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Stock Market & Financial Investment News

News Breaks
April 7, 2014
12:38 EDTAAEarnings Preview: Alcoa shares near 52-week high ahead of Q1 report
Alcoa (AA) is scheduled to report first quarter earnings after the close on Tuesday, April 8, with a conference call scheduled for 5:00 pm ET. Alcoa is a global manufacturer of aluminum products. EXPECTATIONS: Analysts are looking for EPS of 5c on revenue of $5.56B, according to First Call. The consensus range for EPS is 0c-8c on revenue of $5.39B-$5.7B. LAST QUARTER: Alcoa reported fourth quarter adjusted EPS of 4c against estimates for 6c on revenue of $5.6B against estimates for $5.38B. The company forecast 2014 global aluminum demand growth of 7%. CEO Klaus Kleinfeld said, "we put a number of legacy matters behind us, clearing a path for Alcoa’s continued transformation in 2014." On the company's Q4 earnings conference call, management targeted $850M of additional year-over-year productivity gains in 2014. This was expected to be achieved by overhead cost reductions, procurement savings, and process productivity. For 2014, the company said it expects to build value-add with growth capital of $500M, an investment in its Saudi JV of $125M, and management of sustaining capital of $750M. Generating positive free cash flow will continue to be the target for 2014, and the company expects to manage its capital structure to a debt to capital ratio in the range of 30%-35% by the end of 2014. The company's initial outlook for the 2014 Alumina supply-demand situation is that the market will be in surplus of just under 2M metric tons or roughly 2% of the global market. STREET RESEARCH: Street research has been mixed in the weeks leading up to Alcoa's Q1 earnings report. On January 21, JP Morgan upgraded Alcoa to Overweight from Neutral, citing the tightening aluminum markets and increasing regional aluminum premiums. The firm raised its price target for Alcoa to $15 from $9. On March 14, Sterne Agee initiated Alcoa with a Buy rating and $15 price target. Conversely, on March 6, Standpoint Research downgraded Alcoa to Hold from Buy. On April 2, Nomura said there was significant downside risk to Alcoa's 2014 earnings estimates given the fall in LME aluminum prices and GRP margin pressures in Europe. The firm lowered Alcoa's FY14 EPS view to 14c from 28c, and FY15 EPS view to 31c from $1.32. It reiterated its Neutral rating and $8 price target on the shares. PRICE ACTION: Despite the company's worse than expected Q4 profit, Alcoa shares have rallied approximately 18% over the past 90 days, touching a 52-week high of $13.18 in early April. Over the past twelve months, the stock is up over 51%. In early afternoon trading ahead of tomorrow's Q1 report, Alcoa shares are down just over 1%.
News For AA From The Last 14 Days
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July 2, 2015
13:36 EDTAAOn The Fly: Technical notes on earnings season calendar effects
The doldrums have persisted without a great deal of index volatility heading into Q2 earnings season. Until we are into the bulk of the season, we aren't likely to have sufficient catalysts to move far, barring an exogenous event. What traders need to be aware of is how compressed this earnings season really is. The increased flow of earnings news within a shorter span could lead to some bigger moves. How short? The old school way of determining the bounds of earnings season starts with Alcoa (AA) and ends with Cisco (CSCO). This time around, Alcoa is on July 8 and Cisco is on August 12, putting the season at just over a month in calendar time. Contrast this with Q4 earnings season, which can take nearly seven weeks in some cases. Another factor to be aware of: in the first week of earnings this season, there are just a relative handful of S&P 500 names reporting. By the time Cisco reports, the bulk will be done. We really are looking at more like a three week window. If the direction of earnings surprises are consistent, the market might see its first real push up or down that breaks the tight range with solid momentum. If not, market watchers are likely to see a spate of volatility in a market that has become used to flatter conditions, where volatility has been better for a sale. Choppy earnings could make that strategy more problematic. Planning out ahead is critically important too, as the day of the week can matter. Wednesdays and Thursdays tend to be the peak days for reports, making them more subject to market gyrations. Friday afternoons tend to be a day in which companies with genuinely bad news try to sneak it out. Use the forthcoming holiday wisely; we may be in for a bumpier ride ahead.
July 1, 2015
07:25 EDTAA Alcoa July volatility increases into Q2 and outlook
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June 30, 2015
08:34 EDTAAAlcoa to close Pocos smelter in Brazil
Alcoa announced that it will permanently close its Poços de Caldas primary aluminum smelter in Brazil on June 30, 2015. The smelter has been curtailed since May 2014 and the underlying market conditions that led to the curtailment have not improved. “The closure of the Poços smelter permanently removes a high-cost smelting facility from the Alcoa system and is another step in creating a more profitable Primary Metals business,” said Alcoa Global Primary Products President Bob Wilt. Once the Poços smelter is closed, Alcoa’s total global smelting capacity will be reduced by 96,000 metric tons, to 3.4 million metric tons. The Poços mine, refinery, aluminum powder plant and casthouse will continue normal operations. As a result of the closure, Alcoa expects to record restructuring-related charges in second quarter 2015 between $100M-$110M after-tax, or 8c-9c per share, of which approximately 60 percent is non-cash.
June 29, 2015
09:04 EDTAAAlcoa estimates cut due to low regional premiums at Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley lowered Alcoa 2015-17 EBITDA estimates to reflect declines in regional premiums. The firm lowered Q2 EPS to 21c from 22, below consensus of 23c, but sees drivers in place for a 2H recovery in shares. Morgan Stanley said all-in aluminum prices, including regional premiums, are near six year lows, and expects upstream performance to near a trough at current prices, and for earnings to bottom in Q3. The firm rates shares an Overweight with a lowered price target of $16.
07:40 EDTAAAlcoa estimates lowered below consensus at Stifel
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June 24, 2015
08:18 EDTAAAlcoa volatility flat into Q2 and outlook
Alcoa July call option implied volatility is at 28, August is at 26, October is 27; compared to its 52-week range of 23 to 48, suggesting non-directional price movement into the expected release of Q2 results after the market close on July 8.
June 22, 2015
15:21 EDTAAAlcoa slides after analyst downgrades shares due to lack of catalysts
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10:00 EDTAAOn The Fly: Analyst Downgrade Summary
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08:16 EDTAAAlcoa downgraded on lack of catalysts, risk/reward at Sterne Agee CRT
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06:24 EDTAAAlcoa downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Sterne Agee CRT

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