|November 9, 2012|
|08:40 EDT||AGU, CNH, CF, IPI, ADM, SYT, MOS, DE, MON, CMP, DD, POT, CPO, ANDE, BG||USDA raises forecast for corn ending stocks to 647M bushels|
In its latest World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates report, the USDA projected higher amounts of corn inventory. The USDA now projects ending stocks of 647M bushels, compared to its prior view of 619M. The season-average farm price for corn was projected 20c lower at the midpoint at $6.95-$8.25 per bushel. Also, the USDA's forecast for soybean production was increased 111M from last month to 2.971B bushels. Soybean ending stocks were projected 10M bushels higher at 140M. Reference Link
News For CPO;BG;ANDE;IPI;POT;DE;CF;DD;MOS;CNH;CMP;SYT;AGU;MON;ADM From The Last 14 Days
|September 25, 2015|
|07:33 EDT||MON||Global Interdependence Center to co-host a discussion|
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|05:51 EDT||DE||Barclays starts U.S. Machinery space with Negative view|
Barclays analyst Robert Wertheimer rolled out coverage of the U.S. Machinery space with a Negative view. Of the fifteen companies he initiated in the sector, only two are Overweight rated. Wertheimer started five names at Underweight, his firm's equivalent of a sell. Consensus estimates are too high across the board with revenue for this cycle already peaking for most of machinery, the analyst told investors last night in a research note. He sees a sharper downturn for North American trucks than the consensus expects, with another peak level eight years away. And the tractor supercycle is only two years in a downturn, while the prior two supercycles saw seven consecutive down years in machinery sales, Wertheimer adds. Allison Transmission (ALSN) and United Rentals (URI) are the analyst's Overweight-rated stocks in the sector. Deere (DE), CNH Industrial (CNHI), Cummins (CMI), PACCAR (PCAR) and Navistar (NAV) are his Underweight rated names. Wertheimer also started with Equal Weight ratings shares of Actuant (ATU), AGCO (AGCO), Caterpillar (CAT), Joy Global (JOY), Lincoln Electric (LECO), Manitowoc (MTW), Terex (TEX) and WABCO (WBC).
|September 24, 2015|
|16:24 EDT||DE||Deere initiated with an Underweight at Barclays|
|16:14 EDT||DE||On The Fly: Top stock stories for Thursday|
Stock futures were weak in early pre-market trading and the negative bias was cemented when Dow member Caterpillar (CAT) announced restructuring actions, including plans to cut as many as 10,000 jobs, and slashed its revenue guidance for this fiscal year and next. For most of the day the sellers remained in control, pushing the market down more than 1.5% at one point. In the afternoon, though, the buyers came in and began to pick up perceived bargains, paring the market's losses. The averages closed well off their worst levels, but still in the red, ahead of a much-anticipated speech this evening from Fed Chair Janet Yellen. ECONOMIC EVENTS: In the U.S., there were 267,000 initial jobless claims last week, versus expectations for 272,000 first-time claims. Durable goods orders for August declined 2.0%, versus expectations for a drop of 2.3%. When transportation items were removed, the core reading was breakeven, versus expectations for a rise of 0.1%. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index had a reading of -0.41, versus expectations of +0.24. New home sales jumped 5.7% in August to a 552,000 rate, versus expectations for a rise of 1.6% to a 515,000 rate. In Asia, Japan's stock market reopened for the first time since Friday and the Nikkei suffered a nearly 3% decline as it caught up to other global markets. The slide came despite Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe unveiling new economic targets, including a goal for a 20% increase in the target size of the Japanese economy to 600T yen, though he gave no timeframe for achieving this aspiration. Elsewhere, Norway and Taiwan both cut interest rates this morning. The Norges Bank lowered rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, while Taiwan cut its benchmark by 12.5 basis points to 1.75% in the nation's first lowering of rates since 2009. COMPANY NEWS: Shares of Caterpillar fell $4.40, or 6.27%, to $65.80 after the heavy machinery maker announced plans for job cuts and lowered its revenue guidance for this year and next. Caterpillar said that it would lay off 4,000-5,000 of its employees between now and the end of 2016 and could lay off up to 10,000 employees by 2018. Caterpillar cut its fiscal year 2015 revenue forecast by $1B and said its sees its fiscal year 2016 revenue to be 5% below this year, adding that it expects revenue declines in all three large segments next year. Before the news was announced, research firm Axiom initiated coverage of Caterpillar with a Sell rating and $28 price target, projecting that the company's calendar 2016 earnings will fall well below the Street consensus view. Other mining and agriculture equipment makers were also weaker following the Dow member's announcement, with Joy Global (JOY) falling 1% and Deere (DE) dropping 2.5%. MAJOR MOVERS: Among the notable gainers was STERIS (STE), which advanced $5.05, or 8.02%, to $68.00 after the Federal Trade Commission was denied an injunction to stop the company's proposed merger with Synergy. Also higher was Diamond Foods (DMND), which gained $2.98, or 9.72%, to $33.65 after dealReporter said the company has held talks with strategic suitors as it explores a potential sale. Among the noteworthy losers was Sientra (SIEN), which crashed $10.88, or 52.87%, to $9.70 after a U.K. regulator suspended the CE certificate for all medical devices made by Silimed, the company's contracted manufacturer. Also lower was Caesars (CZR), which fell 6.6% to $7.51 after Bloomberg reported that the company has reached an impasse in talks with certain junior bondholders and creditors involved in the ongoing restructuring of its operating unit. INDEXES: The Dow fell 78.57, or 0.48%, to 16,201.32, the Nasdaq dropped 18.27, or 0.38%, to 4,734.48, and the S&P 500 lost 6.52, or 0.34%, to 1,932.24.
