in 1-year "bundles" and some selling of 5k in 99.375 "straddles" (selling volatility). The underlying Sep 2012 future is 2-ticks higher at 99.395 despite this apparent bearish option activity, while the deferreds are 0.5 to 1.5 ticks firmer. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 10:10 EDT | | |
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| 09:50 EDT | | |
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| theflyonthewall.com: | U.S. industrial production posted a hefty 1.1% April bounce | | U.S. industrial production posted a hefty 1.1% April bounce that followed largely offsetting back revisions that included a downward March hit that left room for a larger April gain. The April level for industrial production exceed our assumptions due both to a surprisingly sharp 4.5% recovery in the utility component and a firm 10.7 M vehicle assembly clip that reflected a big 5.9% gain. The index is poised for 5% Q2 growth following unrevised prior clips of 5.4% in Q1, 5.0% in Q4 and 5.6% in Q3. Analysts've seen 2%-9% quarterly industrial production growth since the start of the expansion, aside from last year's tsunami-hit that left an anemic 1.2% Q2 pace. The firm factory figures over the past three quarters are in line with the 2.5% GDP growth path implied by our 2.5% Q2 forecast, following a prior zigzag that left an estimated 1.8% (was 2.2%) Q1 pace but stronger 3.0% Q4 clip. Vehicle assemblies have climbed 18.9% from the 9.0 M rate in November. The utility output surge has fully reversed the winter's mild-weather hit. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 09:25 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | FX Action: The dollar wan not impacted by the better industrial production print | | FX Action: The dollar wan not impacted by the better industrial production print, and remains in a narrow trading band overall. Stock futures continue to indicate a higher Wall Street open, though traders will watch performance after the start of trade. For now, it appears some unwinding of long USD positions may keep EUR-USD supported. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 09:20 EDT | | |
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| 09:20 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | U.S. industrial production climbed 1.1% in April | | U.S. industrial production climbed 1.1% in April from a downwardly revised -0.6% in March (was flat), while February was revised up to a 0.4% gain (from unchanged). That boosted capacity utilzation to 79.2% from 78.4% previously (revised from 78.6%). Excluding vehicles, production was up 0.9%. Manufacturing production rebounded 0.6%, helped by a strong 3.9% increase in motor vehicles and parts. Machinery production inched up 0.1%, but computer and electronics surged 1.6%. Utilities vaulted 4.5%. Mining increased 1.6%. All in all a much better than expected report. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 09:16 EDT | | |
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| 09:16 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Industrial Production Capacity Utilization Rate data reported | | April Industrial Production Capacity Utilization Rate at 79.2% vs. consensus of 79.0% :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 09:16 EDT | | |
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| 09:10 EDT | | |
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| 08:40 EDT | | |
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| 08:40 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Treasury Action: yields were spurred higher | | Treasury Action: yields were spurred higher by the solid gain in housing starts, which was accompanied by firmer back revisions. The news boosted stocks marginally and the 10-year yield popped from the 1.78% area to probe 1.82% along with a little more positive news flow out of Europe, though stocks there remain underwater. The 2s-10s spread widened back out slightly to +152 bp. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 08:35 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | U.S. housing starts rebounded 2.6% to 717k in April | | U.S. housing starts rebounded 2.6% to 717k in April from an upwardly revised 2.6% March drop to 699k (was -5.8% and 654k). Permits declined 7.0% to 715k from a revised 769k previously (was 764k). Both single and multi-family starts rose. The former increased 2.3%, while the latter climbed 3.2%. Housing completions were up 10.0% to a 651k pace from 592k previously (revised from 600k). :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 08:31 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Housing Starts Permits data reported | | April Housing Starts Permits at 0.715M vs. consensus of 0.725M :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 08:31 EDT | | |
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| 08:15 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Fedspeak from St. Louis Fed hawk Bullard | | Fedspeak from St. Louis Fed hawk Bullard will address "The Fed on Pause" as part of a "Dialogue with the Fed" sponsored by the Louisville Branch of the St. Louis Fed from 12:30 ET. This will be followed by the FOMC mintues of the April 24-25 meeting. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 08:10 EDT | | |
