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November 28, 2012
12:19 EDTTFM, COST, ARO, EXPR, KCG, BP, ANN, JOSB, GMCR, GES, AEOOn The Fly: Midday Wrap
Stocks on Wall Street were lower for much of the morning before recovering significantly near midday. Just as a late day sell-off yesterday was prompted by some cautious fiscal cliff commentary from a notable politician, today's turn-around was sparked by optimism from one. In today's case, the averages turned following comments from House Speaker John Boehner, who said he's "optimistic" a deal with Obama can be reached and that he is willing to put revenues on the table if accompanied by spending cuts... ECONOMIC EVENTS: In the U.S., new single-family home sales fell 0.3% in October to a seasonally adjusted 368,000-unit annual rate. Also, the government revised sharply lower its estimate for the prior month's sales, cutting its estimate for sales in September by 20,000 to a 369,000-unit rate. The EIA reported crude oil inventories drew down by 347,000 barrels last week, versus expectations for a 350,000 barrel build up. In Europe, Spainís bank restructuring was approved, paving the way for euro zone aid to be disbursed... COMPANY NEWS: The Environmental Protection Agency announced BP (BP) will be suspended from winning new contracts from the federal government until the oil major can demonstrate it meets business standards set by the U.S., though the action does not affect existing contracts. Shares of BP fell about 0.7% near noon... Several apparel retailers reported better than expected results and saw their shares advance, including Express (EXPR), American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) and Ann Inc. (ANN). This may or may not bode well for some of their peers expected to report after the bell, including Aeropostale (ARO) and Guess (GES)... Costco (COST) shares rose over 4% after reporting its November same store sales rose 6% and declaring a $7 per share special dividend... MAJOR MOVERS: Among the notable gainers was Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR), which soared 24% after its better than expected earnings and guidance set off a wave of price target increases around the Street. Also higher were shares of Knight Capital (KCG), which rose 14% to $3.39 after shareholder Getco proposed a complex takeover bid that values shares at $3.50 apiece but involves a cash component and a share dispersal following a merger. Among the noteworthy losers was The Fresh Market (TFM), down 14% after its CFO unexpectedly resigned to take another position and its shares were downgraded at Deutsche Bank and Northcoast. Also lower were shares of Jos. A Bank (JOSB), down 7% after it was unable to participate in the rally among clothing retailers as its revenue beat consensus but its earnings fell short... INDICES: Near noon, the Dow was up 16.36, or 0.13%, to 12,894.49; the Nasdaq was down 2.31, or 0.08%, to 2,965.48; and the S&P 500 was down 0.88, or 0.06%, to 1,398.06.
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November 18, 2015
14:44 EDTGMCRKeurig Green Mountain technical comments ahead of earnings
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14:38 EDTGMCRNotable companies reporting after market close
Notable companies reporting after the market close, with earnings consensus, include Salesforce (CRM), consensus 19c... L Brands (LB), consensus 52c... (CTRP), consensus 9c... NetApp (NTAP), consensus 57c... Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR), consensus 71c.
14:20 EDTGMCRKeurig Green Mountain November 40 straddle priced for 16.5% movement into Q4
12:41 EDTGMCREarnings Watch: Keurig CEO still confident of long-term goals ahead of Q4 report
Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR) is scheduled to report fourth quarter results after the market close on Wednesday, November 18 with a conference call scheduled for 5:00 pm ET. Keurig Green Mountain, formerly Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, is engaged in the specialty coffee and coffee maker businesses and owns the "Keurig" brand of single-serve coffee makers and products. EXPECTATIONS: Analysts are looking for earnings per share of 71c on revenue of $1.03B, according to First Call. The consensus range for EPS is 68c-74c on revenue of $1.07B-$1.2B. LAST QUARTER: On August 5, Keurig Green Mountain reported third quarter adjusted EPS of 80c, beating analysts' estimates of 79c, on revenue of $969.6M, missing consensus estimates of $1.04B. The company forecast Q3 adjusted EPS of 70c-75c on a sales decline of low teens compared to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2014. The company forecast FY15 adjusted EPS to decline in mid-single digits and net sales growth to be flat to up low-single digits compared to FY14. NEWS: In conjunction with its last earnings release, Keurig Green Mountain announced a $1B share repurchase authorization and said that based upon its preliminary estimates for fiscal 2016, the company expects its hot business to deliver modest adjusted EPS growth over fiscal 2015 inclusive of the expected productivity savings. The company also announced plans to reduce its workforce by 5% over the next few years, which is expected to generate about $300M in savings over the next three years with approximately $100M of savings in FY16. Brian Kelley, the company's chief executive officer, said that the company can still reach its long-term EPS goals and noted that the company experts a stronger FY15 holiday season than FY14. Kelley said that the company's new countertop device, the Kold machine, will drive long-term growth following recent sales declines in its core business, Reuters reported in September. Dow Jones said on October 21 that David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital shorted Keurig Green Mountain again. STREET RESEARCH: Canaccord lowered its price target on Keurig Green Mountain to $59 from $65 in a November note to clients and said they can't recommend buying the shares until the K-cup risk stabilizes, which could be helped by a strong holiday brewer sales season. On November 11, shares were downgraded to Negative from Mixed at OTR Global. PRICE ACTION: Over the last three months, Keurig Green Mountain shares are down over 19%. Year-to-date, shares are down roughly 69%. In afternoon trading ahead of the company's earnings, shares are up fractionally to $40.43.
