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April 19, 2013
11:22 EDTCATEarnings Preview: Caterpillar sees Q1 sales, profit down from prior year
Caterpillar (CAT) is expected to report first quarter earnings on Monday, April 22 before the market open with a conference call scheduled for 11:00 am ET. Caterpillar is a manufacturer of mining and construction equipment. EXPECTATIONS: Analysts are looking for earnings per share of $1.42 on revenue of $13.72B, according to First Call. The consensus range for EPS is $1.20-$1.70 on revenue of $12.53B-$14.65B. LAST QUARTER: Caterpillar reported fourth quarter EPS of $1.04 against estimates for $1.70, though its results included a charge of $580M, or 87c per share. Q4 revenue came in at $16.08B against estimates for $16.12B. In its Q4 report, the company forecast Q1 sales and profit significantly lower on a year-over-year basis. Management said, “While we are not providing a specific sales and profit outlook for 1Q13, we are expecting that they are likely to be significantly lower than 1Q12. The middle of our full-year outlook for sales is about $2B below 2012 levels. We expect that revenue will decline more than $2B in 1Q13 compared with 1Q12. Much of the expected decline in Q1 sales is a result of the continuation of reduced production as dealers are expected to continue to lower their new machine inventories. We expect that dealer inventory reductions will be negative to sales in 1Q13, while in 1Q12 dealers increased inventory which benefited Caterpillar. Profit is also expected to be significantly lower in 1Q13 versus 1Q12—a result of lower expected sales and the negative cost impact of continuing low production levels and declining inventory.” STREET RESEARCH: Street research has been mixed in the weeks leading up to Caterpillar's Q1 earnings report. Sentiment was positive early in the quarter, but turned negative over the past month. On January 29, CLSA upgraded Caterpillar to a Buy from Outperform and raised its price target to $115 from $105. Standpoint Research initiated the shares with a Buy rating and a price target of $105 on March 20. On April 3, Goldman downgraded Caterpillar to a Neutral from a Buy, citing a reduced outlook for iron ore prices and mining equipment capital expenditures. The firm no longer saw upside to consensus estimates given the oversupplied commodity environment and lowered their price target to $101 from $116. PRICE ACTION: Caterpillar’s shares have traded approximately 17% lower since Q4’s results were released in late January. In late morning trading ahead of Monday's Q1 report, Caterpillar’s shares are up 0.2%.
News For CAT From The Last 14 Days
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October 6, 2015
11:26 EDTCATCaterpillar October calls active
Caterpillar October weekly 70 and 70.5 calls are active on total call volume of 18K contracts (7K puts) on takeover chatter. October weekly call option implied volatility is at 34, October is at 31, November is at 32; compared to its 52-week range of 15 to 41. Active call volume suggests traders taking positions for upside price movement.
September 30, 2015
16:26 EDTCATCaterpillar announces price action of 0%-2% worldwide on most machines
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September 28, 2015
07:00 EDTCATCaterpillar shares attractive after selloff, says Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank analyst Vishal Shah says that after dropping 7% since the 2015 guidance cut, shares of Caterpillar are attractive. Earnings per share will tough at $3.75 in 2016 and rebound to $4.10 in 2017, Shah tells investors in a research note. He keeps a Buy rating on the stock with an $80 price target.

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