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| 08:05 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | U.S. MBA mortgage market index jumped 9.2% | | U.S. MBA mortgage market index jumped 9.2% in data released earlier, along with a 2.4% decline in the purchase index and a 13.0% jump in the refinance index for the week ended May-11. Another damp reading on the Apr payrolls report and more credit stress in Europe helped drive mortgage rates back down to lows and stimulate another round of refis. The average 30-year fixed rate fell 5 basis points to survey lows of 3.96%. The MBA cited "a flare-up of sovereign debt troubles" leading to a rush back into Treasuries, contributing to "mortgage rates reaching new lows in our survey, and refinancing application volumes picking up substantially." Accordingly, the share of total mortgage application activity claimed by refis climbed to 74.9% from 72.1%. For more on the housing sector, see our existing home sales, housing starts and new home sales reports. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 08:00 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Fed funds opened at 0.17% | | Fed funds opened at 0.17% after a 0.06% close last night. The rate ranged from 0.06% to 0.375% yesterday with a 0.16% effective. Interbank borrowing rates were higher at today's Libor fixing given rising eurozone jitters. The overnight dollar Libor rate climbed to 0.15550% from 0.15150%. The 1-week rate increased to 0.19110% versus 0.19010%. The 3-month rate rose to 0.46685% from 0.46585%. The 12-month rate jumped to 1.06795% from 1.06145%. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 07:59 EDT | | |
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| 07:55 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed | | Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are little changed, having pared earlier Asian gains. De-risking remained prevelent in Tokyo (Nikkei finished -1.1%) and early European action amid what else but Greek fears, with big buying in the 3-year note. Weak Japanese data added to demand for Treasuries, as did the BoE's inflation report (lowered estimates on inflation and growth) which also boosted Gilts. But a rebound in European bourses from earlier lows and gains in U.S. equity futures have resulted in some profit taking in bonds. Most of the focus will remain offshore, but attention will turn to upcoming data on April housing starts and industrial production. The MBA mortgage application figure rose 9.2%. igures. The FOMC minutes to the April 24, 25 meeting will be released this afternoon. The Fed's Bullard speaks on the economy. There will be no Fed Twist operations today. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 07:47 EDT | | |
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| 07:35 EDT | | |
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| theflyonthewall.com: | MBA Purchase Applications Composite Index data reported | | Week of 5/11 MBA Purchase Applications Composite Index up 9.2% for the week :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 06:47 EDT | | |
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| 06:45 EDT | | |
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| 06:44 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | The VSTOXX Index recently up 0.69 to 34 | | :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 06:25 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | On The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for May 16 | | Globex S&P futures are recently down 0.70 from previous day's SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 down 1.12%, DAX 30 down 1.06%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $92.14, copper down 1.75% and gold is at $1534 an ounce. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 06:15 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | FX Action: JPY consolidated | | FX Action: JPY consolidated after earlier volatility, leaving USD-JPY supported on dips into 80.30 amid broad based appetite to run dollar long position due to a general flight to safety. The JPY crosses were mixed, though closer to the lower end of recent ranges. EUR-JPY made an early move under 102.00, but did not sustain weaker levels due to natural demand on dips and light EUR-USD short covering, which left it above 102.00. AUD-JPY hit early lows of 79.32 after it fell back from 79.70, but ended the European net unchanged as European stock market stabilised on hope that ECB could provide emergency measures at today's council meeting, though there is scope for disappointment. During the Asian session there was speculation that BoJ could cut the deposit rate on excess reserves. Elsewhere, GBP-JPY dropped 70 pips after the BoE Inflation Report, which saw it print 127.70 lows before steadying around 128.00. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 06:10 EDT | | |
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| theflyonthewall.com: | New lending by China's four biggest state-owned banks was flat | | New lending by China's four biggest state-owned banks was flat in the first two weeks of May and total deposits extended April's decline to fall by around CNY 200 B ($31.65 billion), according to the official Shanghai Securities News. As of May 13, two of the big lenders posted higher loans, while another two saw their loans fall from a month ago, according to an unidentified source. Beijing's move to cut bank reserve ratio would help boost lending capacity by an estimated CNY 400 B, but regional analysts have said the government may need to take more fiscal measures to boost the economy. So far, Beijing has not been keen to tweak interest rates with inflation still at relatively high levels, though it has been moderating over the last several months. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 01:25 EDT | | |
