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August 1, 2014
14:10 EDTHOG, PIIHarley-Davidson hurt more than seems by Indian Motorcycles, says Raymond James
After analyzing the impact of Polaris’ (PII) launch of Indian Motorcycles through the first half of 2014, Raymond James notes that Harley-Davidson sold roughly 13x the number of bikes as Indian and Polaris' Victory brand combined. However, the firm thinks the launch of Indian is more impaction than the number would suggest,as Polaris.' U.S. retail sales of motorcycles jumped about 50%, while Harley-Davidson's U.S. retail motorcycle sales increased just 1.1% in the same period, according to the firm. Moreover, Harley-Davidson sells Street 500 bikes with smaller engines than any bike sold by Polaris, the firm stated. Excluding these bikes, Harley-Davidson's sales dropped by 1,200 units in 1H14, according to Raymond James, who keeps an Underperform rating on Harley-Davidson.
News For HOG;PII From The Last 14 Days
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January 28, 2016
09:47 EDTHOGHarley-Davidson rallies after results
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09:21 EDTHOGHarley-Davidson sees FY16 CapEx $255M-$275M
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09:19 EDTHOGOn The Fly: Pre-market Movers
UP AFTER EARNINGS: Facebook (FB), up 13.9%... Under Armour (UA), up 14.6%... MicroStrategy (MSTR), up 8.9%... Harley-Davidson (HOG), up 8%... Paypal (PYPL), up 6%... Mellanox (MLNX), up 7.9%... Cirrus Logic (CRUS), up 6.2%... Alibaba (BABA), up 4.5%. ALSO HIGHER: Neos Therapeutics (NEOS), up 61.4% after the FDA approved Adzenys XR-ODT for the treatment of ADHD... Exelixis (EXEL), up 4.7% after the U.S. FDA determined the company's New Drug Application for cabozantinib is sufficiently complete... Kinder Morgan (KMI), up 6.7% after being upgraded at Credit Suisse and Stifel. DOWN AFTER EARNINGS: OSI Systems (OSIS), down 21.3%... ServiceNow (NOW), down 22.3%... eBay (EBAY), down 11.5%... InvenSense (INVN), down 10.5%... Juniper Networks (JNPR), down 9.3%... Hologic (HOLX), down 4.4%... Abbott Laboratories (ABT), down 3.6%... Potash (POT), down 2.1%... Qualcomm (QCOM), down 3.6%.
08:50 EDTHOGHarley-Davidson saw roughly 7% CAGR to Outreach customers over last 5 years
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06:59 EDTHOGHarley-Davidson sees Q1 motorcycle shipments of 78K-83K
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06:59 EDTHOGHarley-Davidson sees 2016 motorcycles shipments up 1%-3%
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06:58 EDTHOGHarley-Davidson reports Q4 EPS 22c, consensus 19c
Reports Q4 revenue $1.01B, consensus $1.03B.
January 27, 2016
14:34 EDTHOGNotable companies reporting before tomorrow's open
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11:41 EDTHOGHarley-Davidson volatility elevated into Q4 and outlook
Harley-Davidson February call option implied volatility is at 48, March is at 41; compared to its 52-week range of 19 to 49, suggesting large near term price movement into the expected release of Q4 results on January 28.
11:31 EDTHOGEarnings Watch: Analysts remain bearish on Harley-Davidson ahead of Q4 earnings
Harley-Davidson (HOG) is scheduled to report fourth quarter results before the market open on Thursday, January 28, with a conference call scheduled for 9:00 am EDT. Harley-Davidson is a motorcycle manufacturer that produces heavyweight bikes and a complete line of motorcycle parts, accessories, and general merchandise. EXPECTATIONS: Analysts are looking for earnings per share of 19c on revenue of $1.03B, according to First Call. The consensus range for EPS is 11c-24c on revenue of $972.2M-$1.08B. LAST QUARTER: Harley-Davidson reported third quarter EPS of 69c, missing analysts' estimates for 78c, on revenue of $1.32B, which beat the consensus of $1.21B. The company said that dealers worldwide sold 72,178 new Harley-Davidson motorcycles in Q3 compared to 73,217 motorcycles in the year-ago period. In the U.S., dealers sold 48,918 new Harley-Davidson motorcycles in the quarter compared to sales of 50,167 motorcycles in the year-ago period. Harley-Davidson said at the time that it expects to ship 47,000-52,000 motorcycles in Q4 compared to 47,157 motorcycles shipped in the year-ago period. Additionally, the company lowered its motorcycle shipment guidance for fiscal 2015 to 265,000-270,000, which is about flat to down 2% from 2014, a decline from FY shipment guidance of 275,000-281,000 motorcycles. The company said it expects FY15 operating margin of approximately 16%-17% for the motorcycles segment, compared to prior guidance of 18%-19% for full-year operating margin. NEWS: On its last earnings conference call, Harley-Davidson said that due to headwinds in recalls, currency