08:47 EDTGMCRKeurig Green Mountain expanding KOLD beverage lineup with cocktail mixers
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05:11 EDTGMCRStocks with implied volatility movement; GMCR CHK
Stocks with implied volatility movement; Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR) 94, Chesapeake (CHK) 99 according to iVolatility.
November 17, 2015
10:20 EDTAEOOptions with increasing implied volatility
Options with increasing implied volatility: SGMS HZNP CSC ULTA RH BURL GME AEO BBRY TIF
10:16 EDTBPBP confirms exploring sale of Alabama petrochemical facility
BP confirmed that it has decided to market for sale its Decatur, Alabama, petrochemicals complex as part of a broader reorganization of the company's global petrochemicals business. BP said its refocused petrochemicals strategy is pursuing a competitively advantaged portfolio through world-scale, low-cost facilities that utilize BP proprietary technology including the production of purified terephthalic acid, or PTA, a key raw material in the production of polyester. BP is spending $200M to upgrade its Cooper River, S.C., plant and its sister facility in Geel, Belgium - the largest PTA-producing sites in the Americas and Europe, respectively. The investment will enable the two facilities to lower operating costs, improve reliability and reduce emissions. Earlier this year, BP also started up its new Zhuhai 3 unit in Guangdong Province, China. Using BP's latest technology and capable of producing up to 1.25M tons of PTA per year, Zhuhai 3 is the world's largest single-train PTA production unit as well as being one of the largest and most efficient PTA production units in the world. While BP's Decatur complex no longer fits with this strategy, the facility has been a major contributor to BP's U.S. petrochemicals business for many years. It makes chemicals essential for the production of thousands of items, from plastic water bottles to flat-screen televisions. BP expects to complete a sale of all or part of the facility provided a buyer can be found and an acceptable deal can be reached. Reference Link
09:48 EDTBPBP to explore sale of Alabama petrochemical plant, Bloomberg reports
Bloomberg cites e-mailed statement from BP.
07:58 EDTGMCRKeurig Green Mountain volatility elevated into Q4 and outlook
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November 16, 2015
06:51 EDTBPBig energy firms saw 70% earnings dip for first nine months, WSJ says
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November 13, 2015
16:24 EDTCOSTOn The Fly: Top stock stories for Friday
Stocks on Wall Street ended a tough week on a down note, falling after the Commerce Department reported that retail sales grew by an anemic 0.1% last month. This data comes on the heels of this week's downbeat quarterly report from Macy's (M) and a similarly disappointing report last night from peer Nordstrom (JWN). ECONOMIC EVENTS: In the U.S., retail sales rose 0.1% in the month of October, versus expectations for an increase of 0.3%. When autos and gas are removed, the core reading was up 0.3%, versus expectations for a rise of 0.4%. Producer prices fell 0.4%, versus expectations for them to be up 0.2%. When food and energy are removed, the core reading was down 0.3%, versus expectations for it to be up 0.1%. Business inventories grew 0.3% in September while sales were flat compared to August. Consumer sentiment, as measured by the preliminary print from the University of Michigan survey, improved 3.1 points to 93.1 in November, which was better than the 91.5 reading that was expected. In Europe, data showed that eurozone's economy grew by just 0.3% in the third quarter, which was a slowdown from the 0.4% GDP growth recorded three months earlier and weaker than the 0.4% consensus growth forecast. COMPANY NEWS: Shares of retailers broadly declined following the weaker than expected retail sales data reported by the government as well as third quarter earnings reports from Nordstrom and J.C. Penney (JCP), which fell 15% and 15.5% respectively. Virtually every mass-market, brick-and-mortar retailer was down today, from giants like Wal-Mart (WMT) and Costco (COST), to smaller retailers like Ross Stores (ROST) and Urban Outfitters (URBN)... Shares of Mylan (MYL) jumped 12.9% to $48.78 after the company's offer to acquire Perrigo (PRGO) failed, ending a seven-month fight between the two drug makers. Perrigo Chief Executive Officer Joseph Papa said he was "delighted" that his company's shareholders rejected the offer and the company added that it will immediately commence its previously announced $2B share buyback program, but its shares slid 6.16% to $146.90 in the wake of the shareholder vote... Cisco (CSCO) fell 5.8% after its first quarter earnings and revenue beat expectations but its guidance for the new quarter disappointed. A number of analysts that had been bullish on the name trimmed their price targets in response but also recommended the post-earnings weakness as a buying opportunity. MAJOR MOVERS: Among the notable gainers was Springleaf Holdings (LEAF), which surged $5.07, or 11.5%, to $49.27 after reaching a settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice that will allow the company to proceed with closing its previously announced acquisition of OneMain Financial from Citi (C). On the closing of the acquisition, the company will be renamed OneMain Holdings and has applied to the New York Stock Exchange to change its ticker symbol to "OMF," Springleaf noted. Also higher was Illumina (ILMN), which gained $10.26, or 6.6%, to $165.65 after being selected to replace Sigma-Aldrich (SIAL) in the S&P 500. Among the noteworthy losers was Fossil (FOSL), which plunged $18.62, or 36.5%, to $32.39 after the watchmaker gave lower than expected profit guidance for the upcoming quarter and said it continues to expect this fiscal year's results to be "significantly" negatively impacted by foreign currency changes. Also lower were shares of Vipshop (VIPS), which fell $5.03, or 27%, to $13.60 after issuing weaker than expected preliminary third quarter revenue guidance, which it said was partially driven by the warmer-than-expected fall weather in China. INDEXES: The Dow dropped 202.83, or 1.16%, to 17,245.24, the Nasdaq lost 77.20, or 1.54%, to 4,927.88, and the S&P 500 declined 22.93, or 1.12%, to 2,023.04.
08:05 EDTTFMRoundy's buyout shows Fresh Market undervalued, sayst Jefferies
Jefferies analyst Mark Wiltamuth says Kroger's (KR) acquisition of Roundy's (RNDY) reaffirms his view that The Fresh Market (TFM) is undervalued. Fresh Market shares trade at 6 times EV/EBITDA, below the 6.9 times EV/EBITDA paid by Kroger for Roundy's, and the company has a "superior" margin, free cash flow and growth profile, Wiltamuth tells investors in a research note. With a new CEO exploring strategic options, either a "buyout or a new turnaround effort are brewing" for Fresh Market, the analyst contends. He keeps a Buy rating on the stock with a $29 price target.
07:35 EDTKCGKCG Holdings reports 3.8M U.S. equities trades per day in Oct. in Market Making
In Market Making, KCG averaged $30.3B dollar volume traded, 4.8B shares traded, and 3.8M trades per day in U.S. equities. In Global Execution Services: KCG electronic execution averaged 310.3M shares traded per day in U.S. equities and KCG BondPoint averaged $142.3M per day in fixed income par value. As for the overall market conditions in October, consolidated U.S. equity volume averaged $283.7B in dollar volume and 7.1B shares traded per day. The realized volatility for the S&P 500 was 12.8. In October, there were 22 trading days in U.S. equities and 21 in fixed income.
November 12, 2015
16:18 EDTBPBP awards FleetCor long-term contract
FleetCor Technologies (FLT) announced that BP Products North America (BP) has extended its contract with FleetCor to provide commercial fleet card processing and program management for all of its fleet card products.
11:58 EDTGMCRStocks with call strike movement; GMCR ESV
Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR) March 55 call option implied volatility decreased 10% to 56, Ensco (ESV) March 19 call option implied volatility increased 6% to 55 according to iVolatility.
November 11, 2015
10:32 EDTGMCROptions with increasing implied volatility
Options with increasing implied volatility: STRP MW FTK RPTP MNK CVC GMCR ATML NUS BHI
09:59 EDTGMCROn The Fly: Analyst Downgrade Summary
Today's noteworthy downgrades include: Amedisys (AMED) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Mizuho... Apple Hospitality REIT (APLE) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Ladenburg... BioCryst (BCRX) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA/Merrill... Boot Barn (BOOT) downgraded to Hold from Buy at BB&T... C1 Financial (BNK) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James... Clarcor (CLC) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Avondale... EMC (EMC) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo... Eaton (ETN) downgraded on near-term challenges at Argus... Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR) downgraded to Negative from Mixed at OTR Global... Lennox (LII) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan... Mediaset (MDIUY) downgraded to Hold from Buy at HSBC... MetLife (MET) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley... Metaldyne Performance (MPG) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays... Oracle (ORCL) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley... Penn Virginia (PVA) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Canaccord... Rex Energy (REXX) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Northland... Rice Energy (RICE) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman... Rockwell Automation (ROK) downgraded to Underperform from Outperform at CLSA... Sabra Health Care (SBRA) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at SunTrust... SanDisk (SNDK) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein... Vestas Wind (VWDRY) downgraded to Hold from Buy at HSBC.
09:24 EDTGMCRKeurig Green Mountain downgraded to Negative from Mixed at OTR Global
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05:14 EDTGMCRStocks with implied volatility movement; FTK GMCR
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