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May 15, 2012
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| 20:15 EDT | | |
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| 19:39 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Consumer Confidence to be reported at 10:00 ET | | May Consumer Confidence will be reported at 10:00 ET. Current consensus is 69.7 :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 16:36 EDT | | |
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| theflyonthewall.com: | Greece's president warns depositors withdrew $898M from local banks, WSJ says |
Subscribe for More Information :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 15:15 EDT | | |
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| 15:15 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | U.S. Housing Starts Preview | | U.S. Housing Starts Preview: Wednesday's report on April housing starts is expected to show a 3.2% increase to a 675k (median 679k) rate for the month. Permits should be down to 710k from 764k in March and completions should decline to 595k from 600k. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 14:09 EDT | | |
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| 14:00 EDT | | |
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| 13:58 EDT | | |
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| 13:45 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | FOMC minutes preview: | | FOMC minutes preview: minutes to April 24-25 policy meeting (Wednesday) should again be light on QE hints while revealing a variety of opinions on the economy, as seen in the March minutes. The April 24, 25 policy statement indicated no change in policy and repeated the moderate growth view, as well as the significant downside risks posed by global financial strains. There's been a bevy of dovish and hawkish Fedspeak of late (almost all 19 FOMC members have spoken), but no strong indications of changes ahead have been forthcoming. Indeed, policy has been and remains conditional, with officials ready to act if necessary, and that will be the take-away from the minutes. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 13:00 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | U.S. corporate debt: Denmark priced its $1.75 B 3-year bond | | U.S. corporate debt: Denmark priced its $1.75 B 3-year bond at 0.625% or +28.5 bp over Treasuries earlier, having boosted the issue from $1.5 B. Other investment grade deals on tap are from the EBRD for a 5-year reopening against swaps, along with a $900 M 2-trancher of 10- and 30-year maturities from Oncor Electronics, a $500 M 10-year from Murphy Oil, a $1 B 2-trancher of 10- and 30-year maturities launched by Progress Energy. Talisman Energy has a 30-year, while Ontario hqas a 3-year deal as well. In the high yield sector Inmet Mining is prepping a $1.5 B 8-year, by far the largest of an assortment of mostly smaller intermediate offerings. Look for some light rate lock hedging and unwinds to contribute to the price action on balance on Treasuries. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 11:55 EDT | | |
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| 11:40 EDT | | |
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| 11:35 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Today's U.S. reports | | Today's U.S. reports revealed a largely expected lean retail sales and business inventory trajectory, though a sharp May Empire State bounce and a restrained round of April CPI data left a positive spin for the day's data overall. The weak headline sales print largely reflected the same gasoline price undershoot seen in the CPI report, alongside a downside mild-winter correction for building material sales. Today's weak inventory data trimmed our Q1 GDP growth forecast, though the leaner inventory path is an encouraging sign for Q2 and Q3, and the bounce in the NAHB index to 29 provides a modest longer-term lift. Analysts now expect a downward revision in real Q1 GDP growth to 1.8% from 2.2%, to be followed with growth of 2.5% in Q2, and "real" spending in Q2 will receive a lift as the global focus on deteriorating financial conditions in Europe is allowing a commodity price drop-back that will prove good news for U.S. real growth. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 11:15 EDT | | |
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| 11:10 EDT | | |
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| 11:10 EDT | | |
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| 10:25 EDT | | |
