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July 9, 2014
18:09 EDTLL, LOW, HD, TTSLumber Liquidators plummets after cutting full-year outlook
Shares of hardwood flooring and accessories retailer Lumber Liquidators (LL) are sinking in after-hours trading after the company cut its fiscal 2014 outlook. It also forecast second quarter results far below analysts' consensus estimates. WHAT'S NEW: After the bell, Lumber Liquidators forecast Q2 earnings per share of 59c-61c, far short of the consensus estimate of 90c. Q2 sales came in at $263.1M, also well below estimates of $303.21M. Comparable store sales decreased 7.1% for the quarter, and the company expects gross margin in Q2 to contract year over year. WHAT'S NOTABLE: Due to the weak Q2 performance, the company cut its FY14 EPS view to $2.65-$3.00 from $3.25-$3.60, versus consensus of $3.34. It also lowered its FY14 revenue outlook to $1.05B-$1.1B from $1.15B-$1.2B, versus consensus of $1.16B. It forecast comparable store net sales in the low single digits, either positive or negative, compared to its previous view of an increase ranging from mid to high single digits. It sees opening a total of 33 to 37 new store locations in the expanded showroom format, down from the previous view of 35 to 40. CEO Lynch said, "A number of the factors weighing on our second quarter results are likely to continue in the second half of 2014. While we believe the third quarter may be weaker than we originally anticipated, we have a strong sense of urgency and we expect to regain traction to deliver operating margin expansion in the second half and in coming years." PRICE ACTION: In evening trading, Lumber Liquidators fell $13.52, or 19.2%, to $56.90 on heavy trading volume. OTHERS TO WATCH: Other companies in the flooring space include Tile Shop (TTS), down 5%, Home Depot (HD), down 1%, and Lowe's (LOW), down 1.8%.
News For LL;HD;LOW;TTS From The Last 14 Days
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November 17, 2015
09:15 EDTHDOn The Fly: Pre-market Movers
UP AFTER EARNINGS: Nuance (NUAN), up 9.1%... Cheetah Mobile (CMCM), up 7.7%... Eros International (EROS), up 12.8%... Home Depot (HD), up 3.1%...Wal-Mart (WMT), up 2.2%. ALSO HIGHER: Ocera Therapeutics (OCRX), up 14.8% after announcing Phase 1 study results for the company's oral formulation of OCR-002... Fitbit (FIT), up 2.4% after being upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill. DOWN AFTER EARNINGS: Dicks Sporting Goods (DKS), down 15.4%... Urban Outfitters (URBN), down 12.8%. ALSO LOWER: Osiris Therapeutics (OSIR), up 25.5% after being downgraded to Sell from Hold at Brean Capital... Angie's List (ANGI), down 8.7% after board unanimously determines not to pursue IAC (IACI) proposal... Clovis Oncology (CLVS), down 4.1% after receiving downgrades from Goldman and WallachBeth... Chesapeake Energy (CHK), down 2.5% after being downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Sterne Agee CRT... Cooper Companies (COO), down 2% after being downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo.
09:11 EDTHDHome Depot sees positive signs in housing market despite moderating US GDP
The company said sales guidance is boosted by a strong dollar. Excluding ForEx, sales growth was negatively impacted by $1B. Expects a strong U.S. dollar in Q4. Comments taken from Q3 earnings conference call.
07:02 EDTLOWLowe's volatility increases into Q3 and outlook
Lowe's November call option implied volatility is at 67, December is at 31, January is at 27; compared to its 52-week range of 16 to 33, suggesting large near term price movement into the expected release of Q3 results on November 18.
06:03 EDTHDHome Depot sees FY15 EPS $5.36, consensus $5.31
Sees FY15 sales growth of 5.7%, consensus $87.74B. The FY15 EPS includes benefit of its intent to repurchase additional $2B of shares in Q4, bringing total 2015 share repurchases to $7B.
