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July 30, 2013
12:45 EDTCOH, AET, PBI, MOS, AGU, MRK, OSK, HMA, POT, HLF, PFE, WU, CYH, IPIOn The Fly: Midday Wrap
Stocks on Wall Street were higher at midday as a report on rising home prices along with some better than expected earnings reports supported the market. The second quarter earnings season, which is reaching its peak this week, may not be turning out to be as bad as some had feared. However, the week's biggest events may still be yet to come, as investors brace for tomorrow's conclusion of the Fedís two day FOMC meeting, along with the latest monthly jobs report, due Friday. ECONOMIC EVENTS: In the U.S., the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home-price index was up 12.2% from the prior year and was up about 1.0% from the prior month in May, which was close to in line with forecasts. The consumer confidence index for July fell to 80.3, which was a bit worse than the expectation for it to slip just slightly from its prior reading of 81.4. COMPANY NEWS: Several of the day's worst performing stocks were fertilizer companies after Russian potash producer Uralkali ended its cooperation with Belarus' Belaruskali. Following the news, Potash (POT) tumbled 20%, Mosaic (MOS) plunged 19%, Intrepid Potash (IPI) plummeted 30%, and Agrium (AGU) dropped nearly 5%... Among several notable healthcare names to announce quarterly results this morning, Pfizer (PFE) performed the best, rising almost 1% following its report. Its peer, Merck (MRK), slid about 1% after its own report, while health insurer Aetna (AET) was little changed in midday trade. MAJOR MOVERS: Among the notable gainers following their earnings reports were Oshkosh (OSK), up 12%, Pitney Bowes (PBI), up 11%, and Western Union (WU), up 9%. Shares of multi-level marketer Herbalife (HLF) also rose over 4% following its report in spite of new questions from Bill Ackman's Pershing Square, which has a very large and well documented short position in the stock. Among the noteworthy losers was upscale accessories maker Coach (COH), which fell more than 7% after the company reported mixed fourth quarter results, announced the departure of two senior executives, and agreed to sell its Reed Krakoff business. Also lower were shares of hospital chain Health Management Associates (HMA), which fell 11% after Community Health (CYH) agreed to buy the company for the equivalent of about $13.78 per share plus possible future considerations based on the outcome of certain legal matters. INDICES: Near noon, the Dow was up 10.37, or 0.07%, to 15,532.34; the Nasdaq was up 23.81, or 0.66%, to 3,622.95; and the S&P 500 was up 3.18, or 0.19%, to 1,688.51.
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January 26, 2016
09:12 EDTCOHCoach sees N.A. comps improving throughout the year
09:11 EDTCOHCoach says "now is the time" to explore selling interest in Hudson Yards JV
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09:05 EDTCOHCoach experiencing strengthening in Chinese tourist spending in Japan, Europe
Says confident company will return to topline growth this FY as well as positive N.A. comps by Q4. Says seeing Stuart Weitzman gain traction internationally, seeing growth in Asia. Says on target to end the year with 40% of doors in new modern luxury format. Says "bullish" about prospects for global men's business, still targeting $1B in sales in 2017. Says had "record" Black Friday sales in North America. Says in store traffic trends improved in North America in Q2, though competitive pressures intensified and company responded with higher level of promotions than expected. Says expects to renovate about 60 modern luxury concept stores this year in North America. Says Hong Kong, Macau continue to be impacted by "dramatic" slowdown in inbound tourist traffic. Says "optimistic" on prospects for this market over the long-term despite short-term volatility. Still sees Chinese tourist as "increasingly large part" of business globally and says has experienced strengthening in Chinese tourist spending, particularly in Japan and Europe. Comments taken from the Q2 earnings conference call. Coach is up 4.55% in pre-market trading.
09:01 EDTCOHCoach moves higher after earnings beat
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06:49 EDTCOHCoach backs FY16 revenue growth of low-single digits
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06:48 EDTCOHCoach reports Q2 Coach Brand sales $1.18B, Stuart Weitzman sales $94M
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06:46 EDTCOHCoach reports Q2 non-GAAP EPS 68c, consensus 67c
Reports Q2 revenue $1.27B vs. $1.22B last year.
January 25, 2016
14:29 EDTCOHNotable companies reporting before tomorrow's open
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13:29 EDTCOHCoach technical notes ahead of earnings, potential bearish pattern
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13:25 EDTPOTPotash volatility elevated into Q4 and outlook
Potash January weekly call option implied volatility is at 71, February is at 51; compared to its 52-week range of 17 to 45, suggesting large near term price movement into the expected release of Q4 results on January 26.
