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March 14, 2014
16:22 EDTULTA, GMCR, ARO, SIRI, CELG, SBUX, LMCAOn The Fly: Closing Wrap
Stocks on Wall Street were lower following another session dominated by headlines concerning the geopolitical situation. Stocks were lower early in the session following the lower than expected University of Michigan consumer confidence reading. The market moved in a narrow range and crossed back and forth across the flat-line several times. Investors remain on edge following several recent poor economic reports out of China and frequent remainders of the upcoming elections in the Ukraine on Sunday. ECONOMIC EVENTS: In the U.S., producer prices fell 0.1% overall in February, versus an expected increase of 0.2%. The core reading, which excludes food and energy, fell 0.2%, versus an expected increase of 0.1%. The Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey for March unexpectedly dropped to a four-month low of 79.9. The preliminary reading for the month was expected by analysts to have come in at 81.8, which would have been a slight bump from the prior 81.6 figure. In Europe, citizens of the Crimea region of the Ukraine are likely to vote to secede this weekend, even as Ukraine, the U.S and the European Union maintain that the vote is illegal. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said he was told that Vladimir Putin is not prepared to make any decision regarding Ukraine until after the country's referendum. COMPANY NEWS: Liberty Media (LMCA) shares gained $9.11, or 7.22%, to $135.25 after the company announced last night that it plans to reclassify its common stock into two tracking stocks, one called Liberty Media Group and the other called Liberty Broadband Group. Liberty President & CEO Greg Maffei called the move "another step in Liberty’s process of offering investors greater choice, transparency and focus." Liberty said in conjunction with the plan that it would drop plans to buy the rest of Sirius XM (SIRI), in which it currently holds a 53% stake in. Sirius XM had previously suspended its stock repurchase program in connection with Liberty Media's proposal and it announced today that it now intends to resume the repurchase plan. Shares of Sirius advanced 7c, or 2.08%, to $3.44 following the news. MAJOR MOVERS: Among the notable gainers was beauty retailer Ulta Salon (ULTA), which advanced $5.75, or 6.42%, to $95.26 after the company’s fourth quarter results beat estimates. Also higher were shares of single-serve coffee machine maker Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR), which rose $7.09, or 6.68%, to $113.25 after the company agreed to new terms in its deal with coffee giant Starbucks (SBUX). Among the noteworthy losers was teen retailer Aeropostale (ARO), which dropped $1.47, or 20.14%, to $5.83 after its fourth quarter results and first quarter outlook missed analysts' consensus expectations and the company entered a financing deal with private equity firm Sycamore Partners. Also lower were shares of drug maker Celgene (CELG), which dropped $6.59, or 4.22%, to $149.41 after the U.K.'s healthcare guidance body issued new draft guidance on the use of the company's Revlimid drug. INDEXES: The Dow fell 43.22, or 0.27%, to 16,065.67, the Nasdaq dropped 15.02, or 0.35%, to 4,245.40, and the S&P 500 declined 5.21, or 0.28%, to 1,841.13.
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November 18, 2015
12:41 EDTGMCREarnings Watch: Keurig CEO still confident of long-term goals ahead of Q4 report
Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR) is scheduled to report fourth quarter results after the market close on Wednesday, November 18 with a conference call scheduled for 5:00 pm ET. Keurig Green Mountain, formerly Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, is engaged in the specialty coffee and coffee maker businesses and owns the "Keurig" brand of single-serve coffee makers and products. EXPECTATIONS: Analysts are looking for earnings per share of 71c on revenue of $1.03B, according to First Call. The consensus range for EPS is 68c-74c on revenue of $1.07B-$1.2B. LAST QUARTER: On August 5, Keurig Green Mountain reported third quarter adjusted EPS of 80c, beating analysts' estimates of 79c, on revenue of $969.6M, missing consensus estimates of $1.04B. The company forecast Q3 adjusted EPS of 70c-75c on a sales decline of low teens compared to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2014. The company forecast FY15 adjusted EPS to decline in mid-single digits and net sales growth to be flat to up low-single digits compared to FY14. NEWS: In conjunction with its last earnings release, Keurig Green Mountain announced a $1B share repurchase authorization and said that based upon its preliminary estimates for fiscal 2016, the company expects its hot business to deliver modest adjusted EPS growth over fiscal 2015 inclusive of the expected productivity savings. The company also announced plans to reduce its workforce by 5% over the next few years, which is expected to generate about $300M in savings over the next three years with approximately $100M of savings in FY16. Brian Kelley, the company's chief executive officer, said that the company can still reach its long-term EPS goals and noted that the company experts a stronger FY15 holiday season than FY14. Kelley said that the company's new countertop device, the Kold machine, will drive long-term growth following recent sales declines in its core business, Reuters reported in September. Dow Jones said on October 21 that David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital shorted Keurig Green Mountain again. STREET RESEARCH: Canaccord lowered its price target on Keurig Green Mountain to $59 from $65 in a November note to clients and said they can't recommend buying the shares until the K-cup risk stabilizes, which could be helped by a strong holiday brewer sales season. On November 11, shares were downgraded to Negative from Mixed at OTR Global. PRICE ACTION: Over the last three months, Keurig Green Mountain shares are down over 19%. Year-to-date, shares are down roughly 69%. In afternoon trading ahead of the company's earnings, shares are up fractionally to $40.43.