06:02 EDTHDHome Depot reports Q3 EPS excluding items $1.36, consensus $1.32
Reports Q3 revenue $21.82B, consensus $21.76B. Reports Q3 comparable store sales up 5.1%. Reports Q3 US comparable store sales up 7.3%.
05:24 EDTHDStocks with implied volatility above IV index mean; CRM HD
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November 16, 2015
15:59 EDTLLTilson repeats Wayfair currently largest short 'by far,' Bloomberg reports
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15:02 EDTHDNotable companies reporting before tomorrow's open
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14:44 EDTHDHome Depot volatility increases into Q3 and outlook
Home Depot November call option implied volatility is at 45, December is at 27; compared to its 52-week range of 16 to 32, suggesting large near term price movement into the expected release of Q3 results on November 17.
14:38 EDTHDHome Depot November 120 straddle priced for 4.4% movement into Q3
14:28 EDTHDHome Depot technical notes ahead of earnings
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10:40 EDTHDEarnings Watch: Home Depot reports following recent rout among retailers
Home Depot (HD), a home improvement retailer, is scheduled to report third quarter results before the market opens on Tuesday, November 17, with a conference call scheduled for 9:00 am ET. EXPECTATIONS: Analysts are looking for earnings per share of $1.32 on revenue of $21.76B, according to First Call. The consensus range for EPS is $1.28-$1.37 on revenue of $21.16B-$22B. LAST QUARTER: On August 18, Home Depot reported second quarter adjusted EPS of $1.71 on revenue of $24.83B, generally in line with analysts' consensus estimates of $1.71 and $24.69B, respectively. The company said same-store sales increased 4.2% year-over-year, with U.S. SSS up 5.7%. The company raised its fiscal year 2015 EPS growth view to 13% from 11%-12% and its FY15 revenue growth forecast to 5.2%-6% from 4%-4.6%. The company previously raised its FY15 EPS growth view to 11%-12% and revenue growth view to 4.2%-4.8% from 3.5%-4.7%. Home Depot also said it sees FY15 SSS to be up 4.1%-4.9% y/y, an increase from its prior view of 4%-4.6% growth. Home Depot said at the time that it expected to repurchase an additional $3.9B of shares during the remainder of the year for a total of $7B. NEWS: On its last earnings conference call, Home Depot said the increased guidance reflects the outperformance of Q2 and the expected benefits of the Interline Brands acquisition. The company also noted that it will tap the long-term debt markets in the fall. During the quarter, Home Depot completed the $1.63B acquisition of Interline. STREET RESEARCH: UBS raised its price target on Home Depot to $138 from $129 on the day after its last earnings release, saying it sees several factors that could drive upside, including the addition of the Interline platform and system enhancements. PRICE ACTION: Last week, while retailers Macy's (M), Nordstrom (JWN) and numerous others in the space reported worse than expected quarterly results and gave downbeat guidance, Home Depot shares declined about 4.7%. Over the last three months, Home Depot shares are up about 1%. In early trading ahead of Tuesday's earnings, shares in Home Depot slipped about 0.25% to $119.74.
05:28 EDTHDStocks with implied volatility movement; HD ETP
Stocks with implied volatility movement; Home Depot (HD) 26, Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) 49 according to iVolatility.
November 13, 2015
13:46 EDTLOWLowe's volatility elevated into Q3 and outlook
Lowe's November call option implied volatility is at 47, December is at 29, January is at 25; compared to its 52-week range of 16 to 33, suggesting large near term price movement into the expected release of Q3 results on November 18.
