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January 10, 2014
10:39 EDTTLYS, APP, GPS, AEO, ANFAbercrombie & Fitch rallies after raising full year profit view
Shares of casual apparel retailer Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) are rallying after the company raised its full year adjusted profit view. WHAT'S NEW: Last night, Abercrombie & Fitch reported its fourth quarter comparable sales for the nine weeks ended January 4, including direct-to-consumer sales, decreased 6%. However, based on higher than expected sales for the fourth quarter-to-date, and ongoing cost reduction efforts, the company raised its full year adjusted earnings per share view to $1.55-$1.65 from its prior guidance of $1.40-$1.50. The consensus forecast of analysts prior to the company update was $1.47. ANALYST REACTION: This morning, analyst commentary was positive on A&F. Research firm Janney Capital upgraded Abercrombie to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $49. Another firm, Wells Fargo, increased its price target on the stock to $37-$39 from $33-$36, but kept a Market Perform rating on the shares. Brean Capital said it remained a buyer of Abercrombie & Fitch’s shares. Brean rates the shares a Buy with a $48 price target. PRICE ACTION: In early trading, Abercrombie & Fitch rose $3.86, or 11.6%, to $37.07 on twice its average daily trading volume. However, over the past twelve months, the shares are down about 24%. OTHERS TO WATCH: Abercrombie’s competitors include American Eagle Outfitters (AEO), American Apparel (APP), and Tilly’s (TLYS). Another Abercrombie competitor, The Gap (GPS), reported last night that its comparable sales in the months of November and December grew 1% and that, given the holiday performance, the company is "comfortable" delivering at the high end of its prior full-year earnings per share guidance range. Gap shares are up 0.8% to $39.75 after its own holiday sales update.
News For ANF;AEO;GPS;APP;TLYS From The Last 14 Days
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November 20, 2015
08:16 EDTANFAbercrombie & Fitch sees Q4 gross margin rate approximately flat y/y
Sees continued adverse effects from foreign currency exchange rates. Sees operating expense to be roughly flat from last year. Guidance taken from slides to be presented on Q3 earnings conference call.
07:40 EDTANFAbercrombie & Fitch sees Q4 SSS approximately flat
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07:39 EDTANFAbercrombie & Fitch reports Q3 adj. EPS 48c, may not compare to consensus 22c
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November 19, 2015
19:19 EDTGPSOn The Fly: After Hours Movers
UP AFTER EARNINGS: Intuit (INTU), up 8.1%... Ross Stores (ROST), up 8.2%. ALSO HIGHER: Cabela's (CAB), up 7.5% after Bloomberg reported that the company is receiving takeover interest... Nike (NKE), up 3.4% after announcing a $12B repurchase program, a two-for-one stock split, and that it will raise its dividend... Centene (CNC), up 2.4% after reiterating its fiscal 2015 earnings per share guidance... Universal Insurance (UVE), up 2.7% after announcing a new $10M share repurchase program. DOWN AFTER EARNINGS: Nimble Storage (NMBL), down 36.9%... Mentor Graphics (MENT), down 26.2%... Workday (WDAY), down 5.5%... Wesco Aircraft (WAIR), down 1.4%... Williams-Sonoma (WSM), down 3.7%... Zoe's Kitchen (ZOES), down 3.6%... Momo (MOMO), down 3.3%... Autodesk (ADSK), down 1%... Gap (GPS), down marginally.
16:27 EDTGPSGap lowers FY15 adjusted EPS view to $2.38-$2.42 from $2.75-$2.80
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16:24 EDTGPSGap continues to see FY15 CapEx approximately $800M
16:23 EDTGPSGap reports Q3 SSS down 2%
Gap's comparable sales for the third quarter were down 2% versus a 2% decrease last year. Comparable sales by global brand for the third quarter were as follows: Gap Global: negative 4% versus negative 5% last year; Banana Republic Global: negative 12% versus flat last year; Old Navy Global: positive 4% versus positive 1% last year.
16:21 EDTGPSGap reports Q3 adjusted EPS 63c, consensus 63c
Reports Q3 revenue $3.86B, consensus $3.9B. Gap Inc.'s comparable sales for the third quarter of fiscal year 2015 were down 2% versus a 2% decrease last year.
15:24 EDTANFNotable companies reporting before tomorrow's open
Notable companies reporting before tomorrow's market open, with earnings consensus, include Foot Locker (FL), consensus 94c... Sirona Dental (SIRO), consensus $1.10... Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), consensus 22c... Hibbett Sport (HIBB), consensus 68c.
