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November 16, 2015
14:00 EDTWMTWal-Mart November 57 straddle priced for 3.5% movement into Q3
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12:35 EDTAAPLApple reaps 94% of global smartphone profits, Business Insider says
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11:42 EDTWMTWal-Mart volatility increases into Q3 and outlook
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11:15 EDTWMTEarnings Watch: Analysts largely downbeat on Wal-Mart after annual meeting
Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) is scheduled to report third quarter earnings before the market open on Tuesday, November 17, with a conference call scheduled for 7:00 am ET. Wal-Mart, a member of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, operates retail stores in various formats under 69 different banners in 27 countries with its "everyday low price" philosophy. EXPECTATIONS: Analysts are looking for earnings per share of 98c on revenue of $117.79B, according to First Call. The consensus range for EPS is $1.07-$1.15 on revenue of $114.86B-$119.57B. In its last earnings report, Wal-Mart forecast Q3 EPS of 93c-$1.05 with Q3 U.S. same store sales projected to grow 2%-3%. LAST QUARTER: Wal-Mart reported second quarter EPS of $1.08, missing analysts' estimate of $1.12, on revenue of $120.2B, beating analysts' estimate of $119.72B. The company said currency negatively impacted Q2 EPS by approximately 4c. Comp sales at Walmart U.S. increased 1.5%, driven by traffic of 1.3%, and Neighborhood Market comps increased approximately 7.3%. Global e-commerce sales for Q2 increased about 16%, the company said. Looking ahead, Wal-Mart cut its outlook for fiscal year 2016 EPS to $4.40-$4.70 from $4.70-$5.05 against estimates at that time for $4.77. Chief Financial officer Charles Holley said operating profit would be pressured for the remainder of the year, due to in store associate wages and additional hours, as well as headwinds from pharmacy reimbursements and ongoing shrink. The company said that the impact from investments in wages, training and additional hours in its stores and clubs will be approximately 24c, including approximately 8c in Q3. Additionally, the company said that along with pharmacy headwinds, higher than expected ongoing shrink in Walmart U.S. will impact full year EPS by around 11c, including about 3c in Q3. Further, the FY16 currency exchange rate impact is expected to be approximately 15c, up 2c from last quarter's revised guidance of 13c. NEWS: At its annual meeting on October 14, Wal-Mart forecast net sales growth of approximately 3% for FY16 excluding the impact of currency exchange fluctuations. The company forecast net sales growth of 3%-4% annually over the next three years, which will add about $45B-$60B in sales. Looking to fiscal year 2017, Wal-Mart forecast EPS down 6%-12% vs. FY16. Wal-Mart also said that the strong dollar is expected to reduce the company's FY15 revenue by $15B, Reuters said. Wal-Mart's board authorized a new $20B share repurchase program and said it expects operating income to bottom out in FY17. During the quarter, Reuters reported that Wal-Mart filed an application with the Federal Aviation Administration to test drones for home delivery, curbside pickup and warehouse inventory checks. The Wall Street Journal said Wal-Mart is slimming down its number of items in an attempt to bolster sales figures, yet the reduction has created tensions with suppliers. STREET RESEARCH: Credit Suisse, Stephens and BofA Merrill Lynch all downgraded Wal-Mart after the retailer's annual meeting based on guidance for declining earnings in FY17 and a lack of earnings growth until FY19. Baird, UBS and Jefferies all cut their price targets on Wal-Mart following the annual meeting. JPMorgan analyst Christopher Horvers said the "depth and degree" of the financial pressures addressed at the annual meeting were "much greater than anticipated." Ahead of the Q3 earnings report, Baird reiterated its Outperform rating and $70 price target and said Wal-Mart shares appear to hold some value for patient investors. Wal-Mart was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Northcoast on November 13. PRICE ACTION: Wal-Mart shares are down over 21% over the last three months, but are up about 1% to $57.07 in late morning trading ahead of Tuesday's earnings report.
10:25 EDTAAPLUBS trims Apple target, says iPhone partner cut production forecast
Hon Hai, which manufactures Apple's (AAPL) iPhones, expects to assemble significantly fewer iPhones this quarter than in the same period in 2014, UBS wrote in a note to investors today. WHAT'S NEW: Hon Hai Precision Industry, also known as Foxconn, is expected to assemble 10% fewer iPhones this quarter than in the same period in 2014, said UBS analyst Steven Milunovich, citing work from fellow UBS analyst Arthur Hsieh. Previously, companies that supply force touch components for iPhones saw a 10%-15% reduction in their orders, the analyst reported. These developments "are not encouraging," but Apple had previously ordered a large number of iPhones for Q4, according to Milunovich. Overall iPhone demand "could still be decent," he believes. However, the analyst lowered his iPhone sales estimate for Apple's March quarter to 61M from 62.5M, asserting that iPhone sales on China's November 11 Singles Day holiday may have come in below expectations. Based on October search volumes, he continues to believe that demand for iPhone units in the fourth quarter of the calendar year will be 75M, in-line with the consensus outlook. Milunovich trimmed his price target on Apple to $140 from $150 but kept a Buy rating on the shares. WHAT'S NOTABLE In a note to investors on November 10, Credit Suisse reported that it was cutting its estimates for 2016 iPhone sales. The firm expects sales of the device to fall 10.4% in the first quarter versus the same period in 2015, and it predicts that iPhone sales will decline 5.5% year-over-year in 2016. Suppliers with greater than 10% exposure to Apple include Avago (AVGO), SanDisk (SNDK), Analog Devices (ADI), Broadcom (BRCM), Texas Instruments (TXN), NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) and Fairchild (FCS), Credit Suisse reported. The firm said it continues to have a negative view of the smartphone sector. PRICE ACTION: In early trading, Apple added nearly 1% to $113.34.