November 11, 2015
12:51 EDTHDHome Depot volatility elevated into Q3 and outlook
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November 10, 2015
11:06 EDTLL, HDBattleground: Wayfair pits noted short sellers against Wall Street analysts
Shares of Wayfair (W), which describes itself as "one of the world's largest online destinations for home furnishings and decor," are sharply lower following its report last night of its third quarter results. The company posted a loss that was not as bad as forecast, reported better than expected revenues and guided to higher than expected sales in its upcoming quarter, but its stock is falling as bears and bulls debate its prospects for future profitability. BEARS: Whitney Tilson of Kase Capital Management, who previously accused Lumber Liquidators (LL) of selling wood with dangerous levels of formaldehyde, is making the same claims against Ark Floors, a California importer that has sold its products via Wayfair and through (WMT), reported The New York Times. Jane Carpenter, a spokeswoman for Wayfair, said the company had previously removed all of Ark's laminate from its website and said it had sold just 10 orders for Ark products since December 2014, including one order through, the report noted. According to a letter that Tilson sent to investors last night, published on Seeking Alpha, he stated that Wayfair is currently his largest short position "by far." Tilson noted that Wayfair competes head-to-head versus Amazon (AMZN), Home Depot (HD), Target (TGT), and Williams-Sonoma (WSM) and he believes the company's chances of "ever reaching breakeven, much less earning a profit, much less earning enough of a profit to justify a $4B market cap are close to zero," he wrote. Tilson predicts the stock will be below $10 within a year. Short-selling blog Citron Research, which has also previously disclosed a short position in Wayfair, linked to a Wall Street Journal article in an October 20 tweet, saying UPS (UPS) "destroys" Wayfair's core model of free shipping on oversized items. The Journal article detailed the shipping giant's plans to charge websites that share "generous shipping discounts with vendors." BULLS: Piper Jaffray analyst Neely Tamminga raised her price target for Wayfair to $73 from $60 this morning, saying the company posted "exceptional" growth in Q3 amid an otherwise "lackluster" retail environment. After the New York Times article citing Wayfair's association with a vendor viewed as at-risk given a short-seller's testing of laminate flooring, Tamminga points out that all laminate flooring accounts for 0.2% of the company's sales. She continues to recommend Wayfair as a top pick for 2015. Analysts at Wells Fargo previously said in September that reports on Wayfair by short sellers included many inaccuracies. For example, Wells said that shorts' view that Wayfair loses money on every transaction relies on a "flawed view" of the company's customer acquisition costs and payback. Shorts compare Wayfair with Overstock (OSTK), but Wayfair is growing much more quickly that the latter company, Wells stated. According to the firm, which kept an Outperform rating on the shares, Wayfair has by far the highest organic revenue growth rate among U.S. consumer companies. PRICE ACTION: In morning trading, Wayfair fell $5.08, or 11.2%, to $40.50 per share.
10:53 EDTHDWhitney Tilson sees Wayfair trading below $10 within a year
Noted short-seller Whitney Tilson explained in a Seeking Alpha post why Wayfair (W) is his largest short position. He predicts the stock will be below $10 within a year. The online retailer is trading down $4.74 to $41.10 after reporting Q3 results. A New York Times article on one of Wayfair's vendors producing potentially toxic Chinese-made laminate flooring shows the company's business model is "completely out of control," Tilson argues. In addition, the odds of the online retailer ever reaching breakeven are "close to zero," he contends, citing the competition Wayfair faces from (AMZN), Home Depot (HD), Target (TGT) and Williams-Sonoma (WSM). Reference Link
10:34 EDTLLWayfair flooring vendor accused of selling tainted products, NY Times reports
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10:34 EDTLLOptions with decreasing implied volatility
Options with decreasing implied volatility: ZSPH UBNT AWAY KATE SGMS ZG LL ANET DATA RAX
09:16 EDTHDAmazon says Amazon Echo to be available in 3,000 stores in the U.S.
Amazon (AMZN) announced that Amazon Echo will be available in more than 3,000 stores around the country in time for the holiday shopping season. Customers will be able to visit select locations of The Home Depot (HD), Staples (SPLS), Sears (SHLD), Brookstone, RadioShack (RSHCQ), Fred Meyer, P.C. Richard & Son, as well as several other retailers to experience and purchase Echo.
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