15:21 EDTGPSNotable companies reporting after market close
Notable companies reporting after the market close, with earnings consensus, include Intuit (INTU), consensus (4c)... Ross Stores (ROST), consensus (50c)... Workday (WDAY), consensus (4c)... Autodesk (ADSK), consensus 8c... Gap (GPS), consensus 63c... Splunk (SPLK), consensus 1c... Williams-Sonoma (WSM), consensus 72c... Mentor Graphics (MENT), consensus 29c.
14:51 EDTANFAbercrombie & Fitch November 19 straddle priced for 12% movement into Q3
14:26 EDTANFAbercrombie & Fitch technical comments ahead of earnings
The shares have been trading in a sideways but wide range since March of this year. Shares ahead of earnings are currently trading below an important support level, $20, which has held for most of this sideways trading period. A move back above $20 on good news would be a technical positive that could see the highs of the recent range tested. The first resistance level of significance is at the 30-day moving average at $20.93. The 30-day has nearly flattened out in recent months, bisecting the range. Next resistance above the 30-day would be at $21.68, $22.25, and $23.25. If the news is bearish, the shares could drift to the low end of the range. First support would be at $18.74. Below that support, additional downside objectives may be at $17.60 and $16.56. The 52-week low is at $15.42.
14:08 EDTGPSGap technical comments ahead of earnings
The shares are trading near multi-year lows ahead of earnings, with a strong downtrend bias. If the news continues to be bearish, the downtrend is likely to extend. Support levels to watch as potential downside objectives would be at $24.41, $22.58, and $21.17. If the news is instead a bullish surprise, the first significant resistance level would be at the 30-day moving average which was last at $26.86. A move above the 30-day would break the current downtrend leg. Next resistance levels would be at $28.37 and then at $29.15.
13:29 EDTANFEarnings Watch: Abercrombie reports amid ongoing turnaround, CEO search
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) is scheduled to report third quarter earnings before the market open on Friday, November 20 with a conference call scheduled for 8:30 am ET. Abercrombie & Fitch is a retailer of casual apparel for men, women and kids. EXPECTATIONS: Analysts are looking for earnings per share of 22c on revenue of $864.65M, according to First Call. The consensus range for EPS is 7c-44c on revenue of $832.7M-$897M. LAST QUARTER: On August 26, Abercrombie & Fitch reported second quarter adjusted EPS of 12c on revenue of $817.8M, beating consensus estimates of (4c) and $811.46M, respectively. The company added that same store sales for Q2 were down 4% year over year. Abercrombie & Fitch also said that it expected same store sales trends to improve in the second half of the year, skewed towards the fourth quarter. NEWS: The company said in its Q2 earnings release that it planned to open 15 full-price stores in fiscal 2015 in China, Japan, and the Middle East, six full price stores in North America, and ten new outlet stores in the U.S. The retailer also said that it expected to close roughly 60 stores in the U.S. during the fiscal year through natural lease expirations. On its Q2 conference call, Abercrombie & Fitch said that its board was "deeply engaged" in its search for a new chief executive officer and that someone will be appointed to the role "in due time." The company added on the call that it was still making adjustments to prices at the Abercrombie brand. STREET RESEARCH: On August 27, Stifel upgraded Abercrombie to Buy from Hold and maintained a $24 price target following the company's upbeat Q2 results. A day later, RBC Capital upgraded the company's stock to Sector Perform from Underperform and raised its price target to $20 from $17, saying that the fundamentals of the Hollister unit are improving while revenue was showing signs of rebounding. On September 24, Standpoint Research downgraded Abercrombie & Fitch to Hold from Buy. On October 19, Wunderlich upgraded the company's shares to Hold from Sell with a $21 price target, saying that there were signs of a business turnaround. On November 19, Susquehanna reiterated a Positive rating and $26 price target on the retailer's stock, saying it believes the company is well positioned for the holiday season. PRICE ACTION: Abercrombie & Fitch shares are flat at $19.75 in afternoon trading ahead of tomorrow's earnings report. The stock is up about 12.5% over the past three months.
08:38 EDTANFAbercrombie & Fitch well positioned for holidays, says Susquehanna
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November 18, 2015
05:41 EDTGPSGap implied volatility of 43 at upper end of index mean range
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November 17, 2015
14:46 EDTANFAbercrombie & Fitch volatility elevated into Q3 and outlook
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10:42 EDTGPSGap volatility elevated into Q3 and outlook
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10:20 EDTAEOOptions with increasing implied volatility
Options with increasing implied volatility: SGMS HZNP CSC ULTA RH BURL GME AEO BBRY TIF
05:36 EDTGPSGap implied volatility of 42 at upper end of index mean range
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