10:29 EDTULTAOptions with increasing implied volatility
Options with increasing implied volatility: TERP CSC SGMS RH BBRY ULTA SNDK ORCL NKE VNET
08:47 EDTGMCRKeurig Green Mountain expanding KOLD beverage lineup with cocktail mixers
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08:36 EDTSBUXStarbucks sees expanding gross margin in 2016
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08:20 EDTSBUXStarbucks sees no impact from economic weakness in China
Says lunch and afternoon offerings are increasingly relevant to customers. Says has started to roll out Evenings program in multiple stores. Says food makes up 20% of sales, up from 17% a few years ago. Says goal to have food make up 25% of sales. Says Morning Daypart sales up 22% over past five years. Says "a lot of opportunity" in lunch. Says breakfast sandwich sales have doubled over past three years. Says all comp growth in China is traffic. Says growing store portfolio in China at 30% per year clip. Sees no impact from economic weakness in China.
08:15 EDTSBUXStarbucks CFO: 1,500 stores in U.S. have Clover machines, up 50% y/y
Says 1,500 stores have Clover machines now in the U.S., up 50% year over year. Sees selling premium coffees in more international markets. Sees opening 500 larger-format reserve cafes. Says focusing on elevating tea presence in stores. Says Teavana brand driving revenue growth, contributing to comp growth. Plans to have Teavana in more Starbucks stores worldwide.
08:10 EDTSBUXStarbucks sees annual EPS growth of at least 15%
Sees annual revenue growth of about 10%. Says at mid-to-single digit comps each quarter. Says growing comps at 8%. Says playing "the long game." Says growth built on innovation, store experience. Says will see softness in topline unless it invests heavily in store experience. Says food is growing faster than beverage in U.S. stores. Says started to invest in "partner digital." Says customer-facing digital apps and technology is industry leading, though lagging behind in partner-facing digital technology. Says employee turnover is down. Comments taken from Morgan Stanley Global Consumer and Retail Conference.
07:53 EDTSIRISirius XM management to meet with Deutsche Bank
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07:19 EDTSBUXDunkin' Donuts tests mobile ordering app, Bloomberg reports
Dunkin' Donuts, owned by Dunkin' Brands (DNKN), is aiming to play catch up to Starbucks (SBUX) by testing a mobile ordering and delivery service in certain U.S. markets, Bloomberg reports. Starting Wednesday, 124 Dunkin' locations in Portland, Maine, will let customers order ahead of time through an app, the report says. Roughly 19 cafes in Dallas are also testing the delivery, with additional locations in Atlanta, Chicago, L.A., and Washington coming soon, the report says. Reference Link
05:11 EDTGMCRStocks with implied volatility movement; GMCR CHK
Stocks with implied volatility movement; Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR) 94, Chesapeake (CHK) 99 according to iVolatility.
November 17, 2015
10:20 EDTULTAOptions with increasing implied volatility
Options with increasing implied volatility: SGMS HZNP CSC ULTA RH BURL GME AEO BBRY TIF
10:01 EDTSIRIAudi selects Sirius XM Connective Vehicle Services for Audi Connect
Sirius XM (SIRI) and Audi (AUDVF) of America announced that Audi has selected Sirius XM Connected Vehicle Services Inc., a unit of SiriusXM, to power emergency services for the next generation of Audi connect. The new emergency services will be available beginning with the model year 2017 Audi Q7, which goes on sale in January 2016.
08:29 EDTULTAULTA Beauty December volatility elevated into Q3 and outlook
ULTA Beauty November call option implied volatility is at 41, December is at 52, March is at 41; compared to its 52-week range of 17 to 54, suggesting large near term price movement into the expected release of Q3 results on December 3.
08:22 EDTCELGSignificant Celgene overhang removed, says JMP Securities
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07:58 EDTGMCRKeurig Green Mountain volatility elevated into Q4 and outlook
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07:52 EDTSBUXMorgan Stanley to hold a conference
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November 16, 2015
17:02 EDTSBUXPoint72 added to lululemon position, subtracted from Netflix position
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13:11 EDTCELGCelgene jumps 2% after defeating Kyle Bass patent challenge
Shares of Celgene moved higher after the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office declined to review a Revlimid patent expiring in 2019. The USPTO found that that Bass's Coalition for Affordable Drugs was unlikely to succeed, according to Bloomberg. Shares of Celgene are up 2%, or $1.64, to $190.13 in afternoon trading. The agency is reviewing two other patents on the drug.
13:08 EDTCELGCelgene defeats Bass challenege on Revlimid patent, Bloomberg reports
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10:43 EDTULTAOptions with increasing implied volatility
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