|13:19 EDT||DE||On The Fly: Top stock stories at midday|
Stocks on Wall Street were sharply lower at midday, with each of the major indexes down more than 1%. Continued weakness in Asia and a lack of clarity regarding the Fed's rate decision last week has kept buyers on the sidelines while the sellers have had their way. Lowered guidance from Dow component Caterpillar (CAT) has weighed on the market in addition to some economic data points that were below expectations. ECONOMIC EVENTS: In the U.S., initial jobless claims were 267,000, versus expectations for 272,000 first-time claims. Durable goods orders for August declined 2.0%, versus expectations for a drop of 2.3%. When transportation items were removed, the core reading was breakeven, versus expectations for a rise of 0.1%. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index had a reading of -0.41, versus expectations of +0.24. New home sales jumped 5.7% in August to a 552,000 rate, versus expectations for a rise of 1.6% to a 515,000 rate. In Asia, Japan's stock market reopened for the first time since Friday and the Nikkei suffered a nearly 3% decline as it caught up to other global market trends in the week-to-date. The slide came despite Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe unveiling new economic targets, including a goal for a 20% increase in the target size of the Japanese economy to 600T yen, though he gave no timeframe for achieving this aspiration. Elsewhere, Norway and Taiwan both cut interest rates this morning. The Norges Bank lowered rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, while Taiwan cut its benchmark by 12.5 basis points to 1.75% in the nation's first lowering of rates since 2009. COMPANY NEWS: A slide in shares of Caterpillar weighed on the Dow Jones Industrial Average after the heavy machinery maker announced plans for job cuts and lowered its revenue guidance for this year and next. Caterpillar said that it would lay off 4,000-5,000 of its employees between now and the end of 2016 and could lay off up to 10,000 employees by 2018. Before the news was announced, research firm Axiom initiated coverage of Caterpillar with a Sell rating and $28 price target, which its shares were 5.7% closer to at midday following their swoon. Other mining and agriculture equipment makers, including Joy Global and Deere (DE), were also weaker following the Dow member's announcement. MAJOR MOVERS: Among the notable gainers was Arrowhead Research (ARWR), which rose 18% after disclosing top-line findings from the Heparc-2001 Phase 2a clinical study of ARC-520, its candidate for the treatment of chronic hepatitis B infection. Also higher was Hudson City Bancorp (HCBK), the parent company of Hudson City Savings Bank, which gained 3% after the bank, the Justice Department and CFPB reached a settlement to resolve allegations that the bank engaged in a pattern or practice of "redlining" predominantly Black and Hispanic neighborhoods in its residential mortgage lending practices. Notably, settling the allegations may pave the way for the bank to close out a proposed merger with M&T Bank (MTB). Among the noteworthy losers was Sientra (SIEN), which dropped 42% after disclosing that the U.K.'s Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency announced the suspension of the CE certificate for all medical devices made by Silimed, the company's contract manufacturer. Also lower were shares of Twitter (TWTR), which slid 4% after Citi cut its estimates below consensus and lowered its price target on the microblog service operator to $30. INDEXES: Near midday, the Dow was down 186.90, or 1.15%, to 16,092.99, the Nasdaq was down 56.64, or 1.19%, to 4,696.10, and the S&P 500 was down 20.18, or 1.04%, to 1,918.58.