and ramped up competition, its Q3 performance did not meet expectations. CEO Matthew Levatich noted that "We know we can do better, and we will." Recently, The Wall Street Journal said that Levatich plans to ramp up the company's efforts to appeal to younger adults and women in general, planning to raise its marketing spending by 65% in 2016. STREET RESEARCH: On the day after its last earnings report, several analysts were bearish on Harley-Davidson, including BMO Capital and JPMorgan, which downgraded the stock. In November, Barclays analyst Felicia R. Hendrix said the company's management is "too optimistic near-term" on a recovery. On January 21, William Blair analyst Sharon Zackfia believes Harley-Davidson's domestic retail sales trends remained soft in Q4, even as the company began to lap currency-related discounting by competitors that began late last year. Zackfia sees a low-single-digit decline in retail sales growth in the U.S. in Q4, which would be the fifth consecutive quarter of retail sales declines. Zackfia sees Harley's 2016 production growth guidance being cut to 1%-2% from 3%-5%. PRICE ACTION: Over the last three months, Harley-Davidson shares are down about 19%. In late morning trading ahead of its Q4 earnings report, shares are down fractionally.
11:17 EDTHOGStocks with call strike movement; AMZN HOG
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January 26, 2016
16:20 EDTPIIOn The Fly: Top stock stories for Tuesday
Stocks began Tuesday in positive territory, once again trading in tandem with oil prices. The Dow led today's gains thanks in part to earnings reports from 3M (MMM), Proctor & Gamble (PG) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), though the Nasdaq struggled early in the day. Following a better than expected reading on consumer confidence and a rip in oil prices, stocks continued to pile on gains in the afternoon, with the major indexes all going out near their highs. ECONOMIC EVENTS: In the U.S., the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index rose 5.8% from the prior year in November, topping expectations for a 5.7% year-over-year increase. The separate FHFA house price index showed a monthly gain of 0.5% in November, matching the consensus forecast. Markit's services PMI for January came in at 53.7, missing the 54.0 forecast. The preliminary reading of the Conference Board's consumer confidence index for January came in at 98.1, topping the 96.5 reading that was expected. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei index fell 2.35% while China's Shanghai composite slid 6.4%. COMPANY NEWS: Earnings season accelerated Tuesday as major members of the bluechip Dow Jones Industrial Average posted results before the opening bell. 3M lead the pack with a gain of 5.16% to $144.79, while Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble and DuPont (DD) added 4.86%, 2.55% and 0.89%, respectively, following their reports... AIG (AIG) provided its much-anticipated strategy update, committing to return at least $25B to shareholders over the next two years and announcing the sale of AIG Advisor Group to Lightyear Capital and PSP Investments. The company, under ongoing pressure from activist investors including Carl Icahn, also said it will publicly offer a portion of its United Guaranty unit, though it expressly rejected a full company breakup. MAJOR MOVERS: Among the notable gainers was Terex (TEX), which surged 36.5% to $20.48 after receiving a $30 per share acquisition offer from China's Zoomlion. Terex peers Manitowoc (MTW), Joy Global (JOY) and Oshkosh (OSK) also saw respective gains of 16%, 9.5% and 5.5% after the news. In other M&A news, FirstMerit (FMER) jumped 18.35% after a merger agreement with Huntington Bancshares (HBAN). Also higher was Weight Watchers (WTW), which rose nearly 20% to $13.32 after noted shareholder and partner Oprah Winfrey tweeted a video detailing her progress and weight loss using the company's program. In addition, Sprint (S) soared 18.65% to $2.99 after reporting losses for the quarter that were not as steep as expected and raising its fiscal year EBITDA forecast. Among the noteworthy losers was Leidos (LDOS), which declined 9% to $48.83 after reaching an agreement with Lockheed Martin (LMT) to combine with the company's realigned Information Systems & Global Solutions unit in a Reverse Morris Trust transaction. Also lower was Centene (CNC), which lost 2.26% to $59.99 after revealing it has potentially misplaced six hard drives containing personal data on nearly 1M individuals. Meanwhile, Polaris (PII) dipped 9.15% to $72.99 after its fourth quarter report. INDEXES: The Dow rose 282.01, or 1.78%, to 16,167.23, the Nasdaq gained 49.18, or 1.09%, to 4,567.67, and the S&P 500 advanced 26.55, or 1.41%, to 1,903.63.