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| 10:25 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Fed policy outlook: the FOMC's policy stance remains conditional | | Fed policy outlook: the FOMC's policy stance remains conditional, as indicated by the policy statements this year and supported by Fedspeak. This is nothing new. Policymakers have refrained from further unconventional accommodation at the last two meetings as they monitor economic activity and inflation pressures here and abroad, along with global financial conditions. FOMC members have often repeated that they stand ready to adjust its balance sheet to promote a stronger recovery in a context of price stability, with the significant downside risks posed by global financial strains a major factor in their reaction function. Meanwhile, the minutes to the April 24, 25 meeting will be released tomorrow and are expected to show a wide ranging discussion of pros and cons to additional stimulus amid varying outlooks on the economy, though of course with most preferring to hold on the sidelines for now. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 10:20 EDT | | |
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| 10:20 EDT | | |
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| 10:20 EDT | | |
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| 10:20 EDT | | |
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| 10:20 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | U.S. business inventories undershot expectations | | U.S. business inventories undershot expectations with a 0.3% March increase that followed a 0.6% February business inventory gain. Analysts saw a 0.4% March retail inventory rise alongside already-reported gains of 0.3% for factories and 0.6% for wholesalers. Analysts now expect a downward revision in real Q1 GDP growth to 1.8% from 2.2%, with a $16 B downward Q1 inventory bump that leaves a near-flat (was $17.3) B net GDP contribution. For additional Q1 revisions, analysts expect a $6 B downward consumption revision and a $5 B downward public construction revision, but upward revisions of $7 B in net exports and $5 B in nonresidential construction. For Q2 GDP, analysts expect 2.5% headline growth with a flat inventory impact. The inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio slipped to 1.27 from the 1.28 seen in eight of the prior nine months, versus a 1.26 cycle-low in March of 2011 and a 1.25 record-low in October of 2005. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 10:20 EDT | | |
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| 10:04 EDT | | |
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| 10:01 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Housing Market Index data reported | | May Housing Market Index at 29 vs. consensus of 26 :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 10:01 EDT | | |
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| 09:50 EDT | | |
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| 09:40 EDT | | |
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| 09:35 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | U.S. retail sales revealed lean 0.1% headline | | U.S. retail sales revealed lean 0.1% headline and ex-auto gains in April that fell a tick short of assumptions, thanks to slightly bigger gasoline and building material drops than expected. The figures for retail sales excluding autos, gasoline, and building materials, which is used to project growth in the real consumption component of GDP, the figures slightly outpaced assumptions. Despite today's tiny surprises, the retail sales trajectory was revised downward in the annual revisions released back on April 30, so the current trajectory is still well below the path revealed in the March retail sales report. For Q2, analysts expect real consumption growth of 3.0% with 2.5% GDP growth. For Q1, analysts assume a downward GDP growth bump to 1.9% from 2.2%, with a $6 B downward consumption revision. Analysts assume a 0.3% April PCE gain with the same 0.3% real gain, alongside a flat April PCE chain price gain that matches today's headline April CPI headline, alongside 0.2% core price increases for both. The business inventory report later this morning will reveal a 0.6% March sales gain that follows a 0.7% Febuary increase. Today's retail sales data are consistent with a lean 0.3% business sales gain in next month's April report. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 09:30 EDT | | |
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| 09:19 EDT | | |
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| 09:15 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | U.S. TIC data showed foreign accounts sold $49.9 B in net U.S. assets in March | | U.S. TIC data showed foreign accounts sold $49.9 B in net U.S. assets in March, from a revised $92.6 B purchase in February (was $107.7 B). Purchases of long term assets rose $36.2 B following a $10.1 B March gain (not revised). Overseas accounts bought $20.5 B in Treasury coupons, and $6.95 B in stocks, but sold $6.7 B in agency paper. China was the largest buyer of Treasury notes and bonds in March at $14.7 B, followed by Brazil at $9.0 B. Oil exporters were the largest seller at $10.4 B, followed by Caribbean (hedge funds) at -$6.9 B and then the U.K. at -$4.1 B. There are ongoing concerns over who will buy the large amount of Treasuries offered each month once safe haven demand fades. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 09:15 EDT | | |
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| 09:01 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Treasury International Capital Foreign Demand for Long-Term U.S. Securities data reported | | March Treasury International Capital Foreign Demand for Long-Term U.S. Securities at $36.2B :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 08:55 EDT | | |