|10:39 EDT||DE||Axiom says sell Caterpillar before company cuts guidance, jobs|
The shares of heavy machinery maker Caterpillar (CAT) are tumbling after the company reduced its revenue guidance and announced that it would lay off 4,000-5,000 of its employees between now and the end of 2016. The company said it could lay off up to 10,000 employees by 2018. Before the news was announced, research firm Axiom initiated coverage of Caterpillar with a Sell rating, saying that the company will probably face "operating income headwinds." WHAT'S NEW: Caterpillar reduced its fiscal 2015 revenue guidance to $48B from $49B. Analysts' consensus estimate was $48.8B. Additionally, the company expects its revenue to drop 5% in fiscal 2016 versus fiscal 2015. Caterpillar expects to reduce its annual total costs by $1.5B, the heavy machinery maker said, noting that it anticipates that it will pay about $2B in pre-tax charges related to the layoffs. ANALYST CALL: Axiom analyst Gordon Johnson II initiated Caterpillar with a Sell rating, saying that the company appears to carry "Russian roulette risk." The company's Resources and Energy and Transportation units generate the highest margins for Caterpillar but are currently struggling, Johnson said. Consequently, the company will probably "face operating income headwinds" as its revenue mix deteriorates, the analyst stated. In 2016, Caterpillar's earnings per share is likely to drop to $2.79, Johnson warned, versus analysts' consensus estimate of $4.53 prior to today's announcement. Moreover, after analyzing the SEC filings of Caterpillar's subsidiary, CAT Financial, Johnson believes that "the company is using debt to fund sales (where revenue is recognized) between itself and wholly-owned foreign (subsidiaries)." Citing a May 2013 letter between Caterpillar and the SEC, Johnson says that the agency has noticed this phenomenon, limiting Caterpillar's ability to employ similar methods during the current downturn. He set a $28 price target on the stock. OTHERS TO WATCH: Other heavy machinery makers include Komatsu (KMTUY), Deere (DE) and AGCO (AGCO). Like Caterpillar, Joy Global (JOY) makes mining equipment. Fluor (FLR) and KBR (KBR) build major infrastructure projects. PRICE ACTION: In morning trading, Caterpillar sank 6.7% to $65.53, while Joy Global and Deere each dropped about 4%.
|07:47 EDT||MON||Monsanto volatility elevated as shares trend lower|
Monsanto September weekly call option implied volatility is at 32, October is at 34, November is at 31; compared to its 52-week range of 14 to 34, suggesting large near term price movement.
|07:20 EDT||POT||Potash volatility increases as shares trend lower|
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|06:45 EDT||MON, SYT||Monsanto plans future in big data, Reuters reports|
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|September 23, 2015|
|15:44 EDT||MON, MOS||52-week low stocks with active options: WYNN SNCR PX MON MOS DECK|
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|09:57 EDT||MON||Monsanto initiated with an Underperform at Bernstein|
|09:18 EDT||DD||Paulson Institute and CCPIT to co-host U.S.-China Business Roundtable|
The Paulson Institute and the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT) provide an opportunity for U.S. and Chinese business leaders to discuss issues facing the two countries in a roundtable being held in Seattle, Washington on September 23.
|08:40 EDT||MON||Monsanto reinstated with a Neutral at Goldman|
|07:47 EDT||MOS, POT||JPMorgan cuts targets for Mosaic and Potash but still sees value|
JPMorgan analyst Jeffrey Zekauskas says weakening demand and price trends for potash does not bode well for the China and India contracts for 2016. The analyst reduced his earnings expectations for Potash (POT) and Mosaic (MOS), but keeps Overweight ratings on both citing their "value characteristics." He cut his price target for Potash to $26 from $34 and for Mosaic to $40 from $52.
|06:40 EDT||POT||K+S investors urge company to reconsider Potash takeover, WSJ reports|
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|September 22, 2015|
|16:36 EDT||AGU, MOS, POT||On The Fly: Top stock stories for Tuesday|
Stocks on Wall Street began the session sharply lower and remained that way throughout the session. There was little in the way of buying as each of the major equity indexes slid over 1% and the market internals were decidedly negative. The auto industry and biotech sector were both notably weak, after the French government called for an investigation into the entire auto industry in the wake of the Volkswagen (VLKAY) emissions scandal and Democratic Presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton presented a plan to limit the cost of drugs for consumers. ECONOMIC EVENTS: In the U.S., the FHFA home price index rose 0.6% to 224.5 in July, which was better than the 0.4% rise that was expected. The Richmond Fed factory index fell to -5 in September, versus the reading of 2 that was expected. In Asia, the Asian Development Bank cut its growth forecast for the region, citing a weaker outlook for China and India and a delayed recovery in the world's advanced economies. The bank now sees the Chinese economy growing 6.8% this year and 6.7% next year, down from its previous forecasts of 7.2% and 7%, respectively. COMPANY NEWS: Lloyd Blankfein, Goldman Sachs (GS) Chairman and CEO, disclosed that he was diagnosed with lymphoma. "Fortunately, my form of lymphoma is highly curable and my doctors' and my own expectation is that I will be cured," Blankfein stated in an open letter that was shared by the bank... Bank