Canadian Pacific sees full-year operating ratio in 'mid-sixties' for 2016 Financial expectations for the company's plan through to 2016 include: compound annual revenue growth of 4% - 7% off the 2012 base; a full-year operating ratio in the mid-sixties for 2016; cash flow before dividends of $900M-$1.4B in 2016; annual capital spending in the range of $1B-$1.1B over the period. Key Assumptions include: average fuel cost per gallon of $3.45 per U.S. gallon; Defined benefit pension expense of $140M-$150M through 2016; defined benefit pension contributions between $100M-$125M through 2015 increasing to $200M-$300M in 2016; a tax rate of 25%-27%; CP becomes fully cash taxable during the four-year period; Canadian to U.S. exchange rate at par.
Rail estimates need to come down further, says Citi Citi analyst Christian Wetherbee noted that consensus estimates in the rail sector for Q2 EPS have fallen an average of 8% since the firm moved below consensus last month, but believes the numbers have to come down further. Wetherbee cut his Q2 estimates by another 5%, lowered Q3 by 4% and cut his forecast for 2016 EPS by 3% and lowered price targets on stocks in the space by 6% on average. Wetherbee added that he believes Union Pacific (UNP) and Norfolk Southern (NSC) have the highest the pre-announcement risk in the group and lowered his targets on those stocks, as well as for Canadian National (CNI), Canadian Pacific (CP), CSX (CSC) and Kansas City Southern (KSU).