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February 12, 2013
09:58 EDTFOSLFossil gaps up sharply, levels to watch
The company's earnings report this morning beat by a penny for its Q4, but the shares appear to be up on a licensing deal signed with Tory Burch. Piper Jaffray bumped its price target up on the shares to $109, below were the stock is currently trading. At the current price of $113.55, next resistance is at $114.66. Support is at $110.61.
News For FOSL From The Last 14 Days
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November 13, 2015
10:19 EDTFOSLRetailer weakness renewed following Nordstrom, J.C. Penney reports
Shares of department store retailers, and others in the retail space, plunged on Friday morning following third quarter earnings reports from Nordstrom (JWN) and J.C. Penney (JCP). WHAT'S NEW: Nordstrom reported Q3 earnings per share of 42c, against analyst estimates of 72c, Q3 revenue of $3.24B below consensus estimates of $3.37B. Same-store sales for the quarter increased 0.9%. Nordstrom said its quarterly performance reflected softer trends that were generally consistent across channels and merchandise categories. The company also lowered its FY15 adjusted EPS view to $3.40-$3.50 from $3.70-$3.80, against analysts' expectations of $3.75, lowered its FY15 revenue guidance to up 7.5%-8% from 8.5%-9.5% and lowered its FY15 SSS view to 2.5%-3% from 3.5%-4.5%. Meanwhile, J.C. Penney reported a smaller than expected loss, with adjusted EPS of (47c) on revenue of $2.9B, beating analysts' estimates of (55c) and $2.88B, respectively. Same-store sales for the quarter were up 6.4%. The company reaffirmed its fiscal year 2015 view for a 4%-5% increase in SSS and said on its earnings conference call that it believes fourth quarter comps will be in line with FY15 expectations and also reaffirmed expectations of $1.2B in EBITDA in 2017. The company still expects to be cash flow breakeven in FY15 and confirmed reports that it recently cut 300 positions at its Plano, Texas office. WHAT'S NOTABLE: Macy's (M), which generally competes more with Nordstrom, reported Q3 revenue that missed analysts' expectations on Wednesday, and the retailer cut its FY15 EPS view to $4.20-$4.30 excluding charges from $4.70-$4.80, also well below estimates calling for $4.65, with total sales down 2.7%-3.1%, compared to previous guidance of down about 1%. Macy's now sees FY15 SSS on an owned plus licensed basis down by 1.8% to 2.2%, compared with previous guidance of approximately flat. Macy's noted "tepid" spending by U.S. customers in Q3, and provided Q4 EPS of $2.54-$2.64, well below analysts' consensus estimates of $2.90. Kohl's (KSS), which competes more closely with J.C. Penney, reported Q3 results that beat analysts' estimates on Thursday, with EPS of 75c on revenue of $4.43B, against estimates for 69c and $4.4B, respectively, and SSS up 1%. The company said it believes it can "hit" FY15 EPS guidance of the low end of $4.40-$4.60, but forecast negative weather trends in Q4. Macy's is more dependent on tourist spending than Kohl's. ANALYSTS' REACTION: Deutsche Bank analyst Paul Trussell says he's "disappointed and shaken" by Nordstrom's weaker than expected Q3 results and guidance and cut his price target to $66 from $84. Citi analyst Paul Lejuez cut his price target on Nordstrom to $65 from $92 and called the retailer's results a "sucker punch." Credit Suisse analyst Michael Extein also lowered his target on Nordstrom to $60 from $75. Stifel maintained its price target on Nordstrom and said it expects ROIC to improve and EPS growth to accelerate over the longer term. REPORTS TO COME: TJX Companies (TJX) and Ross Stores (ROST), which are also being hit by the plunge in the retail sector, will report quarterly earnings on November 17 and November 19, respectively. PRICE ACTION: In morning trading, shares of Nordstrom are down 17% to $52.56 and shares of J.C. Penney are lower by nearly 9% to $8.01. Much of the rest of the retail sector is lower this morning, with Macy's down over 3%, Kohl's plunging 8%, TJX down more than 5% and Ross down nearly 5%. Fossil (FOSL), which also reported earnings yesterday, is down almost 32%.