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| 08:55 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | The flat April U.S. CPI headline | | The flat April U.S. CPI headline with a 0.2% core price rise undershot our assumption due to a big 1.7% energy price drop, though analysts saw the expected 0.2% food price gain. Though market prices for gasoline were firm through the month, the price indexes for April tracked the 3% drop in WTI prices. The April CPI increases were both rounded down from 0.034% for the headline and 0.242% for the core. The y/y headline CPI measure fell to 2.3% from 2.7% in March, versus a 3.9% cycle-high last September and a 1.1% cycle-low in November of 2010. The April y/y core rise remained at the 2.3% cycle-high seen in March and January, versus a 0.6% cycle-low in October of 2010. Analysts saw a 0.2% April PPI headline drop but 0.2% core price gain, as a 1.4% energy price drop depressed the headline in that survey. The April trade price report revealed export and food price firmness but petroleum and import price weakness, alongside core price restraint. Analysts assume the same flat headline and 0.2% core price gain in the April PCE chain price data. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 08:50 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | U.S. April retail sales inched up 0.1%, with the ex-auto component up 0.1% as well |
Subscribe for More Information :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 08:50 EDT | | |
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| 08:50 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | FX Action: The dollar moved higher versus the yen | | FX Action: The dollar moved higher versus the yen, and the dollar following the mix of data, where April headline retail sales were a tick light of expectations. April CPI was cooler than forecasts, while the May Empire State index beat the street. USD-JPY reclaimed the 80 handle while EUR-USD dipped toward 1.2830. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 08:50 EDT | | |
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| 08:40 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Treasury Action: yields probed moderately higher | | Treasury Action: yields probed moderately higher as the damp retail sales and moderate core CPI reading were offset by the sizable rebound the regional Empire State index. Overall, this is not a particularly robust snapshot of the U.S. economy, however, and eurozone issues are hanging over the markets, along with vague reports that the Fed may be considering QE3 if that situation deteriorates further. The 10-year yield nosed back over 1.80% from the 1.78% area, but is lacking momentum. Stocks extended pre-market gains somewhat. The 2s-10s spread is at +153 bp. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 08:35 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | U.S. April retail sales inched up 0.1%, with the ex-auto component up 0.1% as well |
Subscribe for More Information :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 08:33 EDT | | |
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| 08:32 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Retail Sales Less Autos & Gas data reported | | April Retail Sales Less Autos & Gas up 0.1% vs. consensus of 0.3% for the month :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 08:32 EDT | | |
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| 08:32 EDT | | |
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| 08:32 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Consumer Price Index CPI less food & energy data reported | | April Consumer Price Index CPI less food & energy at 0.2% vs. consensus of 0.2% :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 08:32 EDT | | |
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| 08:30 EDT | | |
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| 08:25 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | U.S. Empire State Index Preview | | U.S. Empire State Index Preview: the Empire State Index is expected to rebound to 10.0 (median 9.3) in May from the 6.6 headline in April that plunged from 20.2 in March. This first release on producer sentiment will help guide our expectations for later releases such as the Philly Fed which analysts expect to increase to 12.0 from 8.5. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 08:25 EDT | | |
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| 08:25 EDT | | |
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| 08:15 EDT | | |
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| 08:15 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | U.S. Retail Sales Preview | | U.S. Retail Sales Preview: headline April retail sales is seen growing by 0.3% (median 0.2%) with the ex-autos figure rising by 0.2% (median 0.2%). Growth should remain positive, but this represents a slowing of the pace seen in recent months as retail sales encounter headwinds from falling fuel prices and slowing construction spending as analysts discuss in Monday's commentary. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 08:15 EDT | | |
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| 07:48 EDT | | |