of America (BAC) shareholders approved a proposal to ratify the 2014 amendments to the company's bylaws that permitted the board of directors to determine its leadership structure, meaning Brian Moynihan can retain his dual role as both Chairman and CEO... Shares of several fertilizer companies slid after Mosaic (MOS) announced it will reduce its potash production in response to current crop nutrient market conditions, primarily related to delayed fertilizer purchases in Brazil and North America. Shares of Mosaic finished the day down 7% at $33.87 following last night's announcement, while Potash (POT) fell 6.5% and Agrium (AGU) dropped 3.5%. MAJOR MOVERS: Among the notable gainers was Ashland (ASH), which advanced $2.78, or 2.6%, to $108.50 after announcing it will proceed with a plan to separate into two independent, publicly traded companies. Also higher was Weatherford (WFT), which gained 90c, or 10.7%, to $9.31 after cancelling plans for a public share offering, after which research firms Jefferies and Iberia both reiterated Buy-equivalent ratings on the stock. Among the noteworthy losers were Office Depot (ODP) and Staples (SPLS), which declined a respective 4% and 5.8% after the New York Post quoted a source as saying the FTC may move to block their merger plan. Also lower was Groupon (GRPN), which slipped 2.2% to $4.08 after announcing plans to cut 1,100 jobs related primarily to its international operations. ConAgra (CAG), Carnival (CCL), and CarMax (KMX) fell 7%, 5.5%, and 4.65%, respectively, following their quarterly earnings reports. INDEXES: The Dow fell 179.72, or 1.09%, to 16,330.47, the Nasdaq lost 72.23, or 1.5%, to 4,756.72, and the S&P 500 dropped 24.23, or 1.23%, to 1,942.74.
|11:41 EDT||AGU, IPI, POT, MOS||Fertilizer shares slide after Mosaic announces production cuts|
Shares of fertilizer companies Potash (POT), Agrium (AGU) and Intrepid Potash (IPI) are sliding after peer Mosaic Company (MOS) announced it will reduce its potash production. WHAT'S NEW: Mosaic said in a press release yesterday that it will reduce its potash production in response to current crop nutrient market conditions, primarily related to delayed fertilizer purchases in Brazil and North America. The company added that since it announced guidance in August, domestic and international crop nutrient markets have softened. Currency volatility, lower grain and oilseed prices, political and economic uncertainty, as well as global equity market declines have adversely impacted market sentiment, according to Mosaic. Joc O'Rourke, Mosaic's chief executive officer, pointed out that the long-term positive outlook for crop nutrient demand is still intact, "but the industry faces some near-term challenges in the current environment." O'Rourke said the company will remain focused on looking for opportunities to create shareholder value which includes managing production levels to demand and controlling costs. WHAT'S NOTABLE: Mosaic noted that the reduced production is expected to impact per unit costs and segment margins. The company now sees third quarter phosphate volumes at the low end of the previously communicated range of 2.1M-2.4M tons, while the average DAP selling price is expected to be in the upper half of the company's previously provided range of $435-$455 per ton. The phosphates segment margin rate is expected to be in the low 20% range as previously guided, Mosaic said. Potash volumes are expected to be in the bottom half of the previously announced 1.6M-$2M ton range and the MOP average selling price is expected to be in the bottom half of the $260-$280 per ton range. As a result of these developments and lower operating rates, Mosaic now expects the potash segment gross margin rate to be in the high teens, compared to prior guidance of the low 20% range. ANALYST TAKE: In a note to investors this morning, Canaccord said it continues to prefer Agrium in the fertilizer space, citing its retail operations, its nitrogen sales to North America, volume growth in the wholesale business, free cash flow and valuation. Canaccord reiterated its Buy rating on Agrium, but lowered its price target to $112 from $115. PRICE ACTION: Shares of Mosaic fell 7.16% to $33.83 in late morning trading. Industry peers are also lower, with Agrium down 5.34%, Potash dropping 7% and Intrepid Potash falling 5.39%.
|10:00 EDT||DD||On The Fly: Analyst Upgrade Summary|
Today's noteworthy upgrades include: Antero Midstream (AM) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse... China Southern Airlines (ZNH) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Macquarie... DuPont (DD) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citi... Entergy (ETR) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays... HSBC (HSBC) upgraded to Conviction Buy from Buy at Goldman... KLA-Tencor (KLAC) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Nomura... Total (TOT) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Societe Generale.
|07:49 EDT||MOS, AGU, POT||Agrium preferred company in fertilizer space, says Canaccord|
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|05:44 EDT||DD||DuPont upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citi|
Citi analyst P.J. Juvekar upgraded DuPont to Buy saying the company has "tremendous value creation levers" to pull following the 30% pullback in shares year-to-date. Options available to management include additional cost cuts, returning more cash to shareholders, potentially splitting the company, and acquisitions, Juvekar tells investors in a research note. He raised his price target for shares to $63 from $58.