10:16 EDTFOSLOptions with decreasing implied volatility
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09:45 EDTFOSLFossil accelerates to the downside
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09:27 EDTFOSLOn The Fly: Pre-market Movers
UP AFTER EARNINGS: Blue Buffalo (BUFF), up 8.2%... Applied Materials (AMAT), up 3.8%... Planet Fitness (PLNT), up 9.8%... Lipocine (LPCN), up 16.2% after reporting quarterly results and that the FDA has assigned a Prescription Drug User Fee Act goal date of June 28, 2016. ALSO HIGHER: Mylan (MYL), up 10.9% after Perrgo (PRGO) shareholders did not tender enough shares for the hostile takeover bid to succeed... Plug Power (PLUG), up 7.3% after entering into a strategic supply agreement with 3M (MMM)... Yum! Brands (YUM), up after reporting that October China Same-Store Sales are up 5%. DOWN AFTER EARNINGS: Fossil (FOSL), down 24.5%... Fossil (JWN), down 20.6%... El Pollo LoCo (LOCO), down 15.1%... Cisco (CSCO), down 4.1%.... Tyco (TYC), down 4.1%... J.C. Penney (JCP), down 6.8%. ALSO LOWER: Fitbit (FIT), down 8.4% after 17M share Secondary priced at $29.00... GameStop (GME), down 8% after being downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight at Pacific Crest... Lions Gate (LGF), down 2.6% after 3.4M share Spot Secondary priced at $39.43... Perrigo is down 10.5% after shareholders did not tender enough shares for the hostile takeover bid to succeed.
06:46 EDTFOSLFossil price target lowered to $25 from $46 at Piper Jaffray
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05:45 EDTFOSLFossil price target lowered to $40 from $56 at Nomura
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05:30 EDTFOSLFossil implied volatility of 62 at upper end of index mean range
November 12, 2015
19:00 EDTFOSLOn The Fly: After Hours Movers
UP AFTER EARNINGS: USA Technologies (USAT), up 15.9%... Blue Buffalo (BUFF), up 7.3%... Planet Fitness (PLNT), up 12.3%... Darling Ingredients (DAR), up 8.1%... Applied Materials (AMAT), up 3.8%... Lipocine (LPCN), up 19.9% after reporting quarterly results and that the FDA has assigned a Prescription Drug User Fee Act goal date of June 28, 2016. ALSO HIGHER: Syngenta (SYT), up 14.5% after Bloomberg reported that the company rejected an initial $42B bid from ChemChina... Yum! Brands (YUM), up 4.1% after reporting that October China Same-Store Sales are up 5%. DOWN AFTER EARNINGS: bebe stores (BEBE), down 10.5%... Nordstrom (JWN), down 20.3%... Fossil (FOSL), down 14.7%... Cisco (CSCO), down 4.8%... El Pollo LoCo (LOCO), down 8.7%... Tahoe Resources (TAHO), down 7.2%. ALSO LOWER: Paycom Software (PAYC), down 5.2%... Netflix (NFLX) down 1% after Dow Jones reported that Hulu, a joint venture of Disney (DIS), Comcast (CMCSA, CMCSK), and Fox (FOX, FOXA), is in discussions to sell a stake in the company to Time Warner (TWX)... TJX Companies (TJX), down 4%, Burlington Stores (BURL), down 5.3%, Macy's (M), down 1.6%, Target (TGT), down 1.9%, J.C. Penney (JCP), down 1.4%, and Kohl's (KSS), down 1.3%, after Nordstrom reported quarterly results and cut its fiscal 2015 guidance.
16:11 EDTFOSLFossil drops sharply after results, Misfit acquisition, outlook
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16:10 EDTFOSLFossil down 12.3% to $44.91 in after-hours trading following Q3 results
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16:09 EDTFOSLFossil says Q3 was negatively impacted by strength of U.S. dollar
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16:09 EDTFOSLFossil continues to see FY15 'significantly' negatively impacted by FX changes
For FY15, the company continues to expect that its results will be significantly negatively impacted by foreign currency changes as well as restructuring charges, which were largely recorded in the first half of the fiscal year.
16:06 EDTFOSLFossil to acquire Misfit for $260M
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16:04 EDTFOSLFossil sees FY15 adjusted EPS $5.60-$6.20, consensus $5.08
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16:03 EDTFOSLFossil sees Q4 adjusted EPS $1.40-$2.00, consensus $2.12
Sees Q4 revenue to decrease in the range of 16.0% to 7.0%.
16:02 EDTFOSLFossil reports Q3 EPS $1.19, consensus $1.13
Reports Q3 revenue $771.3M, consensus $794.36M.
14:30 EDTFOSLNotable companies reporting after market close
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14:24 EDTFOSLFossil remains in downtrend ahead of earnings
The stock has been in a strong downtrend since November of 2013, with price last at $51.56 ahead of earnings. Shares are near an important support area at $50. If the news is a strong negative surprise and the $50 is broken on the downside, next support would be at $47.96 and then at $46.25. If the news is instead a bullish surprise, the first level of important resistance on the upside would be at the 10-week moving average at $54.82. A breakout above the 10-week would break the current downtrend leg. Next resistance levels to watch in that event would be at $55.38 and then at $58.65.
13:58 EDTFOSLFossil November weekly 52 straddle priced for 11.5% movement into Q3
08:09 EDTFOSLFossil volatility increases into Q3 and outlook
Fossil November weekly call option implied volatility is at 195, November is at 100, December is at 55; compared to its 52-week range of 20 to 61, suggesting large near term price movement into the expected release of Q3 results today.
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