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| 07:43 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | China foreign investment falls 0.7% in April, Bloomberg reports | | Foreign direct investment in China fell 0.7% in April from a year ago, declining to $8.4B, Bloomberg reports, citing figures from the Ministry of Commerce. Reference Link :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 07:40 EDT | | |
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| 07:24 EDT | | |
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| 07:05 EDT | | |
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| 06:40 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | ISE Sentiment Index-ISEE closed at 77; 10-day moving average is 93 | | :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 06:40 EDT | | |
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| 06:39 EDT | | |
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| 06:35 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | On The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for May 15 | | Globex S&P futures are recently up 8.60 from previous day's SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 down 0.81%, DAX 30 up 0.49%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $94.77, copper down 0.32% and gold is at $1559 an ounce. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 05:55 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Oil Action: Nymex crude was capped from $95 bbl | | Oil Action: Nymex crude was capped from $95 bbl amid ongoing eurozone uncertainty and concerns over the global growth outlook. A slowdown in China foreign direct investment fanned growth fears in Asia, though there was some positives in Europe after eurozone unexpectedly avoided a technical recession. Energy fundamentals should also keep the topside in check after Saudi Arabia called on OPEC to raise supply yesterday to deal with high prices, while U.S. oil inventories also remain at lofty levels and this week's data should reveal an eighth consecutively weekly rise. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 04:45 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | FX Action: USD-JPY ran into offers ahead of 80.00 | | FX Action: USD-JPY ran into offers ahead of 80.00, which have been in place since the Asian session got underway. Progress via USD-JPY should be limited amid option expiries at 79.75 and 80.00 for today's N.Y. cut. Meanwhile, the JPY crosses ran out of steam on the topside after posting a modest opening rally, which came amid a stabilisation in European equity markets. However, Greek political uncertainty capped EUR-JPY around 102.85 after it held just above sell stops through 102.20 in Asia, while AUD-JPY met fund offers from 80.00 after it recovered from 79.35-40 lows. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 01:45 EDT | | |
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| 01:20 EDT | | |
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| 01:10 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | China's FDI dropped 2.4% in the first four months of 2012 | | China's FDI dropped 2.4% in the first four months of 2012 versus last year. China January-April inflow came in at $37.9 B, while April inflows were at $8.4 B vs $8.5 B a year ago. This is the longest period of slowing inflows since 2009 and reflected the weaker global growth outlook and deleveraging by banks. Commerce Ministry Official Shen blamed the decline on the global economy, but remained optimistic on China reaching its growth targets this year. FDI from the EU dropped 27.9% year-on-year in the January-April period, while inflows from the U.S. rose 1.9%. FDI from 10 Asian economies rose 0.6% to $33.1 billion in the same period, the ministry said. :theflyonthewall.com |
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May 14, 2012
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| 15:40 EDT | | |
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| 15:15 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Treasury Closing Summary: | | Treasury Closing Summary: Credit jitters manifested along the curve, involuntarily enhancing the Fed's Twist Ops. Greek political disarray and JPM CDS fallout kept the financial sector off-balance and raised premiums at the short-end even as yields tumbled at the long-end. There was no data, leaving the focus on the machinations in Europe and the spillover to U.S financials. After the Euro Stoxx 50 plunged 2.3%, this knocked a couple percentage points off U.S. equities before they pared their opening losses. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 14:40 EDT | | |
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| 14:40 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | FX Action: USD-CAD ran into sellers over the 1.0050 mark | | FX Action: USD-CAD ran into sellers over the 1.0050 mark in North American trade on Monday, though remained firm through the morning session, as risk taking levels were subdued. Greece fears kept markets jittery, though as Wall Street recovered from its worst levels, USD-CAD managed a modest pullback to near 1.0010. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 14:40 EDT | | |
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| 14:05 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Lightsquared, failed wireless venture, files for bankruptcy, Bloomberg says | | :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 13:59 EDT | | |