10:00 EDTBBYOn The Fly: Analyst Downgrade Summary
Today's noteworthy downgrades include: Abengoa (ABGB) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Canaccord... Best Buy (BBY) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital... CDTi (CDTI) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Roth Capital... CNH Industrial (CNHI) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JPMorgan... Clayton Williams (CWEI) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Roth Capital... Disney (DIS) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Guggenheim... Endo (ENDP) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Mizuho... Five Below (FIVE) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank... Garrison Capital (GARS) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at William Blair... General Growth (GGP) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Evercore ISI... Helmerich & Payne (HP) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Evercore ISI... Kosmos (KOS) downgraded on investor sentiment, costs at RBC Capital... MannKind (MNKD) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Griffen Securities... Media General (MEG) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Evercore ISI... Progressive (PGR) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman... Sabra Health Care (SBRA) downgraded on challenges, investor sentiment at Stifel... Simon Property (SPG) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Evercore ISI... Springleaf (LEAF) downgraded after settlement on acquisition reached at BMO Capital... Steiner Leisure (STNR) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at William Blair... Taubman Centers (TCO) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Evercore ISI... TerraForm Power (TERP) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS... UniCredit (UNCFF) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citi... Violin Memory (VMEM) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Maxim... Vipshop (VIPS) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley... Wolseley (WOSYY) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank.
10:00 EDTNVDAOn The Fly: Analyst Upgrade Summary
Today's noteworthy upgrades include: Alliant Energy (LNT) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo... AmerisourceBergen (ABC) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley... Amphenol (APH) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman... CA Technologies (CA) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Citi... Cempra (CEMP) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley... Edgewell Personal Care (EPC) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman... Eli Lilly (LLY) upgraded on improved growth outlook at BMO Capital... MiMedx (MDXG) upgraded to Strong Buy from Buy at Needham... NVIDIA (NVDA) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Canaccord... New York REIT (NYRT) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Evercore ISI... Oracle (ORCL) upgraded to Conviction Buy from Buy at Goldman... Perrigo (PRGO) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS... Semtech (SMTC) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at B. Riley... Tullow Oil (TUWOY) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS... Wabtec (WAB) upgraded to Outperform on valuatoin at Raymond James.
09:37 EDTAAPL, INTCActive equity options trading on open
Active equity options trading on open: AAPL FB ORCL BAC SUNE FDX FCX EXPE NFLX MU AMZN INTC TSLA
09:33 EDTGOOGeBay second week of November SSS up 0.4%, ChannelAdvisor says
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08:46 EDTAAPL4-inch iPhone 6c may be available in middle of 2016, Cult of Mac reports
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08:44 EDTAAPLGerman watchdog launches probe into Apple, Amazon audio books pact, Reuters says
Germany's Federal Cartel Office has initiated a probe into Apple's (AAPL) arrangement with Amazon (AMZN) for buying audiobooks, Reuters reports. The watchdog said that both companies had a long-term agreement for the purchase of audio books by Apple from Amazon via Apple's iTunes, the report says. Reference Link
08:36 EDTWMTWal-Mart holds value for patient long-term investors, says Baird
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07:40 EDTWMTBuffett says lower stakes in Goldman, Wal-Mart doesn't reflect lower confidence
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07:36 EDTWMTBerkshire Hathaway discloses new AT&T stake in quarterly update
Berkshire Hathaway gave a quarterly update on its stakes in a filing this morning. NEW STAKES: AT&T (T), Kraft Heinz (KHC), Liberty Lilac Group (LILA). INCREASED STAKES: Phillips 66 (PSX), Charter (CHTR), Liberty Media (LMCK), Suncor (SU), General Motors (GM). DECREASED STAKES: Goldman Sachs (GS), Wal-Mart (WMT), Deere (DE), Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI), WABCO (WBC). LIQUIDATED STAKES: Viacom (VIAB).
06:40 EDTNVDANVIDIA upgraded to Buy from Hold at Canaccord
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06:37 EDTAAPLApple's Cook: No plans to make 'converged' MacBook and iPad, Independent reports
Apple has no plans to build a "converged" MacBook and iPad, the Independent reports, citing CEO Tim Cook. "We feel strongly that customers are not really looking for a converged Mac and iPad," Cook said. "Because what that would wind up doing, or what we're worried would happen, is that neither experience would be as good as the customer wants. So we want to make the best tablet in the world and the best Mac in the world. And putting those two together would not achieve either. You'd begin to compromise in different ways." Reference Link
06:32 EDTBBYBest Buy downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital
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06:27 EDTGOOGYandex extends Google antitrust battle to EU, Bloomberg reports
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06:19 EDTAAPLApple News fails to impress publishers, Digiday reports
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06:05 EDTAAPLApple price target lowered to $140 from $150 at UBS
UBS analyst Steven Milunovich lowered his price target for Apple to $140 from $150 saying the stock's multiple is likely to be pressured until supply chain concerns are resolved. UBS analyst Arthur Hsieh indicates Hon Hai's Q4 iPhone assembly order forecast has been cut and should be down 10% year-over-year, Milunovich tells investors in a research note. The analyst is unclear what the order pullback means for iPhone shipments, but notes "it is not encouraging." Milunovich maintains his above-consensus December estimates for Apple, but trimmed his estimates for the March quarter. He keeps a Buy rating on Apple.
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