13:53 EDTHOGHarley-Davidson volatility elevated into Q4 and outlook
Harley-Davidson February call option implied volatility is at 48, March is at 39; compared to its 52-week range of 18 to 49, suggesting large near term price movement into the expected release of Q4 results on January 27.
12:16 EDTPIIOn The Fly: Top stock stories at midday
Stocks began the session in positive territory moved cautiously in the opening segment, before shooting higher following the better than expected consumer confidence reading. The Dow is the biggest winner and is up more than 1.5% while the Nasdaq has been lagging but is up more than 0.6%. ECONOMIC EVENTS: In the U.S., the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index rose 5.8% from the prior year in November, topping expectations for a 5.7% year-over-year increase. The separate FHFA house price index showed a monthly gain of 0.5% in November, matching the consensus forecast. Markit's services PMI for January came in at 53.7, missing the 54.0 forecast. The preliminary reading of the Conference Board's consumer confidence index for January came in at 98.1, topping the 96.5 reading that was expected. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei index fell 2.35% while China's Shanghai composite slid 6.4%. COMPANY NEWS: The volume of earnings reports took a step up, with four members of the bluechip Dow Jones Industrial Average posting results before the opening bell this morning. All four advanced on the heels of their reports, with 3M (MMM) leading the pack with a gain of 4.5% despite earnings, excluding restructuring charges, that missed the consensus forecast. The industrial conglomerate did, however, affirm its performance expectations for the new fiscal year. Meanwhile, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) rose 3%, Procter & Gamble (PG) gained 2.7% and DuPont (DD) added 1.6%... AIG (AIG) provided its much-anticipated strategy update, committing to return at least $25B to shareholders over next two years and announcing that it has agreed to sell AIG Advisor Group to private equity firm Lightyear Capital and Canadian pension investment manager PSP Investments. AIG also said it will pursue an initial public offering of United Guaranty in mid-2016 to sell up to 19.9% of the outstanding shares as a first step towards a full separation. However, the insurer said it believes a full breakup, as espoused by investor Carl Icahn, would detract from shareholder value, arguing that a lack of diversification benefits would reduce capital available for distribution and there would be a loss of tax benefits. MAJOR MOVERS: Among the notable gainers was Avis Budget (CAR), which rallied 7% after the company raised its share repurchase authorization by $300M and after SRS Investment reported a 9.5% stake in the company. Also higher were Sprint (S) and Coach (COH), which gained 20% and 11%, respectively, after reporting quarterly earnings. In addition, FirstMerit (FMER) rose 16% after reporting quarterly earnings and announcing that it will merge with Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) in a deal valued at $3.4B. Huntington Bancshares fell 10% after the FirstMerit merger agreement was announced. Also lower was Stratasys (SSYS), which dropped 6% after JPMorgan downgraded the shares to Neutral from Overweight. In addition, Polaris (PII) and Waters Corporation (WAT) were down 11% and 4.5%, respectively, after reporting quarterly earnings. INDEXES: Near midday, the Dow was up 273.66, or 1.72%, to 16,158.88, the Nasdaq was up 49.20, or 1.09%, to 4,567.69, and the S&P 500 was up 25.96, or 1.38%, to 1,903.04.
11:42 EDTPIIOptions with increasing call volume; TEX MTW MTG SEE KBH SNDK WDC VALE VIAB PII
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09:15 EDTPIIOn The Fly: Pre-market Movers
UP AFTER EARNINGS: Sprint (S), up 19.5%... Rambus (RMBS), up 8%... Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), up 11.3%... Sanmina (SANM), up 9.9%... Coach (COH), up 4.9%. ALSO HIGHER: Firstmerit (FMER), up 21.5% following the merger announcement with Huntington Bancshares (HBAN). DOWN AFTER EARNINGS: Polaris (PII), down 4.2%. ALSO LOWER: Huntington Bancshares, down 6.8% after announcing a merger with Firstmerit. Stratasys (SSYS), down 3.7% after being downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan.
06:10 EDTPIIPolaris Industries sees FY16 EPS $6.20-$6.80, consensus $6.94
Sees FY16 sales to be down 2% to up 3%, consensus $4.82B. Ongoing currency volatility and industry retail sales uncertainty are the major reasons for the wider guidance range for sales and earnings per share for 2016.
06:09 EDTPIIPolaris Industries reports Q4 ORV and Snowmobile sales down 18% to $862M
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06:07 EDTPIIPolaris Industries: 2016 outlook reflects volatile year in powersports
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06:02 EDTPIIPolaris Industries reports Q4 EPS $1.66, consensus $1.64
Reports Q4 revenue $1.11B, consensus $1.08B
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