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| 13:20 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Spec longs in 10-year T-note futures increased | | Spec longs in 10-year T-note futures increased through Tuesday of last week according to data released in the CTFC's CoT report. The disappointing April payrolls report the Friday prior and fresh troubles brewing in Europe contributed to the start of the latest bull run in Treasuries. Non-commercial accounts purchased 22.3k in 10-year futures and options vs a 12k reduction in the number of shorts for a net 34.3k increase in longs. Commercial accounts saw an increase of 54.6k in longs and 78.6k in shorts for a net 24k increase in shorts. Cash yields have eased further since then, below 1.80% with more stress in Europe arriving on the doorstep of JPM last week and this should continue to on balance slant the spec population toward longs into next Monday's report. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 13:00 EDT | | |
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| 11:25 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | U.S. dollar swap spread widening | | U.S. dollar swap spread widening has picked up as contagion via European financials to the U.S. has leaked through to the credit markets. The 2-year spread widened over 3 basis points just today from the +35 bp (mid) area to +37.75 bp. Likewise, the 10-year spread has lurched out 1.5 bp to +16.50 bp -- more than half way back to 2011 wides in Q4 near +24.0 bp set during the peak of the pre-LTRO credit-crunch in Europe that set up the Fed's 6-party swap agreements last year. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 11:10 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | NY Fed bought $4.746 B in 10-year notes in today's Twist | | NY Fed bought $4.746 B in 10-year notes in today's Twist. Maturities ranged from May 15, 2018 through FebruaRY 15, 2020. The Street offered $14.154 B. The Fed's Twist operations this week are mostly bullish for Treasuries with purchases outnumbering sales 3 to 1. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 11:05 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Treasury announced a $30 B 4-week bill auction for Tuesday | | Treasury announced a $30 B 4-week bill auction for Tuesday. The size remains unchanged since early April. Supply this week includes the usual bill auctions and a $13 B 10-year TIPS reopening (Thursday). This morning the debt managers sell $57 B in 3- and 6-month bills. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 10:30 EDT | | |
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| 10:30 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Treasury Option Action: some unwinding of bullish bond bets | | Treasury Option Action: some unwinding of bullish bond bets appears to be a feature into the pointed rally on Treasuries. Sources cited a sale of 5k in Jun 2012 144 bond calls into the rally and were speculating that this might be position liquidation rather than a new position, given the firm undertone. Meanwhile, the cash bond yield has plunged from Asian highs near 3.01% to 2.93%. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 10:15 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Euro$ interest rate futures are sharply lower | | Euro$ interest rate futures are sharply lower even as Treasuries outperform amid credit contagion and liquidity evaporating from Europe, which is spilling over to the short-dated U.S. rate contracts. With financials trading under pressure again following Greece balkanization and JPM 's CDS shortfall, this has sponsored a reset in the credit markets. The Sep 2012 contract is 5-ticks lower, while the deferreds are 3-5 ticks lower out the curve. On the options side this has been accompanied by 10k in sales of Jun 2012 86/87 "call spreads", according to sources -- in line with the bearish tone. Sep's violation of the 200-day moving average at 99.425 has the market challenging key support from the Dec 2011 high at 99.380. A violation of 99.380 would worsen the undertone and leave the market at risk to continue lower toward Jan congestion at 99.335 at a minimum. It would take a near closeback above 99.435 to improve the tone and suggest a near term floor is in place. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 09:56 EDT | | |
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| 09:50 EDT | | |
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| 09:30 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Treasury Action: risk aversion over Greece and contagion jitters | | Treasury Action: risk aversion over Greece and contagion jitters have propelled core sovereign yields to record lows. And trading sources say the safe havens are becoming a very crowded trade as the world of "risk free" assets shrinks. The Treasury 7-year dropped to a new nadir at 1.17%, versus the prior low at 1.24% from January 31. Germany's 2-year Schatz yield dropped to a fresh low of 0.055% while the Bund fell to 1.44%. U.K.'s Gilt 10-year yield fell to 1.867%; the prior low was set last Thursday. In this environment it wouldn't be surprising to see further declines in yields. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 09:30 EDT | | |