13:08 EDTPOT, MOSPotash slips as analyst casts doubt on dividend
Feed and fertilizer companies Mosaic (MOS) and Potash Corp. (POT) are both trading lower after being cut to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan, with the research firm calling into question Potash's dividend yield in the face of weak pricing for its staple commodity products. DIVIDEND DOUBT: As lower nitrogen and potash prices pressure cash flows, Potash Corp. looks reasonably likely to cut its dividend down to $1.00 per share from $1.52 during 2016, JPMorgan analyst Jeffrey Zekauskas argued Tuesday. Zekauskas clarified, however, that the fertizilier company has "wide discretion" as to whether it might actually continue to pay its current dividend, given its $3B in monetizable equity and a healthy balance sheet that could allow additional leverage. That said, the analyst's base case is that Potash will shrink the dividend amid the industry's cyclical downturn, leading him to lower his rating on the stock to Neutral and significantly cut his 2016 earnings predictions to $1.10 from $1.45. MOSAIC: Zekauskas also lowered his rating on Mosaic to Neutral while slashing his 2016 EPS estimates to $1.85 from $2.75, citing weaker prices for potash and phosphate. Unlike Potash Corp., Mosaic looks unlikely to cut its roughly 4.6% dividend yield, the analyst said. Zekauskas maintained that both companies remain attractive for longer-term value investors, saying he plans to review their ratings after Potash potentially rethinks its dividend and Wall Street financial estimates move lower. CEO COMMENTS: Speaking at the January 21 CIBC investor conference, Potash CEO Jochen Tilk stated, "We obviously believe -- and I'm sure you concur -- that the dividend is an important part of our company. And [when] we look at the cash ability that we have in 2016, the first goal is to be prudent with our balance sheet... More specifically to the dividend, I can't talk because we have our board meetings next week... It's on the agenda. It's a big discussion. We've done a lot of work in the analysis. We've done exactly what you say. We've done all the work that leads to the visibility to our balance sheet." PRICE ACTION: Shares of Potash Corp. have fallen roughly 6.7% to $15.02, while Mosaic is down 5.7% to $22.50.
11:24 EDTCOHOptions with increasing volume
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10:00 EDTMOS, POTOn The Fly: Analyst Downgrade Summary
Today's noteworthy downgrades include: American Eagle (AEO) downgraded to Hold from Buy at BB&T... American Express (AXP) downgraded on weak revenue outlook at Argus... Bristol-Myers (BMY) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital... Caterpillar (CAT) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman... Crestwood Equity (CEQP) downgraded to Neutral on potential distribution cut at Baird... Cummins (CMI) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citi... Federal Realty (FRT) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Evercore ISI... GKN PLC (GKNLY) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse... Galapagos NV (GLPG) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at GoldmanvHortonworks (HDP) downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer... International Flavors (IFF) downgraded on headwinds at Stifel... International Paper (IP) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citi... JPMorgan (JPM) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Nomura... KapStone (KS) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Macquarie... Mosaic (MOS) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan... NetSuite (N) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Stephens... ONEOK Partners (OKS) downgraded to Neutral at Baird... OvaScience (OVAS) downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer... Packaging Corp. (PKG) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citi... Potash (POT) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan... Power Solutions (PSIX) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray... Raymond James (RJF) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Nomura... Regeneron (REGN) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Chardan... SanDisk (SNDK) downgraded to Underperform from Outperform at CLSA... Toll Brothers (TOL) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at JMP Securities... Twitter (TWTR) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel... WPX Energy (WPX) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at Iberia... WestRock (WRK) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill... Whole Foods (WFM) downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital... Zurich Insurance (ZURVY) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Exane BNP Paribas.
09:19 EDTCOHCoach volatility elevated into Q4 and outlook
Coach January weekly call option implied volatility is at 76, February is at 44; compared to its 52-week range of 20 to 51, suggesting large near term price movement into the expected release of Q4 results on January 26.
09:08 EDTAETCalifornia seen asking for few remedies in health insurance mergers, CTFN says
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09:03 EDTMRKOn The Fly: Pre-market Movers
HIGHER: Tyco (TYC) and Johnson Controls (JCI), up 9% and 1%, respectively, after announcing a definitive merger agreement. Johnson Controls shareholders will own approximately 56% of the equity of the combined company, while current Tyco shareholders will own approximately 44%... SunEdison (SUNE), up 10% after the Wall Street Journal reported that the company is set to give David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital a seat on its board... Affimed Therapeutics (AFMD), up 26% after entering a clinical research collaboration in immuno-oncology with Merck (MRK). UP AFTER EARNINGS: McDonald's (MCD), up 3%... LOWER: Twitter (TWTR), down 5% after its CEO Jack Dorsey confirmed in a tweet last night that several executives are departing the company. Media reports also indicate that, as part of its shake-up, Twitter intends to bring in two new members to its board as soon as this week... OncoMed (OMED), down 38% after an independent data safety monitoring board remarked on several findings regarding futility of the company's Phase 2 ALPINE clinical trial... Medivation (MDVN), down 7% after FDA places investigational new drug application for MDV9300 on partial clinical hold... International Paper (IP), down 4.8%, Packaging Corp. (PKG), down 4.8%, WestRock (WRK), down 6%, after Pulp & Paper Week reduced January kraftliner and corrugated medium prices... Caterpillar (CAT), down 4% after Goldman cuts rating to sell... Regeneron (REGN), down 3% after downgraded at Chardan to sell. DOWN AFTER EARNINGS: Kimberly-Clark (KMB), down 2.5%.
08:23 EDTAETLeerink sees 'strong' buying opportunity in Managed Care space
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06:24 EDTMOS, POTMosaic downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan
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06:21 EDTPOTPotash downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan
JPMorgan analyst Jeffrey Zekauskas downgraded Potash (POT) to Neutral saying there is a "reasonable probability" that the company will reduce its dividend from $1.52 to $1.00 per share in 2016. The current dividend was set during a period of cyclical strength, unlike today's business landscape, Zekauskas tells investors in a research note. He cut his price target for Potash shares to $16 from $23.
05:19 EDTMRKAffimed Therapeutics enters into collaboration with Merck
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