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| 08:28 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Futures continue to indicate sharply lower open | | Stock futures continue to suggest a lower open as investors remain concerned about the fate of Greece, and its ability to remain in the euro zone. Investors are also concerned about the impact of a recession on the E.U. Meanwhile, China released data which showed a drop in demand. The data indicates that the world's second largest economy continues to slow, despite the government's fiscal easing. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 08:20 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Fed funds opened at 0.17% | | Fed funds opened at 0.17% after a 0.11% close on Friday. The rate ranged from 0.08% to 0.375% on Friday with a 0.15% effective. Interbank borrowing rates are jumping higher amid Greek worries and JPM's banking woes. The overnight dollar Libor rate rose to 0.15000% versus 0.14900% previously. The 1-week rate increased to 0.19010% from 0.18960%. However, the 3-month rate dipped to 0.46585% compared to 0.46685%. But the 12-month rate rose to 1.05895% from 1.05570%. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 08:10 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are sharply higher | | Treasury Market Outlook: Treasuries are sharply higher on another bout of risk aversion amid Greek concerns. The 10-year yield has dropped to 1.78%, while the 7-year at 1.17% is a new record low. Greece's political deadlock has dragged stocks down with the DAX off over 2% as another round of elections loom, and as an exit from the EMU is being discussed openly. Additionally, Germany's Merkel also suffered a major election defeat over the weekend in NRW to further complicate matters. These factors overshadowed another easing from China. Today's U.S. calendar is virtually empty, except for the weekly bill auction and the NY Fed's outright Twist purchase. But manufacturing, wholesale trade and inflation data is on tap throughout the week. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 07:20 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | FX Action: USD-JPY was weighed by model fund selling | | FX Action: USD-JPY was weighed by model fund selling, which tripped stops under 80.00 and extended to 79.85. AUD-JPY edged through another round of bids towards 79.70 and is on course to threaten stops through 79.65 lows from mid-January. Option barrier exposure at 79.50 may provide temporary support, but Japanese names point to a very large speculative positions that could exacerbate any further decline. USD-JPY's downside will be sensitive to any downward pressure on U.S. yields, though Japanese intervention risk should see relatively slow movement towards 79.50. Sell stops are tipped under 79.40. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 07:20 EDT | | |
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| 07:11 EDT | | |
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| 06:44 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | Greece looks headed to new elections, NY Times says | | It appears that Greece's leading political parties will be unable to form a unity government, making new elections there almost inevitable, according to The New York Times. Reference Link :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 06:27 EDT | | |
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| 06:26 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | The VSTOXX Index recently up 3.53 to 31.92 | | :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 06:24 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | NASDAQ 100 overall implied volatility at 20; 26-week average is 21 | | :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 06:23 EDT | | |
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| 06:09 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | On The Fly: Morning Wrap-Up for May 14 | | Globex S&P futures are recently down 11.20 from previous day's SPX cash close. Nikkei 225 up 0.23%, DAX 30 down 2.12%. WTI Crude oil is recently at $94.28, copper down 2.22% and gold is at $1562 an ounce. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 06:00 EDT | | |
| theflyonthewall.com: | FX Action: USD-JPY was unable to sustain higher levels | | FX Action: USD-JPY was unable to sustain higher levels after Japanese offers put a top in place from 80.20 in early Europe, which offset dollar buying momentum, while JPY cross heaviness also weighed. USD-JPY is trading right over option strike levels at 80.00, which are due to roll off over the next few sessions. Meanwhile, EUR-JPY me fund selling from 103.30 earlier, but did not progress under 103.00, while AUD-JPY filled in support at 79.90 to trade around 79.75, though Japanese bargain hunting is anticipated on dips. Japanese policy makers continue to warn over yen gains, though BoJ Shirakawa weighed expectations and said recklessly boosting JGB could disrupt markets. Japan may be considering other option and direct intervention in the FX market may be possible on extended yen gains. :theflyonthewall.com |
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| 05:55 EDT | | |
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May 13, 2012
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| 10:29 EDT | | |
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